Tarasenko has sucked? I'm sorry but dude has been playing at his career pace the entire year, and is on pace to score more than points with Similar +/- as Giroux last year while pacing higher than him points wise. So has Tarasenko sucked his entire career now as well?
Tarasenko Career 640games 262g 291a 553p
Tarasenko career pace over 82 games
34g 37a 71p
Tarasenko 10g 19a 29p 34 games (25g 46a 71p pace)
Giroux 18g 24a 42p 57 games (26g 35a 61p pace)
Giroux returned a 1st, prospect, and a 3rd while dictating where he was going. Zero reason to sell low on Tarasenko a 1st+prospect should be the minimum he should get.
Reported ask from Army for RoR is also a 1st+prospect+3rd. Zero Chances he drops both the prospect and 3rd from the asking price.
I agree with you that Tarasenko hasn't 'sucked' this year. Not even close. But he hasn't been as good as he was last year and he hasn't been as good as he was before his shoulder injuries. The points production has been there, but the shot isn't the same (as his prime or even last year). He's changes his game and improved his decision making with the puck to compensate, which has led to more assists. He should still have good value and he definitely hasn't sucked.
With that said, if we're using Giroux as a comp then there are some things to take into consideration. For one, Giroux can play center and is elite at the dot. He led Philly in faceoff wins for each of the 3 seasons preceding the trade. He's also considered much better off the puck than Tarasenko. He's put up very, very good possession numbers for years and did that without getting heavily offensive usage. Tarasenko is exclusively a winger and he isn't anything close to as good defensively. I think the rest of Giroux's game and his ability to play center and win key faceoffs outweighs the assist gap.
Giroux was the consensus top forward available at last year's deadline and there wasn't much other top end talent available. The market may shrink as we get closer to the deadline, but Tarasenko isn't going to be the top talent available at this deadline. Horvat, Meier, Kane, and ROR are all reportedly available, so teams willing to deal a 1st +prospect have lots of options. I don't think Tarasenko's value is on the same level as Giroux's was as a rental.
Additionally, there is some important context to the '1st, prospect, 3rd' package that Giroux returned. Most importantly, the 1st rounder is in 2024 (with a chance of sliding to 2025 if Florida picks top 10 in 2024). That means that Philly has to wait 2 and potentially 3 years before using the pick. Additionally, the prospect was a (just turned) 23 year old who had struggled to excel beyond a bottom 6 role in his 90 NHL games. Tiippett absolutely had decent value as a developing player, but I don't think he was a grade A guy. They also gave up a 2024 5th, which is fairly inconsequential, but it does chip away at that value of the 3rd.
It has been widely discussed that 1st round picks in this draft carry more value than most years. Getting a 2023 1st for Tarasenko would be a higher value asset than a 2024/2025 1st in a vacuum. Additionally, I think that this organization wants a quick turnaround more than a long rebuild, so delaying the draft pick 2-3 years is likely a nonstarter.
I think there is a pretty strong chance that Army can't find a buyer for Tarasenko if his minimum return is a 2023 1st + prospect. If my choices are a 2023 1st or a 2024 (and potentially 2025) 1st and a middling prospect, then I'm taking the 2023 1st. I'd have to really like the available prospect in order to defer the pick to a future draft. If it is just a lottery ticket or a decent floor (but low ceiling) 22 year old, then I'm taking the 2023 1st.
Edit: Comps to prior years aside, I support a risk-averse approach to selling 90 and 91. I think there is a decent chance that the bottom falls out of the trade market and it becomes a ludicrously good buyer's market. There are at least 5 teams who have fully embraced the race to the bottom and another several teams that might go that direction. The buyers have never been more cap-strapped than they are this season and I can't recall a year with this much truly top end forward talent available to choose from. And on top of all that, the 2023 draft is deep and teams appear to value their late 1sts higher than most seasons. If a 1st is on the table, I see the value in locking that asset in to prevent getting less on deadline day if people start panic-selling and devaluing the entire market.
