The point wasn't to suggestion because his brother returned X, Tkachuk will return X.
The situations are similar in that they are both "unicorn" type players who teams will find a way to acquire, even if they shouldn't have the flexibility to do it. The reason I pointed that out, is because it's absurd to say that a team will trade a player with an 8.XXM cap hit and multiple years left in season. It's usually very difficult and requires a lot of leg work.
I'm suggesting that Staios probably has already done that leg work, because he knows Tkachuk's NMC is coming up and that he needs to know what the market might have been for him in July 2025, and that if things change to where they want to move him earlier, teams aren't going to tell him to wait until the summer, they will make a hockey trade and move out what was previously a core piece because acquiring Tkachuk would be seen as a king making move.
No other GM is going to believe Tkachuk is the problem. We're the Senators. They are going to be salivating at the idea that they can get Tkachuk out of Ottawa because fortunately for them, he was drafted to a franchise that is still trying to repair the dysfunction from their previous ownership.
With that said, if you're Staios and you can get a similar package to what you expect to be on the table in the summer, you do it now. Not because whatever comes back necessarily makes the team better on paper, but because whatever norms they have in the room need to be completely decimated, and trading Tkachuk is like putting a nuke through the room. If they still suck, well they were going to suck anyways and Tkachuk was going to get traded in the summer for a similar package - but there is always the chance that whatever storming comes from moving Tkachuk and whoever else they can get out the door helps them get over whatever psychological hump the team had and possibly make the playoffs.
I highly doubt they want to rebuild. This market can't handle that. If Tkachuk is traded, it will either be something closer to 1 for 1 or 1 for 2 for name players, or it will be something everybody hates where we get three Michael Jensens back who technically help us get deeper on paper, but nobody wants to move their franchise power forward for 2nd liners or top 4 defensemen.