Prospect Info: 2022 - 1st OA] Juraj Slafkovsky (LW) Part 4

[BaseballCoach]

I genuinely didn’t realize or expect Laval to be rubbish. I got word from a friend who goes to games and I saw it too many times here to ignore, around the board criticism of every facet there. So, in response, I adjusted my position. As one should.

Over summer I mostly espoused that he should return to Liiga. AHL was my second choice given they suggested he would be in Montreal for the season’s duration. I’ll be honest and say I never really considered CHL but took that position as preferred over rushing him to the NHL.

OK, but now it is obvious that OHL would haven been unnecessary, Liiga would have delayed the adjustment to the smaller ice surface, and the AHL is not the idyllic environment we may have hoped for.

So I'm glad you are open-minded and have changed your position. Slaf has not been rushed to the NHL. His status is normal given NHL history and his current abilities, as your own analysis confirms.

 

[cphabs]

He server Anderson's 5 minute penalty after Andy got a game misconduct on top.

Thanks! Saw that.

 

[Nedved]

I'm mixed with Slafkovsky. On the one hand, he clearly can play at the nhl level but, on the other hand, he's still so raw, and he looks like he's going to have his head knocked off every night.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Fair enough, we're just of different opinions of Anderson's offensive abilities. I don't think he gets Monahan and Slaf going offensively, and I think Dvorak and Evan's are the best hope with the current forward corps.

I think Anderson on a 3rd line is the best role for him. I also think Evan's MIGHT be able to get Anderson and Gallagher going offensively than Dvorak can. More speed in transition.

Maybe, but Dvorak on the 2nd line forces either himself or Slafkovsky to the wrong wing.

Maybe Dvorak with Suzuki and Caufield would be ok, and a second line of Slaf-Monahan-Dach could really contribute and balance out the scoring.

Anderson-Evans-Gallagher/Armia is not the greatest third line, but if we can create a good first and second line, perhaps that is the best we can hope for in the first year of the rebuild.

In two years, our 3rd line could be Farrell-Beck-Mesar and Evans could be back on the 4th as a good youngish vet.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

How would Laval be great for him? Laval is a sh*t show. He doesn't even have Mesar there to play C.

Mesar is irrelevant to this question and Laval is part of what may be the best developmental league in the world. Maybe Laval is better with Slafkovsky....maybe it is too early to label them a sh*t show?

I think he would be just fine with Simoneau and Ylonen as linemates in the AHL. Who cares what the other lines are doing as long as his experience on the ice is positive.

That being said, he has shown consistent improvement so why send him down if he is progressing. I support keeping him up right now but if he hits a wall and loses confidence the situation in Laval isn't as bad as you may fear it is. He is already being enormously sheltered by playing against fringe/bottom line NHLers much of the time so playing against top AHLers won't be that much of a drop off but maybe enough to allow him to gain confidence by incorporating more dynamic playmaking habits into his game and testing/honing them against pro's in the North American game. It would also provide an opportunity to gain a ton of PP experience that he is missing out on in the NHL.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Imo he's doing pretty much what KK did, look ok enough. And we all know how that went. Ahl or at the very least bump him up of the damn 4th line

Actually, how Slaf is playing shows me even more how I was wrong about KK belonging here. Slaf wins more board battles, gets his shot off faster, and hustles more on the backcheck.

 

[Andy]

This is where I’m at but on the other hand I am happy to give credit to Slaf: he looks more confident by the game. Confidence is a major part oright

When is the last time you've checked? Less than five years ago Hirscher had 52 points. The avg ppg is 0.691, so unfortunately 0.333 is not average. Beniers had 9 in 8 just last year.

Below is a simple list of the highest ranked forward draft pick of the past 22 years and their stats during their inaugural season in the NHL. Whenever a G or D was picked, I went with the next first forward. As it turned out, it was quite easy to spot that it was rather rare for a non-forward to be picked 1OA, and in all cases the best forward was picked at the lowest 2OA.

In all cases except 2004 Ovechkin (lockout) and 2000 Dany Heately the 1OA started the season in the NHL immediately after their draft, so if we compare Slaf to this cohort it isn't unusual for him to start in the NHL. The problem is when people claim that Slaf is treated like any other 1OA except when it comes to production/performance expectations from 1OAs, in that case they scoff and say he was never meant to be compared to other 1OAs.

Red highlight = lowest 10% performers as per PPG
Yellow highlight = above average performers as per PPG
Green highlight = top 10% performers as per PPG

fun fact if you remove Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, and Beniers the average ppg is 0.569/48pts in aa 82 game season. Slaf is on pace for 27 as of writing, I think he will finish with a pace of 35ish if he keeps improving which gets him in the range of Lafreniere, J Hughes, Svechnikov, and E Staal -- not bad company.

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this list is kind of meaningless since there are only three players that played less than 40 games on it. 9 games is an extremely small sample size to make a comparison. For example, if Slaf gets two points next game he jumps up to a .5 ppg average.

A more detailed method would be to look at the point production of the first 9 games of each player or to wait to see how many points Slaf puts up in the average amount of total games played in a rookie season by the players on that list.

This game by game analysis to try to prove that one is right is so silly.

 

[morhilane]

I just realized, people are "Slaf got 3 goals in 9 games, awesome!", but it's actually 3 since he properly taped his stick (5 games ago). Maybe he would have a few more goals he had taped it fully from the start.

 

[26Mats]

Maybe, but Dvorak on the 2nd line forces either himself or Slafkovsky to the wrong wing.

Maybe Dvorak with Suzuki and Caufield would be ok, and a second line of Slaf-Monahan-Dach could really contribute and balance out the scoring.

Anderson-Evans-Gallagher/Armia is not the greatest third line, but if we can create a good first and second line, perhaps that is the best we can hope for in the first year of the rebuild.

In two years, our 3rd line could be Farrell-Beck-Mesar and Evans could be back on the 4th as a good youngish vet.

Yes, before Dach exploded 9n the 1st line, I wanted to see Dach-Monahan-Slaf and Caufield-Suzuki-Dvorak. But I can't touch the 1st line now. Dach is helping, but also greatly benefiting from playing with, Suzuki and Caufield...

MSL likes playing guys on their off wing so they have a better shooting angle. Dvo could handle playing on his off wing.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Mesar is irrelevant to this question and Laval is part of what may be the best developmental league in the world. Maybe Laval is better with Slafkovsky....maybe it is too early to label them a sh*t show?

I think he would be just fine with Simoneau and Ylonen as linemates in the AHL. Who cares what the other lines are doing as long as his experience on the ice is positive.

That being said, he has shown consistent improvement so why send him down if he is progressing. I support keeping him up right now but if he hits a wall and loses confidence the situation in Laval isn't as bad as you may fear it is. He is already being enormously sheltered by playing against fringe/bottom line NHLers much of the time so playing against top AHLers won't be that much of a drop off but maybe enough to allow him to gain confidence by incorporating more dynamic playmaking habits into his game and testing/honing them against pro's in the North American game. It would also provide an opportunity to gain a ton of PP experience that he is missing out on in the NHL.

We agree on the first bolded sentence. As for the second, Laval is a crappy environment right now and is unlikely to change much, but I would still send Slaf there if he is not in our top 12 forwards due to hitting a wall or any other reason. In my book, you play in the NHL if you are top-12 F or top-6 D, and go down if you are not, so that you do not sit in the stands, nor get playing time over other more deserving players.

 

[Andy]

I just realized, people are "Slaf got 3 goals in 9 games, awesome!", but it's actually 3 since he properly taped his stick (5 games ago). Maybe he would have a few more goals he had taped it fully from the start.

I think folks need to stop stat watching and actually look at his development since the start of TC and the season.

In the early games he struggled battling on the boards, his passes in transition would often get picked up, and he often lost stick battles when in possession on the half wall. Defenders would successfully separate him from the puck when he’d carry it across the blue line, he had trouble making space for himself and couldn’t get off his shot.

In 9 games he’s now shooting more. Make crisp passes in transition. Winning board battles, intercepting passes, making room for himself, getting passes across tight seems, he’s now able to protect the puck more.

In other words, he’s done everything but hit a wall. A player that continues to improve game over game is a player that belongs. Instead of people getting impressed by this, we have some folks continuously digging their heels because they’d rather be right then actually see the development.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I think folks need to stop stat watching and actually look at his development since the start of TC and the season.

In the early games he struggled battling on the boards, his passes in transition would often get picked up, and he often lost stick battles when in possession on the half wall. Defenders would successfully separate him from the puck when he’d carry it across the blue line, he had trouble making space for himself and couldn’t get off his shot.

In 9 games he’s now shooting more. Make crisp passes in transition. Winning board battles, intercepting passes, making room for himself, getting passes across tight seems, he’s now able to protect the puck more.

In other words, he’s done everything but hit a wall. A player that continues to improve game over game is a player that belongs. Instead of people getting impressed by this, we have some folks continuously digging their heels because they’d rather be right then actually see the development.

One person who has a pretty close up view of Slaf and has some knowledge of the NHL is a certain Martin Saint Louis. His words a few days ago were "la progression de Slafkovsky est superbe". I'll trust he knows what he sees every day, including in practices.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

We agree on the first bolded sentence. As for the second, Laval is a crappy environment right now and is unikely to change much, but I would still send Slaf there if he is not in our top 12 forwards due to hitting a wall or any other reason. In my book, you play in the NHL if you are top-12 F or top-6 D, and go down if you are not, so that you do not sit in the stands, nor get playing time over other more deserving players.

Hughes did say at the start that Laval might be used strategically for things like PP usage so I wouldn't rule out such a scenario. I would also point out that we don't really know what the environment is like in Laval. This board's "Laval environment" is toxic AF but I suspect HuGo's developmental mandate and messaging extends deeply into the fabric of the Laval organization.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Hughes did say at the start that Laval might be used strategically for things like PP usage so I wouldn't rule out such a scenario. I would also point out that we don't really know what the environment is like in Laval. This board's "Laval environment" is toxic AF but I suspect HuGo's developmental mandate and messaging extends deeply into the fabric of the Laval organization.

Even if Houle is actually a MSL clone, which I doubt, the AHL is the AHL. Laurent Dauphin is a top player, Zachary Fucale is a star goalie, and Alex Belzile is a captain. No developmental mandate changes these facts.

 

[ReHabs]

this list is kind of meaningless since there are only three players that played less than 40 games on it. 9 games is an extremely small sample size to make a comparison. For example, if Slaf gets two points next game he jumps up to a .5 ppg average.

A more detailed method would be to look at the point production of the first 9 games of each player or to wait to see how many points Slaf puts up in the average amount of total games played in a rookie season by the players on that list.

This game by game analysis to try to prove that one is right is so silly.

Well… the topic was his PPG so that’s what I looked at. If Slaf gets two points next game you people will start carving out the base for his Bell Centre statue.

If he keeps up this rate he will be the lowest performing not entry slides player on that list. But as I said, I think he will increase his ppg and normalize his consistency (which is good actually imo)

 

[Andy]

I’m 99

Well… the topic was his PPG so that’s what I looked at. If Slaf gets two points next game you people will start carving out the base for his Bell Centre statue.

If he keeps up this rate he will be the lowest performing not entry slides player on that list. But as I said, I think he will increase his ppg and normalize his consistency (which is good actually imo)

who cares. It’s not what he does in year 1, it’s how he progresses over his career.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I think folks need to stop stat watching and actually look at his development since the start of TC and the season.

In the early games he struggled battling on the boards, his passes in transition would often get picked up, and he often lost stick battles when in possession on the half wall. Defenders would successfully separate him from the puck when he’d carry it across the blue line, he had trouble making space for himself and couldn’t get off his shot.

In 9 games he’s now shooting more. Make crisp passes in transition. Winning board battles, intercepting passes, making room for himself, getting passes across tight seems, he’s now able to protect the puck more.

In other words, he’s done everything but hit a wall. A player that continues to improve game over game is a player that belongs. Instead of people getting impressed by this, we have some folks continuously digging their heels because they’d rather be right then actually see the development.

Slafkovsky continues to adapt to the speed and intensity of the game. You can see his confidence grow every game as he comes to the self realization that even at 18 he has the ability to compete and succeed against the best players in the world. I would be surprised if the team management would send him to Laval in an effort to ‘boost’ his confidence. As long as he progresses and does not become overwhelmed by the pace of game, Slafkovsky will stay in Montreal. Unless for mysterious reason they want to see more of Hoffman on the ice.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Even if Houle is actually a MSL clone, which I doubt, the AHL is the AHL. Laurent Dauphin is a top player, Zachary Fucale is a star goalie, and Alex Belzile is a captain. No developmental mandate changes these facts.

Dauphin has never been close to being a top scorer in the AHL and Fucale certainly has not been an established star goalie down there either and has spent as much time in the ECHL as he has the AHL. The inclusion of Belzile as a captain to your argument is puzzling to say the least.....entirely irrelevant. Dauphin is back in the NHL playing against other 4th liners like Slafkovsky so you are kind of making my point here. Slaf is primarily being matched against bottom line/pairing NHLers who are only marginally better than top AHLers who he would be up against in Laval.

 

[SOLR]

When is the last time you've checked? Less than five years ago Hirscher had 52 points. The avg ppg is 0.691, so unfortunately 0.333 is not average. Beniers had 9 in 8 just last year.


View attachment 604201

If your reply to my argument is "less than 5 years ago" you are not making the point you think you are making.

Moreover, you are taking 9 games as a sample for Slaf, a very small sample to make an argument against him on his PPG?! You can't compare full seasons with 9 games OK? And again, you have to keep in mind deployment. Slafkovski is not being used in a prime offensive role right now. Beniers was the best center in Seattle from day one, because the team was awful, so he got 20 min deployment and first PP right away. Not the case for Wright right now...

There is a group of strong 1st OA Matthews, McDavid, McKinnon and then the generation before Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin. We all knew Slaf was not that level of a player while Bedard/Michkov are. It happens, it doesn't say anything about Slaf or the choice of selecting Slaf vs. others options or indicate what is the best path to develop him.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Dauphin has never been close to being a top scorer in the AHL and Fucale certainly has not been an established star goalie down there either and has spent as much time in the ECHL as he has the AHL. Dauphin is back in the NHL playing against other 4th liners like Slafkovsky so you are kind of making my point here. Slaf is primarily being matched against bottom line/pairing NHLers who are only marginally better than top AHLers who he would be up against in Laval.

Dauphin has 40 points in his last 47 AHL games. But fine. Replace Dauphin with Daniel Carr and Fucale with Tokarski. The point remains.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Replace Dauphin with Daniel Carr and Fucale with Tokarski. The point remains.

But you are only emboldening my point as these are fringe NHLers and Carr has been in Europe for the past two seasons other than a short stint in Washington. Slaf is already playing against fringe NHLers who are only marginally better than the fringe NHLers he would face in Laval. If your point is that the NHL is better than the AHL then you needn't convince me further.

 

[BaseballCoach]

There is a group of strong 1st OA Matthews, McDavid, McKinnon and then the generation before Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin. We all knew Slaf was not that level of a player while Bedard/Michkov are. It happens, it doesn't say anything about Slaf or the choice of selecting Slaf vs. others options or indicate what is the best path to develop him.

No, we do not all know that Bedard and Michkov are at the level of Crosby and Ovechkin. A year ago, Wright was at that level too. There are scouts who now have Fantilli over both of them. So what, we now have THREE generational players in the same draft?

But you are only emboldening my point as these are fringe NHLers and Carr has been in Europe for the past two seasons other than a short stint in Washington. Slaf is already playing against fringe NHLers who are only marginally better than the fringe AHLers he would face in Laval. If your point is that the NHL is better than the AHL then you needn't convince me further.

Why is Carr in Europe despite dominating the AHL?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

“He nEeDs tO Be iN LAvaL”.

The usual suspects can keep saying that, and he’ll keep scoring goals in the NHL.

Some people were really that mad about the team not picking Shane Wright, that they can’t even enjoy watching this kid or cheer for him. They have to nit pick every little mistake he makes, and borderline hope for him to not do well.

Hopefully as he keeps scoring goals, they’ll become more and more quiet, and then they’ll pretend they supported him all along, as is the norm on HF.

He’s only gonna get better and better.

They are just afraid of past history but the difference is I think Slaf is literally BUILT different

 

[SOLR]

No, we do not all know that Bedard and Michkov are at the level of Crosby and Ovechkin. A year ago, Wright was at that level too. There are scouts who now have Fantilli over both of them. So what, we now have THREE generational players in the same draft?


Why is Carr in Europe despite dominating the AHL?

Nope, he never was, if you ever thought that you were misguided. I was saying it from 2 years before his draft.
The hype machine was always ridiculous for Wright. Bedard was outplaying Wright last year...

Ovechkin, Malkin in the same draft.
Crosby, Price, (and many others) in the same draft.
etc.

There are good drafts, 2023 is was one of them.

 

[admiralcadillac]

It appears you do not know much about hockey or you just came here to push an agenda.

That’s 100% of his posts. Negative.