Prospect Info: 2022 - 1st OA] Juraj Slafkovsky (LW) Part 4

[HabsForHire]

I'll start off saying I couldn't care less if Slaf is one of our top 9 or 12 forwards, it's his development that matters.

He is passing my eye test, but I can't tell whether he should be in the AHL.

So for people with a better eye, how is he different from us keeping up Galchenyuk and KK?

Imo he's doing pretty much what KK did, look ok enough. And we all know how that went. Ahl or at the very least bump him up of the damn 4th line

 

[cphabs]

What did he do for the 5 minute penalty lol

 

[morhilane]

What did he do for the 5 minute penalty lol

He server Anderson's 5 minute penalty after Andy got a game misconduct on top.

 

[rve24]

When is the last time you've checked? Less than five years ago Hirscher had 52 points. The avg ppg is 0.691, so unfortunately 0.333 is not average. Beniers had 9 in 8 just last year.

Below is a simple list of the highest ranked forward draft pick of the past 22 years and their stats during their inaugural season in the NHL. Whenever a G or D was picked, I went with the next first forward. As it turned out, it was quite easy to spot that it was rather rare for a non-forward to be picked 1OA, and in all cases the best forward was picked at the lowest 2OA.

In all cases except 2004 Ovechkin (lockout) and 2000 Dany Heately the 1OA started the season in the NHL immediately after their draft, so if we compare Slaf to this cohort it isn't unusual for him to start in the NHL. The problem is when people claim that Slaf is treated like any other 1OA except when it comes to production/performance expectations from 1OAs, in that case they scoff and say he was never meant to be compared to other 1OAs.

Red highlight = lowest 10% performers as per PPG
Yellow highlight = above average performers as per PPG
Green highlight = top 10% performers as per PPG

fun fact if you remove Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, and Beniers the average ppg is 0.569/48pts in aa 82 game season. Slaf is on pace for 27 as of writing, I think he will finish with a pace of 35ish if he keeps improving which gets him in the range of Lafreniere, J Hughes, Svechnikov, and E Staal -- not bad company.

View attachment 604186

TY for putting it together.
Interesting the last 5 years only 1 player was at .5 or higher and was sent down after 8 games. Must be play related?
Seems to be right in line with his most recent peers.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Not too many players have the shot to score the three goals he scored. And, he's been setting up his mediocre linemates who can't finish.

Last night he made a nice play to give Armia a nice chance in the slot, but it was Armia.

Every player makes passes like this and guess what, they more often than not don’t result in a goal.

Slaf hasn’t been given much of a chance, I expect Marty will move him up the lineup and the not too distant future. He’s hard to judge atm, not enough ice time. I don’t like this type of deployment for young kids in prime development years. He needs to play and to play often. He’s made the most of the ice time, but sample is just too small.

 

[BaseballCoach]

He score 3 goals not of which were particularly special, he has not generated much outside of it and isn’t getting much playing time.
If playing against better than your self is how to get better how come we don’t see everyone getting better, why aren’t all 18yo in the NHL, why do players that dominate lower level continue to improve… You get better by pushing you limits and staying motivated to continue, AHL will be significant competition and somewhere he doesn’t have to hold back and push is abilities to the limits unlike the NHL he playing well within is limits trying to not make mistake.

A few rebuttal points:

a. All 18 yos are not in the NHL because the large majority can't handle it, they are worse than the starters and it makes no sense to sit them in the stands a lot. Even Shane Wright, an exceptional player when younger, has one fluky assist and just ONE shot on goal, in 4.3 minutes per game available, in a MONTH. I get wanting to send Wright somewhere else to play and improve the things that are holding him back from performing in the NHL. Slaf on the other hand has played 11.1 minutes per game available, has 3 goals and 9 shots. More importantly his 3 goals are third on the team, and even with no assists, his 0.33 points per game are tied for 6th-7th on the team among the 15 forwards.

b. Slaf has in fact generated both offensive zone time and scoring chances and has not been an above normal defensive liability. He is top half of the team in both forechecking and backchecking, meaning puck retrieval.

c. It is an absolute myth that players that dominate lower levels will succeed in the NHL. The AHL is full of players who put up many points but can't do so in the NHL, and Juniors are full of players who were over ppg and could not even make a mark in the AHL. Same goes for the ECHL; plenty of good scorers there do zilch in the AHL. Playing weaker players is NOT how you learn to shine at the next level. It is only a necessary evil if you aren't good enough for the next level and want to play hockey.

d. I agree with you that we want a player to be motivated to keep working and not to play too afraid of making mistakes. Neither negative is in fact happening. The coaching staff is clearly not putting too much pressure to be perfect on the young group, Slaf included. Juraj from his comments is clearly very happy with how he is being treated, and is improving constantly. His coach stated publicly within the last week that "Slafkovsky's progression is superb". I see absolutely no reason at this time to switch his mentor from Suzuki to Belzile, his coach from St-Louis to Houle, or his opponents from Brady Tkachuk and Andrei Vasilevsky to Laurent Dauphin and Zachary Fucale.

The actual facts of Slafkovsky's time here do not match up with the (many) situations where demotion is the right or necessary move.

 

[BaseballCoach]

View attachment 604186

Was Beniers sent down?? Didn't he just play in the NHL after his college season was over (hence the limited games)?

 

[vlady]

When is the last time you've checked? Less than five years ago Hirscher had 52 points. The avg ppg is 0.691, so unfortunately 0.333 is not average. Beniers had 9 in 8 just last year.

Below is a simple list of the highest ranked forward draft pick of the past 22 years and their stats during their inaugural season in the NHL. Whenever a G or D was picked, I went with the next first forward. As it turned out, it was quite easy to spot that it was rather rare for a non-forward to be picked 1OA, and in all cases the best forward was picked at the lowest 2OA.

In all cases except 2004 Ovechkin (lockout) and 2000 Dany Heately the 1OA started the season in the NHL immediately after their draft, so if we compare Slaf to this cohort it isn't unusual for him to start in the NHL. The problem is when people claim that Slaf is treated like any other 1OA except when it comes to production/performance expectations from 1OAs, in that case they scoff and say he was never meant to be compared to other 1OAs.

Red highlight = lowest 10% performers as per PPG
Yellow highlight = above average performers as per PPG
Green highlight = top 10% performers as per PPG

fun fact if you remove Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, and Beniers the average ppg is 0.569/48pts in aa 82 game season. Slaf is on pace for 27 as of writing, I think he will finish with a pace of 35ish if he keeps improving which gets him in the range of Lafreniere, J Hughes, Svechnikov, and E Staal -- not bad company.

View attachment 604186

you might need to re-check your stats. Just at first glance Beniers' numbers are wrong. He played 10 games, not 8 and he played them at the end of the season (starting Apr 12), not at the beginning.

 

[ReHabs]

Was Beniers sent down?? Didn't he just play in the NHL after his college season was over (hence the limited games)?

My mistake, according to capfriendly it isn't a contract slide. Good catch.

you might need to re-check your stats. Just at first glance Beniers' numbers are wrong. He played 10 games, not 8 and he played them at the end of the season (starting Apr 12), not at the beginning.

You're absolutely right I'm not sure why I got that one wrong. He had 9 in 10, and no contract slide. I've updated the chart.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Agree, he has set up his linemates quite a few times, but they can’t finish! Should have at least 3 assists. Kid HAS to stay!!!!!

If you are assuming every good setup should be a goal then Suzuki should have 25 assists......it doesn't work that way. He is definitely improving but he really hasn't made many significant plays and he is up against the oppositions bottom d pairings and bottom six forwards most of the time.

I think he has taken some big steps from his first few games where he was flat out lost on the ice and I think he will only continue to get better as his confidence grows. He certainly does not have to stay as Laval would be great for him as well but I doubt he goes down if he continues improving.

 

[26Mats]

Every player makes passes like this and guess what, they more often than not don’t result in a goal.

Slaf hasn’t been given much of a chance, I expect Marty will move him up the lineup and the not too distant future. He’s hard to judge atm, not enough ice time. I don’t like this type of deployment for young kids in prime development years. He needs to play and to play often. He’s made the most of the ice time, but sample is just too small.

He's created more than others have in his limited ice time imo.

I'm not sure what Marty is waiting for to try him with Monahan and give him around 15 minutes of ice time.

I also hope MSL saw the tape of Evan's on the wing in our playoff run. Because Evan's should get a shot next to Slaf and Monahan.

 

[BaseballCoach]

My mistake, according to capfriendly it isn't a contract slide. Good catch.


You're absolutely right I'm not sure why I got that one wrong. He had 9 in 10, and no contract slide. I've updated the chart.

Thanks.

So in fact, almost no forward who was 1st or 2nd OA pick got sent down if producing at over 0.2 ppg.

Now I will submit that this is not because clubs are stubbornly trying to justify their high pick. Rather the scouts' job is to identify guys whose game will translate to the NHL, AFTER A TRANSITION PERIOD in most cases, since not everyone is Crosby or McDavid.

It is rare for scouts to be massively wrong with the players most scouted, so it is entirely understandable that the top forward drafted always starts in the NHL. What varies is the level of play to start. Is the player a first liner right away? 2nd? 3rd? 4th? Even a guy good enough to be a 4th liner to start, with his history of moving up at every level, will in most cases move up once again.

I'm pretty sure that Habs fans who have patience to allow Slafkovsky to continue to develop will be happy in the not too distant future, even if they find out that a top pick is rarely a future Hall of Famer who leads his team to 3 Cups.

 

[BlackEye from Xhekaj]

When is the last time you've checked? Less than five years ago Hirscher had 52 points. The avg ppg is 0.691, so unfortunately 0.333 is not average. Beniers had 9 in 8 just last year.

Below is a simple list of the highest ranked forward draft pick of the past 22 years and their stats during their inaugural season in the NHL. Whenever a G or D was picked, I went with the next first forward. As it turned out, it was quite easy to spot that it was rather rare for a non-forward to be picked 1OA, and in all cases the best forward was picked at the lowest 2OA.

In all cases except 2004 Ovechkin (lockout) and 2000 Dany Heately the 1OA started the season in the NHL immediately after their draft, so if we compare Slaf to this cohort it isn't unusual for him to start in the NHL. The problem is when people claim that Slaf is treated like any other 1OA except when it comes to production/performance expectations from 1OAs, in that case they scoff and say he was never meant to be compared to other 1OAs.

Red highlight = lowest 10% performers as per PPG
Yellow highlight = above average performers as per PPG
Green highlight = top 10% performers as per PPG

fun fact if you remove Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, and Beniers the average ppg is 0.569/48pts in aa 82 game season. Slaf is on pace for 27 as of writing, I think he will finish with a pace of 35ish if he keeps improving which gets him in the range of Lafreniere, J Hughes, Svechnikov, and E Staal -- not bad company.

View attachment 604201

With more ice time, confidence, better linemates, and some PP time, it's definitely probable that he ends up in that Laf, Hughes, Svech Staal range, which is a solid start for the kid. You could even say that he's currently just about there, as Hughes was on a 28pt pace in his rookie season, and Slaf is currently at 27.. so that extra point would bump his numbers into that low-average range and he'd be out of the red.

More importantly, Crosby and Ovechkin were just so dominant as rookies.. definitely a different breed of player. They were so fun to watch then, and have just been so good for the game for almost 2 decades now!

 

[BaseballCoach]

If you are assuming every good setup should be a goal then Suzuki should have 25 assists......it doesn't work that way. He is definitely improving but he really hasn't made many significant plays and he is up against the oppositions bottom d pairings and bottom six forwards most of the time.

I think he has taken some big steps from his first few games where he was flat out lost on the ice and I think he will only continue to get better as his confidence grows. He certainly does not have to stay as Laval would be great for him as well but I doubt he goes down if he continues improving.

How would Laval be great for him? Laval is a sh*t show. He doesn't even have Mesar there to play C.

 

[KevSkillz4]

I just want to put that right there, on a Early Mock Draft, I have selected Slafkovsky 4th overall and I said that he have all tools to dominate in this league. So happy that he is a Habs.

Yeah, I would never forget @Goldenhands who are the guy who wanted Slafkovsky at 1st overall since day one. Me too I wanted Slafkovsky if Habs have been selected at 2 or 3. But it's a fantastic pick at 1 too.

 

[BenchBrawl]

The Laval crusaders have about another 2 weeks before they stay silent forever

 

[ReHabs]

Thanks.

So in fact, almost no forward who was 1st or 2nd OA pick got sent down if producing at over 0.2 ppg.

Now I will submit that this is not because clubs are stubbornly trying to justify their high pick. Rather the scouts' job is to identify guys whose game will translate to the NHL, AFTER A TRANSITION PERIOD in most cases, since not everyone is Crosby or McDavid.

It is rare for scouts to be massively wrong with the players most scouted, so it is entirely understandable that the top forward drafted always starts in the NHL. What varies is the level of play to start. Is the player a first liner right away? 2nd? 3rd? 4th? Even a guy good enough to be a 4th liner to start, with his history of moving up at every level, will in most cases move up once again.

I'm pretty sure that Habs fans who have patience to allow Slafkovsky to continue to develop will be happy in the not too distant future, even if they find out that a top pick is rarely a future Hall of Famer who leads his team to 3 Cups.

Yeah, I'm no longer calling for him to be sent down tbh. I think his production is on the low-end and expect more but if Laval really isn't viable then what can we do, there are worse places to be than under MSL's golden touch.

A more in-depth analysis would look at every recent draftee's inaugural NHL season (as opposed to just the 1OA/2OA) but I don't know an easy way to find that data without manually going through it.

My two fundemental positions on Slaf are as follows (and remain unchanged): (1) he needs to improve his playmaking ability and (2) it wouldn't hurt him to play in a lower division/league in order to improve specifically item (1). If (1) will prove to have improved in the NHL, then great - we take a small hit with the ELC non-slide but it's irrelevant. I think (2) indicates patience, not lack of patience, for Slafkovsky. We need him to not just not-bust but be a star.

With more ice time, confidence, better linemates, and some PP time, it's definitely probable that he ends up in that Laf, Hughes, Svech Staal range, which is a solid start for the kid. You could even say that he's currently just about there, as Hughes was on a 28pt pace in his rookie season, and Slaf is currently at 27.. so that extra point would bump his numbers into that low-average range and he'd be out of the red.

More importantly, Crosby and Ovechkin were just so dominant as rookies.. definitely a different breed of player. They were so fun to watch then, and have just been so good for the game for almost 2 decades now!

Keep in mind many were and remain critical of Laf and J Hughes... even on this board before and after the 2022 draft people were not singing their praises. Patience and trajectory are keys here -- which is also why I felt like Slaf should've not started in the NHL. But that's out the window, at this rate we can just root for his continued growth and success.

Yeah Sid and Ovy are phenomenal and I'm glad to have been here for their entire primes. Tremendous gifts to the general hockey fan.

 

[BaseballCoach]

He's created more than others have in his limited ice time imo.

I'm not sure what Marty is waiting for to try him with Monahan and give him around 15 minutes of ice time.

I also hope MSL saw the tape of Evan's on the wing in our playoff run. Because Evan's should get a shot next to Slaf and Monahan.

I think Slaf should be playing with either Dach or Monahan at C, and with Anderson on the RW, but right now Anderson is being tried, even on his wrong wing, to breathe life into Dvorak and Gallagher.

I think 4C is at least as important as third line winger, so I would not move Evans unless we have a 4th C, which we don't have if Dach or Monahan plays wing.

For me, ideally:

Monahan-Suzuki-Caufield
Slafkovsky-Dach-Anderson
Droffmanov-Dvorak-Gallagher
Vonamfford-Evans-Armia

I like this better because Monahan is probably going to be moved at the deadline, and seeing as we are not really trying desperately to make playoffs at the expense of the future, Dach should get reps as the 2C we want him to become, but with wingers who can score when a good playmaker is feeding them. Dach could join the top line as a 4th F on the PP1.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I think Slaf should be playing with either Dach or Monahan at C, and with Anderson on the RW, but right now Anderson is being tried, even on his wrong wing, to breathe life into Dvorak and Gallagher.

I think 4C is at least as important as third line winger, so I would not move Evans unless we have a 4th C, which we don't have if Dach or Monahan plays wing.

For me, ideally:

Monahan-Suzuki-Caufield
Slafkovsky-Dach-Anderson
Droffmanov-Dvorak-Gallagher
Pitlick-Evans-Armia

I like this better because Monahan is probably going to be moved at the deadline, and seeing as we are not really trying desperately to make playoffs at the expense of the future, Dach should get reps as the 2C we want him to become, but with wingers who can score when a good playmaker is feeding them. Dach could join the top line as a 4th F on the PP1.

Disagree, it's better for Dach to gain confidence by piling up the points at this juncture in his career. This will pay off in the future years. Slafkovsky can wait and be brought in more slowly scoring points on the lower lines with some PP time. He's a rookie and 18 years old, no problem to spend the season learning. Next year he'll have a better center to play with, hopefully.

 

[26Mats]

I think Slaf should be playing with either Dach or Monahan at C, and with Anderson on the RW, but right now Anderson is being tried, even on his wrong wing, to breathe life into Dvorak and Gallagher.

I think 4C is at least as important as third line winger, so I would not move Evans unless we have a 4th C, which we don't have if Dach or Monahan plays wing.

For me, ideally:

Monahan-Suzuki-Caufield
Slafkovsky-Dach-Anderson
Droffmanov-Dvorak-Gallagher
Pitlick-Evans-Armia

I like this better because Monahan is probably going to be moved at the deadline, and seeing as we are not really trying desperately to make playoffs at the expense of the future, Dach should get reps as the 2C we want him to become, but with wingers who can score when a good playmaker is feeding them. Dach could join the top line as a 4th F on the PP1.

I agree that if we move Evan's into the top 9, that creates a problem at 4c. Which is why I would go pit and get a 4c like Tyler Pitlick, who was just available for free...

I wouldn't move Dach from the 1st line at this point...

Yes, I want to get Monahan's trade value up, which is why I'm willing to make other sacrifices to make his line more offensive, such as weakening the 4th line. I consider his line, because it should be the 2nd most offensive, the 2nd line. The best candidates, imo, to make it more offensive are, along with Slaf, Evan's or Dvorak. I would put either there despite otherbproblems it creates because we need a 2nd offensive line - and to get Monahan's value up! For me it's actually Dvorak because if that line produces, Dvorak will be getting more points and it will also get his value up. Let's get 1st round picks for both Monahan and Dvorak when they are scoring at around a 50 point pace, and weaken the team by trading them so we can get closer to a top 3 pick!

 

[BaseballCoach]

Yeah, I'm no longer calling for him to be sent down tbh. I think his production is on the low-end and expect more but if Laval really isn't viable then what can we do, there are worse places to be than under MSL's golden touch.

A more in-depth analysis would look at every recent draftee's inaugural NHL season (as opposed to just the 1OA/2OA) but I don't know an easy way to find that data without manually going through it.

My two fundemental positions on Slaf are as follows (and remain unchanged): (1) he needs to improve his playmaking ability and (2) it wouldn't hurt him to play in a lower division/league in order to improve specifically item (1). If (1) will prove to have improved in the NHL, then great - we take a small hit with the ELC non-slide but it's irrelevant. I think (2) indicates patience, not lack of patience, for Slafkovsky. We need him to not just not-bust but be a star.


Keep in mind many were and remain critical of Laf and J Hughes... even on this board before and after the 2022 draft people were not singing their praises. Patience and trajectory are keys here -- which is also why I felt like Slaf should've not started in the NHL. But that's out the window, at this rate we can just root for his continued growth and success.

Yeah Sid and Ovy are phenomenal and I'm glad to have been here for their entire primes. Tremendous gifts to the general hockey fan.

I generally like your honesty level, I think you are up to at least 85% now, but maybe are fooling yourself just a tad.

If you sense and agree that Laval is not viable (your words) then the final 15% is to accept that sending Slaf there would NOT have been the right move. In some theoretical world with different facts, maybe, but not in this case, with these coaches, with these two teams and atmospheres, etc.

As for patience, you are right that sending Slaf down (point 2 as you put it) would require even more patience from the fans since that move would have slowed Slafkovsky's development. I don't want to be overdramatic. I don't think demotion would have "ruined" him, just delayed his NHL adjustment.

My point is that if fans want an instant 25 goal scorer, they will need to be patient if he stays up (and even MORE patient if he is sent down).

 

[BLONG7]

Every player makes passes like this and guess what, they more often than not don’t result in a goal.

Slaf hasn’t been given much of a chance, I expect Marty will move him up the lineup and the not too distant future. He’s hard to judge atm, not enough ice time. I don’t like this type of deployment for young kids in prime development years. He needs to play and to play often. He’s made the most of the ice time, but sample is just too small.

Is playing well enough to get moved up with some better players.............and there are a few that can move down the lineup or sit upstairs......
This kid is going to be a good one...................may take a couple of seasons, but look out guys.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I agree that if we move Evan's into the top 9, that creates a problem at 4c. Which is why I would go pit and get a 4c like Tyler Pitlick, who was just available for free...

I wouldn't move Dach from the 1st line at this point...

Yes, I want to get Monahan's trade value up, which is why I'm willing to make other sacrifices to make his line more offensive, such as weakening the 4th line. I consider his line, because it should be the 2nd most offensive, the 2nd line. The best candidates, imo, to make it more offensive are, along with Slaf, Evan's or Dvorak. I would put either there despite otherbproblems it creates because we need a 2nd offensive line - and to get Monahan's value up! For me it's actually Dvorak because if that line produces, Dvorak will be getting more points and it will also get his value up. Let's get 1st round picks for both Monahan and Dvorak when they are scoring at around a 50 point pace, and weaken the team by trading them so we can get closer to a top 3 pick!

Even if we leave Dach at 1RW, and move Monahan to 2C, I would prefer Anderson on the second line to Dvorak. If we want to showcase Dvorak, he can play PP2 with Slaf and Anderson/Gallagher.

 

[ReHabs]

I generally like your honesty level, I think you are up to at least 85% now, but maybe are fooling yourself just a tad.

If you sense and agree that Laval is not viable (your words) then the final 15% is to accept that sending Slaf there would NOT have been the right move. In some theoretical world with different facts, maybe, but not in this case, with these coaches, with these two teams and atmospheres, etc.

As for patience, you are right that sending Slaf down (point 2 as you put it) would require even more patience from the fans since that move would have slowed Slafkovsky's development. I don't want to be overdramatic. I don't think demotion would have "ruined" him, just delayed his NHL adjustment.

My point is that if fans want an instant 25 goal scorer, they will need to be patient if he stays up (and even MORE patient if he is sent down).

I genuinely didn’t realize or expect Laval to be rubbish. I got word from a friend who goes to games and I saw it too many times here to ignore, around the board criticism of every facet there. So, in response, I adjusted my position. As one should.

Over summer I mostly espoused that he should return to Liiga. AHL was my second choice given they suggested he would be in Montreal for the season’s duration. I’ll be honest and say I never really considered CHL but took that position as preferred over rushing him to the NHL.

 

[26Mats]

Even if we leave Dach at 1RW, and move Monahan to 2C, I would prefer Anderson on the second line to Dvorak. If we want to showcase Dvorak, he can play PP2 with Slaf and Anderson/Gallagher.

Fair enough, we're just of different opinions of Anderson's offensive abilities. I don't think he gets Monahan and Slaf going offensively, and I think Dvorak and Evan's are the best hope with the current forward corps.

I think Anderson on a 3rd line is the best role for him. I also think Evan's MIGHT be able to get Anderson and Gallagher going offensively than Dvorak can. More speed in transition.