Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[Stephen]

Man amongst boys right now in college. He’s got everything but elite wheels. You could argue that he is benefitting from great line mates and a superior team, but you can also argue that he is a big reason that his line and team is so good.
Leafs have to feel good about his size and toughness.

If the Leafs love Knies' size and toughness, it kind of makes you wonder why those attributes aren't factored in more when they go looking for BPA.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

If the Leafs love Knies' size and toughness, it kind of makes you wonder why those attributes aren't factored in more when they go looking for BPA.

Usually players of Knies' skillset combined with size and grittiness aren't available outside the first round. Power forwards of his size are usually long shot projects with major flaws.

The leafs were lucky to get him where they did and is likely why we saw in the Leafs blue print video, the scouts saying that he was too good to pass up when Dubas asked them about trading down.

 

[kb]

If the Leafs love Knies' size and toughness, it kind of makes you wonder why those attributes aren't factored in more when they go looking for BPA.

Why do you think they aren't? They've signed many with those attributes.

The ones they have just can't play hockey. You can't win without actual talent. And the ones that do play that way are in the top-15 of a draft and aren't traded.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

If the Leafs love Knies' size and toughness, it kind of makes you wonder why those attributes aren't factored in more when they go looking for BPA.

Maaybe because a base level of skill is still required for size and toughness to mean a damn thing.

 

[Stephen]

Maaybe because a base level of skill is still required for size and toughness to mean a damn thing.

Sure, but the opposite attribute of high skill level and non NHL body is also just as useless. That's why I advocate diverse draft classes with different body types, player types that can fill different pipeline needs.

 

[LeafChief]

If the Leafs love Knies' size and toughness, it kind of makes you wonder why those attributes aren't factored in more when they go looking for BPA.

Maybe somebody needs to explain to you what BPA means.

 

[notbias]

Sure, but the opposite attribute of high skill level and non NHL body is also just as useless. That's why I advocate diverse draft classes with different body types, player types that can fill different pipeline needs.

We draft players with different body types and skill sets, that is what drafting the BPA is.

We just don't draft plugs that are large and can't play.

I'd rather they don't waste picks on drafting a 4C or a grinding forward who will score 15 pts a year, seems like a waste of a pick when they are easily signed in free agency.

Taking swings on guys like Voit in the 5th or SDA in the 3rd where they are most likely not going to make it, but if they make it, they are likely going to be able to drive play on a 2nd/3rd line or be a complimentary player in the top 6 is a much better strategy in my opinion.

Also, big, skilled players are gone early, I have no clue how Knies was available, but he was and the team took him because he was BPA.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Sure, but the opposite attribute of high skill level and non NHL body is also just as useless. That's why I advocate diverse draft classes with different body types, player types that can fill different pipeline needs.

I think the point of argument is what the exchange rate is on skill vs size. A Tyler Biggs skill level isn't equivalent to a skilled 5'9 170 pound guy in terms of "NHL body to NHL skill exchange rate", it's more like a 5'4 100 pound guy that will simply never make it no matter how skilled he is. Biggs could have been 7 feet tall and a lean 280 pounds, he'd still never have made it because his skating, IQ, and skillset was nonexistant. Knies' skills are strong enough that he could make it if he was Marner sized at 6'0 195 instead of 6'3 230.

 

[Stephen]

We draft players with different body types and skill sets, that is what drafting the BPA is.

We just don't draft plugs that are large and can't play.

I'd rather they don't waste picks on drafting a 4C or a grinding forward who will score 15 pts a year, seems like a waste of a pick when they are easily signed in free agency.

Taking swings on guys like Voit in the 5th or SDA in the 3rd where they are most likely not going to make it, but if they make it, they are likely going to be able to drive play on a 2nd/3rd line or be a complimentary player in the top 6 is a much better strategy in my opinion.

Also, big, skilled players are gone early, I have no clue how Knies was available, but he was and the team took him because he was BPA.

The league is full of big body grinders and power forward type players who were not first round picks. That’s a misconception.

 

[Menzinger]

If the Leafs love Knies' size and toughness, it kind of makes you wonder why those attributes aren't factored in more when they go looking for BPA.

Probably because from the leafs scouting staff POV they're (potentially) seen as lesser indicators of future NHL success than other things they may value more (ie production, skating ability, hockey IQ).

 

[kb]

Maaybe because a base level of skill is still required for size and toughness to mean a damn thing.

Seems simple and logical.....to most

 

[Stephen]

Probably because from the leafs scouting staff POV they're (potentially) seen as lesser indicators of future NHL success than other things they may value more (ie production, skating ability, hockey IQ).

It's never that simple of an equation. A guy like Pontus Holmberg will never touch Nick Robertson in terms of skill, but he'll be able to audition for different jobs, fill more roles and earn trust more easily. Just like Knies will likely be able to take a job coming out of school more easily than other skilled guys who are in the AHL but don't compliment the core group. It's all about diversity.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Put him in

 

[Stephen]

Seems simple and logical.....to most

Well Nick Robertson sure is highly skilled, but he's about as useful as a knuckle dragger.

 

[Menzinger]

It's never that simple of an equation. A guy like Pontus Holmberg will never touch Nick Robertson in terms of skill, but he'll be able to audition for different jobs, fill more roles and earn trust more easily. Just like Knies will likely be able to take a job coming out of school more easily than other skilled guys who are in the AHL but don't compliment the core group. It's all about diversity.

I'd agree it's not quite that simple. But at the end of the day amateur scouting is about making educated guesses for the future, and so teams are likely going to lean in on certain markers they view as being more of an indicator than others.

And I'd also agree about valuing diversity within a prospect pool. But I think you can run into certain problems - like just because we may want a big tough player with a certain pick, doesn't mean there's going to be good relative options when it's time to make the selection.

 

[NewZealandMike]

I'd agree it's not quite that simple. But at the end of the day amateur scouting is about making educated guesses for the future, and so teams are likely going to lean in on certain markers they view as being more of an indicator than others.

And I'd also agree about valuing diversity within a prospect pool. But I think you can run into certain problems - like just because we may want a big tough player with a certain pick, doesn't mean there's going to be good relative options when it's time to make the selection.

If you watch Knies he is not a floater. He is involved battling on the boards and I front of the net and responsible on the D end. But he has a wicked release its seriously good...

 

[notbias]

The league is full of big body grinders and power forward type players who were not first round picks. That’s a misconception.

Most aren't impact players and are easily acquired in free agency or trade.

I prefer the philosophy of drafting the best player, not a current need.

By the time these players develop, the needs may change, it seems crazy to draft a player who may play 5 years from now because he fits the team now.

Well Nick Robertson sure is highly skilled, but he's about as useful as a knuckle dragger.

"21 year old is not a full time NHLer now, he's a bust"

Did I just enter an old Liljegren thread?

 

[Dekes For Days]

A guy like Pontus Holmberg will never touch Nick Robertson in terms of skill, but he'll be able to audition for different jobs, fill more roles and earn trust more easily.

A guy like Pontus Holmberg - drafted 5 foot 10 and 174 pounds - sounds like exactly the kind of prospect some people would have written off for having a "non NHL body".

 

[Stephen]

I'd agree it's not quite that simple. But at the end of the day amateur scouting is about making educated guesses for the future, and so teams are likely going to lean in on certain markers they view as being more of an indicator than others.

And I'd also agree about valuing diversity within a prospect pool. But I think you can run into certain problems - like just because we may want a big tough player with a certain pick, doesn't mean there's going to be good relative options when it's time to make the selection.

Just keep an open mind and draft purposefully for those bottom six, bottom pair roles and a goalie every year or two is all I ask. I'm fine trying to hit a Kaprizov home run every year, but also want to see guys who are on separate promotion paths, different time tables.

If Knies is a player type we are all excited about, those attributes should be valued more.

 

[LeafChief]

Just keep an open mind and draft purposefully for those bottom six, bottom pair roles and a goalie every year or two is all I ask. I'm fine trying to hit a Kaprizov home run every year, but also want to see guys who are on separate promotion paths, different time tables.

If Knies is a player type we are all excited about, those attributes should be valued more.

They've drafted a goalie in 6 of the last 7 drafts.

 

[Stephen]

A guy like Pontus Holmberg - drafted 5 foot 10 and 174 pounds - sounds like exactly the kind of prospect some people would have written off for having a "non NHL body".

5'10" and 174 pounds would probably put Pontus Holmberg on the average size of Leaf picks over the years.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Just keep an open mind and draft purposefully for those bottom six, bottom pair roles and a goalie every year or two is all I ask. I'm fine trying to hit a Kaprizov home run every year, but also want to see guys who are on separate promotion paths, different time tables.

If Knies is a player type we are all excited about, those attributes should be valued more.

Our first pick the next draft was a physical 6'1 C with another 6'2 OA W and a 6'6 OA G later on, are they not doing exactly what you're talking about? Our 2022 draft is the exact template of what we need to draft in our situation to get consistent NHL players filling different jobs within 2-3 year development windows. The big boys all look like safe bets for giving us ELC value within 2 years and the two smaller home run picks are tracking well as top-6 lottery tickets.

 

[kb]

Our first pick the next draft was a physical 6'1 C with another 6'2 OA W and a 6'6 OA G later on, are they not doing exactly what you're talking about?

People tend to overlook facts when furthering a false narrative. Seems to be common amongst some board posters....

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

If the Leafs love Knies' size and toughness, it kind of makes you wonder why those attributes aren't factored in more when they go looking for BPA.

They are the easiest and cheapest to fill via other means and worst to target when selecting BPA.

 

[Stephen]

Our first pick the next draft was a physical 6'1 C with another 6'2 OA W and a 6'6 OA G later on, are they not doing exactly what you're talking about? Our 2022 draft is the exact template of what we need to draft in our situation to get consistent NHL players filling different jobs within 2-3 year development windows. The big boys all look like safe bets for giving us ELC value within 2 years and the two smaller home run picks are tracking well as top-6 lottery tickets.

I'd look at the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draft classes as full of players who just don't project well for future NHL roles. Maybe they have some skill, but not enough for a top 6, top 4 role. And not built for the bottom 6 or bottom pair. That's why we're excited about one Matthew Knies. We don't have prospects like him.

I don't see guys like Koster, Loponen, Miller, Rindell, Fusco, Schingoethe, Hollowell, Abramov being efficient picks.

Maybe Robertson, Niemela, Hirvonen, Abruzzese, Miettinen can do something for you one day. Is SDA anywhere close to NHL action 5 years after his draft and multiple years in the AHL?