Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[Stephen]

Not that I don't agree with you or believe you, but do you have a quote for this? I'm sure that they've touted him, but did they even say that they hoped that he could jump right in?

I thought that it was all media and fan hype up until this point.

It obviously make sense, just not sure if they've dangled that carrot yet.

They offered Knies a playoff role last spring.

Matthew Knies takes Matthews’ advice, aims to ‘give Maple Leafs a boost’ in 2023 – Sportsnet.ca

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[daethfromabove1979]

They offered Knies a playoff role last spring.

Matthew Knies takes Matthews’ advice, aims to ‘give Maple Leafs a boost’ in 2023 – Sportsnet.ca

www.sportsnet.ca

My understanding is Dubas was on his hands and knees begging for Knies to sign last year, or maybe I'm making that up.

 

[stickty111]

My understanding is Dubas was on his hands and knees begging for Knies to sign last year, or maybe I'm making that up.

Dubas would have liked him to sign, but his pitch to Knies wasn't very aggressive. He was more than okay with Knies staying back another year.

 

[NewZealandMike]

Dubas would have liked him to sign, but his pitch to Knies wasn't very aggressive. He was more than okay with Knies staying back another year.

Knies has 17 goals this year already surpassing last years total of 15. He is third in the NCAA in goals scored. These totals exclude 2 exhibition games played Dec 28 and Dec 30 on a by week against USA U18 team and a non league game where he scored 3 more goals not included in his totals.
All of this from a huge power forward not a typical highly skilled small player.
The Gophers have 6 more games before the playoffs with which Knies will exceed last years point totals and continue to add to his goal totals before starting the march to the NCAA title.
The next 3 doubleheader sets are all against 0.500 teams

 

[hotpaws]

My understanding is Dubas was on his hands and knees begging for Knies to sign last year, or maybe I'm making that up.

yup pretty much , flew out to see him in person to beg him to sign

 

[D00bis]

Matt Boldy would be a good comparable (not playing style) but size and career course so far. Played the extra year at BC has a cup of coffee in the AHL then puts up 15 goals/39 pts in the top 6 with the wild.

 

[NewZealandMike]

Matt Boldy would be a good comparable (not playing style) but size and career course so far. Played the extra year at BC has a cup of coffee in the AHL then puts up 15 goals/39 pts in the top 6 with the wild.

That would be a great addition if Knies can replicate that from a much bigger player than Boldy

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Ah yes we are at the point where Dubas flying out to meet with our top prospect is a negative! You folks need to get another hobby.

 

[fahad203]

Matt Boldy would be a good comparable (not playing style) but size and career course so far. Played the extra year at BC has a cup of coffee in the AHL then puts up 15 goals/39 pts in the top 6 with the wild.

A very good comparison. At this point a good skater with size will be really helpful to our line up
Not expecting him to be in the lineup this year, as much as I would like to see that happen

I always hoped that one of our rookies would have an impact like Eric Cole did for Carolina like 20 years ago. I remembrer Eric Cole coming into the playoffs and going toe to toe with Gary Robarts. That energy and vibe that Cole brought is dearly missing in this team

 

[NewZealandMike]

A very good comparison. At this point a good skater with size will be really helpful to our line up
Not expecting him to be in the lineup this year, as much as I would like to see that happen

I always hoped that one of our rookies would have an impact like Eric Cole did for Carolina like 20 years ago. I remembrer Eric Cole coming into the playoffs and going toe to toe with Gary Robarts. That energy and vibe that Cole brought is dearly missing in this team

Good watch from last year

 

[Martin Skoula]

They offered Knies a playoff role last spring.

Matthew Knies takes Matthews’ advice, aims to ‘give Maple Leafs a boost’ in 2023 – Sportsnet.ca

www.sportsnet.ca

I don’t understand how this is unique to Knies when a 19 year old Robertson got the same treatment. If Minten doesn’t get traded and takes some steps next year, he’s probably going to get a look next year too.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Knies didn't sign last year cause he wanted to run it back and try to win a championship with his team. I for one see this as a positive and would like a few more players that give a damn about winning rather than just getting paid.

 

[hotpaws]

Ah yes we are at the point where Dubas flying out to meet with our top prospect is a negative! You folks need to get another hobby.

who said it was a negative ?

 

[francis246]

Not that I don't agree with you or believe you, but do you have a quote for this? I'm sure that they've touted him, but did they even say that they hoped that he could jump right in?

I thought that it was all media and fan hype up until this point.

It obviously make sense, just not sure if they've dangled that carrot yet.

It’s not just media hype. I believe Dubas talked about it last year when addressing the failed trade with Chicago. They see him as a guy who can step in and that was apart of he pitch they made to him. I don’t think they specified the role (whether it was to be 2LW or another role) but I do think the organization does see him as a potential internal solution for that 2LW spot.

Another part of it is that Knies depending on his join date won’t be eligible to play with the Marlies this year.

who said it was a negative ?

You’re not allowed to have fun or make jokes at Dubas’ expense on these boards my friend lmao!

 

[Dekes For Days]

5'10" and 174 pounds would probably put Pontus Holmberg on the average size of Leaf picks over the years.

It would actually put him a bit below average in height and weight, despite being drafted as a 19 year old. If a 19 year old, that's below average weight and height for our draft picks, drafted in the 6th round - exactly the type of prospect you would have written off - can turn into a 6 ft, 200+ lb NHLer, maybe you're searching for problems that aren't there.

Just keep an open mind and draft purposefully for those bottom six, bottom pair roles and a goalie every year or two is all I ask. I'm fine trying to hit a Kaprizov home run every year, but also want to see guys who are on separate promotion paths, different time tables.

That's literally what we do.

Over the past 5 drafts, we've drafted 10 centers, 10 wingers, 11 defensemen, and 4 goalies.
Height has ranged from 5'8" to 6'5".
Weight has ranged from 147 to 210 lbs.
Age has ranged from 17 to 20+.

We've made a wide variety of draft picks, of different types, on different paths.
You just hyperfocus on the smaller ones, who are largely later round picks and thus longshots in the first place regardless of size.

If Knies is a player type we are all excited about, those attributes should be valued more.

The biggest reason people are excited about him is because of his skill, not his size.

I'd look at the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draft classes as full of players who just don't project well for future NHL roles. Maybe they have some skill, but not enough for a top 6, top 4 role. And not built for the bottom 6 or bottom pair.

Who says they don't project well for future NHL roles? You seem to have this archaic belief that certain roles can't be played unless you have (or worse, are drafted with) a certain build, and that's just not true. You would have said Holmberg wasn't suited for a bottom-six role when he was drafted, and look at him now, playing in the bottom six of a top tier NHL team. In fact, we have 6 draft picks from 2018 that have played in the NHL, including 3 that have grabbed full-time roles, so it's a bit of a stretch to say that they're full of players who don't project well.

Plus, our top pick in 2019 is looking like an NHLer and would probably be there now if he wasn't injured, despite being a young draft pick that had his development set back by covid/injuries.
Our top pick in 2020 would probably be in the NHL right now if he didn't get brain cancer.
And it's pretty early to be writing off the others from these drafts, especially with many of them playing well in the AHL or professional leagues.

In 2018, 2019, and 2020, we needed value from our picks above all else, to replenish the prospect pool that Lou had depleted. Our prospect pool was already stuffed with giant, bulking guys from the previous few drafts, so of course we're going to use some later picks to exploit inefficiencies in the drafting system and grab some younger or smaller guys with boom potential.

Their 2018-2020 draft classes are littered with guys stuck at the minor league levels we can’t promote because they aren’t skilled enough for top 6 roles and aren’t big enough for depth roles. That’s why Knies is on the fast track. Is it really that controversial to suggest that Fusco, Miller, Schingoethe, Rindell, Abramov, Miettinen, SDA, Hollowell and co. aren’t that useful for the big club?

You just named two 7th round picks, three 6th round picks, two 4th round picks, and a 3rd round pick - majority drafted in 2020 - and you're wondering why they aren't getting to the team as fast as a 2nd round pick that took leaps forward after being drafted?

But it's UFA signing Bobby McMann who is getting a longer look. It's Pontus Holmberg with a heavier body who can play a bottom 6 role who has a real NHL job. And this is why Knies is getting fast tracked.

We've had a lot of players of all different types get looks and look good this year. McMann and Holmberg aren't there because they're big and heavy. They're there because (outside of Robertson being injured) they're older, were given time to develop, and they're defensively responsible. The team isn't excited for Knies because he's big. They're excited for Knies because he's incredibly skilled.

 

[francis246]

It would actually put him a bit below average in height and weight, despite being drafted as a 19 year old. If a 19 year old, that's below average weight and height for our draft picks, drafted in the 6th round - exactly the type of prospect you would have written off - can turn into a 6 ft, 200+ lb NHLer, maybe you're searching for problems that aren't there.

That's literally what we do.

Over the past 5 drafts, we've drafted 10 centers, 10 wingers, 11 defensemen, and 4 goalies.
Height has ranged from 5'8" to 6'5".
Weight has ranged from 147 to 210 lbs.
Age has ranged from 17 to 20+.

We've made a wide variety of draft picks, of different types, on different paths.
You just hyperfocus on the smaller ones, who are largely later round picks and thus longshots in the first place regardless of size.

The biggest reason people are excited about him is because of his skill, not his size.

Who says they don't project well for future NHL roles? You seem to have this archaic belief that certain roles can't be played unless you have (or worse, are drafted with) a certain build, and that's just not true. You would have said Holmberg wasn't suited for a bottom-six role when he was drafted, and look at him now, playing in the bottom six of a top tier NHL team. In fact, we have 6 draft picks from 2018 that have played in the NHL, including 3 that have grabbed full-time roles, so it's a bit of a stretch to say that they're full of players who don't project well.

Plus, our top pick in 2019 is looking like an NHLer and would probably be there now if he wasn't injured, despite being a young draft pick that also had his development set back by covid and injuries.
Our top pick in 2020 would probably be in the NHL right now if he didn't get brain cancer.
And it's pretty early to be writing off the others from these drafts, especially with many of them playing well in the AHL or professional leagues.

In 2018, 2019, and 2020, we needed value from our picks above all else, to replenish the prospect pool that Lou had depleted. Our prospect pool was already stuffed with giant, bulking guys from the previous few drafts, so of course we're going to use some later picks to exploit inefficiencies in the drafting system and grab some younger or smaller guys with boom potential.

You just named two 7th round picks, three 6th round picks, two 4th round picks, and a 3rd round pick - majority drafted in 2020 - and you're wondering why they aren't getting to the team as fast as a 2nd round pick that took leaps forward after being drafted?

We've had a lot of players of all different types get looks and look good this year. McMann and Holmberg aren't there because they're big and heavy. They're there because (outside of Robertson being injured) they're older, were given time to develop, and they're defensively responsible. The team isn't excited for Knies because he's big. They're excited for Knies because he's incredibly skilled.

A lot of great things you posted, but let’s not lie. Matthews Knies is completely different from anything or anyone we’ve drafted in the last 10 years. That is why everyone is excited. It’s his size and skill combination that makes him so intriguing. Not to mention he plays physical, which is something we haven’t had in one of our top prospects.

No one is just excited about his skill. Most people are excited because he brings a completely new element to our team that a lot of people feel the team lacks. And what’s even more exciting is we don’t have to move assets to have him on our team. Just have to sign him.

 

[Peace Frog]

Imagine what kind of learning curve he could be on, if he were to join the Leafs this season and see that his centerman is Toews or ROR!!

 

[Dekes For Days]

A lot of great things you posted, but let’s not lie. Matthews Knies is completely different from anything or anyone we’ve drafted in the last 10 years. That is why everyone is excited. It’s his size and skill combination that makes him so intriguing. Not to mention he plays physical, which is something we haven’t had in one of our top prospects.

No one is just excited about his skill. Most people are excited because he brings a completely new element to our team that a lot of people feel the team lacks. And what’s even more exciting is we don’t have to move assets to have him on our team. Just have to sign him.

If you think he brings a "completely new element" that our team hasn't seen in the past 10 years, then you have a misconception about either the team, or Knies, or both.
The biggest reason he's going to make the team isn't because he's big or physical. It's because he's incredibly skilled, at a really cheap price. He's really good at that hockey thing.

 

[Petrus]

A lot of great things you posted, but let’s not lie. Matthews Knies is completely different from anything or anyone we’ve drafted in the last 10 years. That is why everyone is excited. It’s his size and skill combination that makes him so intriguing. Not to mention he plays physical, which is something we haven’t had in one of our top prospects.

No one is just excited about his skill. Most people are excited because he brings a completely new element to our team that a lot of people feel the team lacks. And what’s even more exciting is we don’t have to move assets to have him on our team. Just have to sign him.

Since 2017, Toronto has drafted lots big players too .

These are the notably big ones (6’5 to 6’8):

Korshkov
Greenway
Gordeev
Rasanen
Middleton
Mattinen


I also excluded all goalies and the players around 6’2 to 6’4 (which are plenty).

None panned out unfortunately.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

My point isn't the Leafs drafting is brutal but given the importance that Knies represents, maybe pro size is actually more important than it has been in BPA evaluation in the past than skating, IQ and skills represents if it doesn't come in a pro body.

The Leafs have all but guaranteed Knies an automatic NHL spot in the playoffs coming straight out of college in a few months which tells us he's expected to bring a lot of attributes that don't exist with many of their drafted players who are developing on the Marlies.

Are SDA, Abruzzese, Abramov likely to get that promotion for a Tampa series? Not really. (SDA and Kral are also not NHL success stories by the way any more than your random Lightning or Boston call up).

Is it that he is “important” or that he is simply a unicorn? How many teams in the league have a player that fits the potential attributes that Knies does? Very, very few. It’s ultimately why you don’t/can’t make it a model for your drafting. It is almost nonexistent and the majority drafted around those characteristics fail expectations.

 

[francis246]

If you think he brings a "completely new element" that our team hasn't seen in the past 10 years, then you have a misconception about either the team, or Knies, or both.
The biggest reason he's going to make the team isn't because he's big or physical. It's because he's incredibly skilled, at a really cheap price. He's really good at that hockey thing.

Yes I do think Knies brings a new element. As I mentioned, it’s not just his skill. It’s the fact that he is a prospect that has a unique combination of skill and size. And he actually plays with some physicality. And if you think that skill alone is why Knies is making this roster you’re pretty delusional. He’s making it 1. because it’s the only place he can play when he does sign. 2. Because he’s exactly the type of forward Leafs have been trying to identify at the deadline and we don’t have to spend assets to trade for one if we finally have one in the system who can play. Top 6 two way forward who can play physical. Why is that so bad to admit?

Since 2017, Toronto has drafted lots big players too .

These are the notably big ones (6’5 to 6’8):

Korshkov
Greenway
Gordeev
Rasanen
Middleton
Mattinen

None panned out unfortunately.

Do any of those guys have the skill of Knies while also having that size? If not it proves my point. Knies wasn’t just some big guy pick. He’s hyped up because he’s a skilled guy who is big. Not because he’s a big guy.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He’s making it 1. because it’s the only place he can play when he does sign. 2. Because he’s exactly the type of forward Leafs have been trying to identify at the deadline and we don’t have to spend assets to trade for one if we finally have one in the system who can play. Top 6 two way forward who can play physical. Why is that so bad to admit?

He's likely to make it because his skills appear to be NHL quality, and he can provide value to the team at a really cheap price. You may like his size, but if he was 3 inches shorter, 20 lbs lighter ,and not particularly physical, he'd be in the same position because it's his skills that are driving him. I don't know why that's so bad to admit for some.

 

[egd27]

who said it was a negative ?

yup pretty much , flew out to see him in person to beg him to sign, because Dubas is an incredible GM that wants to ensure his players always know how much the organization cares about them

You should have included the bolded.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If you think he brings a "completely new element" that our team hasn't seen in the past 10 years, then you have a misconception about either the team, or Knies, or both.
The biggest reason he's going to make the team isn't because he's big or physical. It's because he's incredibly skilled, at a really cheap price. He's really good at that hockey thing.

His size lets him do things that a similarly skilled smaller prospect couldn’t, it’s silly to ignore such a major part of his game. Knowing how to use his size to open up more opportunities for his skill to take over is big.

 

[1specter]

but if he was 3 inches shorter, 20 lbs lighter ,and not particularly physical, he'd be in the same position because it's his skills that are driving him

Except those attributes are a factor in why he has success. Skill involves knowing how to use your physical advantages and traits to your benefit. I don't know why that's so hard to admit for you.