Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[Stephen]

It's not, but you've spent multiple pages in a Knies draft pick thread trying to create one.

And as I showed, in the post you ignored and refused to respond to, that we have drafted a diverse mix of prospects.

Over the past 5 drafts, we've drafted 10 centers, 10 wingers, 11 defensemen, and 4 goalies.
Height has ranged from 5'8" to 6'5".
Weight has ranged from 147 to 210 lbs.
Age has ranged from 17 to 20+.

We've also been leaning bigger more recently, as the older big prospects aged out as failures.

The problem is that you seem to only appreciate one kind of pick, and arbitrarily write off others that don't fit a specific profile.

Knies is a big player, the crown jewel of the prospect pool, and earmarked for immediate promotion upon finishing school. Doesn’t logic follow that we could use more of these types of players?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Knies is a big player, the crown jewel of the prospect pool, and earmarked for immediate promotion upon finishing school. Doesn’t logic follow that we could use more of these types of players?

Every team could use more top-tier, blue-chip prospects. What kind of question is that? But despite what you may think, they don't only come in one form.

 

[Stephen]

Size can be useful but if you don't have a base level of other skills size isn't going to make up for that

We picked a ton of big defenseman in the draft under Hunter and none of them were any good. They lacked basic puck skills and couldn't skate so they busted

Knies looks like he's going to be a player because he has the attributes you look for with the added bonus of size

There aren't many guys around like that so it's not really something you can draft for, big guys who have skills and can skate don't get out of the first round very often

Knies isn’t a top 5 pick unicorn though. You can find body body power forward and adjacent types of players well down the draft ranks every year.

Korshkov, Gordeev, Nielsen and Rasanen were bad picks but the player type was always fine.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Knies isn’t a top 5 pick unicorn though. You can find body body power forward and adjacent types of players well down the draft ranks every year.

Korshkov, Gordeev, Nielsen and Rasanen were bad picks but the player type was always fine.

Knies probably goes a lot earlier in a non-Covid year, that second round has a lot of early returns despite not being a high end draft.

 

[Kiwi]

Knies isn’t a top 5 pick unicorn though. You can find body body power forward and adjacent types of players well down the draft ranks every year.

Korshkov, Gordeev, Nielsen and Rasanen were bad picks but the player type was always fine.

If you look around the league there aren't a lot of big highly skilled guys that can skate and there's even fewer taken outside of the first round

If that type of player goes outside the first round there's usually a reason for it like skating or a lack of production etc

Some guys overcome those flaws but most don't so I don't think you can draft with that in mind

I'd just look for the right skills and attributes and see size as a bonus, nice to have but not a deal breaker

 

[Stephen]

If you look around the league there aren't a lot of big highly skilled guys that can skate and there's even fewer taken outside of the first round

If that type of player goes outside the first round there's usually a reason for it like skating or a lack of production etc

Some guys overcome those flaws but most don't so I don't think you can draft with that in mind

I'd just look for the right skills and attributes and see size as a bonus, nice to have but not a deal breaker

Size isn’t a bonus though. It’s an integrated feature in specific player types ranging from power forwards at the elite end to grinders and stay at home defensemen at the bottom end. There’s no shortage of bigger body players in the league either that were non first round picks filling out 1st to 4th lines or bottom pairing defensive units.

It’s like every time the Leafs have a shortage of something there’s always the notion that rest of the league doesn’t have it either and the game is progressing away from it.

 

[Peasy]

Just skimming through here.

Man this gotta be some of the dumbest discussions right now.

Knies has exceeded expectations since being drafted. He entered college a year later than most prospects, and saw stagnated stat progression between his D-1 and D. He is not the norm that some people are making him out to be. If people would have expected this type of play out of him he would have easily went in the first round and the Leafs would have never had the luxury of selecting him.

Not every big player you pick past round 1 is going to excel like Knies has.

You just have to look at the glut of horrendous big prospects that Lou took. Or how did Tyler Biggs work out? What about Brad Ross? For ever SDA you bring up, you can find plenty of tough big guys that never came close to the NHL. It goes both ways.

Dubas clearly thinks theres value in goin for boom or bust type prospects in later rounds. Not sure why people still complain about it. It will likely happen for as long as hes here.

 

[Kiwi]

Size isn’t a bonus though. It’s an integrated feature in specific player types ranging from power forwards at the elite end to grinders and stay at home defensemen at the bottom end. There’s no shortage of bigger body players in the league either that were non first round picks filling out 1st to 4th lines or bottom pairing defensive units.

It’s like every time the Leafs have a shortage of something there’s always the notion that rest of the league doesn’t have it either and the game is progressing away from it.

You can get cheap 4th line forwards and bottom pairing defenseman as free agents or bring them in as UFA'S and develop them in the system so drafting big guys so they can do those jobs doesn't mean much to me

At the draft I'd look for ceiling, I'm more than happy to get a Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson type that aren't big men but could top out as top 6 forwards or top 4 defenseman rather than focus on size

Knies is an excellent pick but I wouldn't be scouring lists looking for 6'2 and 200 pounds and over

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm really curious who these blue-chip giants drafted 2018-2020 in the 2nd round or later are.

 

[francis246]

Just skimming through here.

Man this gotta be some of the dumbest discussions right now.

Knies has exceeded expectations since being drafted. He entered college a year later than most prospects, and saw stagnated stat progression between his D-1 and D. He is not the norm that some people are making him out to be. If people would have expected this type of play out of him he would have easily went in the first round and the Leafs would have never had the luxury of selecting him.

Not every big player you pick past round 1 is going to excel like Knies has.

You just have to look at the glut of horrendous big prospects that Lou took. Or how did Tyler Biggs work out? What about Brad Ross? For ever SDA you bring up, you can find plenty of tough big guys that never came close to the NHL. It goes both ways.

Dubas clearly thinks theres value in goin for boom or bust type prospects in later rounds. Not sure why people still complain about it. It will likely happen for as long as hes here.

I get what you’re saying. However it’s all about balance, you can’t completely ignore it. Which I don’t think the leafs do. I think the Leafs have had bad experiences with it because in the past they completely ignored the skill part. They just went big. Why is it that so many other teams have found success drafting bigger players then?But you can find 6’1, 6’2 skilled guys that aren’t afraid to play with some jam. Big doesn’t necessarily mean 6’5, 6’7” and I think that’s where there’s a lot of contention between fans because the definition of big is so ambiguous.

The funniest part is we keep saying skill triumphs everything when we know damn well that isn’t true. I think we are forced to believe it’s true because that’s the make up our team. If it was true the leafs would have had a ton more success in the playoffs. Many former players and analysts continuously mention it to be the fatal flaw of the team. You need that jam and grit somewhere in the line up, I think Knies is a start. He’s a player that will bring some of that moving forward in different areas like on the forecheck and net front which is what we need.

 

[NewZealandMike]

Every team could use more top-tier, blue-chip prospects. What kind of question is that? But despite what you may think, they don't only come in one form.

We lack size, our defence is small across the board in stature and style.
Tampa Bay has 7 D all over 200lb, 6 over 220lb, from 6'2" to 6'7"
That's going to be very hard for our forwards.

 

[crump]

The NHL regular season ends Thursday April 13, 2023. Last year the Gophers lost out in the frozen four on April 7th. If he signs a contact after, it doesn't give much time to evaluate him with the Leafs (Especially if the Gophers go further this season.)

I don't think you can look on Knies as a reason not to go out and try to improve your top 6. He will not have proven anything at the NHL level, obviously before the trade deadline. I also believe you don't trade him to improve your top 6 because you know teams will start with a 1st and Knies for anybody worth getting for that 2nd line LW spot. His play in University has been excellent.

I was underwhelmed by his performance in pre-season Rookie Tournament this year. I doubt it was a true indicator of his skill and level of play, but it would have been good to see him absolutely dominate that tournament to give Dubas a better idea of his worth, be it joining the Leafs or as a trade chip.

Regardless, it's truly intriguing to see what he could do with NHL players.

 

[hotpaws]

Just skimming through here.

Man this gotta be some of the dumbest discussions right now.

Knies has exceeded expectations since being drafted. He entered college a year later than most prospects, and saw stagnated stat progression between his D-1 and D. He is not the norm that some people are making him out to be. If people would have expected this type of play out of him he would have easily went in the first round and the Leafs would have never had the luxury of selecting him.

Not every big player you pick past round 1 is going to excel like Knies has.

You just have to look at the glut of horrendous big prospects that Lou took. Or how did Tyler Biggs work out? What about Brad Ross? For ever SDA you bring up, you can find plenty of tough big guys that never came close to the NHL. It goes both ways.

Dubas clearly thinks there's value in goin for boom or bust type prospects in later rounds. Not sure why people still complain about it. It will likely happen for as long as hes here.

people are discussing it because none of his many many smurf picks have gone boom , hell there's not even one that's made the team on a permanent basis but i guess since Dubie loves his smurfs we as fans are supposed to defend his obsession with wee tiny players to the death

the fact is , the vast majority of every teams picks bust or become nothing more than fringe players regardless of size . picking large amounts of 5'-9"/10" 170lbish outside of the 1st/2nd isn't some recipe for success since you can really have only so many in your lineup even if they could be become decent NHLers

 

[Judas Tavares]

Pretty good company, 3rd. and 23rd. overall teammates.

Is it a better team this year?

View attachment 643916

I might not be the best to answer, I've watched some Gophers this year. Snuggerud and Cooley are immediately far better than their top scorers last year in Meyers and McLaughlin. Returning defencemen LaCombe, Faber, Johnson and the Leafs own Koster have all improved and I believe the team has better depth. No clue about the goaltending.

@Menzinger would likely have better analysis.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We lack size, our defence is small across the board in stature and style.
Tampa Bay has 7 D all over 200lb, 6 over 220lb, from 6'2" to 6'7"
That's going to be very hard for our forwards.

Our size is fine, and our defense actually isn't that small.
Tampa may have some giants on the back-end, but does that mean it's going to be hard for our forwards, or does that mean it's going to be hard for their defenders to keep pace?
Probably a bit of both. There are always trade-offs, which some people don't seem to get.
And for all of their redwoods, we've been a better defensive team than them.

 

[kb]

Well for one, SDA's biggest obstacle has always been his shot and goal-scoring. That's a strength for Knies.
These prospects have nothing to do with each other. There are many differences between them other than size.
You've cherry picked a long-term project who hasn't yet made it (despite tracking well), and a higher drafted player who exploded post-draft, and are trying to turn this into a referendum on size, while ignoring all of other differences and the countless examples we have of bigger players busting outright, long before getting to where SDA is now.
I also notice a continued lack of response to my posts and questions, so not sure why I'm even bothering responding to you.

I wouldn't argue with someone who can't (and has no desire to) see beyond their own biases, no matter how obviously wrong their posts are

This is how you draft.

1) Talent + size
2) Talent
3) Size

Again, it's ridiculous to draft for size when there is no talent.

This is why Dubas has been arguably the best drafting GM the Leafs have ever had. He's not stupid like GM's and those who wish it was 1980's Norris Division, which no longer exists in any form.....

 

[D00bis]

I understand the argument that “there’s plenty of big power forward types to be had in the nhl” but it’s the combination of size, grit, scoring ability mixed with take a ways and dog on a bone defensive attributes that Knies possess that have me excited. I hope management invests development time and effort into this kid

 

[egd27]

i guess i should include the bolded with everyone of my posts , lol

well if you're discussing our incredible GM.....yes

 

[Kiwi]

I get what you’re saying. However it’s all about balance, you can’t completely ignore it. Which I don’t think the leafs do. I think the Leafs have had bad experiences with it because in the past they completely ignored the skill part. They just went big. Why is it that so many other teams have found success drafting bigger players then?But you can find 6’1, 6’2 skilled guys that aren’t afraid to play with some jam. Big doesn’t necessarily mean 6’5, 6’7” and I think that’s where there’s a lot of contention between fans because the definition of big is so ambiguous.

The funniest part is we keep saying skill triumphs everything when we know damn well that isn’t true. I think we are forced to believe it’s true because that’s the make up our team. If it was true the leafs would have had a ton more success in the playoffs. Many former players and analysts continuously mention it to be the fatal flaw of the team. You need that jam and grit somewhere in the line up, I think Knies is a start. He’s a player that will bring some of that moving forward in different areas like on the forecheck and net front which is what we need.

There are less 6'1 6'2 guys who play with some jam and can produce in a top 6 role than you think, that's why most of us salivate over guys that fit that description in the trades thread and almost nobody wants to trade Knies

Guys who already have those qualities go high in the draft, they don't seem to be that easy to develop and nobody wants to trade them when they do get one

I just don't see how you can use it as a draft strategy, I don't particularly like the little skill guys that don't already have high end skating or aren't willing to compete and get there nose dirty but we have done ok with smaller guys in the later rounds like Johnsson, Brown, Holmberg and big but non physical guys like Engvall

 

[Stephen]

I wouldn't argue with someone who can't (and has no desire to) see beyond their own biases, no matter how obviously wrong their posts are

This is how you draft.

1) Talent + size
2) Talent
3) Size

Again, it's ridiculous to draft for size when there is no talent.

This is why Dubas has been arguably the best drafting GM the Leafs have ever had. He's not stupid like GM's and those who wish it was 1980's Norris Division, which no longer exists in any form.....

High talent level without pro frame is as useless as Jeremy Bracco. Size without talent is as useless as Eemeli Rasanen. It’s indisputable that you need a mix of both and that’s the crux of the argument.

 

[francis246]

There are less 6'1 6'2 guys who play with some jam and can produce in a top 6 role than you think, that's why most of us salivate over guys that fit that description in the trades thread and almost nobody wants to trade Knies

Guys who already have those qualities go high in the draft, they don't seem to be that easy to develop and nobody wants to trade them when they do get one

I just don't see how you can use it as a draft strategy, I don't particularly like the little skill guys that don't already have high end skating or aren't willing to compete and get there nose dirty but we have done ok with smaller guys in the later rounds like Johnsson, Brown, Holmberg and big but non physical guys like Engvall

I can buy that notion. I think it just depends on what you value as a fan. I love hockey so I watch lots of different games nightly. I love the leafs as much as the next guy. What I get from watching other teams is that those teams like Tampa, Boston, St. Louis, Los Angeles & Dallas, ingrain that style of play. So maybe you’re right maybe it’s not about drafting so much as having that be your team culture.

 

[BertCorbeau]

people are discussing it because none of his many many smurf picks have gone boom , hell there's not even one that's made the team on a permanent basis but i guess since Dubie loves his smurfs we as fans are supposed to defend his obsession with wee tiny players to the death

the fact is , the vast majority of every teams picks bust or become nothing more than fringe players regardless of size . picking large amounts of 5'-9"/10" 170lbish outside of the 1st/2nd isn't some recipe for success since you can really have only so many in your lineup even if they could be become decent NHLers

How many is too many though?

From the 3rd round on, Dubas has selected 8 players under 5'11 in his 5 years of drafting so far out of 28 selections. That's less than a third.

I don't think Dubas cares much about size. He targets BPA that focuses on skill and hockey IQ. By all accounts he looks for value in his pick by using advanced stats and underlaying numbers.

A recent article from The Athletic had the Leafs' prospect pool ranked 18th. It's fairly mid-tier but considering the Leafs haven't had a 1st round pick to considering since 2018 (Amirov's status is up in the air) that can speak to the solid drafting done beyond the first round.

 

[francis246]

High talent level without pro frame is as useless as Jeremy Bracco. Size without talent is as useless as Eemeli Rasanen. It’s indisputable that you need a mix of both and that’s the crux of the argument.

Yup, you can go back to any of our posts I think myself, you and others have said what makes Matthew Knies so intriguing is his combination of size and skill about 100 times.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

High talent level without pro frame is as useless as Jeremy Bracco. Size without talent is as useless as Eemeli Rasanen. It’s indisputable that you need a mix of both and that’s the crux of the argument.

Not true at all. The next generational talent is a shrimp named Connor Bedard. Size without talent is actually useless. There is no equating them

 

[Stephen]

There are less 6'1 6'2 guys who play with some jam and can produce in a top 6 role than you think, that's why most of us salivate over guys that fit that description in the trades thread and almost nobody wants to trade Knies

Guys who already have those qualities go high in the draft, they don't seem to be that easy to develop and nobody wants to trade them when they do get one

I just don't see how you can use it as a draft strategy, I don't particularly like the little skill guys that don't already have high end skating or aren't willing to compete and get there nose dirty but we have done ok with smaller guys in the later rounds like Johnsson, Brown, Holmberg and big but non physical guys like Engvall

Jamie Benn, Anders Lee, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Brandon Saad, Josh Anderson, Miles Wood, Drake Batherson, Mark Stone, Yegor Sarangovich, Michael Bastian, Nick Paul, Tanner Jeannot are just a few names off the top of my head that would be non first round big body NHL versatile players. Quite a few of them are Ottawa and Dallas products. It’s not an accident some organizations go and find these types on a consistent basis.