Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[BertCorbeau]

which one's of our draft picks are Crosby or Makar , lol

the poster i replied to used 5'11'' and i responded using his criteria , no idea how you missed that

yup it looks like his first draft is his best since it turned out 3 NHLers , i guess it's just coincidence it also was the one he had the least input in since he just took over , lol

and just an fyi , your life will not change one iota if the team doesn't get by the first rd and Dubie is dismissed , they'll be another GM you can worship and if he fails they'll be another one after that so regardless how many GM's the team employs during your lifetime your day to day life will not be affected in any way

I didn’t use 5’11, I said under 5’11 which was the same as you said.

 

[tmlms13]

Because that's one of the most ridiculous comments ever made on this site.

It's as if you haven't read a single comment.

Booooo

Edmonton just randomly put a university goalie into a game by choice.

Why not put a NFL player into a NHL game?

 

[notbias]

i quickly went through Dubies draft's , i counted 17 picks 5'11'' and under out of 35 picks as well as a fair number a couple of inches shorter , that seems like too many especially if you considered our needs when he took over

there's no such thing as BPA outside of very very top of the draft for the most part , it just comes down to teams personal preferences and Dubie got too wrapped up in trying to draft in what he believed to be ''draft inefficencies'' which he thought were smurfs and overagers

it's hard trying to find an impact player after the 2nd rd regardless of size and people are right when they say big skilled guys usually don't drop that far but neither do very skilled 5'10''/11'' guys either

usually what your left with is big guys who have some attributes but are projects and smaller somewhat skilled guys who produce at the lower levels but aren't good enough to transition their game to the NHL

and as i said in my previous post , the vast majority of picks amount to nothing regardless of size so that's why i'm not one of these posters who believe you can get 2-3 quality players every draft , i'd be more than happy with our drafting if we could hit on two top 6/9 frwds or top 4 D every 3 drafts as well as another depth player or two who can stick and fill a lower role

Wait so over 50% of the picks are OVER 5'11 that we draft? The average NHL height is only 6'1.

I'm beginning to think we don't even draft that much smaller than other teams if we do at all.

There is such a thing as BPA outside of the top of the draft, the scouts watch A LOT more tape than anyone else here, I'd assume they have a list of players who really stood out and probably have them ranked, it's how someone like Ryan Tverberg was picked, who I believe they swapped picks to grab.

 

[Kiwi]

I can buy that notion. I think it just depends on what you value as a fan. I love hockey so I watch lots of different games nightly. I love the leafs as much as the next guy. What I get from watching other teams is that those teams like Tampa, Boston, St. Louis, Los Angeles & Dallas, ingrain that style of play. So maybe you’re right maybe it’s not about drafting so much as having that be your team culture.

I think a lot of teams take on the makeup of it's core players

Look at Boston, there best players tend to have some nastiness about them

Our team plays like it's core players, very skilled but they don't have a really nasty edge like the Boston boys do

I'm not even saying it's right or wrong, it just is

 

[Stephen]

Arent we mindful of the mix though? Hasnt that been shown throughout the thread? From guys you and others have mentioned in Rasanen, Korshkov, Knies through to the opposite smurf esque players like Bracco, Voit, etc

The 2018-2020 drafts don’t have a lot to offer in terms of bottom 6 and big body defensive options though. Think that’s why we’re seeing Knies get earmarked for promotion and longer shot mature prospects like McMann get to the Leafs before their picks. Granted some specific lower in the roster jobs are better suited for more mature prospects, so we’re seeing the consequences of the Hunter drafts not panning out either. Would have made a difference if Korshkov and Rasanen and Gordeev had actually panned out.

 

[kb]

Just a reminder....there is a thread meant for those who wish to take their drafting grievances about how the Leafs might be drafting too many NHL players whose size doesn't appeal to them, even though some are big.

This thread is about Matthew Knies.

I'll even link it below for everyone's ease.

Prospect Info: - Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2023-23 Season Edition

 

[Kiwi]

Jamie Benn, Anders Lee, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Brandon Saad, Josh Anderson, Miles Wood, Drake Batherson, Mark Stone, Yegor Sarangovich, Michael Bastian, Nick Paul, Tanner Jeannot are just a few names off the top of my head that would be non first round big body NHL versatile players. Quite a few of them are Ottawa and Dallas products. It’s not an accident some organizations go and find these types on a consistent basis.

It's a 32 team league, if you extrapolate physical players 6'1 and over in important roles (top 4 D or top 9 forward) picked outside of the first round it's a small percentage of players your talking about

If you draft for that you are seriously limiting the amount of talent you are likely to bring in

 

[Stephen]

It's a 32 team league, if you extrapolate physical players 6'1 and over in important roles (top 4 D or top 9 forward) picked outside of the first round it's a small percentage of players your talking about

If you draft for that you are seriously limiting the amount of talent you are likely to bring in

Talent also needs to be translatable into actual NHL roles though. No doubt Timashov, Bracco, Dzierkals, Robertson, Der-Arguchitsev, we’re and are high ceiling players on draft day. But they also have non NHL floors.

So effectively, these picks may not be any more useful than big bodies that bust for other reasons.

 

[LeafSteel]

Boy I can’t wait to see Matthew Knies on this team after his collegiate season is over!

Matthew Knies is an exciting prospect for us!

I’m happy Matthew Knies is our pick and we could see him in our lineup sometime this season!

Hooray for Matthews Knies!!!

 

[kb]

Talent also needs to be translatable into actual NHL roles though. No doubt Timashov, Bracco, Dzierkals, Robertson, Der-Arguchitsev, we’re and are high ceiling players on draft day. But they also have non NHL floors.

So effectively, these picks may not be any more useful than big bodies that bust for other reasons.

Like busting because they are big while having no talent at all to speak of?

Matthew Knies is what happens when you catch a break on a player who had a very average D year after a very good D-1.

 

[Kiwi]

Talent also needs to be translatable into actual NHL roles though. No doubt Timashov, Bracco, Dzierkals, Robertson, Der-Arguchitsev, we’re and are high ceiling players on draft day. But they also have non NHL floors.

So effectively, these picks may not be any more useful than big bodies that bust for other reasons.

They may not and I can't say I was a fan when we drafted most of those players but you can't shy away from small guys if you think they have high ceilings either

I'd much rather take a gigantic hack on a talented Smurf and miss than take a guy like Freddy the Goat

 

[Stephen]

Like busting because they are big while having no talent at all to speak of?

Matthew Knies is what happens when you catch a break on a player who had a very average D year after a very good D-1.

You can be a Tyler Biggs bust who can't play due to a bad skillset or you could be a Jeremy Bracco with a good skillset but not to play in the league. Both are bad picks for different reasons, but doesn't invalidate either player type. Just pick both in moderation and groom them to fill different roles.

 

[Stephen]

They may not and I can't say I was a fan when we drafted most of those players but you can't shy away from small guys if you think they have high ceilings either

I'd much rather take a gigantic hack on a talented Smurf and miss than take a guy like Freddy the Goat

I'd rather take both types now and again and see what develops so different needs can be filled on the big club.

From a BPA point of view, I can't say a small player who can't hang in the top 6 and gets pushed around in the bottom 6 and ends up in the press box is any better than a big man who can't receive a pass and trips all over themselves. Both are bad results.

 

[Kiwi]

I'd rather take both types now and again and see what develops so different needs can be filled on the big club.

From a BPA point of view, I can't say a small player who can't hang in the top 6 and gets pushed around in the bottom 6 and ends up in the press box is any better than a big man who can't receive a pass and trips all over themselves. Both are bad results.

They are and I think that's why you take the guy with the best blend of attributes no matter what his size is

We've got some bigger guys in the system that seem to be progressing pretty well and some of the smaller guys are doing pretty well to

 

[Gallagbi]

The 2018-2020 drafts don’t have a lot to offer in terms of bottom 6 and big body defensive options though. Think that’s why we’re seeing Knies get earmarked for promotion and longer shot mature prospects like McMann get to the Leafs before their picks. Granted some specific lower in the roster jobs are better suited for more mature prospects, so we’re seeing the consequences of the Hunter drafts not panning out either. Would have made a difference if Korshkov and Rasanen and Gordeev had actually panned out.

Again, this seems to come back to quality and not variety of player, even with narrow timelines between some "bigger" drafts.

Knies is a top prospect because hes a Hobey Baker nominee. His hype is driven by productivity, like Caufield when he followed a similar path and progression. This isnt Kyle Clifford making the show at 19. Make Knies a similar undersized prospect and hes still being hyper and getting a look....like Roberson in the bubble

McMann is a 26 year old who has 8 GP to date. Hes behind an injured Robertson and Holmberg from those drafts you listed. He seems to be fighting for a spot with 6'0 Anderson at the moment. Same age a Engvall fwiw

I get if you want to argue we should draft bigger and heavier (or simply better), theres an argument for it, but dont hide it under the guise of diversity.

 

[Menzinger]

I might not be the best to answer, I've watched some Gophers this year. Snuggerud and Cooley are immediately far better than their top scorers last year in Meyers and McLaughlin. Returning defencemen LaCombe, Faber, Johnson and the Leafs own Koster have all improved and I believe the team has better depth. No clue about the goaltending.

@Menzinger would likely have better analysis.

I definitely think it's a better team - there's a lot of skill throughout the lineup, including high end skill but they're still running things as a group (I actually think if a few of their high end guys were on other teams they'd actually have better personal stats).

People were excited here for last seasons team - but it's this year's group really has folks buzzing

 

[Menzinger]

What's the earliest date Knies could join the team?

It depends on how things go. I think potentially around the 25th of March if the Gophers flop. If they go to the finals (which they have a good shot at) it would be around April 8/9th.

 

[keonsbitterness]

What's the earliest date Knies could join the team?

Tomorrow if he decides to drop out of school and sign a contract. But realistically, April. He could also stay in school another year.

Wait so over 50% of the picks are OVER 5'11 that we draft? The average NHL height is only 6'1.

I'm beginning to think we don't even draft that much smaller than other teams if we do at all.

There is such a thing as BPA outside of the top of the draft, the scouts watch A LOT more tape than anyone else here, I'd assume they have a list of players who really stood out and probably have them ranked, it's how someone like Ryan Tverberg was picked, who I believe they swapped picks to grab.

As I understand it, after the top end prospects they group the remaining players into tiers and choose from among that tier assuming no one in a higher tier has fallen. Then there are the off-the-board gambles in the late rounds on obscure overseas players or the trainer's 3rd cousin.

 

[namttebih]

They offered Knies a playoff role last spring.

Matthew Knies takes Matthews’ advice, aims to ‘give Maple Leafs a boost’ in 2023 – Sportsnet.ca

www.sportsnet.ca

They offered Knies a playoff role last spring.

Matthew Knies takes Matthews’ advice, aims to ‘give Maple Leafs a boost’ in 2023 – Sportsnet.ca

www.sportsnet.ca

Thanks for that.

He sounds like a pretty confident guy. People on the main boards would have you believe he's going to pull an Adam Fox because he chose to go back to school this year. Reading that interview pretty much puts that idea to bed in my opinion. It sounds like he has a lot of respect for the organization and idolized Matthews growing up.

It’s not just media hype. I believe Dubas talked about it last year when addressing the failed trade with Chicago. They see him as a guy who can step in and that was apart of he pitch they made to him. I don’t think they specified the role (whether it was to be 2LW or another role) but I do think the organization does see him as a potential internal solution for that 2LW spot.

Another part of it is that Knies depending on his join date won’t be eligible to play with the Marlies this year.



You’re not allowed to have fun or make jokes at Dubas’ expense on these boards my friend lmao!

Why is that?

 

[TheGreatOne11]

Boy I can’t wait to see Matthew Knies on this team after his collegiate season is over!

Matthew Knies is an exciting prospect for us!

I’m happy Matthew Knies is our pick and we could see him in our lineup sometime this season!

Hooray for Matthews Knies!!!

 

[meefer]

From what I've read, and what little I've seen, Knies is prospect for the Leafs that intrigues me this year and moving forward. That said, I'm hesitant to see him move into a top 2 line position should he sign after the Gophers season is over if only because he'd be facing some serious talent, with no time to get used to the demands of the NHL. At best, I can see him being an effective 3rd liner, but I'd hope to see an upgrade at 3C to help him utilize the skills he has. Kamph's defensive awareness would help support Knies's transition to the show, but I would prefer to have someone who is more dynamic than Kamph to help maximize MK's offensive abilities. MK's tool set looks sufficient to play in the league, he has the size to be effective, but I suspect it will come down to his confidence as he transitions.

 

[francis246]

Thanks for that.

He sounds like a pretty confident guy. People on the main boards would have you believe he's going to pull an Adam Fox because he chose to go back to school this year. Reading that interview pretty much puts that idea to bed in my opinion. It sounds like he has a lot of respect for the organization and idolized Matthews growing up.


Why is that?

It has to do with the AHL roster freeze around that time. He would be joining after that date so they can’t assign him there. Weird rule but it’s there unfortunately

 

[TML Dynasty]

From what I've read, and what little I've seen, Knies is prospect for the Leafs that intrigues me this year and moving forward. That said, I'm hesitant to see him move into a top 2 line position should he sign after the Gophers season is over if only because he'd be facing some serious talent, with no time to get used to the demands of the NHL. At best, I can see him being an effective 3rd liner, but I'd hope to see an upgrade at 3C to help him utilize the skills he has. Kamph's defensive awareness would help support Knies's transition to the show, but I would prefer to have someone who is more dynamic than Kamph to help maximize MK's offensive abilities. MK's tool set looks sufficient to play in the league, he has the size to be effective, but I suspect it will come down to his confidence as he transitions.

Knies Henrique Jankrok?

 

[meefer]

Knies Henrique Jankrok?

I've been reading the Henrique ideas in the trade thread. I've not seen enough of his game to give a responsible answer. Is he a competent defensive C, as I think you'd want that support with a rookie? Moving Jarnkrok to that line opens up a need for a 2LW.

One player I have curiousity about: Mikael Backlund. I think Calgary is in tough to get the wild card. Their forward group is aging. Backlund at 5.4 is expensive, but according to Dom's model at the Athletic he's playing at a value of 6.6 and shows a 98th percentile defensively, while putting up 9G/20A in 50G. He can PK and would be able to deal with the minutes at 3C. Is he an upgrade over a Henrique? Yes?? How much would he cost in a trade? I'd guess Kerfoot would have to go the other way for cap purposes. What else?

 

[Dekes For Days]

The 2018-2020 drafts don’t have a lot to offer in terms of bottom 6 and big body defensive options though.

That's just not true though.
Even with the prospects from these drafts still developing, we already have 2 NHL defensemen and 1 NHL forward from the 2018 draft.
We'd likely have 1 more NHL forward from 2019 if they didn't get injured, and 1 more NHL forward from 2020 if they didn't get brain cancer.
And many more developing well.

We do also have some bigger prospects from those drafts (Holmberg 6'0", 200 lbs... Kral 6'2", 200 lbs... Kokkonen 6'0", 200 lbs... Villeneuve 6'2"... Schingoethe 200 lbs...), but again, you don't need to be that for bottom-six/bottom pair roles, and again, we didn't need a bunch of giants in the 2018-2020 drafts because we had already drafted a bunch of giants in the previous few drafts. Aren't you the one talking about diversifying your pool? Or does that only count when you want more of the prospects you like? And why are you ignoring the 2021 and 2022 drafts?

Think that’s why we’re seeing Knies get earmarked for promotion and longer shot mature prospects like McMann get to the Leafs before their picks.

Again, Knies is earmarked for promotion because he's a top tier prospect based on his skills. McMann is one of many options (some of which were tiny) to get a look this year and look good. McMann is 26. I don't know why you're acting like it's a surprise that he may be further along the development train than some late drafted 20-24 year olds. Also, McMann is a good example of bigger players brought in through means other than the draft that don't get counted.

Would have made a difference if Korshkov and Rasanen and Gordeev had actually panned out.

Yeah, but at least we didn't draft tiny little Debrincat instead of Korshkov, right? That would have been horrible! He clearly has a "non NHL body", and will never be successful in the NHL.

Talent also needs to be translatable into actual NHL roles though. No doubt Timashov, Bracco, Dzierkals, Robertson, Der-Arguchitsev, we’re and are high ceiling players on draft day. But they also have non NHL floors.

I don't know why you're naming draft picks from 2015, but nearly every prospect's "floor" is not making the NHL. That doesn't mean anything. When you're talking longshots and projects, the chance that a smaller player will either grow or learn to excel as a smaller player in the NHL is bigger than the chance that a a big guy will suddenly develop critical skills post-draft and be able to maintain a high level of play when not physically dominant over their peers like they have been for most of their lives.