Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[Stephen]

They are the easiest and cheapest to fill via other means and worst to target when selecting BPA.

I don't see us filling those roles efficiently at the pro level either.

 

[LeafChief]

I don't see us filling those roles efficiently at the pro level either.

It's too bad all of the fridges we drafted in 2016 and 2017 that should be filling the line-up right now are bad at hockey. We have Matthews and Liljegren to show from 18 picks.

Anyways, this is the Matthew Knies thread. Lets stay on topic.

 

[kb]

It's too bad all of the fridges we drafted in 2016 and 2017 that should be filling the line-up right now are bad at hockey. We have Matthews and Liljegren to show from 18 picks.

Anyways, this is the Matthew Knies thread. Lets stay on topic.

Thank you mod for bringing posters back on topic!!

 

[Stephen]

We have one Matthew Knies who is guaranteed a promotion coming out of college into a playoff matchup with Tampa Bay, nothing serious that can help us on the Marlies, and yet drafting hasn't been an issue...

 

[kerk]

Is SDA anywhere close to NHL action 5 years after his draft and multiple years in the AHL?

you mean the guy who made his NHL debut this year, and is one of the best players on the marlies this season? i'd say he's trending positively.

also one season is hardly "multiple years in the ahl"

 

[Martin Skoula]

I'd look at the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draft classes as full of players who just don't project well for future NHL roles. Maybe they have some skill, but not enough for a top 6, top 4 role. And not built for the bottom 6 or bottom pair. That's why we're excited about one Matthew Knies. We don't have prospects like him.

Sandin
Durzi
SDA
Kral
Holmberg

in just the 2018 draft is more pro-caliber players than Tampa or Boston are likely to turn up in all their drafts since then lol.

2019 is likely to generate at least 1 pro, 2020 is likely to pull another 3 even with our 15th overall getting brain cancer.

I'm sure Tampa and Boston will have some random high end 6'4 grinder come out of their 2018-2020 drafts like a Cirelli, Colton, or Frederic but it's going to take 6 years like Frederic took and they're going to be rebuilding by that point. We're already getting significant value from 2018 and could have been reasonably getting 2LW value from Robertson or Amirov with better luck. Meanwhile our rivals have gotten a grand total of like 50 games worth of replacement level play from those 3 drafts. This is also ignoring the Anderson, McMann, Steeves, etc options we've found outside the draft.

Your posts are usually good but this really comes across like forcing facts to fit a narrative.

 

[LeafChief]

We have one Matthew Knies who is guaranteed a promotion coming out of college into a playoff matchup with Tampa Bay, nothing serious that can help us on the Marlies, and yet drafting hasn't been an issue...

This is the Matthew Knies thread. Not the Marlies or draft thread.

Anyways - I know that the latest he can come out of college is with 3 NHL games left in the season. Anyone know what the earliest his season might end may be?

 

[Stephen]

Sandin
Durzi
SDA
Kral
Holmberg

in just the 2018 draft is more pro-caliber players than Tampa or Boston are likely to turn up in all their drafts since then lol.

2019 is likely to generate at least 1 pro, 2020 is likely to pull another 3 even with our 15th overall getting brain cancer.

I'm sure Tampa and Boston will have some random high end 6'4 grinder come out of their 2018-2020 drafts like a Cirelli, Colton, or Frederic but it's going to take 6 years like Frederic took and they're going to be rebuilding by that point. We're already getting significant value from 2018 and could have reasonably getting 2LW value from Robertson or Amirov with better luck. Meanwhile our rivals have gotten a grand total of like 50 games worth of replacement level play from those 3 drafts. This is also ignoring the Anderson, McMann, Steeves, etc options we've found outside the draft.

Your posts are usually good but this really comes across like forcing facts to fit a narrative.

My point isn't the Leafs drafting is brutal but given the importance that Knies represents, maybe pro size is actually more important than it has been in BPA evaluation in the past than skating, IQ and skills represents if it doesn't come in a pro body.

The Leafs have all but guaranteed Knies an automatic NHL spot in the playoffs coming straight out of college in a few months which tells us he's expected to bring a lot of attributes that don't exist with many of their drafted players who are developing on the Marlies.

Are SDA, Abruzzese, Abramov likely to get that promotion for a Tampa series? Not really. (SDA and Kral are also not NHL success stories by the way any more than your random Lightning or Boston call up).

 

[Gallagbi]

My point isn't the Leafs drafting is brutal but given the importance that Knies represents, maybe pro size is actually more important than it has been in BPA evaluation in the past than skating, IQ and skills represents if it doesn't come in a pro body.

The Leafs have all but guaranteed Knies an automatic NHL spot in the playoffs coming straight out of college in a few months which tells us he's expected to bring a lot of attributes that don't exist with many of their drafted players who are developing on the Marlies.

Are SDA, Abruzzese, Abramov likely to get that promotion for a Tampa series? Not really. (SDA and Kral are also not NHL success stories by the way any more than your random Lightning or Boston call up).

Last 3 top picks were Minten, Knies and Amirov - right? None jump out as particularly small or under sized

 

[kb]

Last 3 top picks were Minten, Knies and Amirov - right? None jump out as particularly small or under sized

The narrative though.

Stop examining the evidence and just go along with the narrative. No matter how often the narrative is blatantly incorrect. There are narratives that need to be pushed to keep the feeble (and getting feebler) arguments about "tiny drafts" and the GM's supposed predilection to them....

 

[Morgs]

I'd look at the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draft classes as full of players who just don't project well for future NHL roles. Maybe they have some skill, but not enough for a top 6, top 4 role. And not built for the bottom 6 or bottom pair. That's why we're excited about one Matthew Knies. We don't have prospects like him.

I don't see guys like Koster, Loponen, Miller, Rindell, Fusco, Schingoethe, Hollowell, Abramov being efficient picks.

Maybe Robertson, Niemela, Hirvonen, Abruzzese, Miettinen can do something for you one day. Is SDA anywhere close to NHL action 5 years after his draft and multiple years in the AHL?

Seriously? Here are the guys from those drafts that are projecting to have future NHL roles or already have one:

2018 - Sandin, Durzi, SDA, Kral, Holmberg (5/9 and I'm not including Hollowell or Kizimov).
2019 - Robertson, Kokkonen, Abruzzese (3/6 with no 1st, and im not including Abramov)
2020 - Hirvonen, Niemela, Villenueve, Miller, and Tverberg (5/12 and I'm not counting Amirov, Akhtyamov, and Miettinen).

Either I don't think you realize how bad an average NHL team is at drafting or you haven't been paying attention.

 

[Stephen]

Last 3 top picks were Minten, Knies and Amirov - right? None jump out as particularly small or under sized

Like I said already, my point isn’t the Leafs are brutal drafters but need more diversity in their draft classes. Their 2018-2020 draft classes are littered with guys stuck at the minor league levels we can’t promote because they aren’t skilled enough for top 6 roles and aren’t big enough for depth roles. That’s why Knies is on the fast track.

Is it really that controversial to suggest that Fusco, Miller, Schingoethe, Rindell, Abramov, Miettinen, SDA, Hollowell and co. aren’t that useful for the big club?

 

[Gallagbi]

Like I said already, my point isn’t the Leafs are brutal drafters but need more diversity in their draft classes. Their 2018-2020 draft classes are littered with guys stuck at the minor league levels we can’t promote because they aren’t skilled enough for top 6 roles and aren’t big enough for depth roles. That’s why Knies is on the fast track.

Is it really that controversial to suggest that Fusco, Miller, Schingoethe, Rindell, Abramov, Miettinen, SDA, Hollowell and co. aren’t that useful for the big club?

Seems like youre jumping around. What do you mean by diversity in draft classes?

Not sure how the rest of it relates to diversity, seems more a commentary on the caliber on drafting which you say it isnt?

 

[Stephen]

Seems like youre jumping around. You say its about diversity (im reading size here and arguably style) which i responded to. If its not size, let me knoe, but their last 4-5 "high" picks are pretty different players.

Then you say its not about being a bad drafting team only to list players who arent ready now. 2018-2019 seems to have produced the expected (or slightly better) NHL ready players. We moved 1 in Durzi, but theres 4 NHLers there from those 2 picks - and thats as of this year.

2020 is a little dicier with the heavy euro focus through covid and our top pick bring diagnosed with cancer.

The diversity I'm speaking of is drafting 6'3" body types who can play non top six roles and non top four defensive roles, sometimes derided as "fridges." We've gone around and round in circles about those earlier draft classes and many of the names listed are simply being groomed in the minors with no chance of promotion.

Knies is literally Exhibit A in the rare time we drafted a big body and is being handed a roster spot whenever he wants it.

 

[hotpaws]

Seriously? Here are the guys from those drafts that are projecting to have future NHL roles or already have one:

2018 - Sandin, Durzi, SDA, Kral, Holmberg (5/9 and I'm not including Hollowell or Kizimov).
2019 - Robertson, Kokkonen, Abruzzese (3/6 with no 1st, and im not including Abramov)
2020 - Hirvonen, Niemela, Villenueve, Miller, and Tverberg (5/12 and I'm not counting Amirov, Akhtyamov, and Miettinen).

Either I don't think you realize how bad an average NHL team is at drafting or you haven't been paying attention.

most of the names on your list will be lucky to get a cup of coffee in the NHL nevermind have ''NHL roles;;

 

[Morgs]

most of the names on your list will be lucky to get a cup of coffee in the NHL nevermind have ''NHL roles;;

I count 8 of them that have already had at least a cup of coffee including 6 from 2018 alone. I'd also be shocked if another 3, probably 4 don't at least get the same (Kokkonen, Hirvonen, Niemela, and Tverberg). 12 NHL players in any capacity from 3 drafts would be ridiculous numbers.

 

[Gallagbi]

The diversity I'm speaking of is drafting 6'3" body types who can play non top six roles and non top four defensive roles, sometimes derided as "fridges." We've gone around and round in circles about those earlier draft classes and many of the names listed are simply being groomed in the minors with no chance of promotion.

Knies is literally Exhibit A in the rare time we drafted a big body and is being handed a roster spot whenever he wants it.

The Leafs and teams around the league want Knies in the top 6, not to grind deep in the lineup.

Feels like theres options across those drafted on D with Kral, Sandin, Hollowell and Durzi. You could drop back a year and add Lilj and Rasanen for more variety in that comparison. Unless youre specificallt talking about only drafting "fridges" which wouldnt really make any sense to label it diversity - but Kral would fit that as a big body D (im not a fan personally of his)

Then upfront with guys like Holmberg, Abruzzese, Robertson and SDA who are different in style, build and size. Thats 2 years removed from Hunter OA draft which was mostly giants and Knies 2 years after (Amirov and the covid draft inbetween) - so again, feels like variety.

Depth options dont look like a major issues as @Morgs mentioned. Especially when you add some recent tweener prospects weve picked up oike Anderson, McCann and Steeves

 

[hotpaws]

I count 8 of them that have already had at least a cup of coffee including 6 from 2018 alone. I'd also be shocked if another 3, probably 4 don't at least get the same (Kokkonen, Hirvonen, Niemela, and Tverberg). 12 NHL players in any capacity from 3 drafts would be ridiculous numbers.

getting called up for a couple games doesn't make you an NHL player regardless how hard your trying to spin it

but hey if you think giving Big Mac Holliwell and SDA etc a couple of games before they disappear back to their AHL careers makes them NHLers then you really need to rethink what an NHLer actually is

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

getting called up for a couple games doesn't make you an NHL player regardless how hard your trying to spin it

but hey if you think giving Big Mac Holliwell and SDA etc a couple of games before they disappear back to their AHL careers makes them NHLers then you really need to rethink what an NHLer actually is

You're the one who set up the criteria of getting a cup of coffee in the NHL?

 

[hotpaws]

You're the one who set up the criteria of getting a cup of coffee in the NHL?

maybe you should read my posts a little more carefully if that's what you got from them

 

[Menzinger]

Like I said already, my point isn’t the Leafs are brutal drafters but need more diversity in their draft classes. Their 2018-2020 draft classes are littered with guys stuck at the minor league levels we can’t promote because they aren’t skilled enough for top 6 roles and aren’t big enough for depth roles. That’s why Knies is on the fast track.

Is it really that controversial to suggest that Fusco, Miller, Schingoethe, Rindell, Abramov, Miettinen, SDA, Hollowell and co. aren’t that useful for the big club?

I think you're being too quick to write off guys who are long term projects given their draft range. Take Koster and Miller for example. Both guys have quitely improved since their draft day - which is the most important thing to look for when it comes to player development.

How many physical, crash and bang guys ever make the NHL from the 5/6/7th round of the draft? Odds are likely no better, if not worse than a skilled defensemen in that position (Leafs draft history 2000-2014 is certainly filled with busts of that type) - most of the bigger bodies the Leafs took in '16 and '17 flammed out as prospects before they even got to a position like Koster will be this year.

With Knies, yes the physicality is part of the equation for his (likely) early move to the big time, but he's also likely jumping pro to score goals in the top 9 than crash and bang more so than anything else

 

[Morgs]

maybe you should read my posts a little more carefully if that's what you got from them

Always appreciate the laughs

 

[Stephen]

I think you're being too quick to write off guys who are long term projects given their draft range. Take Koster and Miller for example. Both guys have quitely improved since their draft day - which is the most important thing to look for when it comes to player development.

How many physical, crash and bang guys ever make the NHL from the 5/6/7th round of the draft? Odds are likely no better, if not worse than a skilled defensemen in that position (Leafs draft history 2000-2014 is certainly filled with busts of that type) - most of the bigger bodies the Leafs took in '16 and '17 flammed out as prospects before they even got to a position like Koster will be this year.

With Knies, yes the physicality is part of the equation for his (likely) early move to the big time, but he's also likely jumping pro to score goals in the top 9 than crash and bang more so than anything else

Bolded is exactly the issue I have with the thought process and why I suggest we should have a more diverse approach to drafting, even for big bodies.

At the end of the day Yegor Korshkov and Eemeli Rasanen were bad picks but there's nothing wrong with the player type or body type. If we hit on that player type, we have a very serviceable player. At the end of the day, the percentage of these non first round guys making it is not super high anyway.

Michael Koster? I have no problem with a project pick and a 5'9" defenseman once in a while if you think you're finding something special later in the draft. But I do become concerned when we also have Fusco, Loponen, Hollowell developing on the Marlies, and smaller guys like Dermott and Sandin breaking in at the NHL level. I just wonder if it's really a player type we need to stock up on?

We've also drafted a fair share of smaller skilled forwards like Robertson, Der-Arguchitsev, Abramov and Abruzzese developing on the Marlies. But it's UFA signing Bobby McMann who is getting a longer look. It's Pontus Holmberg with a heavier body who can play a bottom 6 role who has a real NHL job. And this is why Knies is getting fast tracked.

 

[Stephen]

I count 8 of them that have already had at least a cup of coffee including 6 from 2018 alone. I'd also be shocked if another 3, probably 4 don't at least get the same (Kokkonen, Hirvonen, Niemela, and Tverberg). 12 NHL players in any capacity from 3 drafts would be ridiculous numbers.

I didn't actually say Leafs drafting was especially horrible, I just don't think our draft classes have been optimized to serve the needs of the big club with their recent BPA strategy and they could mix it up with bigger players.

If you want to throw pure body count and NHL games played out there with past eras, the Burke Nonis drafts from 2011, 2012 and 2013 also yielded 12 NHLers of varying quality. It was neither ridiculous or all that impressive.

Rielly
Brown
Gauthier
Johnsson
Verhaeghe
Leivo
Sparks
Percy
Broll
Bibeau
Toninato
Loov

 

[namttebih]

My point isn't the Leafs drafting is brutal but given the importance that Knies represents, maybe pro size is actually more important than it has been in BPA evaluation in the past than skating, IQ and skills represents if it doesn't come in a pro body.

The Leafs have all but guaranteed Knies an automatic NHL spot in the playoffs coming straight out of college in a few months which tells us he's expected to bring a lot of attributes that don't exist with many of their drafted players who are developing on the Marlies.

Are SDA, Abruzzese, Abramov likely to get that promotion for a Tampa series? Not really. (SDA and Kral are also not NHL success stories by the way any more than your random Lightning or Boston call up).

Not that I don't agree with you or believe you, but do you have a quote for this? I'm sure that they've touted him, but did they even say that they hoped that he could jump right in?

I thought that it was all media and fan hype up until this point.

It obviously make sense, just not sure if they've dangled that carrot yet.