Speculation: 2021-22 LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread Part VI

[kingsfan]

Trading for a top three defenseman who's 23 isn't hitting fast forward. It's adding to what we're already doing.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Way too much risk with Chychrun for the price being asked, Eichel like return. If he is a #1D why would AZ move him? Are they dumb, or do they think they should cash in on his last season before people realize he has 1 more goal than Mikey right now.

There are cheaper options that won't blow a hole in the rebuild & are much less risky.

 

[TruKingFan]

Whether its Chychrun or another LHD, it would be a crime to not try and improve this team right now just because it is in transition from the previous core to the new one. It's obvious the team has progressed and winning will help the "new" core get comfortable in their eventual roles.

I'm very much on the fence with JC in terms of what it'll cost. But there are others we can acquire that will help this team now. Blake should act.

 

[YP44]

Way too much risk with Chychrun for the price being asked, Eichel like return. If he is a #1D why would AZ move him? Are they dumb, or do they think they should cash in on his last season before people realize he has 1 more goal than Mikey right now.

There are cheaper options that won't blow a hole in the rebuild & are much less risky.

I don't know every forecaster has LA in the playoffs at this point so the first round pick would be in the back half of the draft, losing a Kupari or Turcotte is not that bad given how deep LA is, and Vilardi is all but gone IMO. I think that the relationship between him and team will go south if it has not already.

1st, Kupari/Turcotte, Vilardi for Chyrchun is very fair. Probably costs more and I am ok with that.

 

[YP44]

Whether its Chychrun or another LHD, it would be a crime to not try and improve this team right now just because it is in transition from the previous core to the new one. It's obvious the team has progressed and winning will help the "new" core get comfortable in their eventual roles.

I'm very much on the fence with JC in terms of what it'll cost. But there are others we can acquire that will help this team now. Blake should act.

Lets say he uses the assets on Klingberg instead of chychrun in order to get in this year. Klingberg can walk or will surely cost more to re-sign. Klingberg and Chychrun are likely the top two candidates IMO, and I would way rather have the one signed at a decent cap hit, even if it costs more.

 

[LAKings88]

Obviously slots can move around here but:

Iaffalo Kopi Kempe
Moore Danault Arvidsson
Fagemo Byfield Kaliyev
Lemieux JAD Turcotte

Kupari
Vilardi

(Without Lizotte & Brown)
(Andersson & Grundstrom)

Thomas and Madden Knocking on the door.

Chromiak and Helenius are wild cards.

Too many RHD

#1 pick could possibly fall out of the lottery

The Kings are gonna run out of room for everyone.

Take a chance and get Chychrun while you can.

 

[KingsHockey24]

I wonder what the asking price out of Montreal would be for Romanov.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Not sure I understand the “if he were really that good why is he available?” reasoning. If Mike Richards was really that good why was he available? If Jeff Carter was really that good why was he available? If Justin Williams was really that good why was he available? If Zigmund Palffy was really that good why was he available? If Joe Thornton was really that good why was he available? If Jack Eichel is really that good why was he available? Etc., etc. That sort of rationale completely strips all situation-specific context of why certain good players become available.

 

[Matt13]

I wonder what the asking price out of Montreal would be for Romanov.

I think in any trade scenario, the player has to be replaceable. In this case, I don't know if this player is replaceable by anything they have in the pipeline. With the pending loss of Chariot, his role will probably increase and he will be more key to The Habs future making him more valuable.

Romanov is a pretty special, fan favorite. I don't think the Kings could give back without a severe overpayment to make it happen.

 

[RaymondReddington]

Lets say he uses the assets on Klingberg instead of chychrun in order to get in this year. Klingberg can walk or will surely cost more to re-sign. Klingberg and Chychrun are likely the top two candidates IMO, and I would way rather have the one signed at a decent cap hit, even if it costs more.

Klingberg is RHD...don't need any more of those...and even if not, no thanks on him...someone is going to massively overpay and too much length...his defense makes Karlsson look like a Norris trophy winner...oh wait he won twice as a disaster in his own end and not playing PK1

 

[Mats26]

If no trade can be made for a top LD this year, I rather go the UFA route and sign McNabb. Then we should look into Tomas Hertl or Forsberg for a top line winger.

Without giving up any assets we would be contenders next year.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Good question, and a fair point.
Those graphs are not, but here are some comparative graphs which compile the last 4 seasons. Arizona played a crapload of different defensemen in that period so I put the floor at 2000 minutes of ice time to catch the starters. These all have quality of competition on the y-axis, higher is tougher:

CF%:



Demers, Hjalmarsson, and OEL have had better possession numbers with far tougher assignments.

DFF% (dangerous Fenwick):



Demers and Hjal created more dangerous chances than against than Chychrun against much better competition. OEL was lower than Chychrun, but this makes sense as his QOC is so high because he's out there against star players all the time.

GF%:



This one honestly surprised me because I expected Chychrun to excel here. He's actually 5th here, even behind Connauton. I figured it was because of sample size but Connauton has played 188 games, more than I thought. He doesn't generate as much as others against much weaker assignments.

This last one is a different stat, faceoffs/60. So the higher the number, the more the player is deployed in certain situations:



This one is really telling as its clear as day that Chychrun is deployed against weaker opponents and isn't put out in all situations.


What really jumps out to me about Chychrun is he has never been deployed like a first pairing defenseman, almost exclusively second line. Demers and Hjalmarsson consistently equalled or surpassed his performance with far tougher assignments, and OEL was their #1 by far when he was there.

He could develop into a star defender, but his performance comparable to his teammates doesn't inspire confidence in that. The more data you see on the guy the more likely it looks that his great season was an outlier. This season he's a tire fire. How you have such a shittier differential than your teammates when you aren't even getting tough assignments is hard to explain. This is why I wouldn't offer near the packages being tossed around here, just far too risky.

Nice, thank you. But no, it wasn't one 'great' season, it was basically every season but this one, everyone just keeps thinking we're trying to trade for the guy who scored an unsustainable amount of goals when that's not even what we're enticed by.

Right--he wasn't deployed as the shutdown dman, that was Hjalmarsson-Demers.

FWIW--most of the guys 'ahead' of him on the graph will have favorable stats because they're not on the team this year, either. So they get the benefit of 2-3 'good' (decent) years but not the pulldown of this year's tire fire. JC isn't doing himself any favors this year either, though.

What it does is beg the ongoing question--how much of it is changing staff/deployments (no Hjalmarsson especially, most underrated dude in hockey for years, but also no OEL/Demers etc), how much of it is current team environment (we're dumping EVERYTHING NOT NAILED DOWN for 2nd round picks), how much of it could be lingering injury, what do you get on the other side of all this?

Edit: yep jsut checked and if you run it for the previous three years, you get a guy who is basically tied at 1-3 for all of the above, better CF% than most anyone, better GF% than anyone but his regular partner and Demers, running away with HDCF%, and basically the same deployment as anyone but the shutdown pair. So the 'gamble' is on a bounceback to 'normal' PLUS any growth/what he looks like on a better team. THATS why people are enamored with the idea of his skating/two way play with Doughty et. al. But it's certainly always a lot of factors vs. price vs. form, so I get it.

But this idea that he's toast because he's had 'one good season' and now is toast when everything points to this season is the aberration reminds me of the people who were getting ready to throw DOughty out when he dipped for 1.5 seasons when everything else overwhelmingly pointed to an outlier. People aren't thrilled with Chychrun because he scored a bunch of goals once, they've seen his all around play for years, including a highly-touted player coming out of juniors. There are some absolutely legitimate concerns but this idea that he's never been a high-end d-men is not a real one.

 

[Reclamation Project]

Not sure I understand the “if he were really that good why is he available?” reasoning. If Mike Richards was really that good why was he available? If Jeff Carter was really that good why was he available? If Justin Williams was really that good why was he available? If Zigmund Palffy was really that good why was he available? If Joe Thornton was really that good why was he available? If Jack Eichel is really that good why was he available? Etc., etc. That sort of rationale completely strips all situation-specific context of why certain good players become available.

I'm not saying he isn't good, I'm saying why would AZ trade him? He's a 23 year old defenseman, defensemen hit their stride later in their career. You can argue he still has at least another 10 years of solid production. Why would AZ trade that?

Because they're a Mickey Mouse organization that will always be trading young talent for picks and prospects. It's one of the many reasons they have no fans showing up. How long has this rebuild been going on? Trading him would be peak Coyotes, 5 years down the road they'll be trading the prospects and drafted prospects they got for him.

It makes no sense from an AZ standpoint to trade him. Poorly managed teams trade these players. Philly was poorly managed and so is Buffalo and AZ.

 

[Sol]

Can’t they just call up Byfield and move Kupari to wing ? Our best player is out with covid. Seems logical.

please end the frk experiment. His only redeeming quality is his shot but he’s pretty mediocre everywhere else.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Its more about giving a dude a fish to eat instead of teaching him how to fish.

Some of you guys are getting way, way too excited about a hot streak. Everybody in the division apart from Seattle has had one, and some of you are desperate to hit the fast forward button.

The Kings are not a contender, they are part of a congestion of five relatively similar teams trading hot and cold runs. Lets give it a few more weeks of solid results before we think that a massive addition at a massive cost is good for business. There is good reason for excitement, but look at why its happening.

The youth is already paying dividends and the real high skill portion isn't even here yet. Relax and enjoy this part of the process, its only going upward from here.

He’s 23 with term. The Kings have are swamped with prospects. So much so that it will start hurting development.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

I'm not saying he isn't good, I'm saying why would AZ trade him? He's a 23 year old defenseman, defensemen hit their stride later in their career. You can argue he still has at least another 10 years of solid production. Why would AZ trade that?

Because they're a Mickey Mouse organization that will always be trading young talent for picks and prospects. It's one of the many reasons they have no fans showing up. How long has this rebuild been going on? Trading him would be peak Coyotes, 5 years down the road they'll be trading the prospects and drafted prospects they got for him.

It makes no sense from an AZ standpoint to trade him.

I think the bolded part of your reply gets at why they would trade him, even if it doesn’t make sense for the other reasons you laid out. Something similar seemed to behind the Flyers’ decision to get rid of Richards and Carter (Bobby Clarke’s impetuousness, maybe?).

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Let’s not forget that JC wants out. Do they want their leader want out? That’s not good for their locker

 

[Fat Elvis]

How good/bad is Sanheim from Philly? Bigger LHD is the right age range. Former mid 1st round pick, not that it matters much.

 

[Mats26]

You act as if he doesn't get scoring chances due to the line hes's on...and that he would bury every chance he got if he was. Neither is true.

How the F did you get that from what I said...lol

 

[bland]

He’s 23 with term. The Kings have are swamped with prospects. So much so that it will start hurting development.

Not sure I understand the “if he were really that good why is he available?” reasoning. If Mike Richards was really that good why was he available? If Jeff Carter was really that good why was he available? If Justin Williams was really that good why was he available? If Zigmund Palffy was really that good why was he available? If Joe Thornton was really that good why was he available? If Jack Eichel is really that good why was he available? Etc., etc. That sort of rationale completely strips all situation-specific context of why certain good players become available.

That's part of my thinking as well. Every year there are top shelf players available. Every stinking year somebody previously unthinkable comes up as an option.

Folks are really getting carried away with this recent run of excellent form. I see it as a taste of what's coming and will only be made better by the higher-level cost-controlled talent coming in over the next year.

There is zero reason for this team to trade Turcotte. There is no reason to deal Clarke or Faber. Byfield as well. That's your next core, that's where you make your hay, and they will all be here within 16 months.

If you want to add a 2nd tier LHD that doesn't cost any of the above, sure, let's do it. But there is no earthly reason to believe that Arizona deals Chychrun for anything less than one or two of those players plus additional assets, all of whom are on target to have the same kind of value as a Chychrun in short order. The Kings have a ton of offense from the blueline coming very soon. Its a temporary weakness at a heavy, heavy cost to fix now when the end results aren't really sustainable.

You are borrowing from the very near future at a ridiculous interest rate. Its too many high quality assets for a short term improvement of something that isn't really going to be a weakness when your best shot is still a couple of years down the road.

 

[Statto]

Trading for a top three defenseman who's 23 isn't hitting fast forward. It's adding to what we're already doing.

For me the stage of the rebuild means I’m happy to pay value for him but not to overpay. If he were seen as the missing piece you pay whatever it takes but we aren’t there yet. I don’t know enough in terms of watching him to have a particularly strong view on what value truly is but I do know I wouldn’t I wouldn’t move Clarke or Byfield.

 

[kingsfan]

Anyone asking why would Arizona trade Chychrun, the answer is because it's Arizona. If he was on any other team I doubt his name would be out there at all. This isn't a case of a player hitting the market because of poor play (even if he is having a bad year right now) it's a matter of Arizona being Arizona.

 

[kingsfan]

For me the stage of the rebuild means I’m happy to pay value for him but not to overpay. If he were seen as the missing piece you pay whatever it takes but we aren’t there yet. I don’t know enough in terms of watching him to have a particularly strong view on what value truly is but I do know I wouldn’t I wouldn’t move Clarke or Byfield.

They'd be non-starters for me too, in any trade that didn't net a McDavid/Matthews/etc type player.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

That's part of my thinking as well. Every year there are top shelf players available. Every stinking year somebody previously unthinkable comes up as an option.

Folks are really getting carried away with this recent run of excellent form. I see it as a taste of what's coming and will only be made better by the higher-level cost-controlled talent coming in over the next year.

There is zero reason for this team to trade Turcotte. There is no reason to deal Clarke or Faber. Byfield as well. That's your next core, that's where you make your hay, and they will all be here within 16 months.

If you want to add a 2nd tier LHD that doesn't cost any of the above, sure, let's do it. But there is no earthly reason to believe that Arizona deals Chychrun for anything less than one or two of those players plus additional assets, all of whom are on target to have the same kind of value as a Chychrun in short order. The Kings have a ton of offense from the blueline coming very soon. Its a temporary weakness at a heavy, heavy cost to fix now when the end results aren't really sustainable.

You are borrowing from the very near future at a ridiculous interest rate. Its too many high quality assets for a short term improvement of something that isn't really going to be a weakness when your best shot is still a couple of years down the road.

So.....if the deal was Faber, Vilardi, 2022 1st, and Moveare, for Chycrun, you are saying you wouldn't do that deal?

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

How the F did you get that from what I said...lol

Umm...because this was your exact quote: " Hate to see him battling every night without getting rewarded to fire some pucks in prime scoring areas. "

I've seen Kaliyev have PLENTY of opportunities in 'prime scoring areas' and not bury it. Do I think Kaliyev won't develop into a player that does bury those chances? Not at all, I think he's going to be great eventually.. But stop kidding yourself, playing with Kopitar is not suddenly going to transform him into Teemu Selanne.