Speculation: 2021-22 LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread Part VI

[YP44]

I do think the Kings will/would traditionally be down here a little bit anyway due to lack of creativity/finish but I also expect this to correct a little bit between health, a softer schedule, and some better luck. Either way, it's a good sign.

lots of lack of finishing last night. Good puck movement and LA, I thought, got a fair number of high danger attempts. Just didn't bury them.

 

[Schrute farms]

I do think the Kings will/would traditionally be down here a little bit anyway due to lack of creativity/finish but I also expect this to correct a little bit between health, a softer schedule, and some better luck. Either way, it's a good sign.

Excuse my ignorance on this data analysis, but is it simply using shots on goal? Because a shot into the goalie's chest (aka, an LA Kings SOG) is not the same as a proper goal scorers SOG. So just curious what this data point is using and if it factors in a quality SOG compared to an "LA Kings" SOG.

 

[funky]

That is not happening to me. What browser are you using?

Using safari on an iPhone.

 

[lexlavender]

Excuse my ignorance on this data analysis, but is it simply using shots on goal? Because a shot into the goalie's chest (aka, an LA Kings SOG) is not the same as a proper goal scorers SOG. So just curious what this data point is using and if it factors in a quality SOG compared to an "LA Kings" SOG.

Expected Goals for is a stat which I believe combines shot chance for volume (CF%) + Shot Quality (Danger and High Danger chances). So it weighs shots from the perimeter or outside the slot as less valuable than shots in the slot or up close, as an example.

It's nice to complain about not scoring, but this team is consistently on the right side of the puck at even strength. People seem to have brain worms in forgetting the late Sutter days where we ACTUALLY saw just a volume of low quality chances, not just have fees fees that we are doing the same thing. I do think there is a lack of skill on the team right now, as well as youth growing pains, but that's part of DEVELOPMENT.

 

[crassbonanza]

So when Blake says it happens but it's rare, like I said, he is balls on accurate

I would argue that it is more rare for a team to have three straight top 8 picks who have played a combined ten games.

If you exclude the Kings picks the 2021 draft has had 29% of the top 8 picks play seven or more games, the 2020 draft has had 71% of the top 8 play seven or more games and the 2019 draft is at 100%. Meanwhile 0% of the Kings draft picks from those drafts have played in seven or more games.

So far the top 8 from the past 3 drafts have played a total of 855 games, the Kings with 12.5% of those picks represent 0.007% of the games played

 

[DoktorJeep]

I would argue that it is more rare for a team to have three straight top 8 picks who have played a combined ten games.

If you exclude the Kings picks the 2021 draft has had 29% of the top 8 picks play seven or more games, the 2020 draft has had 71% of the top 8 play seven or more games and the 2019 draft is at 100%. Meanwhile 0% of the Kings draft picks from those drafts have played in seven or more games.

So far the top 8 from the past 3 drafts have played a total of 855 games, the Kings with 12.5% of those picks represent 0.007% of the games played

Thank you for the balls on precision digits.

 

[crassbonanza]

People seem to have brain worms in forgetting the late Sutter days where we ACTUALLY saw just a volume of low quality chances, not just have fees fees that we are doing the same thing. I do think there is a lack of skill on the team right now, as well as youth growing pains, but that's part of DEVELOPMENT.

Which year was that? Would you be talking about the year he was fired where the Kings had an xGF% of 54.31, which was 3rd in the league? Oh, maybe you are talking about 2015-16 where the Kings had an xGF% of 54.45, which again was 3rd in the league. Nah, I suppose you actually meant 2014-15 where the Kings had an xGF% of 54.04 and were 4th in the league. Did you actually mean the combined last 3 years of his Kings tenure where the Kings had an xGF% of 54.27 which was first in the league, nearly a whole percentage point better than the Penguins, the team who won 2 cups during that stretch?

For reference, this years Kings team that you claim is always on the right side of the puck at even strength in comparison to those late Sutter days has an xGF% of 51.83.

 

[bland]

That was just top-10 picks. As you saw, about 30-ish.

Then there are picks 11+ who get opportunities by the age of 20.

I'll concede more time to develop isn't unusual, but it's not like the Kings drafted zero forwards while they were competitive. There are also players who were "rushed" and they didn't develop into NHLers as a result.

The point is you can't put all young forwards in a cookie cutter and try to develop them all the exact same. Not every forward has to "round out" his game. Just like not all defensemen have to be offensive threats.

The NHL, far more than any other team sport, is an old boys network that tends to play follow the leader rather than go with original thinking.

Its seems pretty clear that Blake is trying to format the developmental plan to ape what Tampa has done.

I'll start to give him the benefit of the doubt once just one skill player lives up to his potential.

 

[cyclones22]

The NHL, far more than any other team sport, is an old boys network that tends to play follow the leader rather than go with original thinking.

Its seems pretty clear that Blake is trying to format the developmental plan to ape what Tampa has done.

I'll start to give him the benefit of the doubt once just one skill player lives up to his potential.

This current crop of prospects needs to produce 2 first liners and 1 first pairing defenseman for me to even consider this development staff doing their jobs effectively.

 

[Herby]

Tampa Bay is a tough model for Blake to build after, especially since he kept almost all the same scouts who have had a very difficult time identifying high end talent and retained, promoted or hired development coaches with no experience in developing those types of players. TB drafted Hall of Fame players in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012. We can't even develop a Brayden Point type scorer.

If Blake is trying to emulate Tampa Bay and the veteran signings and trades this summer meant the tanking is over, who is going to be this teams Kucherov, Hedman and Stamkos?

I think Blake is trying to emulate the late 90's/early 00's teams he was a part of.

This current crop of prospects needs to produce 2 first liners and 1 first pairing defenseman for me to even consider this development staff doing their jobs effectively.

And that should be, real life NHL first liners. Not someone who is going to replace Brown and Iafallo who have been 1st liners in LA because the Kings haven't been able to develop a 1st line player in a decade and a half.

 

[Schmooley]

This current crop of prospects needs to produce 2 first liners and 1 first pairing defenseman for me to even consider this development staff doing their jobs effectively.

I think they have that if they can transition from the old core and develop properly.
Kempe-Byfield-x
Kaliyev-Turcotte-x
Iafallo-Danault-x
Lemieux-Lizotte/Helenius-x
For wingers theres some hope in the pipeline further away like Chromiak, Pinelli, Simontaival, maybe Thomas moves to wing.
Its not a bad start if things work out. On defense they really need Clarke to live up to his potential or else Doughty will have to be the guy for the next 5 years and he isnt getting any younger…

 

[lumbergh]

I do think the Kings will/would traditionally be down here a little bit anyway due to lack of creativity/finish but I also expect this to correct a little bit between health, a softer schedule, and some better luck. Either way, it's a good sign.

Not once in the past 6.4 seasons has the Kings been above league average in 5 vs. 5 goals for per 60 minutes (horizontal black line on the graph), so you might be disappointed.

 

[YP44]

The NHL, far more than any other team sport, is an old boys network that tends to play follow the leader rather than go with original thinking.

Its seems pretty clear that Blake is trying to format the developmental plan to ape what Tampa has done.

I'll start to give him the benefit of the doubt once just one skill player lives up to his potential.

Tampa had some nice scores outside of the first round in Point and Kucherov (friggin Gibson) though as well. Credit to the lightening for trading up to get Point too. Alot of GMs missed on Point, but Minnesota must feel shame on that one.

 

[YP44]

I think they have that if they can transition from the old core and develop properly.
Kempe-Byfield-x
Kaliyev-Turcotte-x
Iafallo-Danault-x
Lemieux-Lizotte/Helenius-x
For wingers theres some hope in the pipeline further away like Chromiak, Pinelli, Simontaival, maybe Thomas moves to wing.
Its not a bad start if things work out. On defense they really need Clarke to live up to his potential or else Doughty will have to be the guy for the next 5 years and he isnt getting any younger…

chromiak was looking good before the juniors were shut down

 

[Schrute farms]

I would argue that it is more rare for a team to have three straight top 8 picks who have played a combined ten games.

If you exclude the Kings picks the 2021 draft has had 29% of the top 8 picks play seven or more games, the 2020 draft has had 71% of the top 8 play seven or more games and the 2019 draft is at 100%. Meanwhile 0% of the Kings draft picks from those drafts have played in seven or more games.

So far the top 8 from the past 3 drafts have played a total of 855 games, the Kings with 12.5% of those picks represent 0.007% of the games played

Well to play devils advocate a bit here, the Kings were snake bitten somewhat with Byfield's injury. If he doesn't get injured that last preseason game, he makes the team as the 3rd line center and this fact is no longer applicable to the Kings. You might even make a case for Clarke if he didn't get mono or something just before camp started. It's unlikely, but not impossible, that he impresses enough to make the team with a full training camp. I know those are excuses -- but just saying...bad luck is somewhat hovering over a lot of our picks/prospects.

 

[Schmooley]

chromiak was looking good before the juniors were shut down

Yea him Kaliyev and Helenius have high upside for where they were drafted. Would be nice if they pan out and itll be a case where every team regrets letting these guys fall so far in the draft.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Not once in the past 6.4 seasons has the Kings been above league average in 5 vs. 5 goals for per 60 minutes (horizontal black line on the graph), so you might be disappointed.

I literally said that.

I just expect it to trend up a little bit based on the factors I listed. I can't imagine it goes DOWN from there. Look at the huge gap.

The real problem is the goaltending will also likely equalize to compensate, counting on Quick to be best-in-league all year at his age isn't much of a strategy.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Or Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Phil Kessel, Nick Backstrom, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Kyle Turris, Jakub Voracek, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Nathan MacKinnon, Aleksander Barkov, Sean Monahan, Sam Reinhart, Nikolaj Ehlers, Sam Bennett, Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller, Nico Hischier, Elias Petterson...

I stopped at the 2017 draft. But the above list are all forwards taken in the top 10 since 2005 who were regulars in the NHL by their 20th birthday AND in the top half of average time on ice among forwards on their team. I also omitted some, such as Rantanen and Ovechkin, since his birthday was so early in the season.

That's a lot of unicorns. So sad they were all ruined by being thrown in the top-6 at a young age.

Nice list. As of last night the Kings have ZERO players of that caliber to put into the lineup.

 

[King'sPawn]

Nice list. As of last night the Kings have ZERO players of that caliber to put into the lineup.

So is the problem with scouting? Or did you need to see a list of top-six forwards in the NHL drafted out of the first round? Off the top of my head, there's Jesper Bratt, Jamie Benn, Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde, Ryan O'Reilly, Ondrej Palat, Patrice Bergeron.

 

[FSL KINGS]

It's ok everyone. What Kings have in no particular order. Mix & match as you like.

33/ 55/***
19/24/9
39/11/34

We need a high end top line wing. Pettersson, Laine, Forsberg, Gaudreau, etc. May take a bit to find. Also there are other players, Vilardi, Fagemo, Chrome that might swap in. We are covered up front.

Scoring goals is an issue. Lombardi didn't prioritize goal scoring when drafting. He traded for Carter & Gaborik. We can acquire Kessel at any point for example.

On Defense we have Doughty, Clarke Durzi as movers. Grans & Faber not far off & Walker due back at some point. That is plenty to cover puck movers.

Shutdown guys are also fine. Options on team aren't bad & shutdown guys are easier to trade for. Could use a mean D, but that won't break the bank.

Goal, need Cal to step up. This is the most concerning. Also fairly easily solved.

Everything is fine right now. Team is exactly where it should be.

 

[kings11]

Using safari on an iPhone.

Same… it was fine until they did their last site maintenance and then it refreshing a lot

 

[FSL KINGS]

So is the problem with scouting? Or did you need to see a list of top-six forwards in the NHL drafted out of the first round? Off the top of my head, there's Jesper Bratt, Jamie Benn, Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde, Ryan O'Reilly, Ondrej Palat, Patrice Bergeron.

I think you have unrealistic expectations. There isn't a McDavid available at 2 or 5 that often. Even less probable in later rounds. Not too worried about it as McDavids & Mathews don't seem all that important to winning in the post season.

 

[BigBrown]

As frustrated I am with the team and some player/management/coaching decisions at times, taking a step back and having a look at the big picture shows some promise.
They're at a 89 point pace, which slightly exceeds my expectation. I feel bad about this team way more than I should at that pace. They are 6th in shot differential which is very good. Hopefully they get their special teams under control at some point.

It will be interesting to see if they fall off once teams start playing with late season intensity. If they don't and keep going at roughly the same pace I'd be satisfied with the improvements showed this season despite all the flaws.

 

[kings11]

Nice read about our top prospects and their projections
https://thehockeywriters.com/kings-top-10-prospects-january-2022/

 

[King'sPawn]

I think you have unrealistic expectations. There isn't a McDavid available at 2 or 5 that often. Even less probable in later rounds. Not too worried about it as McDavids & Mathews don't seem all that important to winning in the post season.

Thank you for the education. I'm new to HF.