Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Disregard "June 15, 2020" as that's just indicating the first buyout window, which we haven't reached yet due to COVID-19 reasons. The MOU covered this:
2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part IV
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I'm not totally sold on Lundell at 10/11.
I think he could best the forward in the draft in terms of driving puck possession. It's been mentioned that his corsi was ridiculously good for a pre-draft player and when I watch him it's easy to see why. He's smart positionally, has a high motor, competes really hard, and is strong on the puck. He wins a lot of pucks in the defensive zone and despite criticism about his skating, it actually seems to me like he beats the other team down the ice pretty frequently.
But I share the concerns about his offensive upside. Other guys have watched him more than I have, but I think I've seen most of his points this year and I don't see a lot of high end plays like beating a defender one on one, making a pass through a seam, or manipulating the defense to create screened shots, etc. It seems like he scored most of his goals on direct, unobstructed shots and Valiquette's put out some stats about those being really difficult to score against NHL goalies on. Most of his assists seem like perimeter passes through undefended lanes leading to a play by someone else. There's a challenge in evaluating his offensive skillset because he's going against a higher level of competition than the junior league guys with flashier highlight reels, but players like Kravtsov, Raymond, or Holtz are able to make high end plays in pro leagues, so Lundell is at least a tier below them. Beyond that, just watching his shift-by-shift, it seems to me like he misses on some open passes and gets the puck knocked of his stick when he's carrying it, which seems to reinforce the idea that there are some limitations to his offensive skillset.
I could be wrong, but I at least have enough doubt about Lundell's offensive skillset that I'd prefer a guy like Jarvis, who I think is a better skater who more consistently flashes high end skill, or a guy like Mercer, who I think makes more high end plays too. Both of those guys are pretty well-rounded players with high compete levels too.
He wouldn't be my first choice, but I don't think it would be the end of the world if we took Guhle at 10/11. I'd be happy with him at the second pick, although I highly doubt he's there. He was the #1 defender on the best defensive team in the WHL and it seems to me like he has a pretty good defensive skillset. He's a good skater with size who's tough to beat in transition and he wins a lot of board battles in the defensive zone. It doesn't hurt that he has a physical edge. His shortcoming is supposed to be his offensive play, but I don't think he's a disaster there. As mentioned above, he can skate well, he's got a good shot from the point and as the season went on, it seemed like offensive skillset increasingly came to life:
His point production was similar to guys like Morrissey, Theodore, Byfuglien, and Barrie. I think it's a long shot that he runs a power play in the NHL, but he's far from a disaster offensively and given what he bring to the table defensively, it seems to me like he's a perfectly fine prospect in that range.
I think my top choice with our 2nd pick (assuming someone unexpected isn't there) might be Reichel. He scored over half a point per game as a 17 year old in a pro league and seems to play a pretty well-rounded game, winning a lot of puck battles and getting to the front of the net. He's got a good shot, skates well, and makes some pretty impressive passes too. Sometimes I think prospects who are above-average at a lot of things, but not exceptional at any one thing, get incorrectly perceived as lacking skill, and that can be especially pronounced for a young player in a pro league. But it seems to me like Reichel actually has some pretty high end skill. Here are a couple examples:
I realize Lundell advocates will probably make the point that you could say a lot of the things I'm saying about Reichel about Lundell too, but I'm talking about Reichel with the 2nd pick, not the first, and I'd be pretty happy with Lundell there too. Reichel is also almost a year younger and earlier in his development and it seems to me like he's more consistently flashed high end skill (although I realize that's subjective). If I had to make a choice, I think I'd probably have Reichel just barely ahead of Lundell.
I think he could best the forward in the draft in terms of driving puck possession. It's been mentioned that his corsi was ridiculously good for a pre-draft player and when I watch him it's easy to see why. He's smart positionally, has a high motor, competes really hard, and is strong on the puck. He wins a lot of pucks in the defensive zone and despite criticism about his skating, it actually seems to me like he beats the other team down the ice pretty frequently.
But I share the concerns about his offensive upside. Other guys have watched him more than I have, but I think I've seen most of his points this year and I don't see a lot of high end plays like beating a defender one on one, making a pass through a seam, or manipulating the defense to create screened shots, etc. It seems like he scored most of his goals on direct, unobstructed shots and Valiquette's put out some stats about those being really difficult to score against NHL goalies on. Most of his assists seem like perimeter passes through undefended lanes leading to a play by someone else. There's a challenge in evaluating his offensive skillset because he's going against a higher level of competition than the junior league guys with flashier highlight reels, but players like Kravtsov, Raymond, or Holtz are able to make high end plays in pro leagues, so Lundell is at least a tier below them. Beyond that, just watching his shift-by-shift, it seems to me like he misses on some open passes and gets the puck knocked of his stick when he's carrying it, which seems to reinforce the idea that there are some limitations to his offensive skillset.
I could be wrong, but I at least have enough doubt about Lundell's offensive skillset that I'd prefer a guy like Jarvis, who I think is a better skater who more consistently flashes high end skill, or a guy like Mercer, who I think makes more high end plays too. Both of those guys are pretty well-rounded players with high compete levels too.
He wouldn't be my first choice, but I don't think it would be the end of the world if we took Guhle at 10/11. I'd be happy with him at the second pick, although I highly doubt he's there. He was the #1 defender on the best defensive team in the WHL and it seems to me like he has a pretty good defensive skillset. He's a good skater with size who's tough to beat in transition and he wins a lot of board battles in the defensive zone. It doesn't hurt that he has a physical edge. His shortcoming is supposed to be his offensive play, but I don't think he's a disaster there. As mentioned above, he can skate well, he's got a good shot from the point and as the season went on, it seemed like offensive skillset increasingly came to life:
His point production was similar to guys like Morrissey, Theodore, Byfuglien, and Barrie. I think it's a long shot that he runs a power play in the NHL, but he's far from a disaster offensively and given what he bring to the table defensively, it seems to me like he's a perfectly fine prospect in that range.
I think my top choice with our 2nd pick (assuming someone unexpected isn't there) might be Reichel. He scored over half a point per game as a 17 year old in a pro league and seems to play a pretty well-rounded game, winning a lot of puck battles and getting to the front of the net. He's got a good shot, skates well, and makes some pretty impressive passes too. Sometimes I think prospects who are above-average at a lot of things, but not exceptional at any one thing, get incorrectly perceived as lacking skill, and that can be especially pronounced for a young player in a pro league. But it seems to me like Reichel actually has some pretty high end skill. Here are a couple examples:
I realize Lundell advocates will probably make the point that you could say a lot of the things I'm saying about Reichel about Lundell too, but I'm talking about Reichel with the 2nd pick, not the first, and I'd be pretty happy with Lundell there too. Reichel is also almost a year younger and earlier in his development and it seems to me like he's more consistently flashed high end skill (although I realize that's subjective). If I had to make a choice, I think I'd probably have Reichel just barely ahead of Lundell.
aufheben
#Norris4Fox
He also had a better track record.
If Georgiev brings back more than a 2nd I’m not gonna complain but I think the 2nd is fair.
Matz03
Registered User
Kind of a relevant publication no? NHL central scouting, not Joe Shmoes prospect list. He’s also a C and not a winger. To me it depends on what kind of team is Groton building, and i get the sense he’s right up their alley with his style of play. Mature two way center, strong shot that can beat goalies clean from distance. But I’d rather draft Lafreniere if we can.
Where do you draft/prospect gurus think these guys would have gone in this upcoming draft (Based on their Pre-Draft rankings in comparison).
1). Lias
2). Chytil
3). Kravtsov
4). Miller
5). Lundkvist
5). Robertson
6). Jones
Next question - having known what you know with the development of these kids thus far, where would you rank them against the current upcoming crop...?
Example:
•Expected Miller as a top-25 pick in his draft.
•In hindsight, he should have been a top-20 pick.
•If he was draft eligible this draft, I’d rank him #17-22 overall.
1). Lias
2). Chytil
3). Kravtsov
4). Miller
5). Lundkvist
5). Robertson
6). Jones
Next question - having known what you know with the development of these kids thus far, where would you rank them against the current upcoming crop...?
Example:
•Expected Miller as a top-25 pick in his draft.
•In hindsight, he should have been a top-20 pick.
•If he was draft eligible this draft, I’d rank him #17-22 overall.
egelband
Registered User
- Sep 6, 2008
- 16,199
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You're right. I do think that JG probably has some lower-ball offers, though, and hasn’t pulled the trigger. We heard a good deal of talk about Georgiev at the deadline, didn’t we.
So he’s probably holding out and hoping for more. Fingers crossed.
- Jan 7, 2013
- 19,579
- 12,255
Good news is based off the results of the play in, we’re guaranteed a better than expected outcome. Most thought 13 or 14, yet we’re getting at worst 11.
Thankfully the lottery is now and not after the Cup is awarded. Kinda nervous tbh.
Thankfully the lottery is now and not after the Cup is awarded. Kinda nervous tbh.
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
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Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2011
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history has shown me that if we pick 10 or 11, you should have a list of 10 or 11 players you'd be happy with and rank them. anytime you set your hopes on a specific guy that you think will 'fall' to us its almost guaranteed that guy will be taken before our pick cause you singled him out cause he's better than the guys you were hoping would go first lol
Amazing Kreiderman
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In this year's draft, there are a bunch of players I like at 10-11. It's not an unreasonable assumption to think a 3rd defenseman or a goalie goes in the 1st round.
- Lafreniere: No argument here
- Byfield (LAK): Again, hard to argue
- Stützle (OTT): 3rd best skater according to many
- Perfetti (DET): Reports about Detroit liking him already surfaced
- Askarov/Drysdale (OTT): Ottawa probably won't go with 2 forwards if they can get a franchise D-man or goalie. Can't really go wrong here for them, as they need both
- Holtz (ANA): Holtz screams "Ducks pick" for me. The type of player they like. With Zegras in the system, going with a winger is a good option
- Drysdale/Askarov (NJD): With Ty Smith in the system, adding another D-man is the way to go, although Askarov can set them up in net for over a decade. Do they trust Blackwood enough?
- Quinn/Sanderson/Schneider (BUF): What is Buffalo looking for? Center? They have Cozens already. Might play into their decision. Wing? Quinn makes sense. Defense could get some help with Sanderson or Schneider
- Askarov/Rossi/Raymond/Lundell (MIN): The Wild are a tough one to pinpoint. Goalie, wing, center. They can use it all. Granlund was a great pick for them in 2010 so Lundell could be enticing to them.
- Schneider/Sanderson/Guhle/Grans (WPG): Defense seems logical for the Jets.
The further you get, the harder it is to project, but going through what these teams need, it's really not out of the question that there are 3 defensemen and a goalie picked before we are on the clock at 11. There is a good chance one of the top-10 projected/ranked forwards falls to 11. Whether that's Rossi, Lundell, Raymond, Holtz or Quinn, Gorton should grab him. Go with whoever drops. It's a perfect spot to be in. And we may even climb a spot if MIN or WPG win the lottery
(Of course this is all moot if we win the lottery on Monday)
@Thirty One Mind listing RLR's top 12? Don't need any blurbs or anything, but I'm interested in seeing where they have it.
NHL teams actually use Hockeyprospect's black book and Redline Report to cross reference with their own lists. They are not Joe Shmoes and both held in higher regard than NHL CS. RLR has him rated as the #3 Euro too (and 9OA) as per @Thirty One , so there is that.
His shot is good, but he rarely shoots from high danger areas. His game is simple and efficient, bordering on conservative and there is nothing about his offensive skill set that really stands out.
That isn't a bad package and I like the player, but not in lieu of more dynamic, potentially game changing talent. If said talent isn't still around then sure, take him. When we start talking about him over guys like Sanderson, Quinn or Rossi that we're reaching the point of lunacy.
NHL teams actually use Hockeyprospect's black book and Redline Report to cross reference with their own lists. They are not Joe Shmoes and both held in higher regard than NHL CS. RLR has him rated as the #3 Euro too (and 9OA) as per @Thirty One , so there is that.
His shot is good, but he rarely shoots from high danger areas. His game is simple and efficient, bordering on conservative and there is nothing about his offensive skill set that really stands out.
That isn't a bad package and I like the player, but not in lieu of more dynamic, potentially game changing talent. If said talent isn't still around then sure, take him. When we start talking about him over guys like Sanderson, Quinn or Rossi that we're reaching the point of lunacy.
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
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I think what is not really highlighted enough is how good Lundell is in the transition. The way he moves the puck up the ice is just not something you see from draft-eligible players in Liiga or SHL that much.
It's a shame Liiga didn't track Corsi in 2012 (they started in 2014) to see how he compares to Barkov (who, admittedly is a late birthday but still) in his draft year, but I went through all 7 seasons to rank the draft-eligibles and here's the top 10. Ranking is where they rank league-wide in their respective season (min 10GP):
His best strength is getting/keeping the puck moving in the right direction, I'll agree with that. However, despite those gaudy possession numbers, he didn't really generate a large number of high danger chances, both individually and for his teammates.
It's a translatable skill, but to what end? Is it something that should be valued beyond game breaking talent? I don't think so.
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
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How much does game-breaking talent translate to the NHL though? It's a never ending debate of who you think will adjust better to hockey in the NHL, and it's not exclusively the game-breaking talent nor the better overall player.
eco's bones
Registered User
I know we could use forwards more but if we're picking at 10 or 11 and Sanderson is available I think we got to go with him. I don't think Sanderson is far away at all from stepping in and he's not going to need the learning curve that K'Andre Miller has. By the time K'Andre is ready for the NHL Sanderson probably will be too. I know also that Sanderson is not European but he's among the very few non-Europeans I would even consider with that pick--the others being Lafreniere, Byfield and maybe Drysdale or Quinn.
If Sanderson isn't there Lundell would be a great choice. I don't think he's going to be an elite center but he could be a extremely solid two way guy for us and probably another guy who isn't all that far away from playing in the NHL.
If Sanderson isn't there Lundell would be a great choice. I don't think he's going to be an elite center but he could be a extremely solid two way guy for us and probably another guy who isn't all that far away from playing in the NHL.
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
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I agree but I don't think Sanderson makes it to 11. I expect to see at least 2 defensemen, maybe 3, going in the top-10 and Sanderson is 2nd best in the draft, maybe even better than Drysdale
Sanderson would be a 1 and done in the NCAA if they play a season next year. I think he would be our best LD right now, though I wouldn't throw him to the wolves just yet.
He's my top D in this draft and Ottawa is crazy lucky to be in a position to come away with him and Byfield.
Always coming with the knowledge in this thread.
Hopefully they just win the lottery and take the tough decision of who to pick at 10/11 out of the equation. I mean its really hard to screw up either pick, but with the way this team over values certain attributes I'm kind of scared that they go with the H word at 10/11.
eco's bones
Registered User
I don't think he'll drop to us either. I was just sorting through your #486 post and he was getting real close. You first mention him at 8 with Buffalo and next at 10 with Winnipeg.
eco's bones
Registered User
I think the Rangers LD has a very bright future coming but if we got Sanderson it would significantly upgrade even that. He would go to the head of the class and yeah he'd be our best LD within 2 years.
JD is on record saying he wants to get bigger and tougher. The best player in this draft that might be available to us that fits JD's wants is Schneider. I stick by the Rangers taking him. I believe they will use at least our second first rounder and some of our assets to trade for young forwards much like they did with Gauthier. Our young players will get better and will get paid. In 4 years I doubt the Rangers will want to keep Trouba when his NMC moves to a limited NTC. He is the only righty d man with size on the team. I think the Rangers are at the point where they don't want to wait 4 years for young forwards to mature and make the NHL. The second first round pick is an asset to be used to acquire a piece for the next 3-5 years that can play now. Schneider will be a replacement for Trouba down the line. He's too good to pass up and his type of game is built for the playoffs. I honestly think if Lundkvist came over they would have dealt TDA. However, if they sign him Gorton better have a clue and not give him any NMC or NTC's in his contract. That would be a disaster. If they lock him up to a good deal, his value might even increase.
You are a bit delusional about Trouba. He just turned 26. He’s going to be here for a long time.
Re: Sanderson...I checked in with a couple of people and what I was told is that he really turned a corner the second half of the season. Always a good prospect he expanded his offensive toolkit and is now viewed as a very good prospect. I don’t know exactly where that fits into a top ten ranking but the people I heard gushing about him usually don’t gush much.
Thats where the eye test comes in.
If a guy is physically manhandling kids in JR then yeah, there is an adjustment that will need to be made if it can even be made. But finding soft spots in ice, creating passing lanes, being able to evaluate all options instead of going with the safest option (or always forcing the dangerous option), pass completion, getting pucks back when you lose it or don't have it, making the right reads in your own end, Successful Zone exits and entries, these are all things you can evaluate and carry over level to level.
That goes beyond the tools that are obvious to spot, like it doesn't take much of an eye to spot a great skater or a good shot. Yes you need to take league into consideration, I wouldn't suggest that the CHL is on par with Liiga, but when you look at guys who have come out of any league and have been top players at the NHL level, they all excel at most if not all of the above, they have a few tools that are just overwhelmingly good, or both.
All things considered, I will always take the more talented player than the one who is well rounded but doesn't have the skill level as long as the talented guy is willing to work. You can teach a player how to do the little things if they're receptive to it.
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