Speculation: 2020-21 LA Kings News/Rumors/Roster Discussion Part II

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Showing up is just nowhere near as important as contributing. Amadio failed in his chances here, and he had several of them because there was just nobody else ready to get their chance at that time. That is how barren the cupboard was then. Once Vilardi was physically ready, and Lizotte earned his spot out of camp, he was out of contention.

That doesn't make a difference though, because there's still only 2 players from his draft round that you could argue "contributed" more and one of them played only 9 AHL games before making the jump. So did our development staff "fail" in regards to developing Amadio? Or was his career in line with expectations of a #90 overall pick?
 
Keep fighting the good fight, @redcard

I refuse to have this bad faith argument year after year. It's exceedingly clear what gaps in drafting there were in the last decade and why they were there. and citing 2017 to now as if they're 'complete' just shows how bad faith the argument is.

People are literally cherry picking the drafts during the Kings ultimate Stanley Cup contending window and wondering why so few impact players were drafted? Really? Is it just a coincidence that Chicago, Pittsburgh went/are going through the same thing, or is it just the Kings are so bad?

Give me a break, have fun with this one.

Edit: is it fair to question whether Emerson et. al. know what to do with the talent when drafted? I'd say yes--but only because we didn't have the draft picks to test, not because we're MiSeRaBlE FaIlUrEs. Now we do. Like with Blake, what happens next matters.
 
JVR cap hit is $7 million for 2 more years. Dunno if I’d term that decent. Unless there is retention by Philly (say 15% - 20%), I would pass.

I wouldn’t mind Ghost. I think change of scenery would do him well. But he’s another one where I’d look to have Philly retain some salary on any deal.
They want to clear cap and partially rebuild on they fly… I’m sure that 1st rounder could be in play to help clear $11.8 million
 
How does that compare to other teams around the league? Are we having success finding defenseman in rounds 3-7 at a higher rate than other teams? Are we better at scouting them? How many defensemen have we drafted compared to other teams around the league? Do our defensemen spend more time in the minors than other teams? Do we take more European or College players than other teams? What is the success rate of a mid-late round defenseman contributing in the NHL league wide?

Look at the actual drafts, look at how few players round 3-7 make the NHL. Then look at how many of them have any sort of meaningful career. Then look at the forwards we've drafted and signed and you'll see that they've had the careers we could have reasonably expected of them.

2014 NHL draft. We take Amadio with the last pick of the 3rd round. Nobody here is going to call him a development success right? Yet the only players with more NHL games played than him from that 3rd round are Point, who only played 9 AHL games so is clearly a scouting success rather than a development success, and Foegele who did play a full AHL season. I'd say our development staff did a pretty good job getting 173 NHL games out of Amadio in that context. We had 2 2nd round picks that year, took McKeown and Lintuniemi. 10 combined NHL games for those two defensemen.

Amadio stayed on this team way too long IMO. He'll be in europe soon enough. Small trivia. Guess who was picked after Amadio... Arvindsson soon after in the fourth round! This is silly to pick a player and try to fit your narrative. Think big picture.

You seem to answer all questions by wanting to compare to other teams, except if we talk about Tampa of course. Let's keep it within the Kings organization please.

Question:
We are better at drafting D men in later rounds that can play big heavy minutes then top end forwards and it's been this way for a decade. Why?

My answer is a lack of vision to first find the talented forwards and then develop them. Hence why we lacked scoring in what seems like forever but our D for the most part is decent at least for a rebuilding team at this point.

Yours: We did not pick enough forwards as 1st rounders. 0 picked 1-28 in for 7 years(left Pearson and Kempe out) and we did the best we could with the prospect, in retrospect of their draft position when comparing to other teams.

So going forward what is the solution.
Do the best we can? Pick more forwards in the 1st rounds, reducing their bust %?

Or maybe change the draft and development philosophy to target talented players throughout the draft?

Like I said there were some changes finally in the mentality since 2017, which is why I hope now the development staff won't botch it.
 
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Devils advocate is also Tampa can’t develop defense outside of Hedman to save them. Had to trade for Sergachev and Cernak.

They could’ve drafted Jones instead of Drouin. Hedman/Jones in the D corps sounds nice. Botched Koekkeok. Only decent D they’ve drafted is Cal Foote.

It happens, no teams are perfect. And if they are it’s usually for a short while then crash down.

And that's fair.

Here's the problem. People are interpreting the remarks of "the development staff hasn't reliably produced top-6 forwards" as "the Kings suck."

TB hasn't developed a defenseman outside of the first 2 rounds? Cool. Let's call it out. I already have remarked that Dallas can't do jack with goalies - they nearly ruined Campbell. Then the Kings rescucitated his career. That's a credit to the development staff.

Keep fighting the good fight, @redcard

I refuse to have this bad faith argument year after year. It's exceedingly clear what gaps in drafting there were in the last decade and why they were there. and citing 2017 to now as if they're 'complete' just shows how bad faith the argument is.

People are literally cherry picking the drafts during the Kings ultimate Stanley Cup contending window and wondering why so few impact players were drafted? Really? Is it just a coincidence that Chicago, Pittsburgh went/are going through the same thing, or is it just the Kings are so bad?

Give me a break, have fun with this one.

Edit: is it fair to question whether Emerson et. al. know what to do with the talent when drafted? I'd say yes--but only because we didn't have the draft picks to test, not because we're MiSeRaBlE FaIlUrEs. Now we do. Like with Blake, what happens next matters.

The Kings have drafted 3 forwards they have developed into top-6 forwards in the past decade. I am concerned that the current arrangement is in charge of developing Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, etc, considering there's not a great history.

People make plenty of jokes how there's an "offense tax" when on the Kings. It's not like Sutter or Murray are the coaches anymore. So where is the lack of offense coming from?
 
Brown, Kopitar, Williams
Penner, Richards, Carter

2 of 6 developed internally. Is developing top 6 talent really that important? Lol

Any news on Philly being able to resign Couturier yet? Might have been a vulture in my past life. Circling around, watching for top 6 options to poach. NYI tired of Eberle?
 
Speaking of the Coyotes, this popped up in my YT feed. That team stunk too but at least we got some entertainment. I know most will hate this but I love some solid retribution after a wrist chop from some nobody I've never heard of. We need a Lucic for Byfield's wing *cough cough* Tkachuk.

 
Just seems like a waste to spend that extra mil next year. As bad as it sounds Maatta is still our third best left shot Defenceman today behind Andersson and Bjornfot and I am being generous bumping Bjornfot ahead of him based on projectioned growth

Maata played his best hockey the last 3 weeks of the season, when it didn't matter. He just never got it, sucks because we needed experienced LHD.
 
Amadio stayed on this team way too long IMO. He'll be in europe soon enough. Small trivia. Guess who was picked after Amadio... Arvindsson soon after in the fourth round! This is silly to pick a player and try to fit your narrative. Think big picture.

Lol. I'm picking a player? I already illustrated how all of the forwards the Kings drafted in the 3rd round in that time span stack up against all of the other forwards drafted in the 3rd round. That's not picking a player. That's all the players. And that data suggests that Kings are no worse than the rest of the league at developing forwards.

You seem to answer all questions by wanting to compare to other teams, except if we talk about Tampa of course. Let's keep it within the Kings organization please.

Um, no thank you? How can you answer the question of "are the Kings bad at developing forwards?" without comparing them to the rest of the league? The whole league...not just the back to back Stanley cup champion best team in the league Tampa Bay Lightning.


Yours: We did not pick enough forwards as 1st rounders. 0 picked 1-28 in for 7 years(left Pearson and Kempe out) and we did the best we could with the prospect, in retrospect of their draft position when comparing to other teams.

No. I didn't leave out Pearson and Kempe. The point was to illustrate how many forwards every other team in the league drafted higher than we drafted Pearson and Kempe, our highest drafted forwards.

And the answer was 4.3. 4.3! That's 2/3rds of a top 6! THE AVERAGE NHL TEAM DRAFTED 2/3RDS OF A TOP 6 WORTH OF FORWARDS HIGHER THAN OUR HIGHEST DRAFTED FORWARD (KEMPE) FROM 2010-2016. Come on! Its outrageous to think that we could possibly make that up that deficit with mid-late round picks and blame it on development when we don't.

The Kings have drafted 3 forwards they have developed into top-6 forwards in the past decade. I am concerned that the current arrangement is in charge of developing Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, etc, considering there's not a great history.

Byfield: 2nd Overall
Turcotte: 5th Overall
Kaliyev: 33rd Overall

Who are the comparable forwards that the Kings failed to develop that gives any merit to this concern?
 
So good at defense and goalie though!

Gibson, McKeown and Clague say hello.

I'm sorry, but the majority of this is the player to begin with. Development is important but picking the right players is far more important.

If you rarely draft forwards in the 1st or 2nd round, you usually aren't going to have a bunch of awesome forwards.

Yay for Tampa that they did it. The guy that did it is the Tukonen and Jens Karlsson monster that was run out of here on a rail.
 
That’s a pathetic list of “top” talent.

You have to have the picks to get the proper players to develop the players. Aside from Kempe, our drafting sucked! DL went from being great at finding guys in the mid-lower rounds to drafting Andreoff clones round after round...all will, no skill! He passed up so many guys because of his crazy "character " checklist and the Kings went nowhere with the guys he thought were better.
 
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Byfield: 2nd Overall
Turcotte: 5th Overall
Kaliyev: 33rd Overall

Who are the comparable forwards that the Kings failed to develop that gives any merit to this concern?

Are you satisfied with the forwards the Kings have churned out over the past decade? Keep in mind since 2010, their offense is:
25th
29th
10th
26th
18th
14th
25th
16th
30th
30th
27th

That is where they have ranked in goals for. It's not like any kids they draft has had absurd competition.

If you are happy with the Kings' ability to bring out offensive skill, then we have nothing to talk about. If you are NOT happy, then where's the problem? Bad scouts or bad development?

Complaining about the number of high end picks is essentially blaming the scouts for being unable to identify talent, because there's always talent available in later rounds.
 
Here's a sad reality, name all the best centers the Kings drafted from 2006 to 2016.

You'll come to the realization that this team really placed no emphasis on skill. The lack of productive forwards to come from within during that time frame outside of two names is enough proof. Two top six forwards drafted in a decade, not a single top six center.

Then you look at the back-to-back Cup champs and observe their top six forwards.

Kucherov, 58th overall.
Point, 79th overall.
Killorn, 77th overall.
Palat, 208th overall.
Cirelli, 72nd overall.

Their top six scoring forwards in the playoffs all drafted outside of the first round and outside of the top 50, and their only forward in their top six drafted in the first round is Steven Stamkos.

Let's hear the laundry list of excuses of why the team couldn't draft well after the Cup wins, and even without the first round selections, how they blew so many second round picks.

That's something we all used to lament about Dave Taylor, but Lombardi had quite a few of faults at the draft table as well. Seems like his draft magic wore off, along with his decision making.
 
The Kings have drafted 3 forwards they have developed into top-6 forwards in the past decade. I am concerned that the current arrangement is in charge of developing Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, etc, considering there's not a great history.

People make plenty of jokes how there's an "offense tax" when on the Kings. It's not like Sutter or Murray are the coaches anymore. So where is the lack of offense coming from?


And as pointed out by Redcard, that's basically 3 out of 4, or 75%, of those normal picks.

There's not a 'great history,' but there's also not a BAD history. Is it fair to have concern? 100%. I've said as much before. Is it fair to act as if the development team sucks? Not at all. But that's the implication--it's not that folks are giving them an incomplete, they're giving them an F preemptively. It's the cynicism spilling over.

Some of the offense tax was almost certainly on team 'vision', ie. DL-style draftees, too. And trying to add guys to a competitive roster vs. drafting for the future.

Now these idiots are playing a 1-3-1 too, but I digress.

As @Mats26 points out, and I'm sure you're well aware and I"M sure most of the forum agrees, there was a VAST change in philosophy with the organizational changeover to just an insane volume of 'skill' forwards. Now we will see what the development staff can or can't do--because while most everyone would agree the Kings didn't have many chips in play before, most everyone would agree now that the Kings are loaded on the farm at forward. If they mostly fizzle out? Well, it will be pretty clear where the issue is (and unfortunately too late). But thus far it's hard to be too mad at them.

Here's a sad reality, name all the best centers the Kings drafted from 2006 to 2016.

You'll come to the realization that this team really placed no emphasis on skill. The lack of productive forwards to come from within during that time frame outside of two names is enough proof. Two top six forwards drafted in a decade, not a single top six center.

Then you look at the back-to-back Cup champs and observe their top six forwards.

Kucherov, 58th overall.
Point, 79th overall.
Killorn, 77th overall.
Palat, 208th overall.
Cirelli, 72nd overall.

Their top six scoring forwards in the playoffs all drafted outside of the first round and outside of the top 50, and their only forward in their top six drafted in the first round is Steven Stamkos.

Let's hear the laundry list of excuses of why the team couldn't draft well after the Cup wins, and even without the first round selections, how they blew so many second round picks.

That's something we all used to lament about Dave Taylor, but Lombardi had quite a few of faults at the draft table as well. Seems like his draft magic wore off, along with his decision making.


This is a grass is greener thing.

Killorn is a 44-point pacer, most recent season 48 point pace.

Palat is a career 55-point pacer.

Cirelli is certianly an up and comer, his most recent season is a 36 point pace.

You know who matches Alex Killorn step for step? Alex Iafallo. Or if it has to be a 'draftee,' Tanner Pearson.

Palat's numbers are a little bit wonky because he can't stay healthy, but we had Brown. Or "good" Tyler Toffoli.

Cirelli...was outscored by such luminaries as everyone's favorite punching bag Adrian Kempe, AA, Trevor Moore, Gabe Vilardi.

These numbers are all on a top-flight Stanley Cup winning offense vs. a bottom of the barrel Kings offense.

Kucherov and Point were absolute drills....but guess what? That's the edge Tampa has on EVERYONE, that's not a "Kings fault" as you're painting it. Why is everyone's illustration TBL? I dare anyone to pick another top team and take a look.

This all goes with this forum's long-standing inability to realize what 'depth' on other teams actually looks like and frankly why I hardly participate in this discussion anymore.
 
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Kucherov, 58th overall.
Point, 79th overall.
Killorn, 77th overall.
Palat, 208th overall.
Cirelli, 72nd overall.

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If you are NOT happy, then where's the problem? Bad scouts or bad development?

Neither. The problem was trading all the picks, its clear as day. 1st round pick for Penner. Schenn, Simmonds, and a 2nd for Richards. 1st round pick for Carter. 2nd round pick for Gaborik. 1st round pick for Lucic. 1st round pick for Sekera.

We don't make those trades, we don't win those cups.

But had we not made those trades, we'd have "developed" more forwards. What do you want? Cups or Forwards?

While we were trading all those picks other teams drafted 4.3 more forwards with higher picks than our highest drafted forward in Kempe. Its insane to me that people think our problem is that we weren't able to turn garbage round picks into stars because our "development" sucks and not simply the fact that every other team drafted a line and a half worth of forwards in the first round rather than trading all their picks like we did.

Complaining about the number of high end picks is essentially blaming the scouts for being unable to identify talent, because there's always talent available in later rounds.

Bull. Top 6 forwards drafted out of the later rounds are anomalies. Outliers. Sure, there's a few every year. But there's 31 teams in the league. The vast majority of players drafted in late rounds never amount to anything. The Matt Roys and the Ondrej Palats are rare enough that its indistinguishable from luck, indistinguishable from scouting, indistinguishable from development.

Did the 80s Kings have "good development" because they turned 9th round pick Luc Robitaille into a Hall of Famer? No. They got f***ing lucky.

Amadio, Andreoff, Shore, Weal have all had above average careers for 3rd round picks. That's all the development staff had to work with, what more could you possibly expect from them?
 
Tampa is the new Detroit.

The Red Wings struck gold with Zetterberg (7th round, 1999) and Datsyuk (6th round, 1998) and every other fan base wonders why their team can't do the same.

From 2006 to 2016, the Kings only drafted a forward in the top 28 twice (Schenn and Lewis). When you go 11 years only drafting one forward high (then trading him away) you're not going to have much homegrown goal scoring talent.
 
It's difficult to use goals as a measure for Kings players. I mean, team rankings in goals are largely based on systems and not the personnel. We all know what Sutter did when guys didn't play within his system.

I'm not satisfied with the forwards the Kings have produced in the last 10 years, but when you win cups and trade picks that's what happens.

I am pretty satisfied with the forwards the Kings took in the previous decade though, guys like Frolov, Brown, Kopitar, Simmonds, Schenn, Cammalleri, and Lewis to a lesser extent. But I would expect them to be a better group. In that decade, the Kings had 27 picks in the first 2 rounds. In the past decade, it's 21; but 7 of those have been in the past two years and have had minimal impact. Between 2010 and 2018, the Kings had 14 picks in the top two rounds, and a lot of those picks were lower because they were successful at the time. Unsurprising that they don't have a pack of forwards ready to go.

I wouldn't say there is really a problem with scouting OR development, but I disagree that there is always talent available in later rounds. From 2010-2017, as it's not fair to count the more recent ones, here is a list of top 6ers taken in rounds 3-7:

Mark Stone
Brendan Gallagher*
Zach Hyman
Bryan Rust (3rd)
Ondrej Palat
Johnny Gaudreau*
Vincent Trocheck (3rd)*
Dominic Kubalik*
Jake Guentzel (3rd)*
Pavel Buchnevich (3rd)
Kevin Labanc
Viktor Arvidsson*
Brayden Point (3rd)*
Anthony Cirelli (3rd)
Jesper Bratt
Drake Batherson

Some of those guys are borderline as they play on bad teams, but it's not an impressive list. That's 16 guys in 8 drafts for an average of 2 per draft, not a lot. 6 of them were taken in the 3rd round so your chances in 4-7 are really low. The guys with asterisks have scored 30 goals. There have been seven 30 goal scorers taken round 3 on since 2010, and only four taken in rounds 4-7, and the Kings actually grabbed one of them.

So I'm not sure how much talent is available in the later rounds. Those 16 players are 1.3% of the total players taken in those rounds, and the 30 goal scorers are .58%. So you basically have a 1 in 100 chance of getting a top 6er in rounds 3-7 and a 1 in 200 chance of getting a 30 goal scorer. You could add or subtract from that list as it's subjective, but the numbers aren't going to change much. TB has done better than anyone and has cups to show for it. The Kings are probably one of the better late drafting teams in the league.
 
Mark Stone
Brendan Gallagher*
Zach Hyman
Bryan Rust (3rd)
Ondrej Palat
Johnny Gaudreau*
Vincent Trocheck (3rd)*
Dominic Kubalik*
Jake Guentzel (3rd)*
Pavel Buchnevich (3rd)
Kevin Labanc
Viktor Arvidsson*
Brayden Point (3rd)*
Anthony Cirelli (3rd)
Jesper Bratt
Drake Batherson

Agree on all points.

Also of those 16 Gaudreau, Kubalik, and Bratt never played in the AHL. Buchnevich played only 4 AHL games, Point played 9, Labanc played 21 which limits how much credit their respective teams development staff can get for their success.
 
Fine. I'm convinced.

The development staff can't be held accountable for the Kings being 25th or worst offensively 7 out of the last 11 years. Apparently saying the Kings are better at developing defensemen and goalies than forwards, and they need to improve something to increase their success rate, is unfair, too harsh, or not being considerate.

Since Blake took over, these have been their forward picks in the top 2 rounds:
Byfield
Turcotte
Kaliyev
Fagemo
Kupari
Thomas
Vilardi
Anderson-Dolan
8th overall?
49th overall?

For reference, these are the defensemen taken in the same timespan in the first 2 rounds:
Brock Faber
Helge Grans
Tobias Bjornfot
8th overall?
49th overall?

So what criteria would need to be met for the statement "the Kings need to fix something with the development staff when it comes to forwards" to be agreeable?

So far, Bjornfot is top-4. 1/3. Vilardi is slated in the top-6. 1/8. If going by expected to be in the starting lineup next season, add JAD and Byfield to make it 3/8. So as far as regular NHLers, the forwards are higher percentage. As far as top end impact, the defense leads.

For those who feel the forwards have been developed at an acceptable level, what is the threshold where, if not met, you'll question whether or not the development staff is not meeting expectations.
- how will you consider a successful development?
- how many need to be successfully developed?
- how long do they have to meet this threshold?
 
I think LA acknowledged they needed better people in critical developmental phases when they let an awesome winning coach in Stothers go and brought in a developmental style coach in Worbo.

For all we know it was Emerson that made that call.

no matter what, I like the philosophy that Blake’s group has shown at the draft table. Picking skill over caveman. Saying that it’s gonna take a few years to see how the development staff actually makes out being handed such skilled players. We have had some major setback with injuries with Vilardi , Kupari, and even Turcotte losing valuable developmental time due to injury.

Just what I saw with Butterfield and Kaliyev learning on the fly and addressing some of the warts in their games last year I am willing to cut the developmental stuff a little bit of slack.
 
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RHD...we need a LHD. upgrade, yes, need no. if you move those kinds of assets, get the guy you need.

It wouldn't hurt to have two pairings that we could send out

Also, Drew will start slotting lower, and Jones can eat those minutes DD once did.

Trading for and signing Jones assures we have a number one D man for the next phase.

It would also give the Kings time to find and develop the next #1.
 
I wonder if LA misses out on better options if Foligno on a 1 or 2 year deal makes some sense. Guy was great for Columbus last couple of years, sure didn't produce in Toronto though, but that could lower the price.
 
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