Speculation: 2020-21 LA Kings News/Rumors/Roster Discussion Part II

[Reaper45]

I wonder if LA misses out on better options if Foligno on a 1 or 2 year deal makes some sense. Guy was great for Columbus last couple of years, sure didn't produce in Toronto though, but that could lower the price.

Wasn’t he playing hurt in Toronto?

 

[YP44]

Wasn’t he playing hurt in Toronto?

believe so

 

[kovacro]

I wonder if LA misses out on better options if Foligno on a 1 or 2 year deal makes some sense. Guy was great for Columbus last couple of years, sure didn't produce in Toronto though, but that could lower the price.

Apparently, the thought is he is going back to Columbus. Even at the time of the trade to Toronto, there was talk of this.

 

[kovacro]

They want to clear cap and partially rebuild on they fly… I’m sure that 1st rounder could be in play to help clear $11.8 million

Flyers currently have $13 million in cap space. Unless LA is getting Cam York plus another 1st round pick next year from Philly, I wouldn't even bother picking up the phone.

Apparently to Flyers are talking to Seattle about taking on one of their bigger contracts. We'll see where that goes.

Makes one wonder if Philly are looking to go big this off-season by adding two top end guys like Jones and Eichel or one of Calgary's guys - Monahan/Gaudreau/Tkachuk?

 

[KopitarFAN]

Kings Of The Podcast: Episode 99 with Viktor Arvidsson

Arvidsson will be wearing #33

 

[BigKing]

Fine. I'm convinced.

The development staff can't be held accountable for the Kings being 25th or worst offensively 7 out of the last 11 years. Apparently saying the Kings are better at developing defensemen and goalies than forwards, and they need to improve something to increase their success rate, is unfair, too harsh, or not being considerate.

Since Blake took over, these have been their forward picks in the top 2 rounds:
Byfield
Turcotte
Kaliyev
Fagemo
Kupari
Thomas
Vilardi
Anderson-Dolan
8th overall?
49th overall?

For reference, these are the defensemen taken in the same timespan in the first 2 rounds:
Brock Faber
Helge Grans
Tobias Bjornfot
8th overall?
49th overall?

So what criteria would need to be met for the statement "the Kings need to fix something with the development staff when it comes to forwards" to be agreeable?

So far, Bjornfot is top-4. 1/3. Vilardi is slated in the top-6. 1/8. If going by expected to be in the starting lineup next season, add JAD and Byfield to make it 3/8. So as far as regular NHLers, the forwards are higher percentage. As far as top end impact, the defense leads.

For those who feel the forwards have been developed at an acceptable level, what is the threshold where, if not met, you'll question whether or not the development staff is not meeting expectations.
- how will you consider a successful development?
- how many need to be successfully developed?
- how long do they have to meet this threshold?

This is mostly correct since we see forwards traded from here go on to score at higher clips. The development staff is not coaching the team and they are not the ones playing the game at a level of intensity that is generally below what is necessary to win at the NHL level.

As for the discussion of Blake draft picks, Bjornfot is the most advanced 1st round pick he has drafted. Played seven games against men in his draft year and was more of a finished product when drafted, a high floor/low ceiling guy. Vilardi would probably sway things more for "top end" impact if not for the injury.

I think the Kings scouting staff is pretty decent at identifying "safe" defenseman that probably don't need as much development to reach their ceilings. Grans doesn't fit that bill so it will be interesting to see how that goes. Faber is probably the best D prospect and he is developing in the NCAA--like Anderson mostly did--but was also deemed as a "safe" defenseman.

"Safe" defenseman are still important. "Safe" forwards are pretty much what the Kings had been drafting up until Blake (Turcotte is "safe" but high-end safe v. Nick Shore safe) with the high-scoring talent dudes generally being midgets. Kubalik was one of those nice home run swings but they couldn't get him in the fold. Safe forwards don't move the needle and if all you draft is low-ceiling forwards for a bunch of years, it will be very difficult to get good results. Hell, even Kempe was kind of a "safe" pick with the good 3rd liner/maybe a 2nd liner talk.

If a lot of these 1/2 round forwards disappoint, then I think we can start looking at development as more of an issue.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

This is a few years old but the import of it hasn't changed: EXPANDED BLUE BULLET DRAFT PICK VALUE CHART

It is simply a fact of the NHL that drafting higher gets you better players.

Sure, development plays a role (along with a player's internal drive, health, and many other factors). It's easy to pick isolated and anecdotal examples of players teams have nabbed in later rounds who have gone on to become good players or even stars. Those are the exception, however, for all teams in the NHL. Some teams may be slightly more efficient and effective at turning players drafted in later rounds into good players or stars, but there's a pretty clear correlation between what a player does with his NHL career and how high he was picked.

The Kings barely had any high (or any at all) picks over the course of roughly a decade. That's a pretty simple answer to why few great top forwards have been developed with the development team.

 

[YP44]

Flyers currently have $13 million in cap space. Unless LA is getting Cam York plus another 1st round pick next year from Philly, I wouldn't even bother picking up the phone.

Apparently to Flyers are talking to Seattle about taking on one of their bigger contracts. We'll see where that goes.

Makes one wonder if Philly are looking to go big this off-season by adding two top end guys like Jones and Eichel or one of Calgary's guys - Monahan/Gaudreau/Tkachuk?

freidman said on 960 the fan this morning he thinks the flyers are out on Eichel. They seem to be linked to Jones though.

 

[Reclamation Project]

More Kings gear released -

Hockey Gloves, Pro Stock, Best NHL Ice Hockey Gloves For Sale

 

[YP44]

More Kings gear released -

Hockey Gloves, Pro Stock, Best NHL Ice Hockey Gloves For Sale

that site is sweet. it does not say but do you know if this is all USD or CAD? Edit: nevermind I see it is USD

 

[Bandit]

It's Toronto. Trading their #1 D so they could add another 5 million dollar forward is the most Toronto thing ever.

LMAO, like I said...

Report: Maple Leafs among teams interested in Hall

@piston

 

[Mats26]

And as pointed out by Redcard, that's basically 3 out of 4, or 75%, of those normal picks.

There's not a 'great history,' but there's also not a BAD history. Is it fair to have concern? 100%. I've said as much before. Is it fair to act as if the development team sucks? Not at all. But that's the implication--it's not that folks are giving them an incomplete, they're giving them an F preemptively. It's the cynicism spilling over.

Some of the offense tax was almost certainly on team 'vision', ie. DL-style draftees, too. And trying to add guys to a competitive roster vs. drafting for the future.

Now these idiots are playing a 1-3-1 too, but I digress.

As [B]@Mats26[/B] points out, and I'm sure you're well aware and I"M sure most of the forum agrees, there was a VAST change in philosophy with the organizational changeover to just an insane volume of 'skill' forwards. Now we will see what the development staff can or can't do--because while most everyone would agree the Kings didn't have many chips in play before, most everyone would agree now that the Kings are loaded on the farm at forward. If they mostly fizzle out? Well, it will be pretty clear where the issue is (and unfortunately too late). But thus far it's hard to be too mad at them.


.

Yes the 2017 year was a turning point. After a little digging my hunch about Emerson was right:

In 2018 Nelson Emerson was moved from Player Development to Player Personel.
LA Kings Promote Nelson Emerson and Glen Murray; Reign Name Seeley New GM

Seems to me the right move was made to get him away from development. Murray and Seeley hired Wroblewski and we have implemented new development practices. I hope it works to squeeze some offense out of all of the prospects, we got to develop these young guns well.

I agree TMac needs to drop that 1-3-1 next year or any offensive progress will be halted in that formation.

 

[Piston]

LMAO, like I said...

Report: Maple Leafs among teams interested in Hall

@piston

LOL

 

[johnjm22]

It is simply a fact of the NHL that drafting higher gets you better players.

And this is way I disagree with trying to improve the current team.

There's nothing we can do to make this current roster a serious contender. Improving this team just means you're drafting lower, thus reducing your chances of landing a good player.

 

[Gjwrams]

And this is way I disagree with trying to improve the current team.

There's nothing we can do to make this current roster a serious contender. Improving this team just means you're drafting lower, thus reducing your chances of landing a good player.

Again, at some point you have to try and get better unless you just feel that you draft top 3 every year until one day you just make the playoffs.

 

[johnjm22]

Again, at some point you have to try and get better unless you just feel that you draft top 3 every year until one day you just make the playoffs.

Agree.

But I don't think that point is now.

 

[BigKing]

And this is way I disagree with trying to improve the current team.

There's nothing we can do to make this current roster a serious contender. Improving this team just means you're drafting lower, thus reducing your chances of landing a good player.

And the argument against your case is that Blake has made five first round picks over the last four drafts and traded for 7OA from 2017 as well. Another one in 8OA is coming. If 8OA is traded, there is a good chance it is for a former 1st round pick as well. 11 and 8 are still legit talents and also previous 1st round picks. Toss in six 2nd round picks as well and you've got a pretty good cache of high picks but, at the same time, making this team better doesn't mean they aren't still picking in that 69% (nice) range anyways next season.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Fine. I'm convinced.

The development staff can't be held accountable for the Kings being 25th or worst offensively 7 out of the last 11 years. Apparently saying the Kings are better at developing defensemen and goalies than forwards, and they need to improve something to increase their success rate, is unfair, too harsh, or not being considerate.

Since Blake took over, these have been their forward picks in the top 2 rounds:
Byfield
Turcotte
Kaliyev
Fagemo
Kupari
Thomas
Vilardi
Anderson-Dolan
8th overall?
49th overall?

For reference, these are the defensemen taken in the same timespan in the first 2 rounds:
Brock Faber
Helge Grans
Tobias Bjornfot
8th overall?
49th overall?

So what criteria would need to be met for the statement "the Kings need to fix something with the development staff when it comes to forwards" to be agreeable?

So far, Bjornfot is top-4. 1/3. Vilardi is slated in the top-6. 1/8. If going by expected to be in the starting lineup next season, add JAD and Byfield to make it 3/8. So as far as regular NHLers, the forwards are higher percentage. As far as top end impact, the defense leads.

For those who feel the forwards have been developed at an acceptable level, what is the threshold where, if not met, you'll question whether or not the development staff is not meeting expectations.
- how will you consider a successful development?
- how many need to be successfully developed?
- how long do they have to meet this threshold?

I don't think it's important that you're 'convinced.' I think it's vital we question things. I just think it's also VERY important to acknowledge that they haven't had enough at bats to judge--but if you
WERE to judge, they've turned out the guys they DID get at a very strong rate.

I don't know if you remember me saying this at all but I think we are on the same wavelength. As BigKing sort of points out below, Kings are best-in-class at drafting and placing Just-A-Guys in the NHL. It really is "AINEC" the value we get with picks outside the top 3 rounds. However, since we HAVENT had much opportunity, I always wondered aloud if guys like Murray and Emerson COULD take a guy like Vilardi, Turcotte to the next level. But it's not because they suck or haven't been doing it--it's that they haven't had the opportunity to as well. I think THAT is a fair concern. But to look at just raw numbers rather than percentages--unfair criticism.

As far as your questions--
--I don't have the time to sit around and develop a true metric. But I think it's fair to hold them accountable to pre-draft expectations. IE a guy like Kempe--we expected middle six with top six upside. He nailed it, and is just too inconsistent to be a 'true' top end guy. That's a hit, imo. So someone like Turcotte would have to be a true top sixer, etc. Once you travel outside even the 2nd round, you should just be happy with a JAG.
--I would say, like above, that would be per round. I know floating around there's a "% by round of NHL impact" that you could hold them to. ALL the 1st rounders should by NHLers in some form. The top-10 picks NEED to be impact players. But for example if Kupari ends up as Kempe, I would consider that a success, even if this forum thinks he's a punching bag.
--I'm going to arbitrarily say '5 years' because I think the average NHL career is shorter than many here want to admit.

I don't think the above are long-thought-out answers, mostly just spitballing, but do they at least give you a sense of what I'm thinking?

This is mostly correct since we see forwards traded from here go on to score at higher clips. The development staff is not coaching the team and they are not the ones playing the game at a level of intensity that is generally below what is necessary to win at the NHL level.

As for the discussion of Blake draft picks, Bjornfot is the most advanced 1st round pick he has drafted. Played seven games against men in his draft year and was more of a finished product when drafted, a high floor/low ceiling guy. Vilardi would probably sway things more for "top end" impact if not for the injury.

I think the Kings scouting staff is pretty decent at identifying "safe" defenseman that probably don't need as much development to reach their ceilings. Grans doesn't fit that bill so it will be interesting to see how that goes. Faber is probably the best D prospect and he is developing in the NCAA--like Anderson mostly did--but was also deemed as a "safe" defenseman.

"Safe" defenseman are still important. "Safe" forwards are pretty much what the Kings had been drafting up until Blake (Turcotte is "safe" but high-end safe v. Nick Shore safe) with the high-scoring talent dudes generally being midgets. Kubalik was one of those nice home run swings but they couldn't get him in the fold. Safe forwards don't move the needle and if all you draft is low-ceiling forwards for a bunch of years, it will be very difficult to get good results. Hell, even Kempe was kind of a "safe" pick with the good 3rd liner/maybe a 2nd liner talk.

If a lot of these 1/2 round forwards disappoint, then I think we can start looking at development as more of an issue.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

More info...

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

The Kings light up green the most, ranking first in total games played and games played per pick, second in total NHLers and total points produced by those NHLers and third in hit percentage.

...

What we can do with this is tabulate an expected number of wins/GSVA for each team’s draft capital and then compare that to what they actually garnered. This means that a team like Edmonton that’s consistently drafted in the top five will have a much higher bar to clear while a perennial contender like Pittsburgh that’s had few valuable picks will be graded far more generously.

So which teams have outperformed their draft capital most significantly, ie: picked the best on relative terms?

 

[BigKing]

And this is way I disagree with trying to improve the current team.

There's nothing we can do to make this current roster a serious contender. Improving this team just means you're drafting lower, thus reducing your chances of landing a good player.

And the argument against your case is that Blake has made five first round picks over the last four drafts and traded for 7OA from 2017 as well. Another one in 8OA is coming. If 8OA is traded, there is a good chance it is for a former 1st round pick as well. 11 and 8 are still legit talents and also previous 1st round picks. Toss in six 2nd round picks as well and you've got a pretty good cache of high picks but, at the same time, making this team better doesn't mean they aren't still picking in that 69% (nice) range anyways next season.

 

[BigKing]

More info...

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

<SNIP>
...



View attachment 452226

The 2005 draft really skews this since Kopitar barely misses games for an eternity now and then Doughty is in a similar boat but, yeah, the Kings haven't necessarily drafted poorly: DL just traded all the 1st round picks away and then lost the touch on those later round picks, although Cernak/Kubalik/Roy kind of toss water on that idea as well. It's more that Zykov/McKeown didn't happen and those guys needed to happen because they were the high picks with the 1st rounders gone. To be fair, we all thought they would be awesome because DL could walk on water at that point. Zykov was supposed to be a steal and "the genius DL did it again" type stuff.

Too much of a gap between Pearson and to when Kempe actually contributed. To that point, however, the Kings were supposed to be a dynasty in the making after the '14 run so the talent already on the team should have been enough to stay competitive.

 

[Gjwrams]

Agree.

But I don't think that point is now.

Then is your opinion that players in the current pipeline are not good enough to mature and get better to lead this team to contention.

 

[FSL KINGS]

The time to start turning the corner is now. With the youth coming, they don't need to be taught how to lose like Buffalo. They need a chance to win. Byfield will most likely be on the team next year. Others are following soon after. Icing a joke of a team is bad for development.

It would have been nice to land a top end guy like McDavid, Eichel, Mathews, McKinnon. That didn't happen & those guys haven't had much success yet anyways.

Maybe improvements are made, there are injuries & Kings fall down the standings anyways then win the lotto. NYR picked 1st after signing Panarin. Who knows what will happen.

 

[BigKing]

The time to start turning the corner is now. With the youth coming, they don't need to be taught how to lose like Buffalo. They need a chance to win. Byfield will most likely be on the team next year. Others are following soon after. Icing a joke of a team is bad for development.

It would have been nice to land a top end guy like McDavid, Eichel, Mathews, McKinnon. That didn't happen & those guys haven't had much success yet anyways.

Maybe improvements are made, there are injuries & Kings fall down the standings anyways then win the lotto. NYR picked 1st after signing Panarin. Who knows what will happen.

McKinnon wasn't even McKinnon right away.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Look like ticket sales are slumping. It’s not quite $10 bucks a seat, with a free soda and hot dog, but it’s still pretty low prices. Sad fall from the height of the cup years, thanks BLuc.

Die Hard Season Ticket Memberships | $20 Per Game