Speculation: 2020-21 LA Kings News/Rumors/Roster Discussion Part II

[kovacro]

Just going back to Arizona, I like Michael Bunting as well. Not a household name but a good player that can certainly contribute offensively. Group 6 UFA.

 

[redcard]

Here are the defensemen drafted by the Kings outside of the first two rounds from 2010-2019:
Jordan Spence
Kim Nousiainen
Braden Doyle
Mikey Anderson
Markus Phillips
Cole Hults
Jacob Moverare
Jacob Friend
Chaz Reddekopp
Matt Roy
Jacob Middleton
Zac Leslie
Colin Miller
Paul LaDue
Nick Ebert
Kevin Gravel

The Kings have developed at LEAST as many top-4 defenseman in the 3-7th rounds as top-6 forwards in rounds 1-2 in the past decade. They can churn out regular NHL defensemen and they don't need a top pick to do it. Why do the Kings need a top pick in order to make a top-six forward?

Which gets back to the question: is the staff not qualified, are the prospects not good enough, is the direction of the team not conducive to generating skilled prospects, or are they not given the proper tools to increase the rate of success?

Matt Roy was a 7th round pick in 2015. There is one forward taken in the 7th round in 2015 that has played in the NHL.

Collin Miller was a 5th round pick in 2012. The only notable forward taken in that round was Kerfoot. There were 8 Defenseman taken after the 2nd round with 300+ NHL games compared to 5 forwards.

None of this suggests that the Kings fail to develop forwards any worse than the rest of the league. They're completely in bounds with their respective draft position.

Mikey Anderson was a 2017 pick. So if we want to include him we have to take Vilardi and Anderson-Dolan into consideration as well.

 

[Mats26]

First off, I'm not shifting blame. The blame is clear, its the #1 problem with the team post cup. We traded all our draft picks. Blaming the development team for lack of forwards when they barely had any to develop is shifting blame.

And yes, Bud Hollaway (2006) and Oscar Moller (2007) aren't on my list because I didn't go back past 2010. Because if you do want to go back that far I would also include Clifford, Deslauriers, Nolan, Dowd, Simmonds, and King. All of whom far outperformed their draft position, and could be considered developed successfully. Dowd and Nolan were 7th round picks in 2009 yet they each have over 300 NHL games played and their names on the cup.

Hell, even Loktionov is 3rd in games played amongst forwards taken in the 5th round of 2008.

Not one name in your list was developed as a legit top forward we used. We wasted 3 good assets for Lucic becasue we couldn't bring up any talent from our pool. Did we forget that already? Imagine developing another Toffoli, that trade doesn't happen and who knows where we would be now if we kept that #1 pick.

How does Tampa have great drafted players and we are worried about how to fit a talented prospect becasue of Ryan Smyth's roster spot and ice time?!? (pre cup as well).

For Tampa, keep Ross Colton, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk in mind. Even as cup winners they still produce NHL talented forwards that contribute.

 

[DrHansReinhardt]

delete

 

[kovacro]

When has Arizona ever kept a player that was worth a shit in the last decade? They're always building toward the middle of nowhere.

Currently they have retained Keller and Chychrun on multi-year deals. Two pretty good players.

Actually, the Chychrun deal looks really good at $4.6 million per year.

Also have Dvorak and Schmaltz locked up for 4 and 5 more years respectively.

Maybe they don’t want to commit to another long term deal at a high number?

 

[redcard]

Not one name in your list was developed as a legit top forward we used. We wasted 3 good assets for Lucic becasue we couldn't bring up any talent from our pool. Did we forget that already? Imagine developing another Toffoli, that trade doesn't happen and who knows where we would be now if we kept that #1 pick.

How does Tampa have great drafted players and we are worried about how to fit a talented prospect becasue of Ryan Smyth's roster spot and ice time?!? (pre cup as well).

For Tampa, keep Ross Colton, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk in mind. Even as cup winners they still produce NHL talented forwards that contribute.

All of the players I mentioned are better players than the majority of players drafted around them. That's my point. They were developed as good as can be expected given their draft position. If you expect better players from 3rd to 7th round picks you are vastly misunderstanding the likelihood of 3rd to 7th round picks having NHL careers.

Using Tampa as an example is silly, they just won their second consecutive cup, they are clearly the exception to the rule. They hit home runs with their late round picks and won cups for it. 30 other teams didn't.

And I don't even know where to go with your Lucic point. Our highest draft pick in the 4 drafts prior to the Lucic trade was #29. Of course we didn't have any talent to bring up.

 

[Mats26]

Matt Roy was a 7th round pick in 2015. There is one forward taken in the 7th round in 2015 that has played in the NHL.

Collin Miller was a 5th round pick in 2012. The only notable forward taken in that round was Kerfoot. There were 8 Defenseman taken after the 2nd round with 300+ NHL games compared to 5 forwards.

None of this suggests that the Kings fail to develop forwards any worse than the rest of the league. They're completely in bounds with their respective draft position.

Mikey Anderson was a 2017 pick. So if we want to include him we have to take Vilardi and Anderson-Dolan into consideration as well.

The last few years we are showing some promise with the forwards but how many teams draft and develop a top 6 forward once a decade?? Coyotes with Keller, and maybe the Preds, Pens, CBJ? Not many teams go a full decade without adding some talent to their top 6 from draft\development.

 

[redcard]

The last few years we are showing some promise with the forwards but how many teams draft and develop a top 6 forward once a decade?? Coyotes with Keller, and maybe the Preds, Pens, CBJ? Not many teams go a full decade without adding some talent to their top 6 from draft\development.

Because we've drafted 8 forwards in the the first 2 rounds of last 4 drafts! Two of them top 5 picks.

Compared to 4 forwards in the first 2 rounds of the prior 7 drafts! None of them higher than the #29th pick.

That's the difference!

 

[Mats26]

All of the players I mentioned are better players than the majority of players drafted around them. That's my point. They were developed as good as can be expected given their draft position. If you expect better players from 3rd to 7th round picks you are vastly misunderstanding the likelihood of 3rd to 7th round picks having NHL careers.

Using Tampa as an example is silly, they just won their second consecutive cup, they are clearly the exception to the rule. They hit home runs with their late round picks and won cups for it. 30 other teams didn't.

And I don't even know where to go with your Lucic point. Our highest draft pick in the 4 drafts prior to the Lucic trade was #29. Of course we didn't have any talent to bring up.

Isn't this what you said:
"Matt Roy was a 7th round pick in 2015. There is one forward taken in the 7th round in 2015 that has played in the NHL."

If your are going to use Roy drafted in 7th round as an example on how to find late talent then draft position is no excuse not to draft\develop a forward taken outside of round one. If other teams can do it so should we.

 

[Bandit]

Currently they have retained Keller and Chychrun on multi-year deals. Two pretty good players.

Actually, the Chychrun deal looks really good at $4.6 million per year.

Also have Dvorak and Schmaltz locked up for 4 and 5 more years respectively.

Maybe they don’t want to commit to another long term deal at a high number?

Bet they're both traded within 2 years. Phoenix gonna Phoenix.

 

[bland]

Here are the defensemen drafted by the Kings outside of the first two rounds from 2010-2019:
Jordan Spence
Kim Nousiainen
Braden Doyle
Mikey Anderson
Markus Phillips
Cole Hults
Jacob Moverare
Jacob Friend
Chaz Reddekopp
Matt Roy
Jacob Middleton
Zac Leslie
Colin Miller
Paul LaDue
Nick Ebert
Kevin Gravel

The Kings have developed at LEAST as many top-4 defenseman in the 3-7th rounds as top-6 forwards in rounds 1-2 in the past decade. They can churn out regular NHL defensemen and they don't need a top pick to do it. Why do the Kings need a top pick in order to make a top-six forward?

Which gets back to the question: is the staff not qualified, are the prospects not good enough, is the direction of the team not conducive to generating skilled prospects, or are they not given the proper tools to increase the rate of success?

The bigger concern for me is that Roy is the only skater in that time frame that has overachieved their draft position.

Not being able to identify, develop and/or encourage players to extend themselves beyond their initial projections is the issue here.

 

[King'sPawn]

Matt Roy was a 7th round pick in 2015. There is one forward taken in the 7th round in 2015 that has played in the NHL.

Which shows the successful capability of developing a defenseman outside of the first two rounds.

Collin Miller was a 5th round pick in 2012. The only notable forward taken in that round was Kerfoot. There were 8 Defenseman taken after the 2nd round with 300+ NHL games compared to 5 forwards.

Again, this is showing they know how to develop defensemen. And why are you comparing just the same round? Several players get drafted in later rounds.

None of this suggests that the Kings fail to develop forwards any worse than the rest of the league. They're completely in bounds with their respective draft position.

It suggests the Kings are churning out defensemen drafted in rounds 3-7 at an equal rate than forwards taken in rounds 1-2, because YOU said

They only drafted 4 forwards in the first 2 rounds over the course of 7! years.

Mikey Anderson was a 2017 pick. So if we want to include him we have to take Vilardi and Anderson-Dolan into consideration as well.

Again, you are saying the Kings only drafted 4 forwards in the first two rounds. I listed all defensemen taken outside of the two rounds to show that's a weak explanation and excuse.

If I may... you need roster spots for those players to occupy in order to consider them "succesfully developed" as "top 6 players right"?

Or they get traded and they make another team's top 4, like with Colin Miller.

I reject the idea that 2010-2014 (or even 2016 really) are open for debate because the team was winning cups/contending so we're really looking at a window of 2016-2020 when the team STILL had Kopitar/Carter/Toffoli/Brown/Iafallo.

Toffoli was drafted in 2010. How can you exclude a player who made the roster out of a year where he made it?

I've asked this many times: how good is a developmental staff if they NEED a top first round pick to develop into a top-6/regular NHL player? If you don't feel a high first is needed, is the argument then that the scouting isn't good enough?

I'm all for keeping Emerson if these forwards can come closer to meeting their potential. I'm not saying he's THE problem. However, Toffoli, Pearson, and Kempe are the only forwards who became NHLers after having spent any amount of time under the tutelage of the development staff, at dev camp, in the minors, etc. I don't think 3 players in a decade is a good metric. I just feel the current arrangement doesn't work well enough.

 

[All The Kings Men]

The bigger concern for me is that Roy is the only skater in that time frame that has overachieved their draft position.

Not being able to identify, develop and/or encourage players to extend themselves beyond their initial projections is the issue here.

Sean Walker wasn't drafted. I'd say he over achieved his draft position.

 

[redcard]

Forwards drafted with picks #1-28 in the 7 drafts from 2010-2016

Anaheim: 5
Boston: 2
Buffalo: 6
Calgary: 7
Carolina: 3
Chicago: 4
Colorado: 6
Columbus: 6
Dallas: 4
Detroit: 4
Edmonton: 6
Florida: 6
Los Angeles: 0
Minnesota: 4
Montreal: 3
Nashville: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York Islanders: 5
New York Rangers: 1
Ottawa: 6
Philadelphia: 4
Phoenix: 5
Pittsburgh: 2
San Jose: 4
St. Louis: 4
Tampa Bay: 4
Toronto: 5
Vancouver: 6
Washington: 4
Winnipeg: 6

League average of 4.3 forwards per team, drafted higher than any forward the Kings took between 2010-2016.

 

[King'sPawn]

Forwards drafted with picks #1-28 in the 7 drafts from 2010-2016

Anaheim: 5
Boston: 2
Buffalo: 6
Calgary: 7
Carolina: 3
Chicago: 4
Colorado: 6
Columbus: 6
Dallas: 4
Detroit: 4
Edmonton: 6
Florida: 6
Los Angeles: 0
Minnesota: 4
Montreal: 3
Nashville: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York Islanders: 5
New York Rangers: 1
Ottawa: 6
Philadelphia: 4
Phoenix: 5
Pittsburgh: 2
San Jose: 4
St. Louis: 4
Tampa Bay: 4
Toronto: 5
Vancouver: 6
Washington: 4
Winnipeg: 6

League average of 4.3 forwards per team, drafted higher than any forward the Kings took between 2010-2016.

Hate to break it to you, but Tampa had Palat, Point, Kucherov, and Cirelli last night. All were picked by Tampa in rounds 2-7 and all were picked from 2010-2016.

Saying the Kings didn't get to pick high enough to nab talent just sounds like an excuse, or that you're blaming the scouting staff.

 

[bland]

Sean Walker wasn't drafted. I'd say he over achieved his draft position.

I guess we are all splitting hairs here, but collegiate free agents aren't really part of the developmental system in their formative years. I can't recall if Walker played all four years or not, but the Kings had no part in those early years and were betting on a product closer to finished than having their hands on a kid for three or four years before collegiate UFAs enter the organization.

Hell, I would consider collegiate free agents who don't make it to be bigger indictments of the organization than draft picks who don't pan out. That's a failure of scouting.

 

[kilowatt]

Forwards drafted with picks #1-28 in the 7 drafts from 2010-2016

Anaheim: 5
Boston: 2
Buffalo: 6
Calgary: 7
Carolina: 3
Chicago: 4
Colorado: 6
Columbus: 6
Dallas: 4
Detroit: 4
Edmonton: 6
Florida: 6
Los Angeles: 0
Minnesota: 4
Montreal: 3
Nashville: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York Islanders: 5
New York Rangers: 1
Ottawa: 6
Philadelphia: 4
Phoenix: 5
Pittsburgh: 2
San Jose: 4
St. Louis: 4
Tampa Bay: 4
Toronto: 5
Vancouver: 6
Washington: 4
Winnipeg: 6

League average of 4.3 forwards per team, drafted higher than any forward the Kings took between 2010-2016.

Do it again, but this time include 1-30. Kings picked Pearson and Kempe after the cup wins.

 

[Gjwrams]

Forwards drafted with picks #1-28 in the 7 drafts from 2010-2016

Anaheim: 5
Boston: 2
Buffalo: 6
Calgary: 7
Carolina: 3
Chicago: 4
Colorado: 6
Columbus: 6
Dallas: 4
Detroit: 4
Edmonton: 6
Florida: 6
Los Angeles: 0
Minnesota: 4
Montreal: 3
Nashville: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York Islanders: 5
New York Rangers: 1
Ottawa: 6
Philadelphia: 4
Phoenix: 5
Pittsburgh: 2
San Jose: 4
St. Louis: 4
Tampa Bay: 4
Toronto: 5
Vancouver: 6
Washington: 4
Winnipeg: 6

League average of 4.3 forwards per team, drafted higher than any forward the Kings took between 2010-2016.

2010 Kings 1st Rd #10 Derek Forbort. Fwds picked after him. Tarasenko, Bjugstad, Kevin Hayes, Kuznetsov, Brock Nelson
2011 Kings 1st Rd #19 Traded to Edmonton for Dustin Penner. Fwds they could have taken. Danault, Namestikov, Rakell
2012 Kings 1st Rd #30 Tanner Pearson
2013 Kings 1st Rd #27 Traded to Columbus for Jeff Carter. Fwds they could have taken Nothing worth mentioning.
2014 Kings 1st Rd #29 Adrian Kempe
2015 Kings 1st Rd #13 Traded to Boston for Lucic. Fwds picked after him. DeBrusk, Barzal, Connor, Boeser, Konecny
2016 Kings 1st Rd #21 Traded to Carolina for Sekera. Fwds picked after him. Nothing worth mentioning.

So for me the two shit the bed moments are:

2010 We drafted Forbort (who actually was the type of D-Man DL liked) when we could have landed any one of five top 6 forwards.
2015 We traded for Lucic and could have again landed any one of five Top 6 forwards.

The 2016 pick didn't really hurt us a ton in terms of missed players in the 1st round. Nothing else that was drafted after us in the 1st wasn't anything to write home about.

Bottom line, is I don't think it is so much of lack of development as it is drafting a mediocre D-Man and putting all the chips in to get Lucic and another run at the cup, instead of "Drafting" a forward.

 

[redcard]

Do it again, but this time include 1-30. Kings picked Pearson and Kempe after the cup wins.

That's my point. #29 and #30 were our highest drafted forwards. Every other team drafted 4.3 forwards higher than us in that span.

Hate to break it to you, but Tampa had Palat, Point, Kucherov, and Cirelli last night. All were picked by Tampa in rounds 2-7 and all were picked from 2010-2016.

Saying the Kings didn't get to pick high enough to nab talent just sounds like an excuse, or that you're blaming the scouting staff.

Yes and that's why they're the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning and 30 other teams aren't.

I'm not blaming scouting at all. We've gotten exactly what we should expect from our drafted forwards given their draft position. I'm saying that if you really think we should have gotten better forwards out of our draft crop you're vastly overestimating the frequency by which a mid to late round pick succeeds in the NHL and that you are unfairly blaming the development staff.

 

[Mats26]

I guess we are all splitting hairs here, but collegiate free agents aren't really part of the developmental system in their formative years. I can't recall if Walker played all four years or not, but the Kings had no part in those early years and were betting on a product closer to finished than having their hands on a kid for three or four years before collegiate UFAs enter the organization.

Hell, I would consider collegiate free agents who don't make it to be bigger indictments of the organization than draft picks who don't pan out. That's a failure of scouting.

If I recall Walker did spend ~2 years in the AHL, so we were able to get him to push through to the NHL. Keep in mind D men take a while longer than forwards to develop. I do agree however he came in closer to ready than junior drafted prospects.

 

[DryIslandBartender]

Do it again, but this time include 1-30. Kings picked Pearson and Kempe after the cup wins.

Not to mention we picked up Carter, Gaborik, Penner, Gagne etc.

 

[Mats26]

That's my point. #29 and #30 were our highest drafted forwards. Every other team drafted 4.3 forwards higher than us in that span.



Yes and that's why they're the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning and 30 other teams aren't.

I'm not blaming scouting at all. We've gotten exactly what we should expect from our drafted forwards given their draft position. I'm saying that if you really think we should have gotten better forwards out of our draft crop you're vastly overestimating the frequency by which a mid to late round pick succeeds in the NHL and that you are unfairly blaming the development staff.

How do you explain Voynov, Martinez, Cernak, Roy all picked in later rounds then? Seems we can find those gems on D.

So do we have a vision for talented forwards or not? Seems to me it doesn't matter what round we were picking, we just were not good enough at drafting\developing talented forwards for a long time.

 

[redcard]

How do you explain Voynov, Martinez, Cernak, Roy all picked in later rounds then? Seems we can find those gems on D.

So do we have a vision for talented forwards or not? Seems to me it doesn't matter what round we were picking, we just were not good enough at drafting\developing talented forwards for a long time.

How does that compare to other teams around the league? Are we having success finding defenseman in rounds 3-7 at a higher rate than other teams? Are we better at scouting them? How many defensemen have we drafted compared to other teams around the league? Do our defensemen spend more time in the minors than other teams? Do we take more European or College players than other teams? What is the success rate of a mid-late round defenseman contributing in the NHL league wide?

Look at the actual drafts, look at how few players round 3-7 make the NHL. Then look at how many of them have any sort of meaningful career. Then look at the forwards we've drafted and signed and you'll see that they've had the careers we could have reasonably expected of them.

2014 NHL draft. We take Amadio with the last pick of the 3rd round. Nobody here is going to call him a development success right? Yet the only players with more NHL games played than him from that 3rd round are Point, who only played 9 AHL games so is clearly a scouting success rather than a development success, and Foegele who did play a full AHL season. I'd say our development staff did a pretty good job getting 173 NHL games out of Amadio in that context. We had 2 2nd round picks that year, took McKeown and Lintuniemi. 10 combined NHL games for those two defensemen.

 

[bland]

How does that compare to other teams around the league? Are we having success finding defenseman in rounds 3-7 at a higher rate than other teams? Are we better at scouting them? How many defensemen have we drafted compared to other teams around the league? Do our defensemen spend more time in the minors than other teams? Do we take more European or College players than other teams? What is the success rate of a mid-late round defenseman contributing in the NHL league wide?

Look at the actual drafts, look at how few players round 3-7 make the NHL. Then look at how many of them have any sort of meaningful career. Then look at the forwards we've drafted and signed and you'll see that they've had the careers we could have reasonably expected of them.

2014 NHL draft. We take Amadio with the last pick of the 3rd round. Nobody here is going to call him a development success right? Yet the only players with more NHL games played than him from that 3rd round are Point, who only played 9 AHL games so is clearly a scouting success rather than a development success, and Foegele who did play a full AHL season. I'd say our development staff did a pretty good job getting 173 NHL games out of Amadio in that context. We had 2 2nd round picks that year, took McKeown and Lintuniemi. 10 combined NHL games for those two defensemen.

Showing up is just nowhere near as important as contributing. Amadio failed in his chances here, and he had several of them because there was just nobody else ready to get their chance at that time. That is how barren the cupboard was then. Once Vilardi was physically ready, and Lizotte earned his spot out of camp, he was out of contention.

 

[Docgonzo]

Devils advocate is also Tampa can’t develop defense outside of Hedman to save them. Had to trade for Sergachev and Cernak.

They could’ve drafted Jones instead of Drouin. Hedman/Jones in the D corps sounds nice. Botched Koekkeok. Only decent D they’ve drafted is Cal Foote.

It happens, no teams are perfect. And if they are it’s usually for a short while then crash down.