2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

[sandviper]

Based on current forecasts or your own rankings, where do you see Dellandrea falling?

I have him at 20, i see him going top 31.

Yup, I see him around #20. I’ll go ahead and make a bold prediction... Dellandrea is drafted before Veleno.

For the record... my ranking and not necessarily the pick #
17. Ty Dellandrea (79)
26. Joseph Veleno (68)

 

[Runner77]

You also can't allow your organization to fall into utter disrepair at multiple positions like we have. We're good at Wing and RD. That's it, and even then are we really ''set'' at those positions? We have good wingers, but not a single elite one. We have an elite defenseman, but he'll be 33 and recently recovered from foot surgery to start next season.

Needs drafting gets a bum rap, IMO. I don't know why our club isn't used as an example of why and how ''BPA'' drafting can go horribly wrong. There's just an underlying assumption that you know who the BPA actually is, when at best you have an estimate.

That's a whole other argument as you're referring to an organization that is grossly mismanaged and doesn't feature the best amateur scouting and development contingents. Your GM is not only incapable of amassing excess talent depth, he hasn't shown an ability to maximize its return consistently.

I'd much rather not shortchange the talent at the point of acquisition and put myself in a position of maximizing its return on the trade front, as talent always has a taker.

 

[Runner77]

Holy ****, you have more likes then I have posts

Well deserved of course

Great post btw, spot on as always

Thanks, you're too kind. I value other posters' contributions a lot more than my own. Good to be reading you more regularly.

I particularly enjoy this thread where posters tend to be a lot more analytical and cerebral.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Based on current forecasts or your own rankings, where do you see Dellandrea falling?

I think he is the 2nd best center (ahead of Veleno, Thomas, Olofsson) of the draft. I think he will be drafted in the latest portion of the 1st (between 20 and 31).

I value him as a solid 2nd line center in the NHL.

 

[NotProkofievian]

That's a whole other argument as you're referring to an organization that is grossly mismanaged and doesn't feature the best amateur scouting and development contingents. Your GM is not only incapable of amassing excess talent depth, he hasn't shown an ability to maximize its return consistently.

I'd much rather not shortchange the talent at the point of acquisition and put myself in a position of maximizing its return on the trade front, as talent always has a taker.

Sure, potentially at a discount though. It's often said that one doesn't draft for needs because ones needs change. Well, our needs, at least one of them, hasn't changed in 25 years. I can't tell you how many times I've been told that we'll just draft BPA, and trade to solve this problem. It hasn't worked. In fact, Bergevin even said ''centers aren't available. you have to draft them.'' Well, get drafting then.

Our GM is indeed incapable of amassing, well, anything except bottom 6ers. He doesn't amass. He swaps one for one, or picks up quarters for dimes. Insofar as the picks we've gained (I think he will have gained an extra 2 top 62 picks over the last 5 years), though, I think we need to start ''succession planning'' within the entire organization. We should plan to have our players become obsolete, and have replacements internally at every position. I don't think this whole draft wingers and goaltenders and pretend like the center problem isn't a problem strategy is working out.

 

[The Great Weal]

@Mathletic said something interesting last year pertaining to the BPA vs need argument. Before you can make a BPA ranking, you should be able to rank the best players by position. It's not so much that you get into trouble when selecting for need. It's that you picked a player that just wasn't any good. With that being said, let's rank the top 10 centers for this year's draft. Tomorrow we can do LD.

Kotkaniemi
Lundeström
Kupari
Dellandrea
Gustafsson
Veleno
Hayton
Olofsson
McLeod
Morozov

Very similar ranking to mine.

 

[Mrb1p]

@Mathletic said something interesting last year pertaining to the BPA vs need argument. Before you can make a BPA ranking, you should be able to rank the best players by position. It's not so much that you get into trouble when selecting for need. It's that you picked a player that just wasn't any good. With that being said, let's rank the top 10 centers for this year's draft. Tomorrow we can do LD.

Kotkaniemi
Lundeström
Kupari
Dellandrea
Gustafsson
Veleno
Hayton
Olofsson
McLeod
Morozov

Youre missing a lot of centers. Thomas, Wise, Hillis.... how do you rank Berggren, Fonstad, Jenkins, etc. Its a tough list to make.

 

[Runner77]

Sure, potentially at a discount though. It's often said that one doesn't draft for needs because ones needs change. Well, our needs, at least one of them, hasn't changed in 25 years. I can't tell you how many times I've been told that we'll just draft BPA, and trade to solve this problem. It hasn't worked. In fact, Bergevin even said ''centers aren't available. you have to draft them.'' Well, get drafting then.

Our GM is indeed incapable of amassing, well, anything except bottom 6ers. He doesn't amass. He swaps one for one, or picks up quarters for dimes. Insofar as the picks we've gained (I think he will have gained an extra 2 top 62 picks over the last 5 years), though, I think we need to start ''succession planning'' within the entire organization. We should plan to have our players become obsolete, and have replacements internally at every position. I don't think this whole draft wingers and goaltenders and pretend like the center problem isn't a problem strategy is working out.

There is a distinction to be made as to why it hasn't worked. While several other GMs made moves for top 6C, Bergevin was unable, unwilling or incapable of pulling the trigger on any of them. For a GM to be able to make a needs-based move at the opportune time, there needs to be quality disposable organizational depth. If you don't have it or you're not creative enough in converting redundant assets or your scouting is deficient, you're constantly working at a disadvantage. I don't like the idea of reaching for a player on account of needs if you're giving up too much in terms of talent -- especially when early picks are involved, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Youre missing a lot of centers. Thomas, Wise, Hillis.... how do you rank Berggren, Fonstad, Jenkins, etc. Its a tough list to make.

Berggren and Fonstad are wingers, IIRC. Jenkins is a good one. Drury is another. This wild card O'Brien potentially, as well.

It's kinda why I'm posing the question to this thread. Difficult task. It sort of raises the question: if we can't even rank the positions in order, what good are the mixed rankings?

 

[Mrb1p]

Berggren and Fonstad are wingers, IIRC. Jenkins is a good one. Drury is another. This wild card O'Brien potentially, as well.

It's kinda why I'm posing the question to this thread. Difficult task. It sort of raises the question: if we can't even rank the positions in order, what good are the mixed rankings?

Fonstad played wing this year, but he was exclusively a center before that, same for Jenkins, Berggren and Kotkaniemi.

Hayton too.

 

[NotProkofievian]

There is a distinction to be made as to why it hasn't worked. While several other GMs made moves for top 6C, Bergevin was unable, unwilling or incapable of pulling the trigger on any of them. For a GM to be able to make a needs-based move at the opportune time, there needs to be quality disposable organizational depth. If you don't have it or you're not creative enough in converting redundant assets or your scouting is deficient, you're constantly working at a disadvantage. I don't like the idea of reaching for a player on account of needs if you're giving up too much in terms of talent -- especially when early picks are involved, but maybe I'm wrong.

I'm not saying ''reach'' for players, either. The bolded is key. If you want to make moves for top end players at positions for which you haven't drafted, you need disposable depth at other positions. But, to build a championship club, you will need to make moves for championship calibre players. Being that you'd like to trade from the bottom of your depth (as much as possible) to acquire these players, this strategy rather implies moving a lot of pieces for one piece. This is clearly not a sustainable strategy to address organization wide deficiencies, like our center problem. We likely don't have the assets to trade for a championship calibre center lineup. We'd just be a lottery team with good centers.

Another thing is that you never know who really is BPA, you just have estimates. Being that there are roughly twice as many wingers as centers, what is the likelihood that you would even recognize that a center was the best player available, even if it were true?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Fonstad played wing this year, but he was exclusively a center before that, same for Jenkins, Berggren and Kotkaniemi.

Barry and the Fonz are smål tho.

Rank dem centers.

 

[Mrb1p]

Barry and the Fonz are smål tho.

Rank dem centers.

I do not care about size its been proven time and time again that nobody with a brain cares about it.

Ill be honest, i was ranking dem centers and got to 30 and i closed the page, so yeah, im mad af.

 

[Runner77]

I'm not saying ''reach'' for players, either. The bolded is key. If you want to make moves for top end players at positions for which you haven't drafted, you need disposable depth at other positions. But, to build a championship club, you will need to make moves for championship calibre players. Being that you'd like to trade from the bottom of your depth (as much as possible) to acquire these players, this strategy rather implies moving a lot of pieces for one piece. This is clearly not a sustainable strategy to address organization wide deficiencies, like our center problem. We likely don't have the assets to trade for a championship calibre center lineup. We'd just be a lottery team with good centers.

Another thing is that you never know who really is BPA, you just have estimates. Being that there are roughly twice as many wingers as centers, what is the likelihood that you would even recognize that a center was the best player available, even if it were true?

If you're not reaching for the position player, then we have no argument. It presupposes that the players are close enough in terms of talent.

I also agree that the draft is fraught with risk and uncertainty. We're projecting players who are 17-18, where so many aspects can eventually be proven wrong. However, it's not about getting it 100% right but calculating and managing risks -- and some scouting staffs have a better record at this than the Habs do. There is no excuse not to have attracted some of those better scouts to the Habs' org. over a 6 year span.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Guys, since BPA is the most important thing, and need should never be considered, I thought I'd lay this mock draft down for your approval.

3.) Noah Dobson
35.) Ryan Merkley
38.) Calen Addison
56.) Jacob Bernard-Docker
57.) Filip Johansson
66.) Axel Andersson
97.) Alec Regula
102.) Ty Emberson

 

[Mrb1p]

Guys, since BPA is the most important thing, and need should never be considered, I thought I'd lay this mock draft down for your approval.

3.) Noah Dobson
35.) Ryan Merkley
38.) Calen Addison
56.) Jacob Bernard-Docker
57.) Filip Johansson
66.) Axel Andersson
97.) Alec Regula
102.) Ty Emberson

Dobson is not BPA at 3, no way.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Dobson is not BPA at 3, no way.

Yes he is, he's Prime Pronger 2.0: this time, he can skate!

 

[Mrb1p]

Yes he is, he's Prime Pronger 2.0: this time, he can skate!

So, basically he can skate but what else does he do?

I stated a few times that hes probably the best player in the draft to gain the zone, hes really great at it, bambi legs and long stick and all. Its the rest of his play that seems unimpressive.

 

[NotProkofievian]

So, basically he can skate but what else does he do?

I stated a few times that hes probably the best player in the draft to gain the zone, hes really great at it, bambi legs and long stick and all. Its the rest of his play that seems unimpressive.

Literally wat?

He's a fantastic all around player. He's great defensively, and on the powerplay he actually has some imagination, and both his wrist shot and slap shot are threats to score.

@TT1 get in here, MrB is talking shit about your boy.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Guys, since BPA is the most important thing, and need should never be considered, I thought I'd lay this mock draft down for your approval.

3.) Noah Dobson
35.) Ryan Merkley
38.) Calen Addison
56.) Jacob Bernard-Docker
57.) Filip Johansson
66.) Axel Andersson
97.) Alec Regula
102.) Ty Emberson

I'm cool with picks 3, 56, 57, and 66 tho

 

[NotProkofievian]

I'm cool with picks 3, 56, 57, and 66 tho

Like, if you told me we got any one of those guys at any one of those ranks (except for Merkley, f*** that guy), I'd be stoked. But 8 RD would probably make me jump off a bridge. Here in holland, this would not be lethal, and I would regret doing it immediately.

 

[Mrb1p]

Literally wat?

He's a fantastic all around player. He's great defensively, and on the powerplay he actually has some imagination, and both his wrist shot and slap shot are threats to score.

@TT1 get in here, MrB is talking **** about your boy.

Yeah, hes a guy that does it all. His shots are fine but hes not going to score 10 plus a year, is his passing game good enough for 40+ a year?

 

[The Great Weal]

I'm cool with picks 3, 56, 57, and 66 tho

Is Tkachuk the only guy you aren't cool with at 3?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Is Tkachuk the only guy you aren't cool with at 3?

Yeah. It's anyone but Tkachuk for me. Literally everything I've seen and everything that's said about him is everything I've seen or heard about Lawson Crouse and other garbage.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Yeah, hes a guy that does it all. His shots are fine but hes not going to score 10 plus a year, is his passing game good enough for 40+ a year?

I think he'll score 10+ per year. He's pretty sneaky for a big guy and he has a variety of shooting options. I don't know about 40 assists per year, but he seems like a pretty safe guy to play 25 minutes per night some day.

It's a little strange to me that the only defenceman that anyone takes for the habs is Boqvist. Wai tho. He's the riskiest of the elite crop of RD.