2018-19 Roster talk; Part two

[Jtown]

Leier is not better than Weal. Leier is a 13th/14th forward at best.

but weal is not a pker. What this team needs more than the slight improvement on offense that weal would be over leier is an elite pk forward. Leier has the athleticism and skating ability to cover a lot of ice, that does not mean he can be a great pk forward but he has important tools that would help.

 

[Adtar02]

Leier is not better than Weal. Leier is a 13th/14th forward at best.

While mor skilled for the role I don’t think he fits. This team doesn’t try for skill on the forth line. They want responsible defense first scoring last

 

[FLYguy3911]

but weal is not a pker. What this team needs more than the slight improvement on offense that weal would be over leier is an elite pk forward. Leier has the athleticism and skating ability to cover a lot of ice, that does not mean he can be a great pk forward but he has important tools that would help.

That doesn't make much sense. Weal doesn't PK. That doesn't mean he couldn't be as good (or as bad) as Leier if given the opportunity. A forward PKing can only impact play so much so terms like "elite" don't mean much here. He's not even a center who could potentially give you a faceoff boost.

The best PKers tend to be the guys who are just good players in general. There really aren't guys that thrive as PKers and suck in every other facet of hockey.

And you're also talking about valuing 2 minutes a game in a very specific role more than 10-15 minutes at ES. That will hurt you in the long run.

While mor skilled for the role I don’t think he fits. This team doesn’t try for skill on the forth line. They want responsible defense first scoring last

Weal? Weal is absolutely one of the best 12 forwards on the team. If he's on your 4th line, that's a pretty solid roster. I agree with you about what they want on their 4th line, but that's just not what wins games. If you have 4th liners who are complete zeros offensively (76+78) you're just not finding value at the margins. Yeah the 4th line is the 4th line for a reason, but that doesn't mean you can't have "skill guys" filling out the bottom of the roster. Every little bit of offense matters. I would bet Martel would be a fairly decent (and cheap) 4th line option, but he's not going to get a chance.

 

[Jtown]

That doesn't make much sense. Weal doesn't PK. That doesn't mean he couldn't be as good (or as bad) as Leier if given the opportunity. A forward PKing can only impact play so much so terms like "elite" don't mean much here. He's not even a center who could potentially give you a faceoff boost.

The best PKers tend to be the guys who are just good players in general. There really aren't guys that thrive as PKers and suck in every other facet of hockey.

And you're also talking about valuing 2 minutes a game in a very specific role more than 10-15 minutes at ES. That will hurt you in the long run.


Weal? Weal is absolutely one of the best 12 forwards on the team. If he's on your 4th line, that's a pretty solid roster. I agree with you about what they want on their 4th line, but that's just not what wins games. If you have 4th liners who are complete zeros offensively you're just not finding value at the margins. Yeah the 4th line is the 4th line for a reason, but that doesn't mean you can't have "skill guys" filling out the bottom of the roster. Every little bit of offense matters. I would bet Martel would be a fairly decent (and cheap) 4th line option, but he's not going to get a chance.

who are the best penalty killers? That is a highly variable thing from year to year.

https://thehockeywriters.com/the-nhls-best-penalty-killers/

according to this article brooks orpik is one of the best penalty killers in hockey . But according to you he sucks at hockey. Which one is it?

If you look at the forwards mentioned you will see that one skill set really stands out and that is skating ability. Trochek, smith, frolik are all plus plus skaters.

We only have one winger on our 4th line that meets that description and that is Leier. You're right i wish he was a center and better at faceoffs but that is something we will have to live with. Weal is a great winger when he is put ina scoring role. The problem for him is that all of our scoring roles have gone to significantly more talented players. If his role on this team is not scoring what is it? Hockey is not played in a vacuum. It is situational, and it has a variety of roles needed to be successful.

All we want from our forth line is a line that has 3 penalty killers, can chip in with a few goals and be able to take a faceoff in the dzone without pulling a gudas.

 

[FLYguy3911]

who are the best penalty killers? That is a highly variable thing from year to year.

https://thehockeywriters.com/the-nhls-best-penalty-killers/

according to this article brooks orpik is one of the best penalty killers in hockey . But according to you he sucks at hockey. Which one is it?

Well Corsi and xG aren't always the best measure of PK success/performance. The Flyers generally grade out well there each year, but they are always at the bottom in actual PK% and GA/60. There is also sample size to consider. That article is also almost 2 years old. Orpik last season was last in CA/60, FA/60, SOG/60, and xGA/60...among Caps regular defensemen.

There is also QoC to consider. If you are PKing against Giroux and Co., it's going to be a long night. Provorov and PP2? A lot easier.

If you look at the forwards mentioned you will see that one skill set really stands out and that is skating ability. Trochek, smith, frolik are all plus plus skaters.

We only have one winger on our 4th line that meets that description and that is Leier. You're right i wish he was a center and better at faceoffs but that is something we will have to live with. Weal is a great winger when he is put ina scoring role. The problem for him is that all of our scoring roles have gone to significantly more talented players. If his role on this team is not scoring what is it? Hockey is not played in a vacuum. It is situational, and it has a variety of roles needed to be successful.

All we want from our forth line is a line that has 3 penalty killers, can chip in with a few goals and be able to take a faceoff in the dzone without pulling a gudas.

Speak for yourself. I want a 4th line that can push the play forward. I don't want my 4th line taking a lot of DZ draws. They are the 4th line for a reason. They aren't as good as the 9 other forwards. They don't have to PK, but it's a bonus if they can.

Yes you need to be able to skate. That applies to most aspects of hockey. If you just want a skater, throw Martel out there. He's a better skater than Leier. It takes more than being a good skater to be a good PKer.

All of the scoring roles are gone? There are limits to scoring roles? The game doesn't suddenly change when the 4th line steps on to the ice, even if coaches try their damndest with their deployment of players. The object is the same- score more than you give up. There are a lot of ways to get there.

Soon the Flyers are going to have the potential to wear teams down with their depth. They are going to have solid, cheap, talented guys coming out of their ears pretty soon. They are going to have 2nd/3rd line caliber forwards playing on the 4th line. Guys like Laczynski, Allison, Ratcliffe, etc. That's going to be a serious advantage. Now imagine telling them not to worry about scoring goals! Not smart.

 

[Jtown]

Well Corsi and xG aren't always the best measure of PK success/performance. The Flyers generally grade out well there each year, but they are always at the bottom in actual PK% and GA/60. There is also sample size to consider. That article is also almost 2 years old. Orpik last season was last in CA/60, FA/60, SOG/60, and xGA/60...among Caps regular defensemen.

There is also QoC to consider. If you are PKing against Giroux and Co., it's going to be a long night. Provorov and PP2? A lot easier.


Speak for yourself. I want a 4th line that can push the play forward. I don't want my 4th line taking a lot of DZ draws. They are the 4th line for a reason. They aren't as good as the 9 other forwards. They don't have to PK, but it's a bonus if they can.

Yes you need to be able to skate. That applies to most aspects of hockey. If you just want a skater, throw Martel out there. He's a better skater than Leier. It takes more than being a good skater to be a good PKer.

All of the scoring roles are gone? There are limits to scoring roles? The game doesn't suddenly change when the 4th line steps on to the ice, even if coaches try their damndest with their deployment of players. The object is the same- score more than you give up. There are a lot of ways to get there.

Soon the Flyers are going to have the potential to wear teams down with their depth. They are going to have solid, cheap, talented guys coming out of their ears pretty soon. They are going to have 2nd/3rd line caliber forwards playing on the 4th line. Guys like Laczynski, Allison, Ratcliffe, etc. That's going to be a serious advantage. Now imagine telling them not to worry about scoring goals! Not smart.

the objective is always to score. Let's get that straight. However Scoring in the nhl is very hard and you sometimes need optimal situations to enhance your scoring capabilities. Being out of a ozone faceoff, playing pp, centering claude giroux and travis Konecny. ALl these things can really increase scoring output. And for these special situation , i want to make sure that only my most talented players get those roles. You do understand why i never want to see a line of Laughton, leier, and Nak take a faceoff in the ozone right? It's not because i don't want them to score, it's because they are displacing more talented players in that role. I want Coots line, or Patrick's line taking that faceoff, not our 4th line. HENCE why scoring opportunities for the 4th line players are diminished immensely.

If we made Alex Ovechkin a 4th line player being centered by Jay Beagle, getting 10 minutes a game, and no pp time how do you think he will do? Even an all time Great Like Ovi needs to be put in advantageous situations in order to be successful.

Look at the vegas players. All those guys went from never having scoring roles, to finally be put in roles to score and they flourished. Lets save those opportunities for the claude giroux's and the nolan patricks not for the weals and leiers.

I will go to my grave as saying adam hall was one of my favorite 4th line centers in recent history. Great at Faceoffs, great at pking, and was willing to fight and stick up for teammates. That is what you want from your 4th line. You want them to play the hard minutes so your stars don't have to.

 

[deadhead]

The third and fourth lines aren't going to get the same ES minutes as the top two lines, but if they can PK, they save the legs of the top six forwards for scoring situations. Since the top six guys score at a higher rate, you want them to get the bulk of PP and ES minutes, and the bottom six, especially the fourth line, to get the PK and checking the other team's top line minutes.

Leier is an awful PK forward.

VdV on the other hand was pretty good, good enough to justify playing him 8-10 minutes a night over other mediocre forwards because he brought more value on the PK. If two players are similar at ES, but one is better on the PK, the PK guy should dress.

Simmonds - Raffl
Lindblom - NAK
Laughton - Couts/Patrick (unless we sign or develop a 3C who can PK)

Weal shouldn't be on the PK, neither should Ghost.
Sanheim has to show he's physical enough, and Hagg has to show improvement in puck handling and passing out of the zone.

 

[FLYguy3911]

the objective is always to score. Let's get that straight. However Scoring in the nhl is very hard and you sometimes need optimal situations to enhance your scoring capabilities. Being out of a ozone faceoff, playing pp, centering claude giroux and travis Konecny. ALl these things can really increase scoring output. And for these special situation , i want to make sure that only my most talented players get those roles. You do understand why i never want to see a line of Laughton, leier, and Nak take a faceoff in the ozone right? It's not because i don't want them to score, it's because they are displacing more talented players in that role. I want Coots line, or Patrick's line taking that faceoff, not our 4th line. HENCE why scoring opportunities for the 4th line players are diminished immensely.

You're putting too much stock into zone starts. They matter, but starting in the defensive zone doesn't mean you can't score (ask Giroux and Coots) and starting in the OZ doesn't mean you're going to score a lot (ask Dale Weise).

And the large majority of shifts happen on the fly.

If we made Alex Ovechkin a 4th line player being centered by Jay Beagle, getting 10 minutes a game, and no pp time how do you think he will do? Even an all time Great Like Ovi needs to be put in advantageous situations in order to be successful.

Look at the vegas players. All those guys went from never having scoring roles, to finally be put in roles to score and they flourished. Lets save those opportunities for the claude giroux's and the nolan patricks not for the weals and leiers.

Dude what? Giroux and Patrick will still get their opportunities.

I'm not arguing that a 4th liner will produce like a top 6er. Of course playing more minutes and with better teammates helps scoring. I'm saying when constructing a lineup, your philosophy should NOT change in terms of what you are looking for in players in the "top 6" and "bottom 6". A 4th liner does not have to be a "grinder" or defensive specialist. He can be "skilled" and lean towards the offensive side.

I will go to my grave as saying adam hall was one of my favorite 4th line centers in recent history. Great at Faceoffs, great at pking, and was willing to fight and stick up for teammates. That is what you want from your 4th line. You want them to play the hard minutes so your stars don't have to.

This explains a lot. You loved a guy with a GF% of 37.73.

That is NOT what you want on your 4th line no matter what intangibles he may or may not have.

 

[Curufinwe]

The problem with Leier is that he wasn't good on the PK last year. Worse than even Flip and Lehtera.

 

[deadhead]

I'm not arguing that a 4th liner will produce like a top 6er. Of course playing more minutes and with better teammates helps scoring. I'm saying when constructing a lineup, your philosophy should NOT change in terms of what you are looking for in players in the "top 6" and "bottom 6". A 4th liner does not have to be a "grinder" or defensive specialist. He can be "skilled" and lean towards the offensive side.

It's not playing more minutes that make top six guys productive, it's being more productive that results in them playing more minutes.

It would be nice to have 12 guys who can score, and we might be there in a couple years, but even then someone has to do the dirty work, you don't want offense first players on the bottom six who can't contribute in other ways, they're better off playing in the AHL and becoming trade bait if they can't round out their game.

This doesn't mean you want slugs, but if your choices are Lehtera/Weise/Read/Leier, dress the one(s) who can PK because none can score.
Odds are you might get 30 ES goals from your 3rd line and 15-20 ES goals from your 4th line, in that case, a guy who might score 1-2 more goals in that role (limited minutes with limited linemates) isn't worth dressing over the better defensive player who is good on the PK.

The advantage of guys like Farabee, O'Brien, Lindblom, Laughton, ect., will be that they can contribute more than just goal scoring, they'll give you adequate offense but also contribute on defense and PK. This will be the litmus test for players like NAK, Allison, etc. - because there aren't going to be openings on the top two lines for a couple years.

Simple math, 10 ES minutes a night, 80 games, 800 minutes, 13.3 - 60 minutes.
So a guy who scores 0.30 pp/60 more than another player will generate 4 more points over the season (so 1-2 goals).
The difference between a 1.20 v 1.50 pp/60 player is pretty substantial, but in limited usage has limited impact.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I would LOVE to plan for Frost or Voroybov on the 3rd line. I would LOVE to plan for Myers in the top 6 on D.

But I'm choosing to live in the world of the conservative and more likely. Lehtera will be the 3C and Brennan or Wilcox will be residing in the pressbox while Folin is in at Defense.

Frost will be in the OHL again.

If I seriously thought of an avenue that this wouldn't be the way, I'd be with you guys. I just saw Hakstol rely on the vets a lot and I fully expect him to do it again. If MacDonald was gone for the year, I think he'd give Myers a true shot, but he knows MacDonald will be back half way through October most likely and if Myers had 10 pts in 4 games, he's putting his #1 Dman in regardless of anybody else. And we shouldn't forget that Lehtera was his go to forward to close out games (usually failed) but that didn't stop him.

 

[Curufinwe]

Lehtera didn't play as the 3C all last season, so why do people think he's in line for a promotion? He was a wing who averaged 9:13 at ES. With only one year left on his deal I think there's more chance he gets the Matt Read treatment.

 

[Adtar02]

That doesn't make much sense. Weal doesn't PK. That doesn't mean he couldn't be as good (or as bad) as Leier if given the opportunity. A forward PKing can only impact play so much so terms like "elite" don't mean much here. He's not even a center who could potentially give you a faceoff boost.

The best PKers tend to be the guys who are just good players in general. There really aren't guys that thrive as PKers and suck in every other facet of hockey.

And you're also talking about valuing 2 minutes a game in a very specific role more than 10-15 minutes at ES. That will hurt you in the long run.


Weal? Weal is absolutely one of the best 12 forwards on the team. If he's on your 4th line, that's a pretty solid roster. I agree with you about what they want on their 4th line, but that's just not what wins games. If you have 4th liners who are complete zeros offensively (76+78) you're just not finding value at the margins. Yeah the 4th line is the 4th line for a reason, but that doesn't mean you can't have "skill guys" filling out the bottom of the roster. Every little bit of offense matters. I would bet Martel would be a fairly decent (and cheap) 4th line option, but he's not going to get a chance.

Vary much agree just looking at the 4th line and how its been used by Hak. Not saying he shouldnt be there but more likely wont do to style of Coach if that makes sense??

 

[deadhead]

The difference between a good and below average PK guy can be 2-3 goals per 60 minutes, figure 1.5 minutes per game or 120 minutes per season, 2 - 60 minute periods, so 4-6 goals over a season. As I showed above, the difference at ES might be 1-2 goals.

So when you get to the bottom six, and especially the 4th line, good PK play is more valuable than an upgrade on offense.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

So I'm getting antsy for the season like most of you and I was thinking about what the Simmer situation looks like now compared to what it will look like later. I saw that Rick Nash is still a UFA. If they could trade Simmer for just futures and sign Nash to a one year deal I think it would be a good move organizationally. Nash replaces Simmer's goal output and we build up our prospect depth. Next year someone like Frost or Ratcliffe or the Frizbee can step into Nash's role. I don't know just spitballing here.

And by role I mean his output, not his position in the lineup.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Lehtera didn't play as the 3C all last season, so why do people think he's in line for a promotion? He was a wing who averaged 9:13 at ES. With only one year left on his deal I think there's more chance he gets the Matt Read treatment.

I have zero faith in the coach making the right decision here.

 

[hatcher]

Simple cut Leier and Weal and were good to go. Both very useless for 3rd or 4th line role.

 

[tictactoe]

Giroux, Couturier, Patrick, vorobyev at center... Frost makes the team on LW like Gagne did at that age. Hopefully Myers gets better. Vorobyev raffl Laughton on 4th line. What I would like to see... Obviously, Morin comes around when he is nice and ready.

 

[Rebels57]

So I'm getting antsy for the season like most of you and I was thinking about what the Simmer situation looks like now compared to what it will look like later. I saw that Rick Nash is still a UFA. If they could trade Simmer for just futures and sign Nash to a one year deal I think it would be a good move organizationally. Nash replaces Simmer's goal output and we build up our prospect depth. Next year someone like Frost or Ratcliffe or the Frizbee can step into Nash's role. I don't know just spitballing here.

And by role I mean his output, not his position in the lineup.

Nash is contemplating retirement. He's not really "on the market."

 

[deadhead]

Frost is a center, period, looked like crap at LW this summer.
Gagne was a center in juniors and played center as a rookie before moving to LW.
He was also 6'1 195.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Nash is contemplating retirement. He's not really "on the market."

Well assuming he was looking gora one year deal I may kick the tires. But if the Carl's Jr. trade is any indication of the market I would never trade anyone ever again.

 

[tictactoe]

He looked like crap this summer? you mean he played how many games on LW this summer?
Gagne was not 195 at 19...

and if Frost is ok as center even better....

 

[David St Hubbins]

Folin should never be in the top 4.

What about alphabetically?

 

[deadhead]

He looked like crap this summer? you mean he played how many games on LW this summer?
Gagne was not 195 at 19...

and if Frost is ok as center even better....

Frost makes more sense at center because he can use his speed and his vision there and doesn't have to chase the puck into corners, we can get away with Giroux at LW with Couts at center, but no sure anyone else can cover for his lack of size at wing - plus he's not a dynamic scorer like TK, he's more of a playmaker and that works better in most cases at center.

 

[tictactoe]

Frost makes more sense at center because he can use his speed and his vision there and doesn't have to chase the puck into corners, we can get away with Giroux at LW with Couts at center, but no sure anyone else can cover for his lack of size at wing - plus he's not a dynamic scorer like TK, he's more of a playmaker and that works better in most cases at center.

You are betting that Frost is NHL ready. I hope he is but even Hextall does not know that. Frost can also get killed in that corner because he is young smaller and inexperienced. By the way who is playing 4th line center?