2018-19 Roster talk; Part two

[deadhead]

I said ES, Lehtera was solid on the PK in the playoffs, remember, Pittsburgh had the #1 power play in the league.

Lehtera, 14.52, 1 GA, 0.52 xGA, 4.13 GA/60, 2.15 xGA/60
Filppula 16.05, 3 GA, 1.09 xGA, 11.21 GA/60, 4.07 xGA/60
Read 23.32, 2 GA, 2.21 xGA, 5.15 GA/60, 5.67 xGA/60
Couts 21.90, 1 GA, 1.87 xGA, 2.74 GA/60, 5.12 xGA/60

Couts and Lehtera were our best PK guys, and played better in the playoffs than anyone did in the regular season.
Now if we just had a goalie . . .

 

[ajgoal]

That's an intellectually dishonest argument. The fact was that Lehtera and Filppula's results in the regular season, over a much larger sample size, did not merit their usage as PKers in the postseason. ergo, had Hakstol used the data in front of him prior to the start of the playoffs, he should not have put Lehtera on the PK at all, if, in fact, he was going on merit, as you asserted in your previous post.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

That's an intellectually dishonest argument. The fact was that Lehtera and Filppula's results in the regular season, over a much larger sample size, did not merit their usage as PKers in the postseason. ergo, had Hakstol used the data in front of him prior to the start of the playoffs, he should not have put Lehtera on the PK at all, if, in fact, he was going on merit, as you asserted in your previous post.

How is it “intellectually dishonest” to cite stats about their playoff performance?

Yeesh.

 

[ajgoal]

How is it “intellectually dishonest” to cite stats about their playoff performance?

Yeesh.

It's intellectually dishonest to cite results as an argument for the process.

IE: If I take a kitten and entice it to cross a busy street 40 times, and the kitten gets hit by a car and killed each time, then on the 41st time it makes it across safely, it doesn't mean that the previous evidence I had supported that result. By all rights, my previous evidence indicated that that kitten would suffer the same fate.

The argument was made that nobody outplayed Lehtera. I pointed out that in fact, he was outplayed, in particular on the PK during the regular season, but he got significantly more PK time in the postseason than three particular individuals who previously outplayed him. Citing the results does not validate the process or the assertion that he was not outplayed, as before the postseason started there were no postseason results to cite to come to the conclusion that he would do well in that role. ie, the citation of those particular facts was intellectually dishonest in this context.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

IE: If I take a kitten and entice it to cross a busy street 40 times, and the kitten gets hit by a car and killed each time, then on the 41st time it makes it across safely, it doesn't mean that the previous evidence I had supported that result. By all rights, my previous evidence indicated that that kitten would suffer the same fate.

If someone starts enticing kitties to cross busy roads, I will cut a b***h. Who enticed, was it ****ing Hakstok? It was, right? That ****er****er.

 

[ajgoal]

If someone starts enticing kitties to cross busy roads, I will cut a b***h. Who enticed, was it ****ing Hakstok? It was, right? That ****er****er.

It was PETA

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

It was PETA

Well, I need to cut somebody.

 

[Magua]

If someone starts enticing kitties to cross busy roads, I will cut a b***h. Who enticed, was it ****ing Hakstok? It was, right? That ****er****er.

Probably was. He’s a dog person.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Probably was. He’s a dog person.

That was not one of my finer efforts lol

 

[Magua]

That was not one of my finer efforts lol

The top one making him seem like a normal person? You’re right. Shoddy job.

 

[tictactoe]

Frost isn't a winger

Neither was Gagne... Any center can play wing... it's done every day on any level.

 

[eramosat]

Ah, my aim is achieved

 

[deadhead]

That's an intellectually dishonest argument. The fact was that Lehtera and Filppula's results in the regular season, over a much larger sample size, did not merit their usage as PKers in the postseason. ergo, had Hakstol used the data in front of him prior to the start of the playoffs, he should not have put Lehtera on the PK at all, if, in fact, he was going on merit, as you asserted in your previous post.

"Data" isn't completely trustworthy, since context matters, and left out variable error is ubiquitous.
So data is always going to be merely one input into the decision process.

Obviously they saw something that suggested that the four they put out there against the Pens would work, it could be late season improvement, it could be a matchup of styles that favored the Flyers. But ex post, their judgment was validated.

 

[Jray42]

I assume it’s been posted somewhere but in case it hasn’t:

Bundy is out as the between-the-benches commentator this year


Edit: I see it’s been discussed in the other thread. Carry on.

 

[Striiker]

It's intellectually dishonest to cite results as an argument for the process.

IE: If I take a kitten and entice it to cross a busy street 40 times, and the kitten gets hit by a car and killed each time, then on the 41st time it makes it across safely, it doesn't mean that the previous evidence I had supported that result. By all rights, my previous evidence indicated that that kitten would suffer the same fate.

The argument was made that nobody outplayed Lehtera. I pointed out that in fact, he was outplayed, in particular on the PK during the regular season, but he got significantly more PK time in the postseason than three particular individuals who previously outplayed him. Citing the results does not validate the process or the assertion that he was not outplayed, as before the postseason started there were no postseason results to cite to come to the conclusion that he would do well in that role. ie, the citation of those particular facts was intellectually dishonest in this context.

Yeah, multiple people have tried to explain this concept.

Non-harmful results don’t justify bad decisions when those bad decisions will eventually bite you in the ass.

Just like driving drunk isn’t suddenly acceptable if you make it home OK once.

 

[ajgoal]

Obviously they saw something that suggested that the four they put out there against the Pens would work, it could be late season improvement, it could be a matchup of styles that favored the Flyers. But ex post, their judgment was validated.

Causal fallacy (there we go! too tired tonight) and appeal to authority. Just because they did something does not by necessity indicate that they saw what you claim they did. While that is certainly a possibility, given that they used those same 4 forwards primarily for the last 15 games of the season, it's much more likely to be merely a continuation of what they were doing during that period which happened to work out. And their personnel usage during those final 15 games almost certainly did not have anything to do with how the forward selections matched up against the Penguins for an as-yet-to-be-determined playoff series.

 

[Tripod]

They saw something that also took TK off the top line for no apparent reason, and that decision failed miserably in the playoffs.

So if you give him credit for 1 move, give him hell for the other.

Crap...derailed again. May all the roster moves he makes this year be fruitful.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Neither was Gagne... Any center can play wing... it's done every day on any level.

Frost has had limited success on the wing. Why take the guy who has great center attributes and move him to the wing, when we clearly aren't in desperate need of winger help? Idiotic to say the least.

 

[deadhead]

He tried the same move with TK as he did with Couts, didn't work with TK, worked spectacularly with Couts.
Basically, he saw the first line was being shutdown and tried to jury rig a 3rd line that might win a matchup and actually score.

 

[Striiker]

>can’t score
>doesn’t even try best line of the year, which carried them to the playoffs

Quality coaching.

 

[tictactoe]

Frost has had limited success on the wing. Why take the guy who has great center attributes and move him to the wing, when we clearly aren't in desperate need of winger help? Idiotic to say the least.

you may wanna read the thread before commenting on a single post... seems idiotic to me...

 

[Appleyard]

He tried the same move with TK as he did with Couts, didn't work with TK, worked spectacularly with Couts.
Basically, he saw the first line was being shutdown and tried to jury rig a 3rd line that might win a matchup and actually score.

Tbf he did it before the play-offs started... in the previous 10 games before being pulled from the 1st line:

Giroux: 5g, 10a, 15p
Konecny: 6g, 3a, 9p
Couturier: 1g, 6a, 8p

From then on Konecny played on average less than 15 minutes a night... and while he was ok and the 1st line were too neither looked as dangerous apart.

 

[deadhead]

Of course, last ten games included, Detroit, Rangers (2), Dallas, NYI and Carolina.
They outscored these 6 - 23-19
They outscored the four playoff teams 16-12
Go figure.
In the four games against playoff teams:
Couts 1-2 3
Giroux 3-2 5
TK 1-1 2

 

[Adtar02]

Of course, last ten games included, Detroit, Rangers (2), Dallas, NYI and Carolina.
They outscored these 6 - 23-19
They outscored the four playoff teams 16-12
Go figure.
In the four games against playoff teams:
Couts 1-2 3
Giroux 3-2 5
TK 1-1 2

Not sure your point. Pretty good numbers they put up. Even in the super small sample size.

 

[soo hound girl]

You are betting that Frost is NHL ready. I hope he is but even Hextall does not know that. Frost can also get killed in that corner because he is young smaller and inexperienced. By the way who is playing 4th line center?

Hopefully the flyers don’t put frost on the wing just so he can make the team he is not a winger he would be better off going back to the OHL and dominating and going to the world juniors your only 19 once and to play for team Canada would help his development better than playing as a 4th line winger 4-8 minites a nite