Prospect Info: 2018/19 Marlies & Prospects Thread Part V

[biotk]

Did Liljegren play on the top power play unit this year?

Yes. Despite the what some people repeatedly say on here.

Liljegren played the first 10 games of the season on the PP1. There is zero doubt about this.
Subban and Nielsen split PP2 time over that period of time.

Rosen didn't get PP time over the first 10 games, but with 7 ES points and another one SH, he pushed himself on to the PP starting with game 11. Sandin, who missed the first 8 games of the season started getting PP2 time during game 12 (his 4th) after putting up more ES points in his first 3 games than Liljegren had (in 11 games). Liljegren was injured during the 19th game of the season, but had effectively been moved off the PP after 11 games. Some might say that was so he spend more time concentrating on ES and PK, but both during his first and second year the PP was not very effective with him on it.

When he returned from injury he played on the PP2 when Rosen was injured and then called up to the Leafs (which was a significant chunk of time). 40% of his points came on the PP which is a high percentage but mostly an indicator of how lackluster his ES production was - 9 points in 43 games (only LoVerde was worse in ES PPG)

 

[biotk]

I don't know what to say on Gordeev. The OHL scouts seem to like him, and he skates well for a big guy plus has good puck skills, but the production isn't there at all.
Obviously I wouldn't sign him to an ELC, however maybe an AHL deal.

Lack of production is a major concern (except for one Leafs' D prospect where it doesn't matter at all)

 

[biotk]

Is it just me or does it seem as though almost everyone who puts down Liljegren does so based on offensive numbers? I have never really understood that. He has never put up big offensive numbers anywhere in his career.

Actually he had always put up very impressive offensive numbers. Leafs fans didn't believe that the team should tank for Liljegren in 2016/17 because Liljegren was ok offensively and good defensively. It was because he was outstanding offensively and they figured he could be taught the defensive side of things.

When he was 14 and 15 his numbers were outstanding - hence the reason why he was given 19 games in the SHL when only 16 years of age. When he was 16 he, as a D on Swedish team that was weak offensively led Sweden with 3 goals, 5 points in 6 games in the WHC-17, had 6 points in 7 games in the WJC-18 and also had 22 points in 29 games in the SuperElit (top 5 in PPG among D with the others all being 2 - 3 years older). He also played 19 games in the SHL and while 5 points might not seem like much, as a 16 year old Dahlin only registered 3 points in 26 games.

After turning 17 that summer led Sweden with 4 points in 5 games in the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. Then he was hit with mono and his numbers have never stood out again. That includes not improving his numbers in the SHL during his draft year. Not producing great numbers during his games in the Allsvenskan or SuperElit, missing the WJC-20 and then only producing 2 points in 7 games at the WJC-18 and then in his D+1 only getting 2 points in the WJC-20, along with mediocre numbers in the AHL.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Actually he had always put up very impressive offensive numbers. Leafs fans didn't believe that the team should tank for Liljegren in 2016/17 because Liljegren was ok offensively and good defensively. It was because he was outstanding offensively and they figured he could be taught the defensive side of things.

When he was 14 and 15 his numbers were outstanding - hence the reason why he was given 19 games in the SHL when only 16 years of age. When he was 16 he, as a D on Swedish team that was weak offensively led Sweden with 3 goals, 5 points in 6 games in the WHC-17, had 6 points in 7 games in the WJC-18 and also had 22 points in 29 games in the SuperElit (top 5 in PPG among D with the others all being 2 - 3 years older). He also played 19 games in the SHL and while 5 points might not seem like much, as a 16 year old Dahlin only registered 3 points in 26 games.

After turning 17 that summer led Sweden with 4 points in 5 games in the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. Then he was hit with mono and his numbers have never stood out again. That includes not improving his numbers in the SHL during his draft year. Not producing great numbers during his games in the Allsvenskan or SuperElit, missing the WJC-20 and then only producing 2 points in 7 games at the WJC-18 and then in his D+1 only getting 2 points in the WJC-20, along with mediocre numbers in the AHL.

This is the first season he has scored more than one goal since he was 15. As I said, he's always playing above his level (or age). He's just finishing his second year pro at an age where guys like Subban were still playing junior hockey. Relax. He's doing lots of things well and could very quickly become one of our most competent D at getting the puck out of the zone. I'd take that in a heartbeat over POINTS POINTS POINTS!!!! He's already shown (as you pointed out) that when playing with his age group, he excels.

 

[stickty111]

This is the first season he has scored more than one goal since he was 15. As I said, he's always playing above his level (or age). He's just finishing his second year pro at an age where guys like Subban were still playing junior hockey. Relax. He's doing lots of things well and could very quickly become one of our most competent D at getting the puck out of the zone. I'd take that in a heartbeat over POINTS POINTS POINTS!!!! He's already shown (as you pointed out) that when playing with his age group, he excels.

These are the facts.

 

[biotk]

This is the first season he has scored more than one goal since he was 15. As I said, he's always playing above his level (or age). He's just finishing his second year pro at an age where guys like Subban were still playing junior hockey. Relax. He's doing lots of things well and could very quickly become one of our most competent D at getting the puck out of the zone. I'd take that in a heartbeat over POINTS POINTS POINTS!!!! He's already shown (as you pointed out) that when playing with his age group, he excels.

I don't need to relax. I am perfectly fine evaluating Liljegren where I think he belongs (which is not high anymore, but perhaps with a healthy season he can bounce back) instead of pretending that that he hasn't fallen significantly as a prospect - both in the year before the draft as well as since the draft. He is a very good AHL defenseman, but lots of very good AHL defensemen fail to make the next step and lack of production is a very strong indicator.

Saying that this is the first season the he has scored more than one goal since he was 15 is only true if you only count the highest level of play he played in each season. But for instance he scored 7 goals (in 29 games) in the SuperElit at 16 and 5 goals (in 12 games) in the SuperElit. You add in world juniors and TV-Pucken and Liljegren has always been a major goal scoring threat. Up until he came down with mono Liljegren was considered the offensive wonder, significantly ahead of Brannstrom, and while Dahlin, a year younger, was always considered the better overall D, again Liljegren was the greater offensive threat, up until Dahlin surged past him at 17.

It is the constant revisionism by people here that is frustrating. Liljegren is a great defensive D (he's not - he is decent). Liljegren was not on the PP1 this year (he was). Liljegren was never considered a offensive D (he was). Maybe Liljegren used to put up points, but now he is great at getting the puck out of his zone (he always was great at that).

This was about Liljegren in March of 2016 when he was ranked around #2 for the 2017 draft:

Timothy Liljegren is a 16-year-old playing in the SHL with Rögle BK. Already he is one of the smartest defensemen in the league. He shows very promising potential to become a future NHL powerplay quarterback. His 5 points in 19 games this year may not catch the eye, but his technical play has been terrific. His first pass is consistent and his IQ, as previously stated, is off the charts.

And McKenzie in September of 2016:

2. Timothy Liljegren:

The Swede is the undisputed top defenceman in this draft and, at this point, it's not even close.
Scouts say his offensive game is far more developed than his defensive game. He is an elite skater, both in terms of speed and agility, and adept at running a power play. He is seen as both a puck mover and an offensive point producer. No one is suggesting he's the next Erik Karlsson, not by any means, but scouts say he has some of the same qualities and, therefore, has the potential to be projected as a possible top pairing defenceman in time.
Liljegren is the only prospect other than Patrick who got 10 votes from the 10 scouts as a top-10 pick.

Again, always a very good puck mover. There are videos from when he was 16 showing elite stretch passes and effortless examples of him skating the puck out of his own zone with confidence.

When the Leafs drafted him he had fallen in the draft because scouts now evaluated his IQ as poor, even though the previous season they felt the opposite. It was immediately evident that those claims of terrible IQ and defensive play were wrong. But while Liljegren struggled with mono and injury in his draft year, other D zipped past him. And then he has missed a lot of time to injury in both his D+1 and D+2 and several more D his age have also zipped past him. That is the reality. Maybe with a healthy season next year he will bounce back to where he should have been developmentally, but maybe not.

 

[stickty111]

He is close to NHL ready.

 

[biotk]

Keefe is asked about some players that everyone knew played great. Like any even half decent coach would do, Keefe instead of further praising those players he praises others. So he says that Liljegren was outstanding and then immediately after said that Hollowell was outstanding and then he praised Duszak big time. No one has ever disputed that Liljegren is a good D at the AHL level. Liljegren will not be in the NHL next year, but several of the D taken after him in his draft who played in the AHL this year will be. Liljegren will probably not be the NHL the following year except for maybe a call up.

 

[stickty111]

Here are the playoff series for our prospects, and their stats in the series and entire playoffs.
Updated Monday April 29th

Games today
Game 5: Karpat wins 2-0
Karpat leads 3-2
Game 7: Guelph wins 3-2
Guelph wins series 4-3

Liiga
Finals: Karpat(2) vs HPK(5)
Karpat leads 3-2
Jesper Lindgren
Series:
GP 5 Goals Assists 1 Points 1
Playoffs:
GP 16 Goals 1 Assists 3 Points 4
Regular season:
GP: 45 Goals: 2 Assists: 17 Points: 19

OHL
3rd round: Saginaw(1) vs Guelph(4)
Guelph wins series 4-3
Fedor Gordeev
Series:
GP 7 Goals 1 Assists 1 Points 2
Playoffs:
GP 18 Goals 2 Assists 1 Points 3
Regular season:
GP: 63 Goals: 7 Assists: 25 Points: 32

WHL
3rd round: Prince Albert(1) vs Edmonton(1)
Prince Albert wins series 4-2
Ian Scott
Series:
GP 6 SV% .934 GAA 1.93 SO 2
Playoffs:
GP 16 SV% .930 GAA 1.84 SO 3
Regular season:
GP: 49 SV%: .932 GAA: 1.83 SO: 8

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Did Liljegren play on the top power play unit this year?

Only for a couple of shifts.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Here are the playoff series for our prospects, and their stats in the series and entire playoffs.
Updated Monday April 29th

Games today
Game 5: Karpat wins 2-0
Karpat leads 3-2
Game 7: Guelph wins 3-2
Guelph wins series 4-3

Liiga
Finals: Karpat(2) vs HPK(5)
Karpat leads 3-2
Jesper Lindgren
Series:
GP 5 Goals Assists 1 Points 1
Playoffs:
GP 16 Goals 1 Assists 3 Points 4
Regular season:
GP: 45 Goals: 2 Assists: 17 Points: 19

OHL
3rd round: Saginaw(1) vs Guelph(4)
Guelph wins series 4-3
Fedor Gordeev
Series:
GP 7 Goals 1 Assists 1 Points 2
Playoffs:
GP 18 Goals 2 Assists 1 Points 3
Regular season:
GP: 63 Goals: 7 Assists: 25 Points: 32

WHL
3rd round: Prince Albert(1) vs Edmonton(1)
Prince Albert wins series 4-2
Ian Scott
Series:
GP 6 SV% .934 GAA 1.93 SO 2
Playoffs:
GP 16 SV% .930 GAA 1.84 SO 3
Regular season:
GP: 49 SV%: .932 GAA: 1.83 SO: 8

Seeing Gordeev and Scott at the Memorial Cup would be good.

Ottawa hasn't lost a game yet in the playoffs though and Guelph has had to fight back from 3-0 and 3-1 deficits against two tough teams already.

 

[Knies iT]

I don't need to relax. I am perfectly fine evaluating Liljegren where I think he belongs (which is not high anymore, but perhaps with a healthy season he can bounce back) instead of pretending that that he hasn't fallen significantly as a prospect - both in the year before the draft as well as since the draft. He is a very good AHL defenseman, but lots of very good AHL defensemen fail to make the next step and lack of production is a very strong indicator.

Saying that this is the first season the he has scored more than one goal since he was 15 is only true if you only count the highest level of play he played in each season. But for instance he scored 7 goals (in 29 games) in the SuperElit at 16 and 5 goals (in 12 games) in the SuperElit. You add in world juniors and TV-Pucken and Liljegren has always been a major goal scoring threat. Up until he came down with mono Liljegren was considered the offensive wonder, significantly ahead of Brannstrom, and while Dahlin, a year younger, was always considered the better overall D, again Liljegren was the greater offensive threat, up until Dahlin surged past him at 17.

It is the constant revisionism by people here that is frustrating. Liljegren is a great defensive D (he's not - he is decent). Liljegren was not on the PP1 this year (he was). Liljegren was never considered a offensive D (he was). Maybe Liljegren used to put up points, but now he is great at getting the puck out of his zone (he always was great at that).

This was about Liljegren in March of 2016 when he was ranked around #2 for the 2017 draft:



And McKenzie in September of 2016:



Again, always a very good puck mover. There are videos from when he was 16 showing elite stretch passes and effortless examples of him skating the puck out of his own zone with confidence.

When the Leafs drafted him he had fallen in the draft because scouts now evaluated his IQ as poor, even though the previous season they felt the opposite. It was immediately evident that those claims of terrible IQ and defensive play were wrong. But while Liljegren struggled with mono and injury in his draft year, other D zipped past him. And then he has missed a lot of time to injury in both his D+1 and D+2 and several more D his age have also zipped past him. That is the reality. Maybe with a healthy season next year he will bounce back to where he should have been developmentally, but maybe not.

This is a pretty fair assessment. I think at this point with Liljegren, he may never be the best offensive D on the roster, nor will he be the best defensive D, but he may be the best transition player; he probably already is for the Marlies. I envision him as a 30ish point defender who has exceptional zone exits, can plug in to any pair, and limits D-zone pressure with his terrific breakouts and evasiveness. Those attributes may not translate in to 50+ point seasons, but he'll be a crucial part of a highly mobile, puck moving blueline. Sounds a lot like another player the Leafs will sorely miss next season in Gardiner.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This is a pretty fair assessment. I think at this point with Liljegren, he may never be the best offensive D on the roster, nor will he be the best defensive D, but he may be the best transition player; he probably already is for the Marlies. I envision him as a 30ish point defender who has exceptional zone exits, can plug in to any pair, and limits D-zone pressure with his terrific breakouts and evasiveness. Those attributes may not translate in to 50+ point seasons, but he'll be a crucial part of a highly mobile, puck moving blueline. Sounds a lot like another player the Leafs will sorely miss next season in Gardiner.

I see either the 2nd or 3rd best PKer, maybe the 2nd PP guy, and a consistent 40+ point guy with maybe the odd 50 point season out of him. I think he has the skills to put up more than 40 points consistently.

I think he's like a T.J. Brodie or an Anton Stralman, with a little bit more high end skill than either. So you are looking at a high end #2/#3 on a contender who will be key to winning Cups. I'd take that out of a mid-1st round pick any year. If he can explode his offense, then he's easily a #1... But we don't need that out of him either.

 

[Cotton]

I don't know what to say on Gordeev. The OHL scouts seem to like him, and he skates well for a big guy plus has good puck skills, but the production isn't there at all.
Obviously I wouldn't sign him to an ELC, however maybe an AHL deal.

Love Gordeev. He's not going to give you much offense even though he'll pull off something fancy once in awhile, I see him as a bigger and faster Marincin. 6'7 230 who can skate and move the puck.

He's worth taking the time to develop.

Rasanen and Gordeev both are worthwhile projects.

 

[deletethis]

Love Gordeev. He's not going to give you much offense even though he'll pull off something fancy once in awhile, I see him as a bigger and faster Marincin. 6'7 230 who can skate and move the puck.

He's worth taking the time to develop.

Rasanen and Gordeev both are worthwhile projects.

It'll be very useful one day when the Leafs actually source their own long reach big body defender. We can't say they haven't tried. Anyways you can't force it. If you draft these guys at 18 and they don't progress enough, might as well move on.

 

[Duke16]

Yegor Korshkov is in Toronto and will presumably sign tomorrow. I think it would be for 2 years, but he will finish the year on an ATO

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I don't need to relax. I am perfectly fine evaluating Liljegren where I think he belongs (which is not high anymore, but perhaps with a healthy season he can bounce back) instead of pretending that that he hasn't fallen significantly as a prospect - both in the year before the draft as well as since the draft. He is a very good AHL defenseman, but lots of very good AHL defensemen fail to make the next step and lack of production is a very strong indicator.

Saying that this is the first season the he has scored more than one goal since he was 15 is only true if you only count the highest level of play he played in each season. But for instance he scored 7 goals (in 29 games) in the SuperElit at 16 and 5 goals (in 12 games) in the SuperElit. You add in world juniors and TV-Pucken and Liljegren has always been a major goal scoring threat. Up until he came down with mono Liljegren was considered the offensive wonder, significantly ahead of Brannstrom, and while Dahlin, a year younger, was always considered the better overall D, again Liljegren was the greater offensive threat, up until Dahlin surged past him at 17.

It is the constant revisionism by people here that is frustrating. Liljegren is a great defensive D (he's not - he is decent). Liljegren was not on the PP1 this year (he was). Liljegren was never considered a offensive D (he was). Maybe Liljegren used to put up points, but now he is great at getting the puck out of his zone (he always was great at that).

This was about Liljegren in March of 2016 when he was ranked around #2 for the 2017 draft:



And McKenzie in September of 2016:



Again, always a very good puck mover. There are videos from when he was 16 showing elite stretch passes and effortless examples of him skating the puck out of his own zone with confidence.

When the Leafs drafted him he had fallen in the draft because scouts now evaluated his IQ as poor, even though the previous season they felt the opposite. It was immediately evident that those claims of terrible IQ and defensive play were wrong. But while Liljegren struggled with mono and injury in his draft year, other D zipped past him. And then he has missed a lot of time to injury in both his D+1 and D+2 and several more D his age have also zipped past him. That is the reality. Maybe with a healthy season next year he will bounce back to where he should have been developmentally, but maybe not.

A 2 page reply followed by a 4 page reply to basically say what could be said in one sentence:

Against his peers, he excels offensively while playing against levels above his peers his offense has yet to translate.

Again, there is reason to believe he will be at least decent offensively but that is about the farthest thing we should concern ourselves with right now or that we should be gauging him by. He is winding up year two as a pro (albeit injury filled two years) while many of his peers are/were still playing junior. Despite battling through injuries he has managed to put up 32 points in just over a season's worth of games (if points are your big worry). What is more important is the whole of his game.

I've seen this play out too many times. Rielly was one example where fans mocked the notion Toronto could have a Keith in house and argued Keith's points as a 26 year old versus Rielly's as a 19 year old (despite Keith never even playing in the NHL until he was 22). Lo and behold, Morgan is now a 72 point defenseman. Likewise for years people ragged on Kadri despite him being ahead of the historical curve at every step. Liljegren too is playing ahead of the curve. Personally, I don't care if he becomes a 50+ point d-man, I care that he becomes a good d-man.

Did you know that going back to 2000 (I got tired of looking), only twice in 18 years has a Stanley Cup championship team had their second highest scoring d-man hit more than 39 points? Pronger hit 59 and Rafalski hit 55. In 12/18 years the second highest hit 34 points or less. In 6/18 the second highest never even hit 30 points.

We have a 70+ point d-man. We don't need the second coming of Jesus for offense from the D. We do need defenders capable of getting out of our zone and chipping in adequately from the back end. Liljegren is ahead of the curve.

 

[Joey Hoser]

but several of the D taken after him in his draft who played in the AHL this year will be.

There are only 3 other defencemen from his draft in the AHL, and only Brannstrom did notably better this season.

I don't think you're aware of the fact that teenagers generally don't play in the AHL. The following is a list of all the players who've played defense in the AHL at 19, EVER. The fact that even plays there competently instead of still playing Junior in Canada or the SHL, is impressive.

19-Year Old AHL Defensemen - Regular Season Stats

 

[Mr Hockey]

Yegor Korshkov is in Toronto and will presumably sign tomorrow. I think it would be for 2 years, but he will finish the year on an ATO

I was 99.9% sure he was coming, he should crack the Leafs lineup next season, will be good to get size and skill in this lineup. Martins Dzierkals khl deal is up too.

 

[Magic Man]

Yegor Korshkov is in Toronto and will presumably sign tomorrow. I think it would be for 2 years, but he will finish the year on an ATO

Hopefully he is inserted immediately for round #2.

 

[DarkKnight]

Sportsnet Luke Fox on 590 today saying word around the Leafs is Lil's stock has fallen, Sandin is considered the better prospect. He then made some bizarre proposal wherein SJ takes back Marleau and we throw in Lil to sweeten the deal. Umm no.

 

[stickty111]

A 2 page reply followed by a 4 page reply to basically say what could be said in one sentence:

Against his peers, he excels offensively while playing against levels above his peers his offense has yet to translate.

Again, there is reason to believe he will be at least decent offensively but that is about the farthest thing we should concern ourselves with right now or that we should be gauging him by. He is winding up year two as a pro (albeit injury filled two years) while many of his peers are/were still playing junior. Despite battling through injuries he has managed to put up 32 points in just over a season's worth of games (if points are your big worry). What is more important is the whole of his game.

I've seen this play out too many times. Rielly was one example where fans mocked the notion Toronto could have a Keith in house and argued Keith's points as a 26 year old versus Rielly's as a 19 year old (despite Keith never even playing in the NHL until he was 22). Lo and behold, Morgan is now a 72 point defenseman. Likewise for years people ragged on Kadri despite him being ahead of the historical curve at every step. Liljegren too is playing ahead of the curve. Personally, I don't care if he becomes a 50+ point d-man, I care that he becomes a good d-man.

Did you know that going back to 2000 (I got tired of looking), only twice in 18 years has a Stanley Cup championship team had their second highest scoring d-man hit more than 39 points? Pronger hit 59 and Rafalski hit 55. In 12/18 years the second highest hit 34 points or less. In 6/18 the second highest never even hit 30 points.

We have a 70+ point d-man. We don't need the second coming of Jesus for offense from the D. We do need defenders capable of getting out of our zone and chipping in adequately from the back end. Liljegren is ahead of the curve.

It's no use. People have their narratives, and don't like to hear actual facts.
The truth is Lilly has been very good this season. The underlying stats prove it, the eye test, and the coach also has good things to say about him. He isn't praising just to get Lilly a little bit of "confidence".
His numbers are okay since he is on the 2nd PP unit. He gets 25+ minutes of ice time, and is relied on a lot by Keefe.

 

[stickty111]

Liily is playing on the top pair, and he deserves it.

 

[horner]

Yegor Korshkov is in Toronto and will presumably sign tomorrow. I think it would be for 2 years, but he will finish the year on an ATO

Nice.
Excited to see him play

 

[horner]

Liily is playing on the top pair, and he deserves it.

I agree.