Prospect Info: 2018/19 Marlies & Prospects Thread Part V

[The Shadow]

Time will speak for itself. In the next 2 years we will know what we have

 

[biotk]

I'm genuinely curious why you're so sour on Liljegren when you admit that you didn't watch him play this season. Is it purely because of the basic offensive stats such as PPG that may or may not be taken out of context?

Extreme lack of production and lack of development. I am not going to try to convince you of anything, because I have been a hockey fan long enough to know that the vast majority of fans will continue to think that their prospects are all top notch long after it is should have been clear that is not the case for several of them.

I don't need to have watched him play much this year. I watched him play quite a bit last year. He looked good, but his production was low. Players can look good at one level and not be able to make the next step. Being able to dominate at that level for a stretch is a good indicator (he hasn't - Dermott did. Sandin and Rosen have). And point production is a very strong indicator. (Pretty much everyone knows that, unless their fav prospect is not producing in which case "who cares about points?" - for that specific prospect), but there were not many comparables for players his age in the AHL last year, and I felt it could have been bad puck luck, or being hyper-focused on defensive play and in turn throwing off his offensive rhythm, or it could be that he just doesn't have the toolbox. But he now has 110 games of very poor production. I don't mean very low production among D who are destined to be top-4 D in the NHL. I mean very low production period. Like second worst on the team among regular D - despite being on the top pairing and getting a decent amount of PP time. And his ES point production....real, real bad.

20 ES points and 16 PP points in 110 games. That is a 27 point pace over 82 games. At ES it is less than 15 points per 82. On a team that has scored a lot of goals over the last two season. People will say, yeah he isn't going a major offensive threat in the NHL. Maybe just a consistent 40 point player. 40 points in the NHL? In a season? Are you kidding me???

People will make all kinds of excuses, but they are little more than cognitive dissonance. Liljegren is playing hard minutes. Sure, but LoVerde is pretty much always the RHD most commonly used in DZ starts, and Liljegren's partner for most of the year was Rosen who put up a ridiculous number of ES points. But maybe he ends up taking the more defensive role when he is playing with Rosen. Except his partners always put up more points. When he played with Marincin for a spell last year, Marincin put up more points. Well maybe he makes the players around him better. Not really. Dermott's most dominant games last year was when Liljegren was out of the lineup. It doesn't matter if he doesn't produce, he is great at transitioning the puck out of his zone. Few players have much of an impact at the NHL level if they are good at one thing.

Lack of development. Liljegren was considered the #1 D prospect for his draft a year out. By the time the draft came around he had fallen several slots. Now 2 years after the draft he is being surpassed by more and more (this is also seen when he plays for Swedish international teams with mostly the same teammates year after year). Development is not linear but when prospects who were very highly rated start to fall they rarely regain that ground. This is not a likely late developer candidate (like Hollowell might be). This is a stalled prospect. He has been a pro for 4 years. He has been with a great development team. Maybe things change, but it is more likely that Liljegren has hit a ceiling for which further progress will be exceedingly slow.

I know that everyone will disagree. We will see who is right 3 years down the road.

 

[biotk]

Who ****ing cares .
Jesus man can you just let it go.
Holly ****.
So he's not going to be a grt point producer wow.

There is an ignore button there for posters who can't handle that others may hold different views. I suggest you use it.

 

[biotk]

Ever crossed your mind they want him to learn the defensively responsible role before he's asked to open it up offensively?

Let me repost a Keefe quote (referring to Liljegren, Sandin and Hollowell):

The thing we have tried to focused on the most is having them defend as little as possible, and play to their strengths.

I watched a lot of Marlies games last year. Did they want him to work on his defensive game? Of course. But they put him in every position to succeed offensively. He is on the first pairing. They expect him to be responsible, but they also want him to produce. LoVerde is always on the pairing that expected to play the major defensive role.

 

[kb]

More Keefe praise

Isn't it nice that Keefe builds up a guy who is obviously a liability?

 

[stickty111]

The great thing is Lilly's development has been good, and has solid point totals with 2nd unit PP time. He seems to play the stabilizing role on his pair. Rosen was not the same player when Lilly got hurt.
I know the excuses will continue to come for fans who believe he is declining, but we all know what's the reality.
His play is terrific, point totals are solid for the role he gets. Keefe thinks he is playing well.

@biotk might be just upset that his analysis is flawed, and Lilly is turning into a nice player for us.
He doesn't score hatricks every game, but some people need to realize, it doesn't mean he has stalled.

 

[Cor]

I don't need to have watched him play much this year. I watched him play quite a bit last year.

lmao

 

[Leafs at Knight]

lmao

Yea that explains a lot, makes sense.

 

[stickty111]

Isn't it nice that Keefe builds up a guy who is obviously a liability?

Underlying stats, eye test, coach's opinion is all positive, but a poster says he has stalled.
I wonder what the actual truth is

 

[stickty111]

lmao

He basically admitted to being wrong.

 

[kb]

lmao

I like this poster for the most part. But yes, that post says it all. He admits to watching 1 (yes 1) game of this this season.

 

[kb]

Underlying stats, eye test, coach's opinion is all positive, but a poster says he has stalled.
I wonder what the actual truth is

Gonna have to go with bust. Magic 8 ball says so....?

 

[stickty111]

I like this poster for the most part. But yes, that post says it all. He admits to watching 1 (yes 1) game of this this season.

It's quite sad. He was one of my favorite posters, but this debate has knocked him down.

 

[Cor]

I also find it humorous when people use “Sandin is a better prospect” to somehow drag Liljegren.

Sandin is turning into something special. Of course he’s a better prospect. That’s like dragging Bracco by saying Marner was a better prospect. No shit.

Liljegren has essentially turned into a modern day defensive d-man.

He can;
- Handle the puck under pressure
- Is a Zone Exit BEAST
- Is very good at gap control.


he’s essentially the opposite of everything people complained about with Polak and Zaitsev.

 

[kb]

It's quite sad. He was one of my favorite posters, but this debate has knocked him down.

Very level headed and rational takes. That is what I liked. Measured, without this type of hot takes. I'm not sure why there is so much emotion on these posts.

 

[kb]

I also find it humorous when people use “Sandin is a better prospect” to somehow drag Liljegren.

Sandin is turning into something special. Of course he’s a better prospect. That’s like dragging Bracco by saying Marner was a better prospect. No ****.

Liljegren has essentially turned into a modern day defensive d-man.

He can;
- Handle the puck under pressure
- Is a Zone Exit BEAST
- Is very good at gap control.


he’s essentially the opposite of everything people complained about with Polak and Zaitsev.

He is being brought along on the Rielly path. Is that so wrong? People can't see that he has the leash on him. Sad.

 

[Cor]

It’s pretty incredible that we could potentially add 3 prospects in Bracco, Sandin and Liljegren to the roster at some point next season.

This draft is important. Need to get a couple hits to help replenish things a bit.

Connor Brown should return a pick.

I wouldn’t at all be shocked to see Andreas Johnsson traded. Just a feeling I get.

 

[Gutchecktime]

Huh? Liljgren’s production isn’t even poor when compared to other 19 year old defensemen who have played in the AHL... not sure who he’s being compared to here but his age matters and is important context.

 

[DanM]

The great thing is Lilly's development has been good, and has solid point totals with 2nd unit PP time. He seems to play the stabilizing role on his pair. Rosen was not the same player when Lilly got hurt.
I know the excuses will continue to come for fans who believe he is declining, but we all know what's the reality.
His play is terrific, point totals are solid for the role he gets. Keefe thinks he is playing well.

@biotk might be just upset that his analysis is flawed, and Lilly is turning into a nice player for us.
He doesn't score hatricks every game, but some people need to realize, it doesn't mean he has stalled.

He is also still a child, and one who had to go through a lot of bad injury luck.

I watch Marlie games all the time, I think he will be a very good RHD for the Leafs.

 

[Duke16]

I'd argue that Sandin's season has pushed him into blue chip prospect territory.

Timothy Liljegren is still a fantastic D prospect who is ahead of the curve. People always ignore the fact that most of his fellow draftees played Junior this year. Liljegren is out there defending top AHL competition and just turned 20 yesterday.

 

[Rielly4]

Its hard for people to see how good Liljegren and Sandin are because they arent playing against their peers. In the World Juniors they were both very good. Even though its a small sample size most of the time players dominate the world juniors they become very solid NHL players. They should both be top 4 NHL D men at some point but it might not be until they are 22 or 23. They could probably both play bottom pair in the show next year but i dont know if it would be the best thing for their development.

Opinion: Liljegren is a risky style d man and should not be considered a defensive d man. He is getting better in this regard and he closes gaps well with his skating but he is a risky puck mover and is a lot like a young Jake Gardiner...Which isnt a bad thing, Gardiner is a good defenseman.

 

[horner]

There is an ignore button there for posters who can't handle that others may hold different views. I suggest you use it.

It's the same shit from you everytime.
Pick another player.

 

[horner]

Like I said we will see in a couple years. If I was part of a fan circle jerk about a prospect who has clearly stalled I would want to blow my brains out.

It's funny that is what we all are saying.
Untill they get to the big club no one knows.

Marincin hall and Sparkes look grt for the Marlies. Suck in the NHL .

Moore did anyone see this from him on the Marlies .
Now he could possibly be on the 3rd line with the Leafs.

Ljiligren
Sandin
Bracco
Korshkov

Never no till they are in the NHL .

Watch them and enjoy there growth.

Give an opinion of a player but don't harrasse them

 

[taurine330]

This thread has turned to a huge waste of the time.

 

[DarkKnight]

Maybe the narrative has changed is all. The former consensus was Sandin is the safer bet, Lil higher ceiling. They're both going to make the NHL, perhaps we're tweaking eventual upside.