Salary Cap: 2017-18 Roster Building Thread V | Contract/FA charts in Post #1 | CAP SET at $75M

[Zbynek]

Duchene to Pittsburgh makes absolutely zero sense.

I do hope Rutherford can lock down Bonino at a reasonable price, but if we can't get him under 4million I also like the idea of Martin Hanzal on the Pens. We could use his size and faceoff ability.

 

[Andy99]

Yeah, it's right that after two years either Duchene or Kessel likely has to go. But it doesn't have to be the case. Guentzel won't get paid big on a second contract even if he's better than he is today. Hornqvist will likely be gone or on a short contract, Hagelin will be gone. Sheary will have been trading Ed. Rust won't make big money. Who is there to be paid in two years who isn't going to be paid now?
And in the meantime, what a Cup window with Duchene! After two more years, Sid and Geno may be less effective. This is a good deal now that improves the team and JR should consider Maatta Sheary and a first for Duchene

 

[Empoleon8771]

Who's going to get more overpaid in free agency, Daley or Bonino? Because I'm honestly not sure which one I'd put more money on.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Listing contracts from 5-9 years ago are not comparables. I listed a contract that was signed last week for someone who brings a fraction of what Dumoulin does to the table. That's going to be a LOT more relevant then a contract that Vlasic signed in 2008.

Really, the only one there worth anything is Alzners, and even that was one signed 4 years ago when the cap was 10.7m lower then it is today. And when he signed that contract, he was coming off of a 1g/5pt season in 48 games (1.7g/8.5pt pace). His two previous seasons? 2g/12pts, 1g/17pts. So no, he's not really bringing any more offense then Dumoulin does.

So how much do you think Dumoulin is going to get, then, since you seem to be laughing at my suggestion of around $3 million per year?

If Dumoulin ends up getting Maatta-like money, he'd be earning similar to what the best defensive defensemen in hockey earn on their UFA deals. Vlasic is making $4.25 million, Hjalmarsson is making $4.1 million, Tanev is making $4.45 million. You think an RFA Dumoulin who provides zero goals from the blueline (these things DO matter when negotiating) will bring in that much?

 

[HandshakeLine]

Who's going to get more overpaid in free agency, Daley or Bonino? Because I'm honestly not sure which one I'd put more money on.

I'm hoping Daley. I'm afraid it's going to be Bonino, and we're the ones writing the check.

Best case? Daley gets cash somewhere on the East, Bonino takes a discount and stays.

 

[WayneSid9987]

3.5 is probably where JR starts in Dumo's negotiations.
He'll end up in the 3.85-4.2 range, imo.

And yea, seen it in Friedman's 30 thoughts today that quite a few teams are interested in Daley.
Never thought he'd come back anyway cuz Schultz is taking over the 2nd pairing spot permanently with his next deal.

 

[Nakawick]

Two reason I don't want Bones back are his potential contract and it's length as well as the team becoming stale. We need to avoid bad contracts and a stale roster. Now is the time we switch it up. There is nothing out there to spend a big contract on. Radulov and Shattenkirk will probably be the highest paid followed by Bones and Hanzal, maybe Thornton. The UFA D's are going to be pricey.
I hope we cqn get Schultz and Dumo on longer term deals at good prices. I would be ok with those 2 signing long term. Sheary I would offer 2 years at 2 mil to take him to UFA status.

 

[Riptide]

How would a guy who "brings a fraction of what Dumoulin does to the table" be a comparable for Dumoulin, though?

I'm not saying that it's comparable - I'm pointing out how unrealistic a long term deal at 3m is.

That's like Sheary saying "Connolly sucks and he just got $1.5 million per year, so give me $5 million per year".

Not even close. No one is suggesting that Dumoulin gets something that's 3.3 times what Sustr received.

 

[Riptide]

So how much do you think Dumoulin is going to get, then, since you seem to be laughing at my suggestion of around $3 million per year?

If Dumoulin ends up getting Maatta-like money, he'd be earning similar to what the best defensive defensemen in hockey earn on their UFA deals. Vlasic is making $4.25 million, Hjalmarsson is making $4.1 million, Tanev is making $4.45 million. You think an RFA Dumoulin who provides zero goals from the blueline (these things DO matter when negotiating) will bring in that much?

Dumoulin: 4-5 years 3.75-4.25m

 

[mpp9]

I'd rather buy low on a D for the bottom pairing than bring back Daley. We're gonna be paying Schultz like a 2nd pairing D. Play him like one.

 

[Andy99]

Dumoulin: 4-5 years 3.75-4.25m

If they pay him that much, they're stupid. The compatibles are about $3 mil. They shouldn't go much higher

 

[mpp9]

Duchene to Pittsburgh makes absolutely zero sense.

I do hope Rutherford can lock down Bonino at a reasonable price, but if we can't get him under 4million I also like the idea of Martin Hanzal on the Pens. We could use his size and faceoff ability.

I get not wanting to give up the assets, but in terms of fit and money, Duchene is literally twice the player Bonino is. His floor is Bonino's ceiling in the regular season.

 

[Riptide]

So how much do you think Dumoulin is going to get, then, since you seem to be laughing at my suggestion of around $3 million per year?

If Dumoulin ends up getting Maatta-like money, he'd be earning similar to what the best defensive defensemen in hockey earn on their UFA deals. Vlasic is making $4.25 million, Hjalmarsson is making $4.1 million, Tanev is making $4.45 million. You think an RFA Dumoulin who provides zero goals from the blueline (these things DO matter when negotiating) will bring in that much?

To further this... you're aware that Dumoulin only has 2 RFA years left? And you're aware when those guys signed those deals right?

Vlasic signed his current contract in 2012. Hjalmarsson signed his in 2013.

The closest comparable that I can think of is probably Connor Murphy at 6x3.85m or DeKeyser at 6x5m. Somewhere in there. Probably higher than Murphy's due to the number of UFA years a long term deal would be buying up.

 

[Riptide]

If they pay him that much, they're stupid. The compatibles are about $3 mil. They shouldn't go much higher

Which comparables? Ones who signed a contract 6-9 years ago? Those are not comparables.

 

[mpp9]

The equivalent contract for Dumoulin today relative to Alzner back in 2013 would be 3.3. Factor in Dumo's older and more UFA years, id say best we can hope for is 3.5.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The equivalent contract for Dumoulin today relative to Alzner back in 2013 would be 3.3. Factor in Dumo's older and more UFA years, id say best we can hope for is 3.5.

I think $3.3 would be a fair guess for Dumoulin to be honest. Alzner is actually a fantastic comparable for Dumoulin, he had 1 goal and 17 points while playing 20:52 a game in the last full season (11-12), although he struggled in 12-13. He also signed that contract before his 25 year old season (had 2 years until UFA as far as I can tell), while Dumoulin is 25 right now (he either has 1 or 2 years until UFA). I think considering Dumoulin's playoff success, $3.3-$3.5 million is a fair guess.

 

[mpp9]

I think $3.3 would be a fair guess for Dumoulin to be honest. Alzner is actually a fantastic comparable for Dumoulin, he had 1 goal and 17 points while playing 20:52 a game in the last full season (11-12), although he struggled in 12-13. He also signed that contract before his 25 year old season, while Dumoulin is 25 right now. I think considering the higher cap and Dumoulin's playoff success, $3.3-$3.5 million is a fair guess.

Cap was 64.3 back in 2013. It's 75 now. 2.8 then is 3.3 now. That's all I meant.

 

[Riptide]

Alzner in 2013 got $2.8 million against the cap, not $3.3. I think $3.3 would be a fair guess for Dumoulin to be honest.

And the cap was 64.3m at the time, not 75m. The same cap percentage today is 3.26m. Do you really think that Dumoulin after playing a prominent role in two cups would sign a 4x3.26m contract?

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

At least we're talking Dumo and not Yak.


I thought he only had one more year left of RFA?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

To further this... you're aware that Dumoulin only has 2 RFA years left? And you're aware when those guys signed those deals right?

Vlasic signed his current contract in 2012. Hjalmarsson signed his in 2013.

The closest comparable that I can think of is probably Connor Murphy at 6x3.85m or DeKeyser at 6x5m. Somewhere in there. Probably higher than Murphy's due to the number of UFA years a long term deal would be buying up.

DeKeyser's not a very good comparison. He scored more goals in his rookie season than Dumoulin has scored in his entire NHL career. He also had a 31 point season in there, suggesting some untapped offensive upside (which clearly isn't manifesting, but that's using hindsight).

I know there's more to being a defenseman than stats, but those do weigh heavily in contracts. And Dumoulin's offensive production gives him zero leverage. His entire contract will be determined based on what JR and Co. feel his "defensive game" is worth, since his agent has zero leverage when it comes to pointing out his point totals.

PS. For the record I have said "around $3 million". I edited my original post, I believe, but I originally put the range as somewhere between $3 million to $3.5 million per year.

 

[Riptide]

I thought he only had one more year left of RFA?

Two years. Next July he'll still only be 26.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I thought it was badly argued in that he didn't cover the base of Sprong, or what the trade looks like in two years time (which is still Cup window), at all. Also made some rather large assumptions about how much Maatta's medical past is affecting his skating right now.

But more to the point... yeah, if Sprong + Maatta + 1st is the deal, then I don't think I want to do it. Going over the points he makes, I disagree with enough of them that I'm against the deal.

I'm not entirely confident Duchene is the 3C we need (or that he's actually being lined up to play there), I think replacing Maatta without it being a downgrade is hard, I think Sprong is a decent bet to be a late campaign reinforcement this year and I think you could end up missing that 1st come TDL too. I think Duchene could be great here and I really like having him as Sid/Geno insurance but I'd be leaning against the deal just for this year alone.

The bit where two years down the line you don't have Sprong's cheap goal scoring and Maatta's replacement might need paying, while you try to re-up Duchene and given Guentzel his money all at once... yeah.

I'm not hardset against it, but I don't think he fulfils enough of a need or puts us enough over the top to be worth two assets who are contributing now and could be contributing really big in the future.

Sprong's greatest value could be essentially replacing Kessel for a fraction of the price in a couple years - he's due a new contract next summer and I don't see how he does enough between now and then to earn a big deal. That could open up a lot of cap room for whatever we want to address.

As far as Maatta's medical past affecting his skating - I think that's the writer just trying to give him a little benefit of the doubt from a potential trade partner's perspective after some virtually non-existent off-seasons. I'm confident with Dumo and Cole holding down our top 4 LD spots this year. Things are a little murkier after that, but I don't think Maatta's so essential that we can't part with him to acquire a talent like Duchene.

So yeah...we're at about the same place I think haha. Moving Maatta and some futures for Duchene is workable, Sprong not so much.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I'd be very surprised if Dumo got anything over 4 million per year.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

Two years. Next July he'll still only be 26.

That might bump my number down a bit but I don't think by much. Or maybe 6 years.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Dumo's gonna end up in the 3-3.5 mil per range, I think.