Salary Cap: 2017-18 Roster Building Thread V | Contract/FA charts in Post #1 | CAP SET at $75M

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

Everyone but Bones, Cullen and Condon on the list above would be paid too much.

Dumo at $3.9 million despite getting zero offense from him? He should be closer to $3 million. Sheary's had one productive season. He should still be on a "show me more" contract. $2 million to $2.5 million per. And Schultz should be under $5 million. Especially if he's getting term, he should be closer to $4 million to $4.5 million.

I agree with all of that, and I think it is high for Bones too, but unfortunately I think they're all going to get overpaid a bit.

 

[Andy99]

Can you give us a snippet? Paywall.

He says trading for Duchene would be the right move even if costs Maatta, Spring and a first and picking up a new D man. Makes the Pens better. I wouldn't do Spromg but I think the best move is signing Sheary to a bridge deal and then trading him

 

[Empoleon8771]

Just thinking out loud, I wonder if the Penguins move Wilson for a center or defensemen and promote Sprong to start the year. It would probably be one of the less surprising things for me to see, because the Penguins do have the cap space to play Hagelin on the 4th line without many issues.

Right on topic...enjoy. He's on board too

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/...lli-maatta-daniel-sprong/stories/201706270175

Who is that guy? Never heard of him.

I also want to puke at the idea of trading Maatta and Sprong both for Duchene. Like does this guy not understand there's a salary cap and cheap contributors like Sprong are insanely valuable due to that? You trade that package for Duchene and you come away with nothing in 2 years, since Duchene will walk as a free agent.

Dumo is going to get the same deal as Maatta most likely. If he was offered 3mil it'd be a slap in the face.

Dumoulin's lack of goal scoring talent makes Maatta's contract pretty much a nonstarter for him. He doesn't have the offensive game to justify giving him that much. Dumoulin has 1 goal and 31 points in 149 games in his last 2 seasons combined (plus 3 goals and 14 points in 49 playoff games), that's barely better than what Maatta put up in his rookie season.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Dumo is going to get the same deal as Maatta most likely. If he was offered 3mil it'd be a slap in the face.

At the time Maatta signed his deal, his offensive ceiling was high. He was expected to be a guy who could defend, but also chip in 30+ points per season. Dumo doesn't have that kind of offensive upside, and that should be reflected in their salaries.

Comparables:
-Karl Alzner is just coming off a $2.8 million RFA deal.
-Marc Methot was coming off a $3 million RFA deal prior to his current UFA deal.
-Nicklas Hjalmarsson was coming off a $3.5 million RFA deal prior to his latest one (which is still only $4.1 million).
-ME Vlasic was coming off a $3.1 million RFA deal. His current UFA deal is $4.25 million.

These guys were all the same age as Dumoulin when they signed their deals, and IMO, all add more offense than Dumoulin does.

I don't think it makes sense to pay Dumoulin that kind of money when he brings zero offense. Guys like him, as I listed above, suggest that's exactly the case.

 

[Nakawick]

I dunno. Colorado doesn't look like it's made any headway in the personnel department since they were by far the worst team in the NHL last year, and I can't imagine they're going to be a hotspot for UFAs.

Sakic could hold onto Duchene and hope he has a better season before he goes to market, but I think the odds of Duchene stagnating as a dead man walking on a terrible team are a lot higher than the odds of a resurgence there. And at that point, they're not likely getting anything resembling a young top 4 defenseman for him.

I would be shocked if Duchene goes back to Colorado. He is speaking through his agent and wondering why Sakic hasn't traded him yet. Duchene going back to that team would be disaster.

That said, Duchene to another team is probably going to look like the Duchene of previous years, an allstar center. I would not be shocked if any draft picks involved in a Duchene trade are conditional on performance, but I am not sure if Sakic has enough moxy for that type of deal. Duchene is dead set on getting something specific instead of overal value. We have something they want and will continue to be linked to Colorado.

 

[Riptide]

Everyone but Bones, Cullen and Condon on the list above would be paid too much.

Dumo at $3.9 million despite getting zero offense from him? He should be closer to $3 million. Sheary's had one productive season. He should still be on a "show me more" contract. $2 million to $2.5 million per. And Schultz should be under $5 million. Especially if he's getting term, he should be closer to $4 million to $4.5 million.

Sustr just signed for 1x1.95m... and you think the guy who anchored our blueline in the playoffs and played 26 minutes in the final game is only worth 3m?

 

[mpp9]

Just thinking out loud, I wonder if the Penguins move Wilson for a center or defensemen and promote Sprong to start the year. It would probably be one of the less surprising things for me to see, because the Penguins do have the cap space to play Hagelin on the 4th line without many issues.



Who is that guy? Never heard of him.

I also want to puke at the idea of trading Maatta and Sprong both for Duchene. Like does this guy not understand there's a salary cap and cheap contributors like Sprong are insanely valuable due to that? You trade that package for Duchene and you come away with nothing in 2 years, since Duchene will walk as a free agent.



Dumoulin's lack of goal scoring talent makes Maatta's contract pretty much a nonstarter for him. He doesn't have the offensive game to justify giving him that much. Dumoulin has 1 goal and 31 points in 149 games in his last 2 seasons combined (plus 3 goals and 14 points in 49 playoff games), that's barely better than what Maatta put up in his rookie season.

Keeping Duchene would necessitate Kessel being moved. And to be comfortable doing that, we'd need to have Sprong or someone like him ready to contribute.

Most I'd do for Duchene is Maatta+Rust/Sheary+1st. Hopefully Sakic gets backed into a corner and accepts it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sustr just signed for 1x1.95m... and you think the guy who anchored our blueline in the playoffs and played 26 minutes in the final game is only worth 3m?

Sustr just signed for 1x1.95m...and you think the guy who doesn't produce more offensively than Sustr is worth significantly more than $3 million? I have Dumoulin at $3.5, but I think that even is high. Sustr is a lower end 2nd pair DFD, Dumoulin isn't going to be making double what he makes.

Keeping Duchene would necessitate Kessel being moved. And to be comfortable doing that, we'd need to have Sprong or someone like him ready to contribute.

Most I'd do for Duchene is Maatta+Rust/Sheary+1st. Hopefully Sakic gets backed into a corner and accepts it.

And honestly, at that point, I'd rather just keep Kessel because Kessel's less likely to bolt as a free agent in 2 years when he can finally have a greater role than being a 3rd liner.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sustr just signed for 1x1.95m... and you think the guy who anchored our blueline in the playoffs and played 26 minutes in the final game is only worth 3m?

I listed comparable guys to what Dumo brings, and their salaries were all lower than Maatta's deal when they were RFAs. They also bring more offense than Dumoulin does.

Can you list guys who compare to Dumo that make as much or more than Maatta, but that didn't sign their contracts on the UFA market (ie. don't include an idiotic deal like Orpik's UFA deal)? The only guy who I can find that did is Tanev, at $4.45 million. And he brings more offense than Dumoulin does.

 

[Riptide]

At the time Maatta signed his deal, his offensive ceiling was high. He was expected to be a guy who could defend, but also chip in 30+ points per season. Dumo doesn't have that kind of offensive upside, and that should be reflected in their salaries.

Comparables:
-Karl Alzner is just coming off a $2.8 million RFA deal.
-Marc Methot was coming off a $3 million RFA deal prior to his current UFA deal.
-Nicklas Hjalmarsson was coming off a $3.5 million RFA deal prior to his latest one (which is still only $4.1 million).
-ME Vlasic was coming off a $3.1 million RFA deal. His current UFA deal is $4.25 million.

These guys were all the same age as Dumoulin when they signed their deals, and IMO, all add more offense than Dumoulin does.

I don't think it makes sense to pay Dumoulin that kind of money when he brings zero offense. Guys like him, as I listed above, suggest that's exactly the case.

This is going to be so entertaining.

Vlasic's 3.1m contract? Yeah he signed that in 2008 - 9 years ago. Nine!
Hjalmarsson's 3.5m contract? Signed in 2010 - 7 years ago.
Methot's 3m contract? Signed that in 2011 - 6 years ago.
Alzner's 2.8m contract? At least that's a little more relevant... I mean he only signed that one 4 years ago in 2013.

None of those are a legitimate comparable's due to how long ago they were signed. the cap in 2008 when Vlasic signed that contract was 56.7m. The cap when Alzner signed his contract was 64.3m. The cap has gone up between 10-20m since those contracts were signed.

Curious though... why wouldn't you use Vlasic's current contract? Or Hjalmarsson's? I mean if these are the players you're comparing Dumoulin to, and you want him to sign a long term deal eating up UFA years... given inflation and all that... those are probably pretty good reference points don't you think?

 

[Riptide]

Keeping Duchene would necessitate Kessel being moved. And to be comfortable doing that, we'd need to have Sprong or someone like him ready to contribute.

Would it though? How much of a raise would he be looking for? I mean if we can fit him in at 6m, I don't think it would be that hard to fit him in at 6.5-7m. Obviously there's serious depth issues with doing something like that, but I don't think it automatically means we're losing another key player.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

I'm curious about what Dumo will get. I'm leaning around 3.5 because of the offensive limitations even with the success and role he's had.

 

[mpp9]

And honestly, at that point, I'd rather just keep Kessel because Kessel's less likely to bolt as a free agent in 2 years when he can finally have a greater role than being a 3rd liner.

I'd take the guy 3 years younger, who's more versatile and plays Sullivan's system to a T.

But I would be comfortable unless I had another RHS sniper to replace Phil.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd take the guy 3 years younger, who's more versatile and plays Sullivan's system to a T.

But I would be comfortable unless I had another RHS sniper to replace Phil.

But the problem is you know that guy is leaving after 2 years if you're going to play him as a 3C. Kessel is here for a while because he can't leave, nor will he feel the need to leave for a greater role. Along with that, the Penguins would be in total control of when they decide to get rid of Kessel I'd imagine, unless his play would fall off a cliff. I'd rather have that than potentially losing Duchene to free agency because you can better prepare the team (aka make sure the young guys are ready) with a Kessel trade than letting Duchene walk as a free agent.

 

[mpp9]

Would it though? How much of a raise would he be looking for? I mean if we can fit him in at 6m, I don't think it would be that hard to fit him in at 6.5-7m. Obviously there's serious depth issues with doing something like that, but I don't think it automatically means we're losing another key player.

Guentzel and Rust/Sprong will be paid by then. Won't be easy unless the cap rises big time.

 

[DesertPenguin]

I would trade Sprong for the right 3C. Even though I think Sprong will score, a lot, I'm not convinced he will play a responsible 2 way game and we are loaded at W. I would also trade Maatta, even though I think his best hockey is ahead of him and he's doing just fine for a 23 year old, because his speed will always be an issue. What I won't do is trade both, plus a 1st, to fill a hole at 3C. Too much. Plus it means we need 2 D men for next season, not one, and it would push Sid/Geno to kill more penalties.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Would it though? How much of a raise would he be looking for? I mean if we can fit him in at 6m, I don't think it would be that hard to fit him in at 6.5-7m. Obviously there's serious depth issues with doing something like that, but I don't think it automatically means we're losing another key player.

I wouldn't say it's automatic unless but the cap will probably be under pressure. They'll have more raises from now until around that time. Guentzel, Sheary, rust, Murray, Sprong and maybe Hornqvist if he's still here. Schultz and dumoulin will be on new contracts. Replacing whatever it cost to get Duchene. God only knows what will happen to Letang in the next three years.

 

[Riptide]

I listed comparable guys to what Dumo brings, and their salaries were all lower than Maatta's deal when they were RFAs. They also bring more offense than Dumoulin does.

Can you list guys who compare to Dumo that make as much or more than Maatta, but that didn't sign their contracts on the UFA market (ie. don't include an idiotic deal like Orpik's UFA deal)? The only guy who I can find that did is Tanev, at $4.45 million. And he brings more offense than Dumoulin does.

Listing contracts from 5-9 years ago are not comparables. I listed a contract that was signed last week for someone who brings a fraction of what Dumoulin does to the table. That's going to be a LOT more relevant then a contract that Vlasic signed in 2008.

Really, the only one there worth anything is Alzners, and even that was one signed 4 years ago when the cap was 10.7m lower then it is today. And when he signed that contract, he was coming off of a 1g/5pt season in 48 games (1.7g/8.5pt pace). His two previous seasons? 2g/12pts, 1g/17pts. So no, he's not really bringing any more offense then Dumoulin does.

 

[mpp9]

But the problem is you know that guy is leaving after 2 years if you're going to play him as a 3C. Kessel is here for a while because he can't leave, nor will he feel the need to leave for a greater role.

We're not gonna part with Phil if Duchene is walking. We'd likely know that the summer before when we can negotiate a new deal with Duchene.

Duchene can play all three forward positions. It's not like he'll be buried on a typical third line all the time. Plus he'll be part of a stacked team that has a chance at a few more Cups. Maybe he values that more than being a 2C on a lesser team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

How would a guy who "brings a fraction of what Dumoulin does to the table" be a comparable for Dumoulin, though? That's like Sheary saying "Connolly sucks and he just got $1.5 million per year, so give me $5 million per year".

We're not gonna part with Phil if Duchene is walking. We'd likely know that the summer before when we can negotiate a new deal with Duchene.

The Penguins shouldn't plan on having either Duchene or Kessel on the roster in 2 years, if everything goes well.

Duchene can play all three forward positions. It's not like he'll be buried on a typical third line all the time. Plus he'll be part of a stacked team that has a chance at a few more Cups. Maybe he values that more than being a 2C on a lesser team.

But the issue is the Penguins don't need top-6 wingers, especially if Kessel is simultaneously there while Duchene comes in. Duchene's ability to play wing would be wasted when you realize he'd never play as a top-6 winger here, especially once Sprong comes into the fold. He also wouldn't be "a 2C on a lesser team", he'd be a 1C on a good team most likely. This isn't Jordan Staal we're talking about.

 

[Pancakes]

I'm curious about what Dumo will get. I'm leaning around 3.5 because of the offensive limitations even with the success and role he's had.

That sounds about right. Schultz is more of a wild card for me. Terrific season but he wasn't exactly lights out in previous years of his career. Can he talk his way up to 5 mil, or can we nab him longer term at 4m per?

 

[Peat]

I thought he covered all the bases pretty well.

But Sprong's a non-starter.

I thought it was badly argued in that he didn't cover the base of Sprong, or what the trade looks like in two years time (which is still Cup window), at all. Also made some rather large assumptions about how much Maatta's medical past is affecting his skating right now.

But more to the point... yeah, if Sprong + Maatta + 1st is the deal, then I don't think I want to do it. Going over the points he makes, I disagree with enough of them that I'm against the deal.

I'm not entirely confident Duchene is the 3C we need (or that he's actually being lined up to play there), I think replacing Maatta without it being a downgrade is hard, I think Sprong is a decent bet to be a late campaign reinforcement this year and I think you could end up missing that 1st come TDL too. I think Duchene could be great here and I really like having him as Sid/Geno insurance but I'd be leaning against the deal just for this year alone.

The bit where two years down the line you don't have Sprong's cheap goal scoring and Maatta's replacement might need paying, while you try to re-up Duchene and given Guentzel his money all at once... yeah.

I'm not hardset against it, but I don't think he fulfils enough of a need or puts us enough over the top to be worth two assets who are contributing now and could be contributing really big in the future.

 

[Riptide]

Sustr just signed for 1x1.95m...and you think the guy who doesn't produce more offensively than Sustr is worth significantly more than $3 million? I have Dumoulin at $3.5, but I think that even is high. Sustr is a lower end 2nd pair DFD, Dumoulin isn't going to be making double what he makes.

My point was that Dumoulin signing at 3m is absurd - he's going to get (and is worth) a lot more then that.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

That sounds about right. Schultz is more of a wild card for me. Terrific season but he wasn't exactly lights out in previous years of his career. Can he talk his way up to 5 mil, or can we nab him longer term at 4m per?

Schultz is another one where I just want to know. I think it'll be a good contract for 4 or 5 years (maybe 6, idk) because he's been burned before. If he wanted only money he could push for something stupid and probably be traded to somewhere desperate/stupid that would pay it. I don't think it's about talking him down or him trying to talk his way up.

It probably helps that Edmonton paid him well for years.

 

[BHD]

Looks like a bunch of teams are interested in Daley...