2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Constable]

People may remember this old list from That's Offsides old work showing Nik Ehlers.
It is missing last years draft data though.

Tkachuk I think is inflated with A2 and linemates, but man does this make me think PLD may be underrated even here.

I think Dubois is better than Puljujarvi.

 

[Flair Hay]

I strongly disagree both Fins are dynamic talents. I am craving a #1 Centre from a needs perspective but wingers are still very important especially if they are dynamic game breakers.

I'm still left wondering, how much better does a winger have to be than a center to justify taking a winger. Especially if the center has potential to be a 200 foot guy like Dubois.

If you have great centers, it's an easy choice. But we don't. We are probably bottom five in the league at the most important position.

If the Jets are picking 2nd overall tomorrow, I'm having trouble not picking Dubois. Even if the Finns end up better at their position.

In the context of building a complete team, the 6'3 center that has the numbers, work ethic, play away from the puck, etc is exactly what we need.

There's no guarantee we will be in this high of a spot next year. There is a pretty high chance if we pick somewhere from 4-7 he is gone already, so it may be moot. Edmonton, Calgary, Buffalo don't really need another center so at least we have that going for us.

 

[Channelcat]

I'm still left wondering, how much better does a winger have to be than a center to justify taking a winger. Especially if the center has potential to be a 200 foot guy like Dubois.

If you have great centers, it's an easy choice. But we don't. We are probably bottom five in the league at the most important position.

If the Jets are picking 2nd overall tomorrow, I'm having trouble not picking Dubois. Even if the Finns end up better at their position.

In the context of building a complete team, the 6'3 center that has the numbers, work ethic, play away from the puck, etc is exactly what we need.

There's no guarantee we will be in this high of a spot next year. There is a pretty high chance if we pick somewhere from 4-7 he is gone already, so it may be moot. Edmonton, Calgary, Buffalo don't really need another center so at least we have that going for us.

The Jets aren't going anywhere until they've got a legit #1 center. Maybe Little is the guy for a few years yet, and I think Schief will be an elite #2 C at best (if I can sensibly use that term). So I agree, we still need a C, but you've got to draft the best player available. Even if it means eventually trading a guy like Laine or Ehlers for the next Ryna Johansen etc.

 

[Sweech]

Is Dubois a C? I thought he played on the wings.

 

[truck]

I'm still left wondering, how much better does a winger have to be than a center to justify taking a winger. Especially if the center has potential to be a 200 foot guy like Dubois.

If you have great centers, it's an easy choice. But we don't. We are probably bottom five in the league at the most important position.

If the Jets are picking 2nd overall tomorrow, I'm having trouble not picking Dubois. Even if the Finns end up better at their position.

In the context of building a complete team, the 6'3 center that has the numbers, work ethic, play away from the puck, etc is exactly what we need.

There's no guarantee we will be in this high of a spot next year. There is a pretty high chance if we pick somewhere from 4-7 he is gone already, so it may be moot. Edmonton, Calgary, Buffalo don't really need another center so at least we have that going for us.

While I agree, Laine would be hard to pass up.

 

[truck]

Is Dubois a C? I thought he played on the wings.

He does, but I do wonder if he will get moved back.

 

[kylbaz]

I think Dubois is better than Puljujarvi.

Personally don't really care what I see from Puljujarvi. I really hope we don't get him. I like what I see in Laine, would like him here.

 

[Huffer]

With a top 3 pick I will be ecstatic to land Matthews or one of the Fins.

At 4 or 5, I'm getting pretty solid on the PLD train (still time though). I really liked him in the prospects game (one game I know), and if he can play next year in junior as a C, that would be great. Button raves about him, Hockey Prospect.com also has him at 4 and mentions how close to ready he is, but Button has the Jets taking Tkachuk.

I don't think I will be upset with Tkachuk at the end of the day if we're in that 5+ range, he just doesn't seem like a guy that makes this whole year worth it IMO. The points are great, I'm just concerned about how much of it is him.

A D would be nice, but I'm not sure if personally I wouldn't need to be around 7 to start to look at them (after the big 3, PLD, Tkachuk, Nylander). That's unless the scouts are convinced on Chychrun.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Dubois reminds me a lot of Couturier. I am not sure I would have been happy about picking Couturier 2nd overall

 

[ps241]

I'm still left wondering, how much better does a winger have to be than a center to justify taking a winger. Especially if the center has potential to be a 200 foot guy like Dubois.

If you have great centers, it's an easy choice. But we don't. We are probably bottom five in the league at the most important position.

If the Jets are picking 2nd overall tomorrow, I'm having trouble not picking Dubois. Even if the Finns end up better at their position.

In the context of building a complete team, the 6'3 center that has the numbers, work ethic, play away from the puck, etc is exactly what we need.

There's no guarantee we will be in this high of a spot next year. There is a pretty high chance if we pick somewhere from 4-7 he is gone already, so it may be moot. Edmonton, Calgary, Buffalo don't really need another center so at least we have that going for us.

Its a great question and one only TNSE can answer. How highly do they rank a kid like PLD compared to Laine or PoolParty? At the end of the day though you have to go BPA and if we are picking 2nd and they have Laine as the clearly better player you take it and run IMO. Patrick Kane, Jamie Benn, Kovy, Ovy, as much as I love centres and we need a #1 you can't pass up a better player especially if TNSE don't project PLD to be a franchise #1 centre.

It kind of sucks but it is what it is. Now if they have the Fins and PLD on a tier then who knows?

 

[Huffer]

Dubois reminds me a lot of Couturier. I am not sure I would have been happy about picking Couturier 2nd overall

I don't get to watch them in junior a lot so I will take your word for it if you do.

I just never thought of Couts as "dynamic" whereas I did when I watched PLD.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Dubois reminds me a lot of Couturier. I am not sure I would have been happy about picking Couturier 2nd overall

Could he have 1B upside, I wonder? Would two 1B's (Scheif and Dubois) be enough to offset not having an "elite" 1C?

Thinking about it another way: if we had Couturier and Scheifele splitting duties as 1B's (different deployments), would this be enough to move us into a position to compete with the big dogs?

Just ruminating...

 

[Aavco Cup]

Dubois reminds me a lot of Couturier. I am not sure I would have been happy about picking Couturier 2nd overall

Couts was expected to go much higher in his draft

 

[Joe Hallenback]

There was a lot of hype around Couturier during that draft year and he slid and I think in the end that was the right decision.

Do I want a solid 2 way center who will get 15/20 a year for 10 years? Sure I do. But do I want that at 2nd overall? Probably not.

I think you have to be careful when looking at pure numbers here. Does he get those points because he has elite hands and skill? Or is he getting it because he is physically dominating teenagers?

I think I have to be careful over falling in love with a guy and passing over guys who have a much higher skill set.

Saying that though I have Dubois at 5 in the draft. He is intriguing enough to take him there

 

[Huffer]

There was a lot of hype around Couturier during that draft year and he slid and I think in the end that was the right decision.

Do I want a solid 2 way center who will get 15/20 a year for 10 years? Sure I do. But do I want that at 2nd overall? Probably not.

I think you have to be careful when looking at pure numbers here. Does he get those points because he has elite hands and skill? Or is he getting it because he is physically dominating teenagers?

I think I have to be careful over falling in love with a guy and passing over guys who have a much higher skill set.

Saying that though I have Dubois at 5 in the draft. He is intriguing enough to take him there

Totally agree with this line of thinking Joe.

My understanding from reading about PLD (and limited viewings) was that he was succeeding from some very good to elite skills and not being bigger than his opponents (I could be wrong though). That is definitely something that scouts need to be sure on no doubt though.

It's probably why I'd personally be a little weary about a D man until around 7 (unless someone is very high on Chych). A guy like Nylander looks to have some elite skills as well.

 

[truck]

Totally agree with this line of thinking Joe.

My understanding from reading about PLD (and limited viewings) was that he was succeeding from some very good to elite skills and not being bigger than his opponents (I could be wrong though). That is definitely something that scouts need to be sure on no doubt though.

It's probably why I'd personally be a little weary about a D man until around 7 (unless someone is very high on Chych). A guy like Nylander looks to have some elite skills as well.

I am not blown away by Nylander.

I have him well below where I had Ehlers and Connor on their draft days for example. I don't think he would have been a top 10 pick in 2014 or 2015 - maybe on the fringe if the top 15. He isn't on his brother's level IMO.

 

[Grind]

So I decided to have a little look-see into some more depthy picks for the draft, focusing primarily on Dmen.

Now, I don't have a great big list yet, so i was just using who was listed on Elite Prospects CSS top 30 (which included a bunch of additional players)

So here are some guys i'm quite interested in off the hop

Samuel Girard - D - 5'11" - 1.05 PPG
why: Although undersized for a dman Girard is a scoring machinie. He's in his 17/yo season, and has put up over .5 PPG in both his 16 Y/O and is breaking 1.0 PPG this season. Now scoring isn't everything, but when you score this much, it could be seen to indicate that he has the raw tools to eventually become a successful pro in some capacity (I believe Garret or MoneyPuck did some research into this with any dman breaking the .5 PPG mark at any point during their junior career being significantly more likely to make the show then those who don't. Breaking it younger and more often is always better.)

Frederik Allard - D - 6'01" - .89 PPG
WHY Allard meets our criteria of good size and strong scoring, getting really close to the 1.0 PPG mark. The one black mark on Allard is that he's a late baby, so this is his 18 y/o season. Fortunately, while he didn't break .5 PPG in his 17 Y/o season, he came damn close.


Max Lajoi - D - 6'01" - .57 PPG
why: Like Allard, Lajoi has good size and decent scoring. Unfortuantely, he's also a late baby, playing in his 18, y/o season. The one thing Lajoi has that Allard doesn't though, is that Lajoi broke the .5 PPG mark in his 17 Y/o season. Allard and Lajoi are probably even for me though, given Allards higher production.


B]Cam Dineen[/B] - D - 5'11" - .93 Points per game
Why: Dineen is scoring at a pretty wicked pace in the OHL. He's young, so this is his 17 y/o season and he's performing real well (though i believe is considered to be a higher pick then some on this list). The only knocks on Dineen are that lack of data for his DY-1 season (no/very few games played), and his size (though i feel 2 inches shouldn't make a big difference, it seems to especially when it's the difference between 6'01 and 5'11)

Luke Green - D - 6'01" - .6 Points per game
Why: Green hits a number of my main criteria: He's got decent size (6'01"), he's not a late baby (his DY is his 17 y/o season), he's scoring at over .5 Points Per Game and to top it off, he scored at over .5 PPG in his 16 Y/O season.

I have no idea where he's expected to go, but I really like this guy. If we was available with our second first i'd probably be all over him.


Honorable Mention:

Lucas Johansen - D - 6'01" - .68 PPG
Why I have no idea where Johansen would be expected to go, but i'd be pretty ok with him with a later picks. Some of these players listed i'd be very happy with any of the jets first 3-4 picks, though Johansen wouldn't make that list for me. Why? Johansen has good size and has been scoring well. The problem is it's hia 18 y/o season, and he did not score well at all in his 17 Y/O season. I'd need to look more into where his scoring spike has come from to be more comfortable with Johansen. But if we has availble outside of the first 3 rounds, i'd probably be very ok with him.


I have some more info on some other dmen that i like as well, but these are the ones i though were most interesting. I purposely tried to mix in some that I'm not as high on rather then just doing my top 5.

if anyone has seen any of these players play I'd love to hear your thoughts (or if they happen to have better projections of where they're expected to go in the draft)

 

[Grind]

I was going to post this in the other post but forgot him, and figured he'd do ok on his own.

Pascal Laberge - C/RW - 6'01" - 1.25 PPG - ranked 29th by Futur Considerations
Why Laberg has been playing center which is always a big plus. He has decent size at over 6' tall, and has been scoring at real nice pace in the QMJHL. This is his 17 y/o season so there's no concerns there, and he had "decent" (though not impressive") scoring in his 16 Y/o season.

The real interesting part for me is his scouting report. Generally i'm extremely suspicious of players being heralded as "good two way guys" or "200 ft players" as this is often used to justify players who can't put the puck in the net (and they generally have low success rates).

Pascal Laberge's scouting page is filled with remarks about his 2 way game, tenacity on the back check, and ability to break up passes. That and the above being said, he also scores points.

When you have a guy with decent size, decent scoring, AND the "eye ball" test says he's not a run and gun one dimensional player, i think that's the sort of guy you can get excited for.

Depending on who we end up with at the top of the draft, with Laberg being ranked 29th overall by Future considerations, I would not be unhappy with him as our Chicago pick.

 

[Gm0ney]

Nice writeups, Grind. And every defenseman you listed shoots L, I believe...

 

[Duke749]

Yeh great write ups and a good read Grind.

Will be interesting to see who the Jets grab with their two firsts this year. Even if we pick 5th or 6th I'm confident we get a very good player.

 

[lanky]

Is it possible that Couurier would be a bigger scoring threat today if he had stayed in junior for two more years to work on his weaknesses?

 

[Duke749]

Is it possible that Couurier would be a bigger scoring threat today if he had stayed in junior for two more years to work on his weaknesses?

I personally don't think so. I also think a year would have been the max for him. He was borderline NHL ready after the draft. He sure as hell should have been good to go after one more year. Two would have me concerned.

 

[Grind]

Is it possible that Couurier would be a bigger scoring threat today if he had stayed in junior for two more years to work on his weaknesses?

His NHL usage is pretty extreme (or at least was up until last year).

He was getting very difficult matchups, getting burried in the d zone, and rocking posession while putting up very decent points per 60 min.

I'd argue he's probably already a bigger scoring threat then he appears to be due to the usage he's been given.

This might have changed this year, but I know over the last two years he was essentially being deployed in the same way a number 1 shut down dman usually gets used, though he was a center.

 

[Huffer]

I thought I read that Laberge has been playing more wing? He did have a very good Top Prospects game though.

http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2016-nhl-draft-hockeyprospect-com-february-top-60-rankings/

"ew to the top 30 this month is Pascal Laberge from the Victoriaville Tigres. Laberge has made a move to the wing and it’s helped his game. Edwards spoke about his conversation with HockeyProspect.com’s Montreal based scout, Jerome Berube, about Laberge. “Jerome told me, that going back to Laberge’s midget days, he never really liked him playing down the middle. In Jerome’s opinion, the move to the wing has made a positive difference for Pascal.” Laberge has been on fire since returning to league play following his strong performance at the Top Prospects game last month."

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm still left wondering, how much better does a winger have to be than a center to justify taking a winger. Especially if the center has potential to be a 200 foot guy like Dubois.

If you have great centers, it's an easy choice. But we don't. We are probably bottom five in the league at the most important position.

If the Jets are picking 2nd overall tomorrow, I'm having trouble not picking Dubois. Even if the Finns end up better at their position.

In the context of building a complete team, the 6'3 center that has the numbers, work ethic, play away from the puck, etc is exactly what we need.

There's no guarantee we will be in this high of a spot next year. There is a pretty high chance if we pick somewhere from 4-7 he is gone already, so it may be moot. Edmonton, Calgary, Buffalo don't really need another center so at least we have that going for us.

I would say the most important position is G.

I also think you are underrating the Jets at C. We have 1a, 1b with Little & Scheif though neither is an 'elite' 1C. Then we have Perreault, Lowry, Burmi and Copp.

That said we could certainly use an upgrade at 1C. If we have Bryan Little playing 3C in a couple of years C is a strength.

I think if we draft in the first 3 the choice makes itself. If we are 4 it gets tougher. Is PLD going to be that elite level 1C? Is one of the D going to develop into a true #1? If we are 6 or lower PLD may be gone and the D are definitely the way to go.