2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[garret9]

I can't understand any rationale for moving the only real shot this team has for a long term #1D. Buff will taper off within a few years, Toby too and Myers just isn't that good.

Trouba is already the 2nd best D man on this team and he'll probably take top spot (within two years) before they get back into the playoffs.

Heck why trade Trouba for equal LHD when he already plays the left side quite capably.

Over past two seasons, ZS adjusted Corsi:
Buff with Trouba 56% (incl some forward Buff), 56% this season
Buff with Enstrom 52% (incl some forward Buff), 53% this season
Myers with Trouba 53%
Myers with Enstrom 52%

 

[Grind]

I love Trouba. He's one of my favourite Jets. But I think trading him could turn us into a contender. If we got an equal value LHD for him, we'd be pretty scary. If we got a top 5 pick (plus) for him, we'd draft an lhd who might even be ready (I'm looking at Juolevi or Sergachaev more than Chychrun) next season.

Our right side has more talent than we can make use of and the left has an overworked aging Toby plus Chiarot and the black hole that is Stuart.

Unless maybe Ladd can get us that LHD (Eric Gelinas?) to play 2nd pair next season, I think Trouba is exactly who you want to move. Buff's our #1, Myers is a great 2nd pair, Trouba would fetch a better return than almost any player on our roster.

We have equal value left dman to Jacob trouba. His name is Jacob trouba.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I love Trouba. He's one of my favourite Jets. But I think trading him could turn us into a contender. If we got an equal value LHD for him, we'd be pretty scary. If we got a top 5 pick (plus) for him, we'd draft an lhd who might even be ready (I'm looking at Juolevi or Sergachaev more than Chychrun) next season.

Our right side has more talent than we can make use of and the left has an overworked aging Toby plus Chiarot and the black hole that is Stuart.

Unless maybe Ladd can get us that LHD (Eric Gelinas?) to play 2nd pair next season, I think Trouba is exactly who you want to move. Buff's our #1, Myers is a great 2nd pair, Trouba would fetch a better return than almost any player on our roster.

If Ladd brought us a LHD good enough to free up Trouba then I MIGHT trade Trouba. The return I would be looking for would be a 1C. Or if we get a LHD some other way good enough to free up Trouba its still 1C. If we get Pokka from Chicago for example Trouba can stay on the left side. Or we can trade Pokka for a lefty. But trading Trouba for a LHD isn't an improvement since he plays the left side pretty well and what are the chances of getting a LHD as good as Trouba.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Heck why trade Trouba for equal LHD when he already plays the left side quite capably.

Over past two seasons, ZS adjusted Corsi:
Buff with Trouba 56% (incl some forward Buff), 56% this season
Buff with Enstrom 52% (incl some forward Buff), 53% this season
Myers with Trouba 53%
Myers with Enstrom 52%

Capably, I agree. But isn't he a lot better than capable as an RD? If you can show me that LD Trouba = RD Trouba, then alright, sounds good, let's just roll like that.

I know you're about to ask me to look at the adj. Corsi above, but keep in mind that while Trouba has mostly settled into the L2 slot, in the first half of the season, we seemed to juggle that around quite a bit, and I know that Myers and Buff both had a stint in the position. Trouba + Myers is likely at least 70% LD Trouba, and even more so with Buff, but are there any stats for Trouba with Enstrom? I think that would give a clearer picture of how RD Trouba performs with a talented pairing-mate (that doesn't seem like a real word, does it?).

We have equal value left dman to Jacob trouba. His name is Jacob trouba.

Basically what I said above. Is LD Trouba as good as RD Trouba? I hope so, but if not, why not trade him for an LD who is as good at LD as Trouba is at RD?

If Ladd brought us a LHD good enough to free up Trouba then I MIGHT trade Trouba. The return I would be looking for would be a 1C. Or if we get a LHD some other way good enough to free up Trouba its still 1C. If we get Pokka from Chicago for example Trouba can stay on the left side. Or we can trade Pokka for a lefty. But trading Trouba for a LHD isn't an improvement since he plays the left side pretty well and what are the chances of getting a LHD as good as Trouba.

Ladd getting us an LHD would be fine too. I recommend Eric Gelinas. His warrior chart blows Myers out of the water and though he doesn't hit much, he's Pronger-sized. Buff might be just the guy to help him find his inner-beast. I can't remember exactly where I heard it (TSN, Sportsnet or the Ottawa Sun) but apparently Lamoriello is trying to get him in return for PA Parenteau, which would be the steal of the year IMHO.

Otherwise, maybe an LHD could be had from Anaheim? They've got Lindholm, Fowler, Despres up with the big club and Larsson and Theodore ready to break into the league. They certainly aren't the only team with an overage of LHD, either.

Overall, I guess my point is that we've got a kid who is almost fully developed into a 1st pairing (maybe even franchise) RHD, and we're playing him as 2LD. He's being under-utilized and will continue to be as long as we have Buff and Myers in the way on the right. So why not get a guy that can let Enstrom comfortably slide down into 2nd pairing over the next 2-3 seasons?

 

[Huffer]

Heck why trade Trouba for equal LHD when he already plays the left side quite capably.

Over past two seasons, ZS adjusted Corsi:
Buff with Trouba 56% (incl some forward Buff), 56% this season
Buff with Enstrom 52% (incl some forward Buff), 53% this season
Myers with Trouba 53%
Myers with Enstrom 52%

We have equal value left dman to Jacob trouba. His name is Jacob trouba.

Agreed. I don't know why some people are fixated on only having left handed D on the left and right handed D on the right. Would it be preferable in a perfect world? Maybe. IMO though the handedness is certainly no where near as important as the quality of the player.

 

[truck]

Agreed. I don't know why some people are fixated on only having left handed D on the left and right handed D on the right. Would it be preferable in a perfect world? Maybe. IMO though the handedness is certainly no where near as important as the quality of the player.

Additionally, a D man who can play either side is more of an asset.

 

[Grind]

Also, my primary concern with a Trouba trade, is the rarity of that quality of player.

GM's are historically bad at identifying what players are as valuable to a defense core as a guy like Trouba.

Therefore I have very little faith that any swap including him will actually bring a back a player of the same calibre, regardless of handedness and position.

 

[folix]

Trading a 21 year old dman who already plays at a 1st pairing level.........on his "off-side" for anything but a established 21 year old super star forward is beyond dumb.

Honestly if I was trading Trouba it would be a package deal with multiple addons from other teams. Lets say Edmonton, it would be RNH, their first, for our second and Postma/Chairot etc and say add in Joshua Winquist.

Trouba is an established number 1 pairing dman at 21 years old, those dont exactly come easily anywhere outside of fluking out on a top 5 draft pick usually.

 

[lanky]

What about...

Trade Ladd for 1st plus prospect this weekend

Tank

Draft Matthews if we win lottery

If we lose lottery trade Trouba for Draisaitl, trade late first plus Postma plus prospect(s) for Hamonic. Draft Chychrun.

 

[folix]

What about...

Trade Ladd for 1st plus prospect this weekend

Tank

Draft Matthews if we win lottery

If we lose lottery trade Trouba for Draisaitl, trade late first plus Postma plus prospect(s) for Hamonic. Draft Chychrun.

Trouba for Draisaitl straight up might be a bit of a leap of faith on our part. Big kid, good hands, scoring is there, good starting point, but giving up alot.

 

[Halfy]

What about...

Trade Ladd for 1st plus prospect this weekend

Tank

Draft Matthews if we win lottery

If we lose lottery trade Trouba for Draisaitl, trade late first plus Postma plus prospect(s) for Hamonic. Draft Chychrun.

won't get it done for Hamonic

 

[csk]

won't get it done for Hamonic

How much value do you think Hamonic has? A 1st Plus a good 5D plus a prospect should be more than enough for a good 3D

 

[Zhamnov10]

How much value do you think Hamonic has? A 1st Plus a good 5D plus a prospect should be more than enough for a good 3D

Hamonic is more of a 2D in my opinion and his contract only increases his value in today's cap world.He would be our second best D on the jets after Buff even if Trouba was still here.Trouba does have the upside to surpass Hamonic but he is not there yet.

 

[csk]

Hamonic is more of a 2D in my opinion and his contract only increases his value in today's cap world.He would be our second best D on the jets after Buff even if Trouba was still here.Trouba does have the upside to surpass Hamonic but he is not there yet.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, as I see Trouba as already better than Hamonic.

 

[tbcwpg]

How much value do you think Hamonic has? A 1st Plus a good 5D plus a prospect should be more than enough for a good 3D

Isles want someone who can replace Hamonic immediately, and while Postma is a defenceman, he doesn't replace Hamonic.

 

[csk]

Isles want someone who can replace Hamonic immediately, and while Postma is a defenceman, he doesn't replace Hamonic.

That's true, fit is just as important as value

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Capably, I agree. But isn't he a lot better than capable as an RD? If you can show me that LD Trouba = RD Trouba, then alright, sounds good, let's just roll like that.

I know you're about to ask me to look at the adj. Corsi above, but keep in mind that while Trouba has mostly settled into the L2 slot, in the first half of the season, we seemed to juggle that around quite a bit, and I know that Myers and Buff both had a stint in the position. Trouba + Myers is likely at least 70% LD Trouba, and even more so with Buff, but are there any stats for Trouba with Enstrom? I think that would give a clearer picture of how RD Trouba performs with a talented pairing-mate (that doesn't seem like a real word, does it?).



Basically what I said above. Is LD Trouba as good as RD Trouba? I hope so, but if not, why not trade him for an LD who is as good at LD as Trouba is at RD?


Ladd getting us an LHD would be fine too. I recommend Eric Gelinas. His warrior chart blows Myers out of the water and though he doesn't hit much, he's Pronger-sized. Buff might be just the guy to help him find his inner-beast. I can't remember exactly where I heard it (TSN, Sportsnet or the Ottawa Sun) but apparently Lamoriello is trying to get him in return for PA Parenteau, which would be the steal of the year IMHO.

Otherwise, maybe an LHD could be had from Anaheim? They've got Lindholm, Fowler, Despres up with the big club and Larsson and Theodore ready to break into the league. They certainly aren't the only team with an overage of LHD, either.

Overall, I guess my point is that we've got a kid who is almost fully developed into a 1st pairing (maybe even franchise) RHD, and we're playing him as 2LD. He's being under-utilized and will continue to be as long as we have Buff and Myers in the way on the right. So why not get a guy that can let Enstrom comfortably slide down into 2nd pairing over the next 2-3 seasons?

I wouldn't say Gelinas blows Myers out of the water. Warrrior charts are accumulated numbers. I can't find the description now. They are either 3 years or career. Either way Myers chart includes a lot of Buffalo time. Gelinas scores a little less and has better Corsis and shot influence totals. NJD are not in the Ladd sweepstakes AFAIK. They do need F so maybe we have prospects they would like. The fact Lamoriello wants him doesn't mean he's available. If he is does Lamoriello have the inside track?

I like Anaheim's prospects and Philly has some good LHD also.

I agree with your last paragraph. I think every D must give up at least some small increment of effectiveness playing their off side. I think that even applies to those who grew up that way. Just too often the stick is in the wrong place. The loss could be very small, tiny even, IDK. But there must be some.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Also, my primary concern with a Trouba trade, is the rarity of that quality of player.

GM's are historically bad at identifying what players are as valuable to a defense core as a guy like Trouba.

Therefore I have very little faith that any swap including him will actually bring a back a player of the same calibre, regardless of handedness and position.

That is my concern also. I would not be happy if he was traded for a left handed Hamonic clone.

It crossed my mind that Anaheim might do Trouba for Larsson + Montour but I dismissed the thought on the 'whoever gets the best player wins the trade' theory.

So I come back to the only thing I would trade Trouba for would be a 1C. Drai if Edmonton gets Mathews for example. Some people apparently think Trouba isn't worth that much. I suspect they just overvalue forwards because of points but if they are right I would add a bit. Trouble is I only do that if we have fixed our D. That is, picked up a LHD (or facsimile thereof) in another trade or the draft or .... wherever.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hamonic is more of a 2D in my opinion and his contract only increases his value in today's cap world.He would be our second best D on the jets after Buff even if Trouba was still here.Trouba does have the upside to surpass Hamonic but he is not there yet.

I disagree .... quite strongly on the bolded but also on your rating of Hamonic. He is on a good contract and he is a good player but he is a 2nd pairing D, so #3. I think you are failing to allow enough for the anchor Trouba hauls around. Doesn't Hamonic also have a concussion history?

 

[Grind]

I"m going to post something that is very important.

This shows which teams have made how many selections over the 10 year span.

It also shows how any g's the team has gotten from their selections (how "good" they've drafted")

the farther you are to the right, the higher you should be.

top left corner means low volume of picks, high success rates

bottom elft corner means low volume of picks, crappy success rates

top right corner means high volume of picks, high success rates

bottom right corner means high volume of picks, crappy success rates.


Obviously the jets position on here leaves much to be desired but that would be heavily influenced by the Atlanta days (as there would be only 2 jet drafts on this list)

what many folks "say" chevy is doing is what the teams in the top left corner are doing. We aren't stock piling picks yet are expecte dto be "out drafting" the opposition.

Teams that have done this the best over the past 10 years are:

Anaheim, Buffalo, NYR, and MTL.

you could maybe put CLB in that group as they have had VERY high breaks over the 100 game threshold, but did have an above average number of picks.

th thing to notice is look at the top right corner.

Chicago, LA, Nashville, Tampa, Washington and the NYI all cover this spot (mind you so do the perennial suckers of Edmonton and columubus, and the not-so illustrious Senators)

what's most interesting to me is the sheer volume of picks Chicago made over that span of time.

they routinely picked 2-3 more times per draft then the average team. That's a lot of picks. That's like making 10+ selections every year.


As for the talk about tanking and drafting. Many folks constantly say you can't take because "you have to be lucky" to be a chicago. To be able to Draft a JT or a Kane.

well... you also need to get Byfuglien, Keith, Seabrook, TT, Shaw, Saad, etc.

and how do you do that?

Based on who's in the top left it doesn't look like "smart drafting" is the best way to do it.


You do it through volume.

Make a lot of draft picks

Draft good players

Shuffel them around as need be

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I'd love to have Hamonic but not for Trouba and If i'm trading for Hamonic, I'm gonna have to move one of my RHD guys, I'd rather Trouba played RHD behind Buff right now instead of playing him on his off side.

I'd move Myers. Hamonic isn't really needed. He'd be nice to have but i wouldn't offer much for him at all. The only guy i'd offer is Myers and even then, i'd almost want NYI to add something cuz like i said, we don't need Hamonic.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd love to have Hamonic but not for Trouba and If i'm trading for Hamonic, I'm gonna have to move one of my RHD guys, I'd rather Trouba played RHD behind Buff right now instead of playing him on his off side.

I'd move Myers. Hamonic isn't really needed. He'd be nice to have but i wouldn't offer much for him at all. The only guy i'd offer is Myers and even then, i'd almost want NYI to add something cuz like i said, we don't need Hamonic.

I am just totally ignoring the Hamonic story (except when I see others trying to trade Trouba for him) for the time being because Snow apparently is not interested in accommodating him.

If we acquire another top 4 LD I would consider trading Trouba but only for a "franchise" player. An obvious target is Edmonton because they desperately need a player like Trouba and they have franchise level players that they could choose to trade. The one I want is Draisaitl. No one else works unless they are crazy enough to trade McD or Mathews. RNH was a 1st OA but he doesn't do it for me. He is a softer, less driven to succeed Scheifele. That is, he is a good 2C, not a good 1C. Not enough for Trouba.

Edmonton should do this regardless of where they draft this year, IMO. Their need is there and the value is there. But we only do it if we get that LD. I don't do it if we get Pokka unless he can play top 4 on the left side. He hasn't shown that he can play top 4 on the right side yet so I wouldn't rush into anything.

That's just me but I am not looking for ways to trade Trouba.

 

[csk]

I am just totally ignoring the Hamonic story (except when I see others trying to trade Trouba for him) for the time being because Snow apparently is not interested in accommodating him.

If we acquire another top 4 LD I would consider trading Trouba but only for a "franchise" player. An obvious target is Edmonton because they desperately need a player like Trouba and they have franchise level players that they could choose to trade. The one I want is Draisaitl. No one else works unless they are crazy enough to trade McD or Mathews. RNH was a 1st OA but he doesn't do it for me. He is a softer, less driven to succeed Scheifele. That is, he is a good 2C, not a good 1C. Not enough for Trouba.

Edmonton should do this regardless of where they draft this year, IMO. Their need is there and the value is there. But we only do it if we get that LD. I don't do it if we get Pokka unless he can play top 4 on the left side. He hasn't shown that he can play top 4 on the right side yet so I wouldn't rush into anything.

That's just me but I am not looking for ways to trade Trouba.

Nothing makes me happier than the fact that Schief is better than RNH

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Assuming jets get a top 7 and 28 overall. Any good late firsts in this draft? Maybe we trade up to get a number 3?

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Assuming jets get a top 7 and 28 overall. Any good late firsts in this draft? Maybe we trade up to get a number 3?

We'll probably snag another guy like Roslovic