2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Aavco Cup]

Why do you put Jets at 5? I get why Buffalo goes 3rd due to games played, but Jets are tied with Flames for 4th. I think Winnipeg wins tiebreaker right now because they have same point differential, but Calgary scored one more goal in their games between each other. Tiebreaker says you have to use 2nd home game for Calgary, but that won't happen til March 16. Am I missing something?

it's where the NHL site and the lottery simulator slot us. Calgary has a better GD now. Isn't that the next tie breaker after ROW?

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I think if Puli/Laine played in Canada people would be losing their minds over them, I would prefer Matthews but they are close, they have closed the gap substantially.

As for the next group, Chychrun is risky. Want nothing to do with Tkachuk but Keller, DuBois and Juolevi have a lot of intrigue.

But if they want to go off the board a bit its Sergachyev...he has a really dynamic quality to him...maybe they risk trading down bit and grab another asset.

In the later round I find some NCAA guys very interesting..Kunin, Thompson, McAvoy. Aspland looks good.

Picking up Benson in round 2..that would make it quite a haul.

The Jets rep at the draft table is strong now..if its Chychrun it won't stress me..

Winning the lottery would put as at an entirely new level..

 

[drumzan]

it's where the NHL site and the lottery simulator slot us. Calgary has a better GD now. Isn't that the next tie breaker after ROW?

Yes it's the next tiebreaker, but which site are you looking at for goal differential? NHL dot com and TSN both have the Jets and Flames with a -24 goal differential.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yes it's the next tiebreaker, but which site are you looking at for goal differential? NHL dot com and TSN both have the Jets and Flames with a -24 goal differential.

I'm on my Iphone so can't get it right now.

Nhl.com go to the team atats page. The one with the .pct column

 

[Daximus]

Our current picks would be 5th & 26th. I haven't paid much attention tho the bottom third of the projected first round. Who is the most interesting name(s) in the 22-30 range?

On the latest lists ( I kind of like to look at Pronman and Button because they tend to be unique plus the TSN consensus)

Pronman

5 Tkachuk
26 Krys

Button

5 Nylander
26 Benson

TSN Consensus

5 Chychrun
26 Laberge

If we are at 5 I'd like one of Chychrun or Dubious as at least one of them will be available at that spot.
At 26 there are a number of guys available that I like..
Logan Stanley
Tage Thompson
Dillon Dube
Logan Brown

 

[Gabe Kupari]

What about Jake Bean from Calgary i think? He seems like a guy that the Jets might like.

 

[drumzan]

I'm on my Iphone so can't get it right now.

Nhl.com go to the team atats page. The one with the .pct column

I still think Winnipeg is currently 4th based on tiebreakers. Kinda wonder if Calgary is being placed 4th on sites simply because of alphabet.

 

[Daximus]

What about Jake Bean from Calgary i think? He seems like a guy that the Jets might like.

He likely goes after Serg/Juolevi I think. Best WHL defencemen in the class by quite a bit.

 

[kylbaz]

4,5,6 are such smaller differences in the lottery, it doesn't really matter that much. It all comes down to luck. Even last place at 20% is not very good odds to get the overall pick. 9.5% or 7.5% is such a smaller difference it's jus going to come downt o luck.

 

[garret9]

I had a random rant on Bean today.

Guy has way more goals than last year but barely more assists.

If he's shooting ~3 shots per game, which is more than any other Q or O draft eligible D-man other than Chychrun, he'd need to be shooting at 12% for his goal production, which is more than all but like 3 or 4 Q/O draft eligible d-men.

I think he's good, but I think combination of sh% and weak W class is inflating his value.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I still think Winnipeg is currently 4th based on tiebreakers. Kinda wonder if Calgary is being placed 4th on sites simply because of alphabet.

I was actually more interested in the last third of the 1st round and who looks interesting. The extra first is kind of new.

 

[Daximus]

I was actually more interested in the last third of the 1st round and who looks interesting. The extra first is kind of new.

Actually a fair bit of high risk/high reward guys both on the small and big side on the back end of the first round.

 

[ps241]

I went over pretty much all the lists I could find and I didn't see Cam Dineen rated in the top 30 on any of the lists?? IMO he is criminally under rated and pending where our Chicago 1st is I would jump at grabbing him there and I would be over the moon if he fell to us in the 2nd round.

My guess is he will be a riser between now and draft day but I think he is an excellent young D man and I would take him over Bean in Calgary right now.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I went over pretty much all the lists I could find and I didn't see Cam Dineen rated in the top 30 on any of the lists?? IMO he is criminally under rated and pending where our Chicago 1st is I would jump at grabbing him there and I would be over the moon if he fell to us in the 2nd round.

My guess is he will be a riser between now and draft day but I think he is an excellent young D man and I would take him over Bean in Calgary right now.

So many gems to be found. Dineen is son of nhler?

guys with mono are always a good pick. Lowry and white are a few that come to mind. When u can't get out of bed it really impacts ur numbers.

Any other good diseases that could mask a players potential? Rickets, hep b, clap, black lung just a few.

 

[Daximus]

I went over pretty much all the lists I could find and I didn't see Cam Dineen rated in the top 30 on any of the lists?? IMO he is criminally under rated and pending where our Chicago 1st is I would jump at grabbing him there and I would be over the moon if he fell to us in the 2nd round.

My guess is he will be a riser between now and draft day but I think he is an excellent young D man and I would take him over Bean in Calgary right now.

There must be something that we don't know about... it is odd.

 

[garret9]

Top 10 CHL D-men in age/era/league adjusted points per game

Samuel Girard 0.97, 5'9
Jake Bean 0.96, 6'1
Cam Dineen 0.91, 5'11
Frederic Allard 0.78, 6'1
Mikhail Sergachev 0.76, 6'3
David Quenneville 0.74, 5'8
Jakob Chychrun 0.74, 6'2
Olli Juolevi 0.68, 6'2
Dawson Davidson 0.53, 5'11
Lucas Johansen 0.53, 6'1

 

[garret9]

Top 10 CHL Forwards in age/era/league adjusted points per game

Matthew Tkachuk 1.72, 6'1
Pierre-Luc Dubois 1.49, 6'3
Alex DeBrincat 1.46, 5'7
Vitalii Abramov 1.37, 5'9
Adam Mascherin 1.27, 5'9
Alexander Nylander 1.26, 6'0
Pascal Laberge 1.18, 6'1
Logan Brown 1.08, 6'6
Noah Gregor 1.04, 6'0
Taylor Raddysh 1.03, 6'2

 

[lanky]

"Like Provorov last year, and Sanheim the year prior, expect Dineen to be this year’s big riser in the rankings." - Peter Harling

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/02/midseason-mediascout-top-10-for-2016.html?m=1

 

[garret9]

Ehlers was 1.51 the year he was drafted, if someone wants context to those numbers.

 

[ps241]

Ehlers was 1.51 the year he was drafted, if someone wants context to those numbers.

Tkachuk is a late birthday on a stacked team although I am still pretty impressed. However, I am starting to warm up to the idea of Pierre-Luc Dubois as that sneaky "oh shucks we missed the lottery picks" but TNSE'd our way into a that missing Big #1 franchise Centre though.......am I wrong?

The Trouba-Ehlers-Connor value bump on steroids.

 

[garret9]

Tkachuk is a late birthday on a stacked team although I am still pretty impressed. However, I am starting to warm up to the idea of Pierre-Luc Dubois as that sneaky "oh shucks we missed the lottery picks" but TNSE'd our way into a that missing Big #1 franchise Centre though.......am I wrong?

The Trouba-Ehlers-Connor value bump on steroids.

Those numbers say Tkachuk is scoring well.
What they don't say is why. They aren't adjusted for his team (who are really good), his linemates (who are really good), and the fact that a lot of his production is secondary assists (which are more luck driven than goals or primary assists).

 

[Daximus]

Those numbers say Tkachuk is scoring well.
What they don't say is why. They aren't adjusted for his team (who are really good), his linemates (who are really good), and the fact that a lot of his production is secondary assists (which are more luck driven than goals or primary assists).

Yeah I'm not at all sold on Tkachuk as a top 5 pick in this draft at all.

 

[ps241]

Those numbers say Tkachuk is scoring well.
What they don't say is why. They aren't adjusted for his team (who are really good), his linemates (who are really good), and the fact that a lot of his production is secondary assists (which are more luck driven than goals or primary assists).

His numbers are staggering but I would choose Dubois if they were both available when we pick. My fear is TNSE seem to love their sons of NHL'ers.

Either way they both look "sure fire" but I would like the big Centre with the sky high ceiling.

 

[Jetabre]

Am very interested in PLD. Seems to be a complete package type. The only knock I can think of is he doesn't have elite speed, but still good skating for his size, and he apparently has a Scheifele calibre work ethic to work out any of the minor things that detract from his appeal.

He's also like ~6 months younger than Tkachuk..And yeah plays centre which I feel we could use more than another winger.

 

[garret9]

I'll do the same adjustments tomorrow on primary points for fun...

Personally one day I want to try and maximize predictive correlation with weighting G vs A1 vs A2.