Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[CornKicker]

You're using probably the best goaltender drafted in the last 15 years as your example for your argument though.

For every Price there are 3 others who fail miserably and prove picking a goaltender is very difficult.

I'm not advocating passing on drafting a goalie in the early rounds because we have Talbot. I am advocating it because the odds aren't really in your favor and they take forever to develop if they do.

I mean, all 2nd or 3rd round picks have a low % to be an impact player, but you tend to know what they are sooner than you do with a goalie.

We waited forever for Dubnyk to develop, and even then we made potentially the wrong decision (could be argued).

im not disagreeing with you im a believer in BPA always. if we have the 60+ pick and the best player available is a goalie i take him. I would not advocate going into a draft thinking we need 2 C's 2 RHds 1 LHD 3 wingers and a goalie.

 

[SDig14]

im not disagreeing with you im a believer in BPA always. if we have the 60+ pick and the best player available is a goalie i take him. I would not advocate going into a draft thinking we need 2 C's 2 RHds 1 LHD 3 wingers and a goalie.

Agreed.

We will likely find out though soon how much management likes Eetu, LB and Ellis. If they draft a goalie at 32 then they either think a guy like Hart is the clear BPA and a future #1 or they don't believe in what we have in the system.

 

[Hemsky4PM]

Agreed.

We will likely find out though soon how much management likes Eetu, LB and Ellis. If they draft a goalie at 32 then they either think a guy like Hart is the clear BPA and a future #1 or they don't believe in what we have in the system.

Or it means they think that a goalie is the best player available at that stage. Not to mention, when you draft a goalie you're doing it for 5-7 years down the line, not for immediate help.

Look how many goalies bust. And look at how many hit big. It's a lottery ticket to potentially land an impact player in the most important position on the ice.

 

[Lacaar]

Why is this point valid?

The GM is different, and most of the scouting staff (including the head scout) were all sacked before last year's draft.

These failures have gone back for decades. Over many a gm and many a scouting staff.

I think it's safer to assume they'll mess it up honestly.

Not what I want obviously but if this team has taught us anything about draft picks.
It's to lower your expectations.

The one draft pick we have on the team that has truly exceeded his draft expectations is apparently not much of a commodity around the league. Jordan Eberle.

I'll add Davidson to that last if he can play like he did last year again.

Other than that. I don't see a player on the team that we drafted who is clearly exceeding his draft expectations. Hell we traded away two players that may qualify.
Erik Gustafsson and Tobias Reider.

There's something that's been plaguing this team for a very long time. This team has been bottom 5 for years. I expect them to be bottom 5 next year.

All these nice players that I like. But it always turns out the same. They underachieve and fail to meet expectations. One good year followed by one bad. Up and down... never coming together as team to do anything worthwhile.

Can new management and coaching change it? God I hope so.
Has anything changed after 1 year. Nope... not a thing. We sucked balls.

 

[suddeninterest]

So here's a question. Would we like to have a player similar to or better than Ivan Provorov in our system? I would argue that Mikhail Sergachev is better than or at least equal to Provorov, especially in terms of offense. Don't let their raw draft year stats fool you. Here is my reasoning:

For the 2014-15 season, Provorov had points on 20.9% of his team's goals.
For the 2015-16 season, Sergachev had points on 22.5% of his team's goals.

I adjusted those numbers to be more fair to Provorov as I used only games in which both players actually participated. Provorov missed 12 games of the 2014-15 season so I subtracted the goals scored by Brandon during those games from their total goals for. Without this adjustment Provorov's point percentage is 17.9%. I also adjusted Sergachev's numbers for his 1 game missed, but they didn't change.

Now on top of the fact that Sergachev had a higher raw and adjusted points percentage, I also considered additional information in my opinion.

Prior to their draft years, Provorov had played for several years in North America before joining the Wheat Kings. Sergachev's draft year was his first year in North America. This gave Provorov a significant advantage right off the bat in their draft years in terms of language/communication, and overall adjustment to the difference in style between NA and Russia. It could be reasonably surmised that Provorov could be more effective because of this.

Secondly, Sergachev is 6 months younger than Provorov in their draft years which is a significant difference in development time at 17-18.

Sergachev has 2 inches and 20+ pounds on Provorov with better size and physicality.

Considering all of this, I would say that Sergachev may actually be a better prospect than Ivan Provorov, and I would have no problem whatsoever with the Oil selecting him at 4, as I'm reasonably sure that a strong argument could be made to select Provorov at 4 this year if he was available. I can easily see Sergachev being a 2nd pair NHL Dman by the end of his Draft +2 year, as Provorov is expected to be by the end of next season.

 

[BleedingOil]

I havent seen much of sergachev but if hes on par with provorov like you say it'll be tough to pass on him at 4

 

[BleedingOil]

im not disagreeing with you im a believer in BPA always. if we have the 60+ pick and the best player available is a goalie i take him. I would not advocate going into a draft thinking we need 2 C's 2 RHds 1 LHD 3 wingers and a goalie.

At that point most scouts at the table probably have a different BPA on there lists

 

[Zaddy]

I like Sergachyov a lot but he's not on the same level as Provorov. I would be shocked if he became a better NHLer than Provorov.

 

[Aceboogie]

So here's a question. Would we like to have a player similar to or better than Ivan Provorov in our system? I would argue that Mikhail Sergachev is better than or at least equal to Provorov, especially in terms of offense. Don't let their raw draft year stats fool you. Here is my reasoning:

For the 2014-15 season, Provorov had points on 20.9% of his team's goals.
For the 2015-16 season, Sergachev had points on 22.5% of his team's goals.

I adjusted those numbers to be more fair to Provorov as I used only games in which both players actually participated. Provorov missed 12 games of the 2014-15 season so I subtracted the goals scored by Brandon during those games from their total goals for. Without this adjustment Provorov's point percentage is 17.9%. I also adjusted Sergachev's numbers for his 1 game missed, but they didn't change.

Now on top of the fact that Sergachev had a higher raw and adjusted points percentage, I also considered additional information in my opinion.

Prior to their draft years, Provorov had played for several years in North America before joining the Wheat Kings. Sergachev's draft year was his first year in North America. This gave Provorov a significant advantage right off the bat in their draft years in terms of language/communication, and overall adjustment to the difference in style between NA and Russia. It could be reasonably surmised that Provorov could be more effective because of this.

Secondly, Sergachev is 6 months younger than Provorov in their draft years which is a significant difference in development time at 17-18.

Sergachev has 2 inches and 20+ pounds on Provorov with better size and physicality.

Considering all of this, I would say that Sergachev may actually be a better prospect than Ivan Provorov, and I would have no problem whatsoever with the Oil selecting him at 4, as I'm reasonably sure that a strong argument could be made to select Provorov at 4 this year if he was available. I can easily see Sergachev being a 2nd pair NHL Dman by the end of his Draft +2 year, as Provorov is expected to be by the end of next season.

Ive been wondering about this. Honestly cant say ive watched either one save for highlights. But from a pure stats POV Serg comes out ahead.

The big thing is that this was Sergs first season in NA and CHL. Provorov has years to adjust to culture/league/etc. I was reading something from the coach of Serg that he was rough in first 20 games of season learning the game but after he was dominant.

His points compared to past top 5 picked D are favourable too

Plus itd be amazing to have a prospect with the nickname Serg Knight to add to Dr. Drai

 

[CdnFan]

I havent seen much of sergachev but if hes on par with provorov like you say it'll be tough to pass on him at 4

Would make more sense to swap spots with Calgary if Chia decides he's going to draft a defenseman.

#6 would most likely (99%) give him first pick of Defensemen, while likely adding either a very good prospect or a 2nd rounder+.

 

[McDNicks17]

Ive been wondering about this. Honestly cant say ive watched either one save for highlights. But from a pure stats POV Serg comes out ahead.

The big thing is that this was Sergs first season in NA and CHL. Provorov has years to adjust to culture/league/etc. I was reading something from the coach of Serg that he was rough in first 20 games of season learning the game but after he was dominant.

His points compared to past top 5 picked D are favourable too

Plus itd be amazing to have a prospect with the nickname Serg Knight to add to Dr. Drai

He had a really steep developmental curve this season.

One of of those guys that just kept getting better and better.

 

[Aceboogie]

He had a really steep developmental curve this season.

One of of those guys that just kept getting better and better.

I wouldnt pick him at 4, but if we dealt down hes 1st D id pick

I love D with big offensive upside. I think you can teach defense to a good degree. But offensive instincts are almost impossible to grow

 

[BleedingOil]

Youngest ever to win OHL D of year

 

[Aerchon]

I find it bizarre that Serg is generally ranked much lower than his profile would suggest.

Looking at most scouting services and various draft lists he would be a massive reach at #4. Is not even considered the best defenceman in this draft.

I personally think he would be a reach at 4 but his draft profile is clearly the best of the bunch in this year's draft imo.

Is it the Russian factor? Bad attitude?

 

[suddeninterest]

I like Sergachyov a lot but he's not on the same level as Provorov. I would be shocked if he became a better NHLer than Provorov.

I concede that Provorov probably has a higher overall hockey IQ. This isn't to say that Sergs is low because it's definitely not, more that Provorovs is elite. I look at it in the sense that Serg would be like Subban, and Prov like Suter. Both excellent, and good-great offensively but Suter may be a stronger "overall" or "safer" player.

I agree with McDNicks that his development curve is impressive. Love to see that in a prospect, that kind of rapid improvement at this age.

 

[Fourier]

I find it bizarre that Serg is generally ranked much lower than his profile would suggest.

Looking at most scouting services and various draft lists he would be a massive reach at #4. Is not even considered the best defenceman in this draft.

I personally think he would be a reach at 4 but his draft profile is clearly the best of the bunch in this year's draft imo.

Is it the Russian factor? Bad attitude?

I've never heard anything negative about Sergachev's attitude. In fact I'd say he has really impressed people with how mature he is despite his age. He worked very hard to learn English and had to very come a lot of barriers to make himself comfortable in the OHL. He also played his heart out in the playoff series vs the Rangers. He certainly was a leader on the ice.

 

[Hockey Nightmare]

Dubois vs Tkachuk nhl.com https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-pierre-luc-dubois-vs-matthew-tkachuk/c-280963710

 

[Tarus]

I find it bizarre that Serg is generally ranked much lower than his profile would suggest.

Looking at most scouting services and various draft lists he would be a massive reach at #4. Is not even considered the best defenceman in this draft.

I personally think he would be a reach at 4 but his draft profile is clearly the best of the bunch in this year's draft imo.

Is it the Russian factor? Bad attitude?

Just means that the scouts like other players more, there doesn't have to be anything negative there.

 

[Nugey McNugeson]

Say the oilers can't find a suitable trade to move down picks, how much of a stretch would it be to take sergachev at #4?

 

[suddeninterest]

Say the oilers can't find a suitable trade to move down picks, how much of a stretch would it be to take sergachev at #4?

Not as big a reach as people make it out to be. The point of my earlier post was that there are many saying (especially on the mains) that there in no comparison between this year's Dmen and last year or 2012. IMO this is not true, especially offensively which is the most important part of a defensemans game at that age.

 

[thadd]

Well it sounds like Vegas is on for sure so I really don't see us trading our 1st rounder now.
I REALLY hope that we go for a d-man but if we don't I'm pretty sure I'll still be very happy with whom we draft.
I don't care if we don't need left handed d-men. In the long run it will be a blessing to be so overloaded with left handed d-men. If Reinhart, Nurse, Klefbom, Davidson and 2 of Bear, Simpson and Jones and make it as solid NHL players we'll be dealing from a position of strength in the future.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Well it sounds like Vegas is on for sure so I really don't see us trading our 1st rounder now.
I REALLY hope that we go for a d-man but if we don't I'm pretty sure I'll still be very happy with whom we draft.
I don't care if we don't need left handed d-men. In the long run it will be a blessing to be so overloaded with left handed d-men. If Reinhart, Nurse, Klefbom, Davidson and 2 of Bear, Simpson and Jones and make it as solid NHL players we'll be dealing from a position of strength in the future.

I don't see it either.

RNH or Eberle for defence. Sign another free agent defenceman - Hamhuis, Goligoski, Yandle, Campbell, I'd take any of them. Would allow us some flexibility.

 

[gordonhught]

Say the oilers can't find a suitable trade to move down picks, how much of a stretch would it be to take sergachev at #4?

not any bigger reach than when H Lindholm was taken by Anaheim at 6

 

[Aceboogie]

not any bigger reach than when H Lindholm was taken by Anaheim at 6

Only consensus guy they picked over was forsberg

 

[Aerchon]

Dubois vs Tkachuk nhl.com https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-pierre-luc-dubois-vs-matthew-tkachuk/c-280963710

Makes me hope we take Dubios. Never really got off that line of thinking but Tkachuk really got in peoples head with a great memorial cup run.

They are similar players with Dubious bring bigger, stronger, and faster... Tkachuk probably won't be Gagner 2.0 but we may be regretting not taking Dubois and letting a divisional rival scoop the superior player.