Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[Raab]

Just what we need, another left hand D prospect.

How many of our LHD are under 20 right now? We actually have more forwards under 20 if I'm not mistaken. And none of our LHD have the offence of Sergachev.

 

[Aceboogie]

How many of our LHD are under 20 right now? We actually have more forwards under 20 if I'm not mistaken. And none of our LHD have the offence of Sergachev.

LHD not in pro (AHL/NHL):
Jones, Paigin, Lagesson

Forwards:
Uh Evan Campbell? Tyler Vesel? guys in NCAA that suck and wont be signed

 

[Halibut]

This pick kinda needs to pan out for us because we basically blew the Yakupov draft year by getting zilch effectively out of him.

Yeah it sucks that we came up empty at that draft but it happens. I dont think it makes this one do or die, especially if we are drafting a forward. Whatever forward we take will be a complementary piece, maybe part of the core but not irreplacable. If we were getting a for sure #1 d-man out of the draft like Ekblad or even Hedman a few years back then the draft would be very important for us. As it is the draft is secondary to what we do in terms of trades and free agency.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

You gotta think that either Tkachuk goes back to juniors or Pouliot is traded if he makes the club.

Hall
Tkachuk
Pouliot
Maroon
Hendricks

Something would have to give there.

If only Yak was panning out and they could get a keeper at 32.

LW; Hall, Tkachuk, Caggiula
C; McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH
RW; Yakupov, Eberle, Bastian

thats some crazy depth.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I think the pick will either be traded, or we will draft either Tkachuk or Sergachev. That's it.

Yeah in my head the odds are

60% take Tkachuk at 4
25% move down with the intention of picking Sergachev with Chychrun as a plan B
15% take Sergachev at 4

 

[Raab]

LHD not in pro (AHL/NHL):
Jones, Paigin, Lagesson

Forwards:
Uh Evan Campbell? Tyler Vesel? guys in NCAA that suck and wont be signed

Mcdavid, Draisaitl?

 

[redgrant]

What exactly has dubois done to fall so much on these boards? 8 don't watch junior much but seems like he was the flavor of the month at draft now no one wants him.

 

[Raab]

LHD not in pro (AHL/NHL):
Jones, Paigin, Lagesson

Forwards:
Uh Evan Campbell? Tyler Vesel? guys in NCAA that suck and wont be signed

Why does it have to be non pro's? Its a fact our young forward core is WAY stronger then our young defence core.

 

[Raab]

What exactly has dubois done to fall so much on these boards? 8 don't watch junior much but seems like he was the flavor of the month at draft now no one wants him.

People were just reading scouting reports. A bunch of guys who have actually watched him weren't that high on him or at least I wasn't.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

What exactly has dubois done to fall so much on these boards? 8 don't watch junior much but seems like he was the flavor of the month at draft now no one wants him.

I'm still on Team Dubois. Better two way game, better goal scorer, bigger, better skater, didn't have the benefit of elite linemates, more versatile.

But Tkachuk's gritty, so...

 

[Faelko]

I'm still on Team Dubois. Better two way game, better goal scorer, bigger, better skater, didn't have the benefit of elite linemates, more versatile.

But Tkachuk's gritty, so...

From what I'm reading we're going to be fortunate to land either one.

 

[Aceboogie]

Why does it have to be non pro's? Its a fact our young forward core is WAY stronger then our young defence core.

Because thats where our help is coming. You said we had more forwards under 20. The only U20 forward we have is McDavid, and then some NCAA scrubs

As for Sergachev comment- Bear outscored him, Jones was right around his numbers, Paigin had higher NHLe

Forward pipeline is bone dry

 

[Zaddy]

People were just reading scouting reports. A bunch of guys who have actually watched him weren't that high on him or at least I wasn't.

Like who?

 

[Soli]

Would be unwise to take Hart with the 32nd (assuming Benson isn't available)?

I don't like taking goalies that high. That being said, there's connections. Someone had mentioned this earlier but I don't think they were able to produce a link. Guy to the rescue.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I'm still on Team Dubois. Better two way game, better goal scorer, bigger, better skater, didn't have the benefit of elite linemates, more versatile.

But Tkachuk's gritty, so...

I get that Tkachuk's numbers are a bit inflated due to his linemates (both in the OHL and at the WJC), but he keeps getting those opportunities for a reason - he meshes well with guys who want the puck a lot and has a great understanding and acceptance of what role he has to play to compliment his linemates.

I like Dubois a lot too, considered myself in the Dubois camp before the Memorial Cup, but Tkachuk just looks like (potentially) the perfect compliment to McDavid. I know McDavid makes everyone look good, but where could his game go if he plays with guys that can make him look good vs carrying his linemates?

 

[nexttothemoon]

I get that Tkachuk's numbers are a bit inflated due to his linemates (both in the OHL and at the WJC), but he keeps getting those opportunities for a reason - he meshes well with guys who want the puck a lot and has a great understanding and acceptance of what role he has to play to compliment his linemates.

I like Dubois a lot too, considered myself in the Dubois camp before the Memorial Cup, but Tkachuk just looks like (potentially) the perfect compliment to McDavid. I know McDavid makes everyone look good, but where could his game go if he plays with guys that can make him look good vs carrying his linemates?

I think it's being overblown that being on a good team should necessarily cause a prospect to be downgraded. A player that lights it up and plays on a good team/line IS part of the reason that team/line does so well.

You can argue up and down whether a player is a driver or if he's complimentary but in the end it's close to impossible to make that evaluation in terms of whether or not that will translate at the NHL level.

Some players do... and some don't and if there was a perfect crystal ball method of finding that correlation... well then scouts and GM's would never make a mistake and pick busts in the first couple rounds... but they always do and always will when dealing with teenagers and all the vagaries of how they all develop once they hit the NHL level.

Swap Dubois and Tkachuk around on their respective junior teams and maybe they would have similar numbers... and maybe they wouldn't... BUT all that matters is how they will perform in the NHL 2-5 years from now... and NO ONE knows how that will actually turn out.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I don't like taking goalies that high. That being said, there's connections. Someone had mentioned this earlier but I don't think they were able to produce a link. Guy to the rescue.

I'm not a BIG fan of picking Hart at 32, but the kid is a very good goalie. We could - and to put it completely bluntly, have - done a lot worse with a high 2nd.

We interviewed Hart, yes? I wouldn't be surprised if we drafted Hart and Sambrook.

 

[lakai17]

I don't like taking goalies that high. That being said, there's connections. Someone had mentioned this earlier but I don't think they were able to produce a link. Guy to the rescue.

I am high on Hart. CHL goaltender of the year. Nothing but composure.

 

[LTIR]

Could he fall to one of our picks in 3rd?

 

[lakai17]

Why no talk on Tage Thompson or Max Jones here?

These guys have size and have potential to be top 6 wingers. Thompson will have to convert to wing here of course.

They may become late first rounders(I understand where we draft) but this team could use some size on the wing that can contribute. The ideal project wingers you can develop in Bakersfield.

 

[SDig14]

By my count, out of the 30 starting goalies in the NHL, 11 of them were drafted by the team they currently play for right now. The other 19 were either signed as free agents or traded for by their current team.

Of the 11 guys, I counted 6 drafted in the top 2 rounds (3 in the 1st and 3 in the 2nd).

There were also 3 pretty solid gems (Holtby in round 4, Lundqvist in round 7 and Rinne in round 8).

 

[SDig14]

Drafting a goalie high seems like a luxury when you have a pretty stocked cupboard of prospects, which we do not have currently.

And when you're desperate for a goalie, you can likely get one for a 2nd round pick anyways, i.e. Andersen (pending this year), Bishop, Talbot, Halak, Bobrovsky, etc.

 

[Beerfish]

Drafting a goalie high seems like a luxury when you have a pretty stocked cupboard of prospects, which we do not have currently.

And when you're desperate for a goalie, you can likely get one for a 2nd round pick anyways, i.e. Andersen (pending this year), Bishop, Talbot, Halak, Bobrovsky, etc.

Goalie is the the most important position on a team other than a true franchise player like a mcdavid. In my opinion you should never make plans based on good fortune of other teams or yourself and getting really good starters later is good fortune.

As I said before considering what this team has done with it's 2nd rounders over the years taking the top goalie prospect would be a good move. We gave up 16 and 33 to get a bottom end D player last year. I'd be very happy to get a top goalie prospect in the 2nd round.

 

[SDig14]

Goalie is the the most important position on a team other than a true franchise player like a mcdavid. In my opinion you should never make plans based on good fortune of other teams or yourself and getting really good starters later is good fortune.

As I said before considering what this team has done with it's 2nd rounders over the years taking the top goalie prospect would be a good move. We gave up 16 and 33 to get a bottom end D player last year. I'd be very happy to get a top goalie prospect in the 2nd round.

But you don't draft a goalie because we made what looks like a potentially horrible trade at this point.

And you don't draft a goalie because past scouting staff kept missing on 2nd round picks either.

If you think the goalie is the BPA, go ahead I suppose, but the price to acquire them in a trade tends to be less than top pairing D or top 6 centres.

 

[SDig14]

I took a look at a 10 year period of goalies taken in the top 32 picks of the draft. I decided to look at 10 years from 2003 to 2012. I did not want to look at the last 3-4 years since these goalies usually take 5+ years to develop.

I counted 21 total goalies taken in this time.

Only 6/21 are starters in the NHL, the remaining 15 are either busts or back-ups. Basically the entire group minus Vasilevsky will never be a starer in the NHL either.

Out of the 6 bonafide starters, 4/6 have already been traded (Varlamov, Rask, Dubnyk and Scheider).

The 2 that have not been dealt are Price and Fleury, and this group may be down to 1 in a year when expansion may force the Pens to deal Fleury.