Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[BarDownBobo]

Why no talk on Tage Thompson or Max Jones here?

These guys have size and have potential to be top 6 wingers. Thompson will have to convert to wing here of course.

They may become late first rounders(I understand where we draft) but this team could use some size on the wing that can contribute. The ideal project wingers you can develop in Bakersfield.

I think everyone expects those two to be picked in the 20-25 range. If Max Jones is there at 32 it's a no brainer to pick him.

 

[Beerfish]

I took a look at a 10 year period of goalies taken in the top 32 picks of the draft. I decided to look at 10 years from 2003 to 2012. I did not want to look at the last 3-4 years since these goalies usually take 5+ years to develop.

I counted 21 total goalies taken in this time.

Only 6/21 are starters in the NHL, the remaining 15 are either busts or back-ups. Basically the entire group minus Vasilevsky will never be a starer in the NHL either.

Out of the 6 bonafide starters, 4/6 have already been traded (Varlamov, Rask, Dubnyk and Scheider).

The 2 that have not been dealt are Price and Fleury, and this group may be down to 1 in a year when expansion may force the Pens to deal Fleury.

And the teams who drafted those goalies are not at all sad they did draft them.

 

[SDig14]

And the teams who drafted those goalies are not at all sad they did draft them.

They seem to be the exceptions to the rule though.

One thing we likely agree on is for the last 6 years with all the terrible finishes, we have been veeeery poor at drafting high in the 2nd round.

Musil, Pitlick, Moroz, Lander, Roy, etc.

We need to either start hitting on some of these picks or trade them for quality NHLers. To date we seem to fail at both approaches.

 

[Beerfish]

They seem to be the exceptions to the rule though.

One thing we likely agree on is for the last 6 years with all the terrible finishes, we have been veeeery poor at drafting high in the 2nd round.

Musil, Pitlick, Moroz, Lander, Roy, etc.

We need to either start hitting on some of these picks or trade them for quality NHLers. To date we seem to fail at both approaches.

Agreed and to me that is the number one reason whey the oilers have failed badly over the years. Not because our 1st rounders have had tough times but because we have utterly failed to add any top notch players just by draft numbers alone from below round one and we have failed to add bottom six players to the same extent. All of this with a huge advantage of picking high in every round. Davidson is such a pleasant surprise becasue he is such a rarity.

Awful drafting followed by poor planning and a terrible affinity for one junior team and just heinous development of players. I've dislike a number of our picks right off the hop, hated plante, hated musil hated moroz picks but there were also guys I thought were good picks (Hamilton, Ewanyk, Chase)

 

[MinimaMoralia]

Why no talk on Tage Thompson or Max Jones here?

These guys have size and have potential to be top 6 wingers. Thompson will have to convert to wing here of course.

They may become late first rounders(I understand where we draft) but this team could use some size on the wing that can contribute. The ideal project wingers you can develop in Bakersfield.

It would be great to grab either one with the second pick if they make it past the first round.
I really dig Jones and his playing style. Adding guys like Cagguila and Jones really helps round out a teams bottom nine. Character players with heart. Contending teams are full of such figures.
Thompson seems more like a long-term project, but he can play right wing, and he was a powerplay beast this season. He could have great upside, especially since the Oilers have the center depth to afford him time to develop properly. Not a bad guy to have in the system.

I find it interesting that there are a lot of big bodies in the projected first round this year, and most of them are reputed to be strong skaters, or at least not cement-footed coke-machines. Good to see.

 

[belair]

If Max Jones falls to 32, you worry about why he fell that low, but you probably still take him. But my personal thoughts on 32 is you should take a skill guy here. The focus on size/toughness happened with previous early 2nd round picks. Pitlick, Musil, Moroz...

If Alex Debrincat is there at 32, you take him. If he isn't, I think Cam Dineen is a nice gamble.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

If Max Jones falls to 32, you worry about why he fell that low, but you probably still take him. But my personal thoughts on 32 is you should take a skill guy here. The focus on size/toughness happened with previous early 2nd round picks. Pitlick, Musil, Moroz...

If Alex Debrincat is there at 32, you take him. If he isn't, I think Cam Dineen is a nice gamble.

yeah I don't mind those picks.

I'd add Rubtsov as a candidate for a match-up center. Abramov/Dahlen/Mascherin for a top scorer.

Then Benson/Bastian/Jones types...I guess.

I agree though...if you take a defender at 32....make it Dineen.

 

[lakai17]

Lucas Johansen.

Bloodlines, bloodlines, bloodlines.

 

[Aceboogie]

I think Nick Ellis makes it possible to avoid picking a goalie in first 4 rounds. Hes only 22 and only really 1 year of starting in NCAA. So when he goes to ECHL next year hell probably be there 1-2 years before going to AHL

You pick a CHL goalie this year and in 2 years then are also joining AHL. So a mini log jam

Id pick a USHL goalie in 4th round and let him play 1 year in USHL and 4 in NCAA and be ready for pro in 4/5 years. By that time well have selected the top goalie from Eeetu/LB/Ellis or new signing and will need one in AHL

 

[ChaoticOrange]

If Max Jones falls to 32, you worry about why he fell that low, but you probably still take him. But my personal thoughts on 32 is you should take a skill guy here. The focus on size/toughness happened with previous early 2nd round picks. Pitlick, Musil, Moroz...

If Alex Debrincat is there at 32, you take him. If he isn't, I think Cam Dineen is a nice gamble.

Yet another reason that I'm far higher on Dubois at 4. Some pretty nice wingers should be available around 32 - Benson, DeBrincat, Laberge, Bastien, Katchouk, Raddysh, and that's without counting possible fallers.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I think Nick Ellis makes it possible to avoid picking a goalie in first 4 rounds. Hes only 22 and only really 1 year of starting in NCAA. So when he goes to ECHL next year hell probably be there 1-2 years before going to AHL

You pick a CHL goalie this year and in 2 years then are also joining AHL. So a mini log jam

Id pick a USHL goalie in 4th round and let him play 1 year in USHL and 4 in NCAA and be ready for pro in 4/5 years. By that time well have selected the top goalie from Eeetu/LB/Ellis or new signing and will need one in AHL

I think Ellis and Eetu should have a pretty good battle for the second AHL spot.

 

[40oz]

Lucas Johansen.

Bloodlines, bloodlines, bloodlines.

If that's the case, I'd trade up for Julien Gauthier.

 

[McDNicks17]

Lucas Johansen.

Bloodlines, bloodlines, bloodlines.

It's almost hard to pick someone without bloodlines in this draft.

Lots of guys out there that will make you feel old.

 

[nabob]

I think Nick Ellis makes it possible to avoid picking a goalie in first 4 rounds. Hes only 22 and only really 1 year of starting in NCAA. So when he goes to ECHL next year hell probably be there 1-2 years before going to AHL

You pick a CHL goalie this year and in 2 years then are also joining AHL. So a mini log jam

Id pick a USHL goalie in 4th round and let him play 1 year in USHL and 4 in NCAA and be ready for pro in 4/5 years. By that time well have selected the top goalie from Eeetu/LB/Ellis or new signing and will need one in AHL

Why draft that guy at all in the 4th round when it's very likely that two or three years later you can sign NCAA goalie who will probably be one of the best in the NCAA for free?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Why draft that guy at all in the 4th round when it's very likely that two or three years later you can sign NCAA goalie who will probably be one of the best in the NCAA for free?

Great point. If we're drafting a goalie I'd much rather take one going the junior or overseas route.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Svoboda

 

[lakai17]

Eetu goes right under the radar here. He looks good in net.

I called Davidson break out before last season started.

I expect more of a good breakout season in Bakersfield for Eetu. He may get called up, he may.

 

[dustrock]

If Max Jones falls to 32, you worry about why he fell that low, but you probably still take him. But my personal thoughts on 32 is you should take a skill guy here. The focus on size/toughness happened with previous early 2nd round picks. Pitlick, Musil, Moroz...

If Alex Debrincat is there at 32, you take him. If he isn't, I think Cam Dineen is a nice gamble.

Got a lotta time for Dineen. Doubt he's there at 32 but no brainer if he is.

 

[bucks_oil]

And the teams who drafted those goalies are not at all sad they did draft them.

Aren't we sad we drafted Dubnyk?

I mean the inability to predict when a guy will figure it out is EXACTLY why you don't pick them.... 95% of this board wanted Dubnyk gone a full season before we actually traded him... So don't cry MacT.

 

[vincent1999]

Goaltender

By my count, out of the 30 starting goalies in the NHL, 11 of them were drafted by the team they currently play for right now. The other 19 were either signed as free agents or traded for by their current team.

Of the 11 guys, I counted 6 drafted in the top 2 rounds (3 in the 1st and 3 in the 2nd).

There were also 3 pretty solid gems (Holtby in round 4, Lundqvist in round 7 and Rinne in round 8).

picking and getting a goaltender takes time and patience, and some luck. But, it's a worthwhile exercise for teams with quality management.

Drafting a goaltender in the first three rounds is a way to get a starting goaltender in 6- 10 years, or, pick up goaltenders that are developing who were selected in the first three rounds, or other rounds if applicable, of the draft years 2007 to 2011 ie as Talbot was.

Starting NHL goaltenders
Total number 37- 30 teams plus 7 teams with a tandem (DAL, STL, ANH, NYI, PHI, DET, TB)
Number selected in each draft round-
1st round- 11 (Price, Luongo, Fleury, Dubynk, Rask, Varlamov, Schneider, Lehtonen, Ward, Bernier, Vasilevskiy)
2nd round- 7 (Crawford, Allen, Gibson, Neuwirth, Pavelec, Howard, Lehner)
3rd round- 6 (Quick, Bishop, Anderson, C., Mason, Greiss, Andersen, F.)
4th round- 1 (Holtby)
5th round- 3 (Mrazek, Miller, Smith)
6th round- 1 (Ramo)
7th, 8th, 9th round- 4 (Lundqvist, Rinne, Elliott, Halak)
Undrafted- 4 (Jones, M., Niemi, Talbot, Bobrovsky)

65% of starting goaltenders are drafted in the first 3 rounds, and 50% of the starters are drafted in the first two rounds.

Starting goaltenders by draft year-
1997- Luongo 1st
1999- Miller 3rd
2000- Lundqvist 8th
2001- Anderson, C 3rd, Smith 5th
2002- Lehtonen 1st, Ward 1st
2003- Fleury 1st, Niemi X, Elliott 9th, Halak 9th, Crawford 2nd, Howard 2nd
2004- Rinne 8th, Dubnyk 1st, Schneider 1st, Greiss 3rd, Ramo 6th
2005- Quick 3rd, Bishop 3rd, Rask 1st, Pavelec 2nd, Price 1st
2006- Varlamov 1st, Mason 3rd, Neuwirth 2nd, Bobrovsky X, Bernier 1st
2007- Talbot X
2008- Holtby 4th, Allen 2nd
2009- Jones X, Lehner 2nd
2010- Mrazek 5th
2011- Gibson 2nd
2012- Andersen, F. 3rd, Vasilevskiy 1st

 

[Bangers]

They seem to be the exceptions to the rule though.

One thing we likely agree on is for the last 6 years with all the terrible finishes, we have been veeeery poor at drafting high in the 2nd round.

Musil, Pitlick, Moroz, Lander, Roy, etc.

We need to either start hitting on some of these picks or trade them for quality NHLers. To date we seem to fail at both approaches.

Why is this point valid?

The GM is different, and most of the scouting staff (including the head scout) were all sacked before last year's draft.

 

[Beerfish]

Aren't we sad we drafted Dubnyk?

I mean the inability to predict when a guy will figure it out is EXACTLY why you don't pick them.... 95% of this board wanted Dubnyk gone a full season before we actually traded him... So don't cry MacT.

We drafted Dubnyk in the 1st round and he has turned out to be a starting goalie in this league, a vezina nominee as a matter of act. Just because the oilers stink at player evals and development doesn''t mean you ignore a position.

with what I'm hearing why draft any goalies ever? You can just sign them when needed.

Glen Sather was indeed stupid for drafting Grant Fuhr.

 

[CornKicker]

We drafted Dubnyk in the 1st round and he has turned out to be a starting goalie in this league, a vezina nominee as a matter of act. Just because the oilers stink at player evals and development doesn''t mean you ignore a position.

with what I'm hearing why draft any goalies ever? You can just sign them when needed.

Glen Sather was indeed stupid for drafting Grant Fuhr.

montreal was stupid for drafting price when they had jose theodore too.......ignoring the fact that the 2 years Price ogt hurt montreal missed the playoffs...

 

[Halibut]

We drafted Dubnyk in the 1st round and he has turned out to be a starting goalie in this league, a vezina nominee as a matter of act. Just because the oilers stink at player evals and development doesn''t mean you ignore a position.

with what I'm hearing why draft any goalies ever? You can just sign them when needed.

Glen Sather was indeed stupid for drafting Grant Fuhr.

You might be joking but this is probably a valid strategy. Every year there are good goaltenders available in free agency or in trade because a team has two and is about to lose one. If you have good people who can evaluate which goalie has the foundation to be a top goaltender, seperate the Scrivens from the Talbot, then you can probably find one when you need one. The problem with goaltenders is the vast majority of them have 6 or 7 years of development ahead of them before they will be ready to start in the NHL when you pick them on draft day. At that point they are close to being free agents, it's pretty easy to put all that work in and then lose them for nothing.

 

[SDig14]

montreal was stupid for drafting price when they had jose theodore too.......ignoring the fact that the 2 years Price ogt hurt montreal missed the playoffs...

You're using probably the best goaltender drafted in the last 15 years as your example for your argument though.

For every Price there are 3 others who fail miserably and prove picking a goaltender is very difficult.

I'm not advocating passing on drafting a goalie in the early rounds because we have Talbot. I am advocating it because the odds aren't really in your favor and they take forever to develop if they do.

I mean, all 2nd or 3rd round picks have a low % to be an impact player, but you tend to know what they are sooner than you do with a goalie.

We waited forever for Dubnyk to develop, and even then we made potentially the wrong decision (could be argued).