2016-2017 Kings Roster Talk Part III

[KingTrouty]

Teams can't stay at the top of the pile forever

As an aside, I adored that movie when I was a youngster. Great clip, brother

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

I'm really enjoying these conversations analyzing Dean's moves on very the past few years. I find myself agreeing more so with Ziggy and Kings17, but I just as fully enjoy reading the posts challenging their assertions. I see what arguments hold up and which ones are matched by other evidence and it keeps things interesting and the analysis robust.

I don't see Ziggy's, Herby's, Kings17's, et al. posts as being overly negative, just pragmatic. Yet I want Raccoon, KingCandian, et al. to be right and for the Kings to be better than they likely are. Maybe I think that if we can figure things out, then Lombardi can too.

Then Kingspiracy posts and suddenly I want to hug it out with everyone here.

Teams can't stay at the top of the pile forever

 

[The Tikkanen]

This season has proven that shot counts and CORSI ratings are 2 of the biggest pile of garbage stats in the NHL.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Problem with any comparisons to the Pens is their 1C plays like a 1C when he is healthy.

This organization is in deep trouble if Kopitar doesn't get back to being a 70-point player. Does he have comparable chops to Sid? I don't think so.

I think Dean should have just recognized the Kings had a great three run, and it's over.

No one is healthy Sid, but let's not pretend just this a couple years ago people thought his career was toast, and the Pens struggled accordingly. One thing we've been spoiled with is Kopitar's relative health and consistency compared to literally anyone in the league, which is what makes his importance to the franchise magnified in a year such as this.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The Kings are definitely like Mufasa right now.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The Kings are definitely like Mufasa right now.

I guess that makes Calgary Scar again...

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

With three more games against them, the Flames certainly are looking like Scar. They can potentially knock the Kings off the proverbial cliff.

 

[Winger23]

With three more games against them, the Flames certainly are looking like Scar. They can potentially knock the Kings off the proverbial cliff.

Imo the flames are not good enough to knock them off the cliff, the kings are falling off on their own.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

Yeah, well, there's others here who aren't all tweener emo about our club, so it's fun to ridicule those that are. Whether it's been going on before yourself and I graced our glorious presence on this board is immaterial to me.

I just have a different out look of late I have realized your not going to change the chicken little mentality of this board(the sky is falling). Even in the best years of this club there was more negative then positive posts on this board. To be honest i think its actually better this year as a few old timer posters left. I am just going to deal with the people I want to deal with and to heck with the rest.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

This season has proven that shot counts and CORSI ratings are 2 of the biggest pile of garbage stats in the NHL.

They are not valuable over short terms. But they are much more valuable as a predictor of future success than many other tools we have over long periods of time. Dislike that if you want, but it's simply fact.

 

[deeshamrock]

The Bishop trade makes less and less sense to me, Budaj would've made an aduquate backup.

Budaj's play with the Kings this year supports the fact he would have been and adequate backup for Quick thru the final stretch which would have a few games with time to rest between. However, I think DL was looking for a two starter theory rather than 1 starter and 1 backup. Due to the lack of scoring, I think he felt that 2 starters would be better at a shot of 2-1 wins rather than and 1 and 1. But also I think he felt Bishop would be able to step in if Quick got hurt again.
But that is water under the bridge now.

Stevie Y was lucky that the Kings stepped in as they had no other takers for Big Ben.

I do believe the rumors that he tried to get a legit top 6 winger, but the price was too high . If that had gone thru, Budaj would have remained.

One of many gambles DL has taken since the end of last season. And none have worked out which is why there is roots in place for a change over the summer. Owners put a lot of faith in DL last year and his theory on his stlye of play still a winning one. With those expectations comes accountability and paying the piper for that fail. Kings losing games was not due to Quick, it was lack of offense. if they miss the playoffs, that's 1 playoff win in 3 yeas and the changes will occur.

 

[KINGS17]

I'm really enjoying these conversations analyzing Dean's moves on very the past few years. I find myself agreeing more so with Ziggy and Kings17, but I just as fully enjoy reading the posts challenging their assertions. I see what arguments hold up and which ones are matched by other evidence and it keeps things interesting and the analysis robust.

I don't see Ziggy's, Herby's, Kings17's, et al. posts as being overly negative, just pragmatic. Yet I want Raccoon, KingCandian, et al. to be right and for the Kings to be better than they likely are. Maybe I think that if we can figure things out, then Lombardi can too.

Then Kingspiracy posts and suddenly I want to hug it out with everyone here.

I appreciate this post PJ. I am not here to pick on Kopitar. In general, I believe it's a bad idea to give any forward approaching 30 years of age an 8-year deal.

It only works when the forward is a generational talent, and as good as Kopitar can be when his head is screwed on right, he isn't a generational talent.

I was thinking the Kings have a player like that in Drew Doughty, but I am beginning to have doubts. He needs to raise his game to another level next season.

If Kopitar and Doughty aren't going to lead the way the supporting cast doesn't matter, and the Kings may as well start selling depreciating assets in favor of assets which have a chance to grow in value.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Budaj's play with the Kings this year supports the fact he would have been and adequate backup for Quick thru the final stretch which would have a few games with time to rest between. However, I think DL was looking for a two starter theory rather than 1 starter and 1 backup. Due to the lack of scoring, I think he felt that 2 starters would be better at a shot of 2-1 wins rather than and 1 and 1. But also I think he felt Bishop would be able to step in if Quick got hurt again.
But that is water under the bridge now.

Stevie Y was lucky that the Kings stepped in as they had no other takers for Big Ben.

I do believe the rumors that he tried to get a legit top 6 winger, but the price was too high . If that had gone thru, Budaj would have remained.

One of many gambles DL has taken since the end of last season. And none have worked out which is why there is roots in place for a change over the summer.

What were the many gambles taken? The biggest thing Lombardi has done since the end of last season is change captains. He signed some guys to cheap 1 year deals and let young guys earn their roster spots. A conditional pick for Bishop isn't a gamble. Even without Purcell doing anything, the team has collectively made up the goals Lucic took with him, but that's all been canceled out by Kopitar, and to a somewhat lesser extent Toffoli.

All in all, Lombardi hasn't done all that much of anything since the end of last season. Other than the C. No long term contracts. No significant trades. He's let Forbort, Gravel, Dowd, and now LaDue and Kempe get some time. Basically, he's done everything since June of 2016 that people wanted him to do in June of 2014.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'm really enjoying these conversations analyzing Dean's moves on very the past few years. I find myself agreeing more so with Ziggy and Kings17, but I just as fully enjoy reading the posts challenging their assertions. I see what arguments hold up and which ones are matched by other evidence and it keeps things interesting and the analysis robust.

I don't see Ziggy's, Herby's, Kings17's, et al. posts as being overly negative, just pragmatic. Yet I want Raccoon, KingCandian, et al. to be right and for the Kings to be better than they likely are. Maybe I think that if we can figure things out, then Lombardi can too.

Then Kingspiracy posts and suddenly I want to hug it out with everyone here.

The thing is, I think most of us actually agree on lots of base concepts, we just talk a lot amongst ourselves, so we get to really go through and iron out every little point for better or for worse

I don't want people to get the wrong idea about where I'm coming from, either. I don't blame anyone for being pessimistic at this point at all in and of itself.

I appreciate this post PJ. I am not here to pick on Kopitar. In general, I believe it's a bad idea to give any forward approaching 30 years of age an 8-year deal.

It only works when the forward is a generational talent, and as good as Kopitar can be when his head is screwed on right, he isn't a generational talent.

I was thinking the Kings have a player like that in Drew Doughty, but I am beginning to have doubts. He needs to raise his game to another level next season.

If Kopitar and Doughty aren't going to lead the way the supporting cast doesn't matter, and the Kings may as well start selling depreciating assets in favor of assets which have a chance to grow in value.

Very much agree with this.

I don't know what all the reasons/excuses were this year, be it World Cup, injury, whatever, by next year both guys will be prime/aging veterans with probably a long summer to stew about this. The versions we get of them next year are going to be franchise-defining even more than they have been already.

I do actually think Drew has been very, very good this year and his performance is relatively unappreciated (not by you, just a general observation) because there's no spotlight on him. Lots of his metrics are godly (again, arguably better than last year though of course I wouldn't argue he's better), and his points could stand to go up but it's not like he's slacking. Think of how much heavy lifting he's doing with the guys behind him--three rookies and a heavily underperforming Muzzin and a defensively underperforming Martinez. We might even be a full lottery team without Drew this year imo.

 

[Omni Owl]

What were the many gambles taken? The biggest thing Lombardi has done since the end of last season is change captains. He signed some guys to cheap 1 year deals and let young guys earn their roster spots. A conditional pick for Bishop isn't a gamble. Even without Purcell doing anything, the team has collectively made up the goals Lucic took with him, but that's all been canceled out by Kopitar, and to a somewhat lesser extent Toffoli.

All in all, Lombardi hasn't done all that much of anything since the end of last season. Other than the C. No long term contracts. No significant trades. He's let Forbort, Gravel, Dowd, and now LaDue and Kempe get some time. Basically, he's done everything since June of 2016 that people wanted him to do in June of 2014.

Sekera was a gamble, one that I agreed with at the time and still do to an extent. The team went on a tear and forced DL to make that trade. The Lucic trade is unforgivable to me, way too many assets were given up and one of our biggest rivals gets a #1 goaltender. All for one measly year out of Lucic. I'm glad DL wasn't able to ink him in the offseason, that contract looks abysmal.

I'm glad some of the youth was able to break in this year and make an impact. They've actually been a bright spot compared to our top players.

 

[theMajor]

Budaj's play with the Kings this year supports the fact he would have been and adequate backup for Quick thru the final stretch which would have a few games with time to rest between. However, I think DL was looking for a two starter theory rather than 1 starter and 1 backup. Due to the lack of scoring, I think he felt that 2 starters would be better at a shot of 2-1 wins rather than and 1 and 1. But also I think he felt Bishop would be able to step in if Quick got hurt again.
But that is water under the bridge now.

Stevie Y was lucky that the Kings stepped in as they had no other takers for Big Ben.

I do believe the rumors that he tried to get a legit top 6 winger, but the price was too high . If that had gone thru, Budaj would have remained.

One of many gambles DL has taken since the end of last season. And none have worked out which is why there is roots in place for a change over the summer. Owners put a lot of faith in DL last year and his theory on his stlye of play still a winning one. With those expectations comes accountability and paying the piper for that fail. Kings losing games was not due to Quick, it was lack of offense. if they miss the playoffs, that's 1 playoff win in 3 yeas and the changes will occur.

Budaj was regressing BIG TIME before he was traded, it was fairly obvious that he was running out of juice so Lombardi decided to give the team a chance every night by acquiring another #1 goalie. it makes perfect sense. it was not a 'gamble' by any means

 

[deeshamrock]

What were the many gambles taken? The biggest thing Lombardi has done since the end of last season is change captains. He signed some guys to cheap 1 year deals and let young guys earn their roster spots. A conditional pick for Bishop isn't a gamble. Even without Purcell doing anything, the team has collectively made up the goals Lucic took with him, but that's all been canceled out by Kopitar, and to a somewhat lesser extent Toffoli.

All in all, Lombardi hasn't done all that much of anything since the end of last season. Other than the C. No long term contracts. No significant trades. He's let Forbort, Gravel, Dowd, and now LaDue and Kempe get some time. Basically, he's done everything since June of 2016 that people wanted him to do in June of 2014.

Watching his team underachieve for 2 straight years, while trading away assets for rental players. Digesting all of that, he held onto his belief that his 'big and heavy' game is the way to go. He could have made changes last summer that would have indicated that he was focusing on a new direction, a new future. Any thoughts of that ended when he signed Sutter. And Sutter only signed when his conditions were met, that is stripping the C from Brwon and giving it to Kopi.

That gamble, sticking with SUtter and that system was the biggest gamble that led to the other gambles that would have followed. The owners gave him the nod and it backfired. This summer they won't be as generous.

 

[Stimpythecat]

Sorry I'm late to the discussion. I have a few thoughts.

Budaj saved the season but he definitely was regressing. Given the number of back to backs and 3 in 4 days, an upgrade was needed.


A few people still mention Voynov. He is in all likelihood under an entry ban. That takes 6 months to appeal for a waiver. He would have already had to apply if he had any hope of attending any NHL training camp.

I would surmise since the kings don't seem to know he applied and thus plan for a potential return, that voynov did in fact not apply.

“In removal proceedings, if they leave the country, they generally would not be let back in,” Chadwick said.

The not being let back in is the entry ban part.


http://www.latimes.com/sports/kings/la-sp-0904-kings-voynov-20150904-story.html


Edit: Voynov is also still under a KHL contract for next season. He would have to get out of that, too if he wished to play next season in the NHL. I don't see the negotiations over his contract release being kept secret either.

 

[kings11]

Watching his team underachieve for 2 straight years, while trading away assets for rental players. Digesting all of that, he held onto his belief that his 'big and heavy' game is the way to go. He could have made changes last summer that would have indicated that he was focusing on a new direction, a new future. Any thoughts of that ended when he signed Sutter. And Sutter only signed when his conditions were met, that is stripping the C from Brwon and giving it to Kopi.

That gamble, sticking with SUtter and that system was the biggest gamble that led to the other gambles that would have followed. The owners gave him the nod and it backfired. This summer they won't be as generous.

Thats the thing though, Big and Heavy is the way to go no matter how much people disagree with it. The biggest problem is DL/DS failed to realize the toll it takes on players both physically and mentally. We needed to replace players in shorter intervals but haven't until this season. Mitchell, Regher, Scuderi, Greene, King, Nolan, Still, Richards were all guys that gave everything to win a cup but they wore out quickly and weren't replaced effectively until this season.

Posters want to argue we need more scoring but we're on par with our Cup winning teams yet fail to mention the biggest culprit this season which is our defense and more to the point both Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez. Also, throw McNabb in there as the 3 guys that have single handily cost us a few games this season when we just couldn't hold a lead...
Derek Forbort
Kevin Gravel
Paul LaDue
will reinvigorate our defensive corps next season and are doing pretty well this season as rookies pressure of playoff chasing hockey be damned! Yes I'm going out on a limb and saying those 3 rookies are going to be huge next season.

On offense, well we currently have cap constraints but I for one wouldn't be surprised if we trade one or both of Muzz/Amart for a proven top 6 wing. I think those talks with the Avs will lead to something this off season. Michael Amadio, I figure will likely battle for that 3rd C position next season with Kempe and Brodz helping to fill out the bottom 6..

Landeskog-Kopitar-Gaborik
Pearson-Carter-Toffoli
Kempe-Amadio-Brown
Lewis-Shore-Brodzinski

Forbort-Doughty
Muzz/Amart-LaDue
Gravel/Mcnabb-Voynov(speculation)

DD, Borts, Gravel, and LaDue would all be entering what should be their prime together, and the whole Voynov thing is worth keeping an eye on plus the added intrigue of Dominik Kubalik and we have some traction headed toward next season... This team will forever rely on the defense and one Jonny Quick, the rest just needs to be serviceable..

 

[KingsFan7824]

Sekera was a gamble, one that I agreed with at the time and still do to an extent. The team went on a tear and forced DL to make that trade.

Agreed. Then they went and actually missed the playoffs, which meant Carolina got the 2016 1st rd pick instead of 2015, which I believe then led directly to getting Lucic for the 15-16 season.

Voynov and missing the playoffs will always make the 14-15 season the turning point for this iteration of the franchise.

Watching his team underachieve for 2 straight years, while trading away assets for rental players. Digesting all of that, he held onto his belief that his 'big and heavy' game is the way to go. He could have made changes last summer that would have indicated that he was focusing on a new direction, a new future. Any thoughts of that ended when he signed Sutter. And Sutter only signed when his conditions were met, that is stripping the C from Brwon and giving it to Kopi.

That gamble, sticking with SUtter and that system was the biggest gamble that led to the other gambles that would have followed. The owners gave him the nod and it backfired. This summer they won't be as generous.

This season is more on Kopitar, Muzzin, and Toffoli. They've scored before. They've played well before. It wasn't because of any tricks or surprises. What made the Kings so good was that they just lined up and beat you. Kopitar and Toffoli have been hurt, and I'd be shocked if Muzzin wasn't, but it's not like everybody's numbers are down because of the archaic system deployed by the coach. It's those 3 more than anyone else. And they're missing the 8 goals Andreoff scored last year.

 

[HeadInjury]

Underachieving has been this team's M.O. Even in the Cup years of 2012 and 2014, the team was the 8th and 6th seed, respectively. Just got hot at the right time.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Underachieving has been this team's M.O. Even in the Cup years of 2012 and 2014, the team was the 8th and 6th seed, respectively. Just got hot at the right time.

Finishing in 2015 with literally the same record as in 2012 but missing the playoffs was so post-2014 Kings

 

[BigKing]

Might have to look at it not as underachieving but rather overachieving from 2012-14.

That's not as fun and I'm not saying that is the case, just moreso putting it out there that this team as a whole is achieving exactly as constructed at this point.

Any of the big stat followers have the defensive metrics since Quick's return/Bishop? Small sample size, but has the "best defense since 2012" underlying stats changed since Budaj's departure?

I still think they played extremely safe under Budaj which is why the underlying numbers look so good.

 

[KingTrouty]

Might have to look at it not as underachieving but rather overachieving from 2012-14.

That's not as fun and I'm not saying that is the case, just moreso putting it out there that this team as a whole is achieving exactly as constructed at this point.

Any of the big stat followers have the defensive metrics since Quick's return/Bishop? Small sample size, but has the "best defense since 2012" underlying stats changed since Budaj's departure?

I still think they played extremely safe under Budaj which is why the underlying numbers look so good.

You're a great poster, BigKing, but this is ridiculous. You don't win two Cups and go to a WCF "overachieving"

As to the second paragraph, the obvious answer is the roster has churned and we're still reeling. It is what it is, but don't take away from the 2012-2014 teams, brother.

 

[BigKing]

You're a great poster, BigKing, but this is ridiculous. You don't win two Cups and go to a WCF "overachieving"

As to the second paragraph, the obvious answer is the roster has churned and we're still reeling. It is what it is, but don't take away from the 2012-2014 teams, brother.

I'm not saying it is true; however, the regular season play always left a lot to be desired. So they underachieved until March or they overachieved at the perfect time.

I mean, getting hot at the right time and overachieving could be argued as the same thing.

Remember, even if this were the case, it wouldn't lead to the removal of the banners that now reside in the Staples rafters.