Speculation: 2014 Offseason - Roster Building / Trade Speculation Thread IV

[bernmeister]

Destroying this team now for the unlikely possibility of getting Stamkos in 2 years is not really the best idea

Moving Girardi is not destroying the team, if the return is good on top of improved cap flexibility.

 

[LundqvistsEvilTwin]

id move Mcilrath if he shows another year of no nhl for a new project

 

[bernmeister]

Bern, we need offense, but not at the expense of our defense.

Defense wins in all sports.

We need enough of both to do the job.
We do not have enough total needed assets (horses).

We have too much on D, not enough offense.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

I really have to thank you statistics wonks, because after a long year to two of trying to figure out exactly what it is that bothers me about advanced stats, I've finally figured it out. It's this:

Defensemen with good advanced stats need other defensemen doing good things without the puck to attain those stats. The things Girardi and Staal do without the puck, like hitting, blocking shots and creating turnovers, are what allow other players to gain possession of the puck. The relationship is far too symbiotic to boil it down to "Stralman's possession stats make him a better D than Girardi." Without someone like Staal doing what he does, Stralman wouldn't be able to do what he does. Without Girardi doing what he does, McDonagh wouldn't be able to do what he does.

Stralman is not a better defenseman than Girardi. Both are pretty one-dimensional. They're different types of players. But Girardi is better at what Girardi does than Stralman is at what Stralman does. That makes Girardi a more valuable player to this team, since his role activates the guy who is, by far, our best defenseman in all aspects.

Thank you for saying what I was thinking in a much more cohesive and structured way.

 

[Tawnos]

Thank you for saying what I was thinking in a much more cohesive and structured way.

And thanks for quoting it so it wasn't buried on the last page.

The truth is that good pairings in today's NHL probably need both types. They probably need a good possession guy and a good "without the puck" guy. Sort of the modern version of the classic "puck mover-stay at home" pairing. I think McDonagh-Stralman, in the long-term, would be a disaster of a pairing because it would hinder McDonagh's abilities as a all-around defenseman. He'd be spending too much time on the "without the puck" stuff instead of taking advantage of a different player doing it. In an even worse way... I think Moore-Stralman would suffer from the same problem.

By the same token, I'm less sure about Staal-Klein than I was before I started thinking this way. Staal from before the eye injury? Maybe. I'm not convinced that Staal will ever be that particular player ever again.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Stralman had a great season. But for all his puck possession prowess that is being preached, he consistently failed to hit the net when he got chances. He scored less than 15 points. He played with Marc Staal. I'm not ready to anoint Stralman as better than Girardi after one playoff run, or one year even. Girardi has been a #2 defenseman in this league for years.

That being said, I'd prefer to have them both because, like I said, I like Stralman. I think he's efficient and an underrated skater, and he's positionally sound.

I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make with the bolded. Girardi was paired with McDonagh, who is better than Staal.

 

[Elevate]

Stralman had a great season. But for all his puck possession prowess that is being preached, he consistently failed to hit the net when he got chances. He scored less than 15 points. He played with Marc Staal. I'm not ready to anoint Stralman as better than Girardi after one playoff run, or one year even. Girardi has been a #2 defenseman in this league for years.

That being said, I'd prefer to have them both because, like I said, I like Stralman. I think he's efficient and an underrated skater, and he's positionally sound.

There's more to offensive production than actually putting it in the net. Scoring opportunities doesn't occur on their own, they're the result of what all players on the ice are doing. Stralman hasn't got a lot of points on the sheets, but he isn't shooting at the goal too much himself either. He creates opportunities by moving the puck up the ice. 4-4.5M AAV is a very solid price for him.

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

It's an average over the whole season. They scored more 5-on-5 with Stralman on the ice than not, which is what his question was about.

Right. But let's not pretend that automatically means that Stralman contributed to that enough to warrant overpaying him.

The Rangers scored more on Wednesdays in March when it rained. Does that mean that had anything to do with it? Or do you just sometime score more than other times?

I'm not trying to say Stralman is a bad player. I love him. I really want him back, but not at 4.5 mil on a long-term deal. If he wants 4.5, he can have it for 4 years, not for 6. If he wants 6 years, the highest I'd go is 4 mil. He supposedly wants security for his family. The 4x6 deal nets him more overall money and more security/stability than the 4.5x4. But of course, this is all moot if he's simply going to take the offer from the highest bidder and play on Long Island or Toronto.

 

[Doctyl]

Moving Girardi is not destroying the team, if the return is good on top of improved cap flexibility.

You want to trade a top pairing dman and our leading goal scorer for the past 2 seasons and hope Stamkos signs here

That's a bad idea

 

[SA16]

We need enough of both to do the job.
We do not have enough total needed assets (horses).

We have too much on D, not enough offense.

What is the difference between an asset and a horse?

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

Most GMs have training camp holdouts in their past. The Rangers have had what... two of them in 10 years? Stepan and Dubinsky. Trying to remember a third.

The majority of contract extensions for top players are signed mid-season. Toews, Kane, Thornton, Marleau, Sedins, Ovechkin, Kessel, Kopitar, Keith etc, etc. The ones that get done in the summer... Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Giroux... those are not common.

The Rangers aren't different than anybody else with this stuff.

100% accurate.

 

[Zil]

I really have to thank you statistics wonks, because after a long year to two of trying to figure out exactly what it is that bothers me about advanced stats, I've finally figured it out. It's this:

Defensemen with good advanced stats need other defensemen doing good things without the puck to attain those stats. The things Girardi and Staal do without the puck, like hitting, blocking shots and creating turnovers, are what allow other players to gain possession of the puck. The relationship is far too symbiotic to boil it down to "Stralman's possession stats make him a better D than Girardi." Without someone like Staal doing what he does, Stralman wouldn't be able to do what he does. Without Girardi doing what he does, McDonagh wouldn't be able to do what he does.

Stralman is not a better defenseman than Girardi. Both are pretty one-dimensional. They're different types of players. But Girardi is better at what Girardi does than Stralman is at what Stralman does. That makes Girardi a more valuable player to this team, since his role activates the guy who is, by far, our best defenseman in all aspects.

If this were true, then playing Stralman and McDonagh together would be a horrible idea. Instead, they dominate the puck when paired together. The fact is that Stralman and McDonagh do hit and block shots when necessary, but they don't have to do it as much because their play leads to the team having the puck with greater frequency. You can rationalize things however you want, but Girardi holds McDonagh back (Staal doesn't hold Stralman back because he's better than Girardi, but he does benefit massively from playing with Stralman).

 

[Tawnos]

If this were true, then playing Stralman and McDonagh together would be a horrible idea. Instead, they dominate the puck when paired together. The fact is that Stralman and McDonagh do hit and block shots when necessary, but they don't have to do it as much because their play leads to the team having the puck with greater frequency.

What kind of sample size are we looking at for the two of them? It can't be that large. McDonagh, by the way, does the without the puck work as well as Girardi and Staal. Chances are that he's doing it waaay too much with Stralman. Before this season, it was his primary focus in general. I happen to think, as a long-term pairing, it is a horrible idea.

And none of that was to say that possession players don't hit or block shots. It also isn't to say that away-from-the-puck (need a better name) players don't move the puck well at all. It's to say that these guys are playing to their strengths.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Patrick Berglund just signed a 3 year deal worth 3.7M per with STL. Over the last 3 years he has put up 99 points. Over the last 3 years Brassard has put up 116 points. This IMO puts Brassard at 4M per on a multi year deal.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

What's the deal with Kristo? Do you guys think there's any chance he has a good camp and surprises some people?

Yes, I absolutely do.

Most of the negative narrative on this board is solely done by those who haven't watched too much of him.

He has some serious offensive talent. His offensive approach is also "shoot first" for the most part - something that we don't have enough of. He's a little bit of a defensive liability, but he made some nice strides in the AHL in that respect.

On a line with Zucc... haha hell people would probably think he was a superstar. One of our fastest prospects. One of the most skilled prospects. On the smaller side and defensively irresponsible at times but man he could be a difference maker if he gets the chance.

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

I really have to thank you statistics wonks, because after a long year to two of trying to figure out exactly what it is that bothers me about advanced stats, I've finally figured it out. It's this:

Defensemen with good advanced stats need other defensemen doing good things without the puck to attain those stats. The things Girardi and Staal do without the puck, like hitting, blocking shots and creating turnovers, are what allow other players to gain possession of the puck. The relationship is far too symbiotic to boil it down to "Stralman's possession stats make him a better D than Girardi." Without someone like Staal doing what he does, Stralman wouldn't be able to do what he does. Without Girardi doing what he does, McDonagh wouldn't be able to do what he does.

Stralman is not a better defenseman than Girardi. Both are pretty one-dimensional. They're different types of players. But Girardi is better at what Girardi does than Stralman is at what Stralman does. That makes Girardi a more valuable player to this team, since his role activates the guy who is, by far, our best defenseman in all aspects.

This is one of the best posts in this entire thread.

Advanced stats are nice, and help show subtle differences between different types of players. But, I'm never going to let a set of advanced statistics reach a verdict on a player who while watching for 82 games, I feel the opposite.

ie: If I watch 82 games and Kreider is using his size and speed to create chances for his linemates, and he scores 25 goals himself, I'm not going to throw that out the window because advanced stats say that we score more with him off the ice, or that his possession numbers are among the worst in the league.

Like you said, these stats only tell a very specific and therefore limited part of a much larger story.

It's nice to have, but unfortunately some people now use them as the end-all-be-all to back up a theory/claim about a certain player, or to argue that one player is "better" overall than another because of a tunnel-vision advanced stat.

Hockey is art.

There will never be a set of statistics that will be able to tell the whole story. Even if you had statistics that were 99% accurate in that regard, you could still play game 7 and have the "statistically inferior" team win. And right now, these advanced stats are nowhere close to that level of accuracy. They only tell a limited and arbitrarily-skewed (because of all the factors that affect each and every individual play that aren't included in the calculation) story.

Thank you, Tawnos, for perfectly articulating what I've felt for a while now but hadn't been able to as eloquently put into words. It should be a requirement to read this post before posting on here, IMO.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

Yes, I absolutely do.

Most of the negative narrative on this board is solely done by those who haven't watched too much of him.

He has some serious offensive talent. His offensive approach is also "shoot first" for the most part - something that we don't have enough of. He's a little bit of a defensive liability, but he made some nice strides in the AHL in that respect.

On a line with Zucc... haha hell people would probably think he was a superstar. One of our fastest prospects. One of the most skilled prospects. On the smaller side and defensively irresponsible at times but man he could be a difference maker if he gets the chance.

I haven't seen much of him other than in highlights, and he seems like he's got a wicked shot. I'm hoping two of him, Miller, and Lindberg can make their presence felt at camp.

I would love for Kristo to work out - we need young, talented, offensive players.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make with the bolded. Girardi was paired with McDonagh, who is better than Staal.

Damn BB, I usually like your posts.

The point I'm trying to make is that Marc Staal has been a better defenseman in this league than Anton Stralman. The notion that Staal benefits from Stralman is a narrative I'm not getting on board with.

I wasn't pointing out that Stralman plays with Staal and Girardi plays with McDonagh as a means to compare Girardi to Stralman - I was doing it to show that Stralman has the benefit of playing with a defensive defenseman who would be on a top pairing on 25+ teams in the NHL.

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

Patrick Berglund just signed a 3 year deal worth 3.7M per with STL. Over the last 3 years he has put up 99 points. Over the last 3 years Brassard has put up 116 points. This IMO puts Brassard at 4M per on a multi year deal.

Let's not forget Brassard is a RFA. He's not a UFA.

He either accepts what Sather gives him on a longer term deal, or he can goto arbitration and take a 1-2 year deal.

I can't see him holding out. He'll get a raise and he should be happy with that. He should be thrilled with 4mil/year on any term deal.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

Let's not forget Brassard is a RFA. He's not a UFA.

He either accepts what Sather gives him on a longer term deal, or he can goto arbitration and take a 1-2 year deal.

I can't see him holding out. He'll get a raise and he should be happy with that. He should be thrilled with 4mil/year on any term deal.

That's a very dangerous move.

I think Brass gets at least 3 years and if he does, he's going for 4.2-4.5.

I pray he signs for 4.0, but I doubt it.

 

[Tawnos]

Let's not forget Brassard is a RFA. He's not a UFA.

He either accepts what Sather gives him on a longer term deal, or he can goto arbitration and take a 1-2 year deal.

I can't see him holding out. He'll get a raise and he should be happy with that. He should be thrilled with 4mil/year on any term deal.

Berglund was an RFA also. Same exact situation as Brass, really. Brassard easily deserves $4.5m, but obviously I'd like to see him get less.

 

[Zil]

The fans that don't like him, like yourself (I'm assuming), don't because of the new puck possession stats that are all the rave. Those stats are useful - but they're just like any other stat. All of us have presumably been watching/playing hockey for a long time. I don't need a stat to tell me who is a valuable hockey player and who isn't. Dan Girardi is a damn good defenseman and a warrior. He's a great leader and a constant on our team, and the consummate professional.

I don't think you understand. I like Girardi fine. What I don't like is the role he has been thrust into and the contract he has been given. You can call him a "warrior" all you want, but that doesn't make his game any better. The fact is that he's a very limited defenseman, better suited to the second or third pair. You can present anecdotal evidence about him occasionally making a nice play just as can be done for every player. But that doesn't change the fact that we have data compiled giving us a more accurate read on his overall play.

The one point you made about racking up stats that mean you don't have the puck - no hockey team is going to control the puck all the time. What was the highest puck percentage team? 55%? I don't even know. But I'd wager that's about the percentage, which means they don't have it 40-45% of the time, and when you don't, you want a guy like Girardi back there. I'm not saying he's the greatest D in the world, but let's not drive the guy out of town because he "doesn't fit AV's system." He fits any system.

If I have the choice between a defenseman like Stralman who allows the Rangers to play with the puck a majority of the time and defenseman like Girardi who allows the opposition to play with the puck more, I am going to pick Stralman every time. I assume you liked all of those good offensive things that McDonagh did this year. If he had a partner like Stralman, McDonagh would've had a chance to do even more of them. That's how puck possession works.

And I should note, not only do Stralman and McDonagh aid puck possession. They also are excellent in their own ends. It's very possible to do both. Girardi just doesn't have the skillset for it. Plus he's slow and gets beat a lot, while also not being a strong defender in the neutral zone.

Stralman had a great season. But for all his puck possession prowess that is being preached, he consistently failed to hit the net when he got chances. He scored less than 15 points.

Who cares? The possession he generated allowed other players to put up points that would not have been possible without his play.

He played with Marc Staal. I'm not ready to anoint Stralman as better than Girardi after one playoff run, or one year even. Girardi has been a #2 defenseman in this league for years.

That being said, I'd prefer to have them both because, like I said, I like Stralman. I think he's efficient and an underrated skater, and he's positionally sound.

Stralman is excellent whoever you pair him with. I've posted the chart about six or seven times now. Playing with Staal certainly hasn't hurt Stralman's play, but he's very clearly not a product of Staal. Meanwhile, Girardi has been carried by McDonagh and before that Staal.

I'm not blasting Staal, I just think he's our only big trade chip and we'd be wise to deal him. He's going to command a contract at least as big as Girardi's and left handed defensemen are one of the strengths of our farm system. Unless JT Miller takes a miraculous step forward, we don't have a second high quality center to pair with Stepan, nor do we have one coming in the minors.

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

Damn BB, I usually like your posts.

The point I'm trying to make is that Marc Staal has been a better defenseman in this league than Anton Stralman. The notion that Staal benefits from Stralman is a narrative I'm not getting on board with.

I wasn't pointing out that Stralman plays with Staal and Girardi plays with McDonagh as a means to compare Girardi to Stralman - I was doing it to show that Stralman has the benefit of playing with a defensive defenseman who would be on a top pairing on 25+ teams in the NHL.

I agree with you.

In all reality, Staal and Stralman both benefitted from playing with EACH OTHER.

Stralman's flaws were masked by Staal's big, lanky body/strong stick-work and Staal's slow skating was masked by Stralman's mobility and ability to skate the puck out of trouble.

Just as Stralman may not look as great next to someone else (in the event Staal is traded), Staal may not look as solid with a different partner (if Stralman walks).

Let's just all agree that Stralman is an above average defender. He's a legitimate top-4 defenseman.

The only debate should be whether it's the right move or not for this team to pay him more than 4-4.5mil per season on a long-term deal that will likely have some form of a NTC.


Honestly, I wish we had locked up Stralman mid-season (for whatever the contract) and were discussing whether or not to re-sign Girardi for 5.5 with a NMC/NTC.

I'd honestly feel more secure losing Girardi and Stralman at this point. Girardi may have played his best hockey already. Stralman seems to have just found his niche here in NY, while Girardi (partly due to the style he plays) is more likely to break down and have a sharp decline in performance over the next few seasons. But that's a whole different discussion that's mostly moot because he's here to stay for the time being.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Damn BB, I usually like your posts.

The point I'm trying to make is that Marc Staal has been a better defenseman in this league than Anton Stralman. The notion that Staal benefits from Stralman is a narrative I'm not getting on board with.

I wasn't pointing out that Stralman plays with Staal and Girardi plays with McDonagh as a means to compare Girardi to Stralman - I was doing it to show that Stralman has the benefit of playing with a defensive defenseman who would be on a top pairing on 25+ teams in the NHL.

Staal has been a better defenseman than Stralman in his career, but he's still a fairly inconsistent player. He was not good in the final two rounds, while Stralman was consistently good in all four rounds, and he has been consistently providing steady defense for three years, now, throughout the entirety of the regular season and postseason.

The better argument is that they help each other equally. I don't think the Staal-Klein pairing will perform as well as people think. It's a decent pairing, sure, but Staal-Stralman is arguably the best second pairing in the league.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

I haven't seen much of him other than in highlights, and he seems like he's got a wicked shot. I'm hoping two of him, Miller, and Lindberg can make their presence felt at camp.

I would love for Kristo to work out - we need young, talented, offensive players.

I saw him on TV during training camp and he turned my head.

I got to go down to Hfd quite a few times during the season. He certainly is a legitimate talent.

He is definitely one of the prospects that I think can make noise this year. Alain has noticed him, too.

He definitely wouldn't be able to provide the physicality that Poo does. But his speed is better. His shot is better. And he's able to create more opportunities for himself and his team mates than Poo is.

Defense isn't that far off between the two. During the regular season, that line would likely be dynamic... but their lack of physical force during a playoffs run would render them ineffective. You need physicality in the playoffs. Kristo would need to be on a line w/ someone who crashed the net.

2nd line had Hagelin. 1st line had Kreider. 3rd line had Poo (sometimes).