Speculation: 2014 Offseason - Roster Building / Trade Speculation Thread IV

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

and before anyone brings up Girardi being inept offensively (yeah for the most part he is) though he did put up 24 points.. He's been a rock on defense for years, and plays against the top forwards of every team every night, he doesn't miss a game, and he plays over 20 minutes +, He's a rock back there.. When Stralman signs his big deal, wherever it is, then we'll find out if he can shut down the top players in the world, and lay claim that he's a top pairing defenseman because he's going to get around 5M most likely.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Brassard is worth more than just Leddy. Leddy/Morin is a decent package, though.

 

[Cassano]

The problem with the eye test once again is that we're biased human beings. Klein's inadequate clearings, lack of defensive zone coverage and counteractive timing in terms of decision making is brushed aside as long he hits a guy or blocks a shot the next shift. Meanwhile Stralman can be virtually flawless all game long and make one mistake failing to tie up a guy in the slow and gets muscled in the process, he'll get labelled as a soft no-good Euro.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Brassard is worth more than just Leddy. Leddy/Morin is a decent package, though.

Even better..

See, this is what's called being creative to upgrade the center spot.. You make a trade from strength (defense) for that need (center), then you flip one of the weaker centers to a team that needs one and replace that dman with another good/solid one.

If the Rangers had Stepan/ROR as the 1/2, they could definitely take a chance on Miller being the 3C, because they would have 3 strong centers (two at the top, and Moore at the 4, who can easily step into the 3c spot in a pinch).

 

[Fitzy]

I'm still trying to figure out why this conversation has to devolve into team Stralman vs team Klein.

That's a brutal oversimplification of the issue.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

I'm still trying to figure out why this conversation has to devolve into team Stralman vs team Klein.

That's a brutal oversimplification of the issue.

I simply go with the cheaper option... PROVIDING we can upgrade our offense.

 

[CommaSynapse]

Chicago needs a 2nd line center.

We have two of them.

Brassard's RFA rights for Nick Leddy (23 y/o, LD, makes 2.7, skates like McDonagh, RFA next season)

That allows us to trade Staal in a deal for Ryan O'Reilly.


This all fits under even the most modest cap estimates, even with a 13th F and 7th D:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Mats Zuccarello ($4.200m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($6.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Chris Kreider ($2.500m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Danny Kristo ($0.827m)
Daniel Carcillo ($0.825m) / Dominic Moore ($1.600m) / Ryan Carter ($0.900m)
Jesper Fast ($0.805m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
Nick Leddy ($2.700m) / Anton Stralman ($4.000m)
John Moore ($1.500m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Conor Allen ($0.925m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,588,542; BONUSES: $1,295,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $2,511,458

Cap is supposed to be around $70,000,000, so we'd really only have about $500,000 in money. Granted, this wouldn't be the worst deal, but taking on ROR is a lot of salary. I think your numbers are about right. I don't see Kristo as being NHL-ready, never mind adding Carcillo as a regular. I think, at best, this team would be about the same as this season. The defense would be (possibly) improved in terms of offense, but I think the overall offense would be taking a step back. The top 6 would be pretty good on both ends of the ice, but the bottom 6 would be rough. Where did Dorsett end up?

Besides, I don't think the Hawks would trade Leddy for RFA right alone. No guarantee, and that'd be terrible asset management. They could certainly get a better offer for Leddy.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

The problem with the eye test once again is that we're biased human beings. Klein's inadequate clearings, lack of defensive zone coverage and counteractive timing in terms of decision making is brushed aside as long he hits a guy or blocks a shot the next shift. Meanwhile Stralman can be virtually flawless all game long and make one mistake failing to tie up a guy in the slow and gets muscled in the process, he'll get labelled as a soft no-good Euro.

I don't think it's necessary to undermine the value of the "eye test" - yes, humans may be biased, but the brain is plenty capable of making a logical conclusion regarding a player's capabilities when one has seen said player in several hundred games. Now, that doesn't quite apply to Klein, but there is a reason NHL teams send scouts out to observe players. Stats aren't capable of picking up nuances that the human eye can.

People need to stop trying to pick sides, and instead use EVERY tool to their advantage - their own thoughts, and the numerous statistics available to them.

 

[Thirty One]

I'm still trying to figure out why this conversation has to devolve into team Stralman vs team Klein.

That's a brutal oversimplification of the issue.

Quite simple:

1. Someone asked if Staal and Klein would be a good 2nd pair.

2. I said no.

3. You went all:

 

[Zil]

What the hell?

100 pts 09-10
99 pts 10-11
104 pts 11-12

There was no fluke that season. That team really was that good. Then they lost Suter.

In 09-10, Nashville was one of the 10 best possession teams in the league (8th FF%, 11 CF%). That was not a fluke.

In 10-11 they dropped back to 20th or so (23rd FF%, 20th CF%), but boasted the second highest PDO in the league. In 11-12 they dropped to 29th in FF% and CF%, but again boasted an extremely high PDO (6th). Basically they were legitimately very good for one of those years, while riding Pekka Rinne's save percentage, which correlates with their PDO for those two seasons (2nd and 7th in SV%, 2nd and 6th in PDO). Both of those teams were extremely similar to the 11-12 Rangers, who rode a God-like Lundqvist to a fantastic regular season record, before bowing out in the conference finals.

Complete and utter ********.

Their D was other worldly that year (including Klein). Especially in terms of offense. When Josi took that step forward Nashville shot up the ranks. With Suter they are at least a 90 point team. And I watched that team a lot.

Comments like that are where I can't take advanced stat apostles seriously anymore.

You are attributing too much of Pekka Rinne's performance to the Nashville defense.

 

[Thirty One]

People need to stop trying to pick sides, and instead use EVERY tool to their advantage - their own thoughts, and the numerous statistics available to them.

Exactly. And I've seen nothing from Klein to disprove what the numbers say about him.

 

[Tawnos]

You don't know what they're indicators of because you have no data on how these totals actually correlate with goal prevention. Your whole thesis on without the puck duties versus with the puck duties and what they entail has nothing to back it up. This is just conjecture that you've summoned up on the spot. You have no data telling us how important blocked shots, takeaways, etc are.

What backs it up is what happens on the ice. But that's back to the crux of the whole problem. I pay attention to what happens on the ice and use statistics to inform what I see. And yes, those statistics include possession numbers. It's why I can recognize that Girardi is, in fact, a better defenseman than Stralman is. It's why the league can recognize that Girardi is, in fact, a better defenseman than Stralman is. Or, if you rather, why he's the more valuable of the two defensemen to have. How do I know that the league recognizes that? Because Girardi can get more money than him. He would have gotten $6m+ if had been going to free agency on Tuesday. Stralman might approach $5m on that same marketplace. You really think a measly thing like reputation is what determines that? No, it's actual play. Front office staffs do their homework.

The two player's numbers are actually pretty similar in terms of goal prevention. An even strength goal is scored with Girardi on the ice every 24 minutes of ES playing time. The number is 28 minutes for Stralman. Slightly better for #6, but #5 plays the tougher competition.

 

[Miz]

Funny how people are bashing Klein. Does anyone remember how the defensive coverage was for the 1st 2-3 months of the season when we switched up defensive schemes? Klein got here late Jan or early Feb. Give the guy at least a full season before we write him off. Remember that the all mighty Stralman wasn't the defensive stud he is today in his first season+ with us.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Exactly. And I've seen nothing from Klein to disprove what the numbers say about him.

I think his deficiencies are being overstated myself. I don't see this terrible liability that some are seeing. Would he make a good partner for Staal? I don't think so. I do think, however, that he is a very solid 3rd pairing defenseman.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Funny how people are bashing Klein. Does anyone remember how the defensive coverage was for the 1st 2-3 months of the season when we switched up defensive schemes? Klein got here late Jan or early Feb. Give the guy at least a full season before we write him off. Remember that the all mighty Stralman wasn't the defensive stud he is today in his first season+ with us.

Stralman was pretty studly for most of him time here. He was excellent in the 2012 playoff run.

 

[Fitzy]

Quite simple:

1. Someone asked if Staal and Klein would be a good 2nd pair.

2. I said no.

3. You went all:

This narrative has been going on much, much longer than this.

In fact, it started pretty immediately after the Klein acquisition. A lot of posters pointed to possession stats and said it was a bad deal.

What has happened since then is what's called confirmation bias.

 

[Chief]

I can't wait until Stastny signs elsewhere leaving the Avs to realize they can't afford to lose Stastny and O'Reilly...putting an end to all the Staal for ROR trades.

 

[Thirty One]

This narrative has been going on much, much longer than this.

In fact, it started pretty immediately after the Klein acquisition. A lot of posters pointed to possession stats and said it was a bad deal.

What has happened since then is what's called confirmation bias.

So what part are you confused about, exactly? You said you were confused.

 

[Tawnos]

I think his deficiencies are being overstated myself. I don't see this terrible liability that some are seeing. Would he make a good partner for Staal? I don't think so. I do think, however, that he is a very solid 3rd pairing defenseman.

I think with a partner who is, say, a lesser version of McDonagh, Klein would be a solid 2nd pairing defenseman. I'm willing to admit that we may have a 2LD who is incompatible with him as 2RD on a long-term basis. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Zil]

So why even watch the games?

Just stat watch and that's your SCF winner.

Does seeking to understand what I'm actually watching takes the fun out of the game? The Kings have been the best possession team in hockey the last three seasons. It's worked out pretty well for them. Last year was the best possession team we've had in ages. We made the Stanley Cup Final.

You are relying far too much on what numbers are telling you. It's like you'd believe Joe Thornton was a better overall player than Sidney Crosby if some stat indicated such.

The combined force of Crosby and Malkin appears to be the only method for a poor possession team to legitimately contend for the Stanley Cup. The stats bear that out. Go dig up -31-'s Pittsburgh series preview and read the section on what they do for team shooting percentages if you don't believe me.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Are we going to talk about anyone else on our team as far as free agents go, or are we just going to debate about Klein vs Stralman the whole off season?