Speculation: 2014 Offseason - Roster Building / Trade Speculation Thread IV

[Raspewtin]

Does everyone forget that Klein played top 4 minutes his WHOLE career before coming to NY?

 

[Thirty One]

Klein was the #3 defenseman in Nashvlle in 11-12, the year they finished 5th in the league in points.

Frank Bouillon was their #4 that year, would you be comfortable with him too?

In fact, he was the #3 in Nashville behind Weber and Suter for a very, very long time including a myriad of playoff seasons where they allowed among the fewest goals against in the league.

Is it concerning to you that he's played on that many exceptional teams and been a plus in his career once?

 

[Thirty One]

Does everyone forget that Klein played top 4 minutes his WHOLE career before coming to NY?

To the detriment of his teams...

 

[Zil]

Klein was the #3 defenseman in Nashvlle in 11-12, the year they finished 5th in the league in points.

In fact, he was the #3 in Nashville behind Weber and Suter for a very, very long time including a myriad of playoff seasons where they allowed among the fewest goals against in the league.

It's bordering on vitriol from a lot of you folks, at this point.

The year Nashville put up 104 points was a massive, massive, massive fluke. They were the second worst team in the league by both CF% and FF%. That team was in no way, shape, or form a legitimate contender. Being the number three guy behind two stars on that roster does not do anything for Klein.

The overrating of Stralman and the underrating of Klein on here is alarming.

Klein is not good. He managed to post a negative CF% rel on a bad possession team like Nashville. That means he somehow made Nashville's possession game worse when he hit the ice.

 

[Raspewtin]

To the detriment of his teams...

Link me to stats where Nashville would have preformed better without Klein in the lineup, and that he was precisely holding his team back.

Pls.

 

[Tawnos]

Frank Bouillon was their #4 that year, would you be comfortable with him too?

Actually, Roman Josi was their #4 for most of that season.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

What gives you the idea that the current best team would be better than an essential all star team that exceeds the salary cap if you did this? 58% is not a hard cap for the max team corsi.

Because that's not how hockey works. This isn't open hockey, it's the NHL. One team isn't going to possess the puck for 70% of a game. I don't care if it's an all-star team or not.

You need players who excel without the puck.

Also, this whole Girardi is bad with the puck narrative is nonsense. He made some terrible gaffes in the SCF that left me shaking my head, but I'm judging the player from watching him for years, not an advanced stat that tells me what I'm not seeing. And I enjoy advanced stats, I think they can shed some insight into a player like Stralman to show you some untapped value.

Bottom line - you can praise Stralman for being underrated without overrating him and simultaneously degrading Girardi to the point that you think he's not valuable to the team and would deal him for a 7th round pick because "he doesn't fit AV's system." Obviously it wasn't you said all of that but it was said, and I'm not going to build my team solely on an advanced stat metric, and I sure as hell hope the Rangers don't solely base their moves on it either.

 

[Thirty One]

Link me to stats where Nashville would have preformed better without Klein in the lineup, and that he was precisely holding his team back.

Pls.

http://rangersunlimited.com/2014/06/20/re-defining-defense/

 

[Tawnos]

The year Nashville put up 105 points was a massive, massive, massive fluke. They were the second worst team in the league by both CF% and FF%. That team was in no way, shape, or form a legitimate contender. Being the number three guy behind two stars on that roster does not do anything for Klein.

What the hell?

100 pts 09-10
99 pts 10-11
104 pts 11-12

There was no fluke that season. That team really was that good. Then they lost Suter.

 

[Thirty One]

Actually, Roman Josi was their #4 for most of that season.

He played less ES time per game than Bouillon did.

 

[Tawnos]

He played less ES time per game than Bouillon did.

Because he was a rookie. The numbers are skewed by the early part of the year. Look at their playoff TOI. Josi is number 4. Besides, I watched that team a lot. Josi was typically #4.

 

[Raspewtin]

http://rangersunlimited.com/2014/06/20/re-defining-defense/

Problems I have with this.

1. I don't care what John Moore's corsi was with Del Zotto compared to Klein, I'd rather die than see that abortion pairing ever again. I'll take the eye test here.

2. I'd like to see data such as on ice SV% with and without Klein. Shot attempts only mean so much with no data of goals scored/against. I can't figure out how to show them before/after the Klein trade, but John Moore's is quite high at .943, it's quite naive to believe Klein has nothing to do with that. But again, can not find a way to measure with partners.

3. Failure to account for Kevin Klein adjusting to a new system. Yeah it sounds like a cop out, but if every other player on this team gets that excuse, Klein should too. Everyone can agree that he looked good in the playoffs (obviously not Stralman good, don't even think I needed to point that out) but he looked better as the season went on. Nashville's system closely resembled Torts' system of play which was a corsi killer.

 

[Fitzy]

Corsi has become a religion, much like econometrics. Corsi people might actually be correct with their forecasting more frequently than Keynesians, though.

It opens with a premise... that shots for/against is somehow the end of the story when it comes to the run of play. Puck possession. Shots on Goal. These are objective measures being used subjectively.

 

[frozenrubber]

Here's an idea. There are conflicting reports on Kevin Hayes, Chicagos former 1st rounder who hasn't signed with them. What about him as a possibility to replace Pouliot? Power forward. Not the best hockey IQ but very strong. Good shot, good hands.

They should be all over him

Hayes is a RW. Kevin is balking at Chicago w/ their RW depth, the rangers will have Nash, St. Louis, and Zuccarello above him.

Florida is where he should go (and can play w/ his brother).

 

[Raspewtin]

The year Nashville put up 105 points was a massive, massive, massive fluke. They were the second worst team in the league by both CF% and FF%. That team was in no way, shape, or form a legitimate contender. Being the number three guy behind two stars on that roster does not do anything for Klein.



Klein is not good. He managed to post a negative CF% rel on a bad possession team like Nashville. That means he somehow made Nashville's possession game worse when he hit the ice.

Complete and utter ********.

Their D was other worldly that year (including Klein). Especially in terms of offense. When Josi took that step forward Nashville shot up the ranks. With Suter they are at least a 90 point team. And I watched that team a lot.

Comments like that are where I can't take advanced stat apostles seriously anymore.

 

[Fitzy]

Any serious hockey analyst wasting his time with +/- is puzzling. I'd run through the list of why, but it's Sophomoric. I think we've moved past that level of conversation here.

 

[Tawnos]

Complete and utter ********.

Their D was other worldly that year (including Klein). Especially in terms of offense. When Josi took that step forward Nashville shot up the ranks. With Suter they are at least a 90 point team. And I watched that team a lot.

Josi's development was a freakin Godsend to that team. Boullion had taken a step backwards (he was very good the year before). Franzen and Sulzer were both gone. Blum was struggling and Ellis wasn't quite all there. In comes Josi. It was awesome. Honestly, Poile screwed it all up by brining back Radulov and completely destroying the locker room cohesion. S. Kostitsyn went from being a great team player to being a good influence on his brother to being the younger brother tagging along with the older brother and his buddy tore it up off the ice.

 

[Zil]

My contention is not that Stralman needs someone on his pairing taking greater care of these kinds of things, but that he excels when someone is. My second contention would be that, in order for Stralman to succeed on a McDonagh-Stralman pairing, he would need McDonagh to be handling more of the "without puck" issues than he does. That would mean that McDonagh isn't doing as much of the things we all want him to be doing. That is not a smart use of your roster.

You can poo-poo these stats all you want, but they are legitimate indicators of how good a defender is at playing defense without the puck, which even most good possession defenders are doing more than 40% of the time. They have value, but it needs to be put into context. Staal's job is not to block a shot or throw a hit that Stralman doesn't want to, but to block the shot or throw the hit when he gets the chance and rely on Stralman (or another Ranger) to retrieve the puck after.

And I wasn't using the raw totals of the stats alone. I was using them to paint a picture and lend some color to the raw totals of the Corsi statistics.

You don't know what they're indicators of because you have no data on how these totals actually correlate with goal prevention. Your whole thesis on without the puck duties versus with the puck duties and what they entail has nothing to back it up. This is just conjecture that you've summoned up on the spot. You have no data telling us how important blocked shots, takeaways, etc are.

 

[Thirty One]

I'd like to see data such as on ice SV% with and without Klein. Shot attempts only mean so much with no data of goals scored/against. I can't figure out how to show them before/after the Klein trade, but John Moore's is quite high at .943, it's quite naive to believe Klein has nothing to do with that.

I think the opposite is naive. Individual players haven't historically shown a noticeable impact on On-Ice Sv%.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-nugent-hopkins-should-not-be-scratched/

Nashville's system closely resembled Torts' system of play which was a corsi killer.

That doesn't explain why nearly every Nashville defenseman performed better without Klein than with.

 

[Raspewtin]

You don't know what they're indicators of because you have no data on how these totals actually correlate with goal prevention. Your whole thesis on without the puck duties versus with the puck duties and what they entail has nothing to back it up. This is just conjecture that you've summoned up on the spot. You have no data telling us how important blocked shots, takeaways, etc are

So why even watch the games?

Just stat watch and that's your SCF winner.

 

[Thirty One]

So why even watch the games?

Just stat watch and that's your SCF winner.

Worked for Kings fans!

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

Chicago needs a 2nd line center.

We have two of them.

Brassard's RFA rights for Nick Leddy (23 y/o, LD, makes 2.7, skates like McDonagh, RFA next season)

That allows us to trade Staal in a deal for Ryan O'Reilly.


This all fits under even the most modest cap estimates, even with a 13th F and 7th D:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Mats Zuccarello ($4.200m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($6.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Chris Kreider ($2.500m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Danny Kristo ($0.827m)
Daniel Carcillo ($0.825m) / Dominic Moore ($1.600m) / Ryan Carter ($0.900m)
Jesper Fast ($0.805m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
Nick Leddy ($2.700m) / Anton Stralman ($4.000m)
John Moore ($1.500m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Conor Allen ($0.925m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,588,542; BONUSES: $1,295,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $2,511,458

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

My head hurts from all this corsi, puck possession stats.. The fact is the Rangers didn't win the cup last season, because once again, they didn't score enough goals. If we can bring in more offense at the exepense of the defense taking a slight hit defensively, I'm all for it. We've already found out 2 years now that Henrik can't win the cup on his own (2011/12 and last season) with the team only averaging barely over 2 goals a game...

so yes, I'll take Klein on the 2nd pair at 2.9M if we can bring in some more offense.. and again, paying over 20M for our blueline who outside of Mcdonagh is inept offensively (yes, this includes both stralman and klein!) is a bad bad idea

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Chicago needs a 2nd line center.

We have two of them.

Brassard's RFA rights for Nick Leddy (23 y/o, LD, makes 2.7, skates like McDonagh, RFA next season)

That allows us to trade Staal in a deal for Ryan O'Reilly.


This all fits under even the most modest cap estimates, even with a 13th F and 7th D:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Mats Zuccarello ($4.200m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($6.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Chris Kreider ($2.500m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Danny Kristo ($0.827m)
Daniel Carcillo ($0.825m) / Dominic Moore ($1.600m) / Ryan Carter ($0.900m)
Jesper Fast ($0.805m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
Nick Leddy ($2.700m) / Anton Stralman ($4.000m)
John Moore ($1.500m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Conor Allen ($0.925m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,588,542; BONUSES: $1,295,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $2,511,458

I actually love both of those ideas., that bottom six is not very good though...

 

[Zuccarello Awesome*]

You don't know what they're indicators of because you have no data on how these totals actually correlate with goal prevention. Your whole thesis on without the puck duties versus with the puck duties and what they entail has nothing to back it up. This is just conjecture that you've summoned up on the spot. You have no data telling us how important blocked shots, takeaways, etc are.

You are relying far too much on what numbers are telling you. It's like you'd believe Joe Thornton was a better overall player than Sidney Crosby if some stat indicated such.