Speculation: 2 years away. Do you think Matthews accepts a slight raise OR takes us to the cleaners next contract?

[ACC1224]

History. How often do pro athletes take discounts? Why are Matthewe and Marner any different?

'Discounts' is a vague term.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

'Discounts' is a vague term.

Okay. I believe both Matthews and Marner will not accept any deal below market value.

 

[Jojalu]

History. How often do pro athletes take discounts? Why are Matthewe and Marner any different?

Regardless if they do or don't I think it is ridiculous to think they both walk.

No matter who the GM is there is zero chance that they wouldn't be moved.

Matthews could possibly play out that way, but if it does if talks stalled with Marner they would either move him or sign him

 

[ACC1224]

Okay. I believe both Matthews and Marner will not accept any deal below market value.

Another vague term.
If you think they will take less than what they currently make, they won't and shouldn't be expected to.
Cap% wise I would think they will be around what they currently make.

 

[Sypher04]

Right, this is a sacred space. Just any opinion. Being a Rangers fan has nothing to do with it. I would suggest the same with my own favorite team.

Not a sacred space. But nothing you said resembles a fact and really just comes across as trolling. There are many examples of players leaving money on the table, even stars in the prime of their careers. No one is saying they are gonna just extend at their current numbers while the cap rises or anything, but if you don’t think team success and leaving a little more of the pie for others has crossed their mind, that’s your opinion I guess, but it’s baseless. And to be clear I am on record saying I think Matthews lands somewhere around 14M.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Regardless if they do or don't I think it is ridiculous to think they both walk.

No matter who the GM is there is zero chance that they wouldn't be moved.

Matthews could possibly play out that way, but if it does if talks stalled with Marner they would either move him or sign him

I don't think they will walk either. I think both will get max $$$ deals. Will be interested to see term.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Not a sacred space. But nothing you said resembles a fact and really just comes across as trolling. There are many examples of players leaving money on the table, even stars in the prime of their careers. No one is saying they are gonna just extend at their current numbers while the cap rises or anything, but if you don’t think team success and leaving a little more of the pie for others has crossed their mind, that’s your opinion I guess, but it’s baseless. And to be clear I am on record saying I think Matthews lands somewhere around 14M.

I never said it was a fact. Just an opinion. If you consider my comments trolling all is lost on this board. I actually do think team success or lack thereof does cross their minds but not in the way you think. Anyway, this is all conjecture and I freely admit I'm reading the situation incorrectly.

 

[Morbo]

Market value isn't "taking us to the cleaners", either.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't think they will walk either. I think both will get max $$$ deals. Will be interested to see term.

Has there been a player yet that has taken max dollars?

 

[Zur En Arrh]

The difference between Mack and Matthews, is that Mack earned a cup so deserves the raise, just like when Kane and Toews time came up.

I honestly believe he's seen what these huge contracts have done to the team, and he will sign a more team friendly deal than what he is capable of signing, but he's still going to get paid, he'll just leave some on the table to better position us for success.

Also i don't think he does 8 years, it'll be a bit less with less money because these new figures for the cap see us gaining 10 million in about 4-6 years.

Which mack clearly did all on his own right? Tell me when did mack score 60? When did mack win the hart and Lindsay AND rocket? I'll wait....

 

[Fonzieleaf]

Matthews won’t give two shits that we’re in cap hell. He’s gonna demand the money he deserves no matter what.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Has there been a player yet that has taken max dollars?

Think Brad Richards signed for 20% of the cap (LOL), and only other guy who came close was Ovechkin signing for 19% according to an article I read this morning.

 

[deprw]

Right, this is a sacred space. Just an opinion. Being a Rangers fan has nothing to do with it. I would suggest the same with my own favorite team.

Well, if I go on Oilers board stating this same statement on McDavid and I'll be out in 5 or maybe 10 minutes. This isn't so sacred space. Our global moderator may even support you. You came here with bit on a hot take, so it's bit easier to look as a trolling, than coming here giving honest opinion or tidbit of information.

Though I give you that your franchise and ours share same tendency on paying players what they ask. So you might have some clue on players getting their "fair share".

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Matthews won’t give two shits that we’re in cap hell. He’s gonna demand the money he deserves no matter what.

As he should. He also isn't going to demand the absolute maximum contract possible, I have no idea why people are so concerned that he wants to leave. He loves playing in Toronto, he loves that he is somewhat of celebrity (as much as you can be for a hockey player) which won't really happen for him anywhere else, he's super tight with a lot of guys on the team (especially Bunting and Marner who both want to stay long-term ideally). Think he also wants to leave a legacy on one of the most storied and important franchises who has been desperate for a saviour.

Only thing that would make me even slightly concerned would be if we had two more embarrassing series losses the Montreal series, but even then I don't think he's leaving.

 

[IPS]

If you consider my comments trolling all is lost on this board

Nobody does. It's the standard that's applied here vs the standard that applies basically everywhere else that pisses folks off, and rightfully so.

 

[Fonzieleaf]

As he should. He also isn't going to demand the absolute maximum contract possible, I have no idea why people are so concerned that he wants to leave. He loves playing in Toronto, he loves that he is somewhat of celebrity (as much as you can be for a hockey player) which won't really happen for him anywhere else, he's super tight with a lot of guys on the team (especially Bunting and Marner who both want to stay long-term ideally). Think he also wants to leave a legacy on one of the most storied and important franchises who has been desperate for a saviour.

Only thing that would make me even slightly concerned would be if we had two more embarrassing series losses the Montreal series, but even then I don't think he's leaving.

I agree with everything. I think the biggest reason why people are concerned he’s leaving is because Gaudreau and Tkachuk left their respective Canadian clubs with them being both American and all.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

I agree with everything. I think the biggest reason why people are concerned he’s leaving is because Gaudreau and Tkachuk left their respective Canadian clubs with them being both American and all.

Yeah that’s totally fair. I just think with enough critical thought the situations are not wholly similar and people just want to be pessimistic. And even as a Canadian I wouldn’t want to live in Calgary. Lol

 

[Mess]

Matthews won’t give two shits that we’re in cap hell. He’s gonna demand the money he deserves no matter what.

The projected Salary Cap ceilings for next 3 years.

2022-23 : $82,500,000
2023-24 : $83,500,000
2024-25 : $87,500,000

So when Matthews next contract is due the Salary Cap is expected to be at $87,500,000 and at 20% CBA max = $17.5 mil max

The NHL players association (NHLPA) will be pushing Matthews to raise the bar for the entire players union.

Hard to imagine Matthews taking anything less than $15 mil to stay with the Leafs at a discount, while as a UFA he could get even more.

With the cap expected to rise by $4 mil in his signing year, and even more after that, after a relative flat cap (+1 mil raise) for the last 5 years, Then that will also play a part as his agent will try and get as high a Cap Hit % as possible knowing that in the following years as the cap rises his C.H% for his team will decrease.

 

[Sypher04]

The projected Salary Cap ceilings for next 3 years.

2022-23 : $82,500,000
2023-24 : $83,500,000
2024-25 : $87,500,000

So when Matthews next contract is due the Salary Cap is expected to be at $87,500,000 and at 20% CBA max = $17.5 mil max

The NHL players association (NHLPA) will be pushing Matthews to raise the bar for the entire players union.

Hard to imagine Matthews taking anything less than $15 mil to stay with the Leafs at a discount, while as a UFA he could get even more.

With the cap expected to rise by $4 mil in his signing year, and even more after that, after a relative flat cap (+1 mil raise) for the last 5 years, Then that will also play a part as his agent will try and get as high a Cap Hit % as possible knowing that in the following years as the cap rises his C.H% for his team will decrease.

1) Matthews isn’t going to care at all what the NHLPA is pushing for him to do. He’s gonna make the right decision for himself pure and simple. Whether that’s trying to squeeze ever last cent he can out of his next deal, or whether he wishes to leave a bit so supporting cast can be retained, only time will tell.

2) 20% is the max, technically, but 17% is really the unspoken max and it’s hard to imagine it not remaining so. The optics of pushing as close to 20% as possible are horrible and you’re unlikely to find many, if any, players who would actually do it. As I’ve said, I think he lands between 14-15M but 15M really is the high end that seems plausible

 

[Sypher04]

I never said it was a fact. Just an opinion. If you consider my comments trolling all is lost on this board. I actually do think team success or lack thereof does cross their minds but not in the way you think. Anyway, this is all conjecture and I freely admit I'm reading the situation incorrectly.

You’ll have to excuse my skepticism. It’s in no way personal. For every non-leafs fan we get here showing up in a Matthews related thread honestly sharing their thoughts without trolling intent, we get 25 telling us he is only gonna take a max contract, or already has 1 foot out the door back to the US. eventually it kinda all just looks the same

 

[Mess]

1) Matthews isn’t going to care at all what the NHLPA is pushing for him to do. He’s gonna make the right decision for himself pure and simple. Whether that’s trying to squeeze ever last cent he can out of his next deal, or whether he wishes to leave a bit so supporting cast can be retained, only time will tell.

2) 20% is the max, technically, but 17% is really the unspoken max and it’s hard to imagine it not remaining so. The optics of pushing as close to 20% as possible are horrible and you’re unlikely to find many, if any, players who would actually do it. As I’ve said, I think he lands between 14-15M but 15M really is the high end that seems plausible

$15 mil of a $87.5 Mil ceiling in 2024-25 = 17.14 C.H. % which would be year #1 of his new deal.

However what happens in the cap ceiling continues to rise by $3 mil per as the 2024-25 year is expected to see a $4 mil increase?

$15 mil of a $90.5 mil ceiling in 2025-26 = 16.57 C.H.% in year #2 of his contract.
$15 mil of a $93.5 mil ceiling in 2026-27 = 16.04 C.H.% in year #3 of his contract.

 

[Sypher04]

$15 mil of a $87.5 Mil ceiling in 2024-25 = 17.14 C.H. % which would be year #1 of his new deal.

However what happens in the cap ceiling continues to rise by $3 mil per as the 2024-25 year is expected to see a $4 mil increase?

$15 mil of a $90.5 mil ceiling in 2025-26 = 16.57 C.H.% in year #2 of his contract.
$15 mil of a $93.5 mil ceiling in 2026-27 = 16.04 C.H.% in year #3 of his contract.

The cap percentage at signing is the only relevant percentage. All contracts fall in percentage over the term of the deal. Well, unless a global pandemic freeze the cap.

17.14% is a very high deal, and plausible. But keep in mind even Connor McDavid, as the best player in the world, signed his deal at 16.67% (if memory serves) for 8 years just before Seattle expansion and a new USTV deal everyone knew was coming

Auston could do a lot worse than 16% of the cap in year 3

 

[Mess]

The Leafs percentage at signing is the only relevant percentage. All contracts fall in percentage over the term of the deal. Well, unless a global pandemic freeze the cap.

17.14% is a very high deal. Connor McDavid signed his deal at 16.67% (if memory serves) just before Seattle expansion and a new USTV deal

I'd suggest if Matthews takes his contract to its limit and listens to UFA offers then Leafs percentage will not be only relevant percentage.

With an escalating cap based on the numbers I provided above the 2nd year of that deal would fall below McDavid Cap Hit %.

You must be only talking Matthews re-signing in Toronto at a home town discount.

A poaching team attempt will be higher AAV and $$ and if they're factoring an escalating annual cap then their offer. Capfriendly showing

2023-24 Cap : $83,500,000 & 2024-25 Cap: $87,500,000 (+$4 mil increase) & 2025-26 Cap : $92,000,000 (+ $4.5 increase) ..If you see a Cap ceiling jumping $4 mil a year then a 17% initial signing C.H.% will be only a short-term impact and become less of a concern with each passing year when you have this level of expected ceiling increase to lower its % and create more room for others.

 

[ToneDog]

I'd suggest if Matthews takes his contract to its limit and listens to UFA offers then Leafs percentage will not be only relevant percentage.

With an escalating cap based on the numbers I provided above the 2nd year of that deal would fall below McDavid Cap Hit %.

You must be only talking Matthews re-signing in Toronto at a home town discount.

A poaching team attempt will be higher AAV and $$ and if they're factoring an escalating annual cap then their offer. Capfriendly showing

2023-24 Cap : $83,500,000 & 2024-25 Cap: $87,500,000 (+$4 mil increase) & 2025-26 Cap : $92,000,000 (+ $4.5 increase) ..If you see a Cap ceiling jumping $4 mil a year then a 17% initial signing C.H.% will be only a short-term impact and become less of a concern with each passing year when you have this level of expected ceiling increase to lower its % and create more room for others.

IMO no way do you let it go to the point where 34 listens to UFA offers. If he does not agree to a deal before July 1st, you shop him. Hopefully they gave him a NMC in the final year of the deal knowing they would be able to resign him. If not and he walks, it will be one of the biggest blunders in franchise history.

 

[zeke]

I'd suggest if Matthews takes his contract to its limit and listens to UFA offers then Leafs percentage will not be only relevant percentage.

There's no need for him to do that. Leafs will give him whatever he wants. It's up to him.