Speculation: 2 years away. Do you think Matthews accepts a slight raise OR takes us to the cleaners next contract?

[KPower]

3 years, $48 million.

 

[keonsbitterness]

There's no need for him to do that. Leafs will give him whatever he wants. It's up to him.

And if he wants eight years @ 20%?

 

[Menzinger]

And if he wants eight years @ 20%?

If he commits the next decade of his career to the Leafs I don't care how much they pay him. You find a way to make it work.

That said I expect Matthews camp will be a bit more reasonable than some think.

 

[zeke]

And if he wants eight years @ 20%?

They'll give it to him.

 

[keonsbitterness]

They'll give it to him.

No chance.

 

[zeke]

No chance.

100%

 

[Stephen]

If he commits the next decade of his career to the Leafs I don't care how much they pay him. You find a way to make it work.

That said I expect Matthews camp will be a bit more reasonable than some think.

First days Kypreos comes back on air and it's the same stuff about how people outside the organization think he'll ask for all this, want to grow the game here and there, etc.

 

[keonsbitterness]

100%

Too bad we'll never know.

 

[ACC1224]

And if he wants eight years @ 20%?

The Leafs will pay him but there is no reason to think he will ask for that.

 

[Mess]

Dubas got played last time by Matthews agent Judd Moldaver, when Matthews received one of the leagues highest AAV and Cap Hit % and only needed to sacrifice 1 year of UFA status to achieve it when the entire league knows he should have been locked up for 8 years at that rate. That is why we find ourselves in this situation here to begin with.

However if you look at cap increase projection in the upcoming years they're suggesting + $4 mil increase in 2024 and then +$4.5 mil 2025 with a ceiling up to $92 mil at that point, and + $9.5 mil from this season.

Even If Matthews locks himself in for 8 years now even at 17% CH or $15 mil per AAV, the cap increasing so dramatically that his contact would be undervalued in just a few seasons. So I'm guessing Matthews agent uses the same strategy he did last time and gets Auston a shorter term ~ 3 year deal at $ 15 mil (which should have been already included in his last deal), and then when the cap increases again dramatically by the end of its term we might be looking at a $100 mil cap ceiling.

$15 mil of a $100 mil ceiling is 15% Cap hit %. However if he double dips in 3 years back up to 17% it adds a cool +$2 mil per years AAV from $15 mil to $17 mil and makes sure Auston remains among the highest paid players in the game. The only way otherwise is to give Matthews his $16-17 mil AAV or near 20% on his next deal.

ie MATH

Option #1 : 3 years @ $15 mil (17% CH%) + 5 years @ $17 mil (17 CH%) = next 8 years = $130 mil deal over 2 contracts
or
Option #2: 8 years @ $15 mil (17% CH% ) = $120 mil total (- $10 mil less)
or
Option #3: 8 years @ $16.25 mil (18.57 CH%) ( based projected cap in 2024 @$87,500,000) = $130 mil (same gross revenue for Matthews as Option #1)

By doing 2 shorter term bridge deals (Option #1) = 8 years Matthews at 17 CH% can say he is leaving money on the table by not taking the max 20% but still maximize his earnings over that time while in turn guarantees his contract remains relevant and among the highest in the league. Option #2 leaves $10 mil on the cutting room floor for Matthews in lost wages & Option #3 sets Matthews AAV and Cap Hit % at 18.57 which is the worst option for the Leafs over the 8 years. Thus making Option #1 the best for both sides !!!!

Leafs might want Option #2, but Matthews might only agree to Options #1 or #3 and as a UFA he knows very well if the Leafs don't give him what he wants there will be other teams that gladly will.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas got played last time by Matthews agent Judd Moldaver, when Matthews received one of the leagues highest AAV and Cap Hit % and only needed to sacrifice 1 year of UFA status to achieve it when the entire league knows he should have been locked up for 8 years at that rate.

That is false. Matthews received a contract that was consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts at his term (the most common term). He received the 6th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era after putting up the 5th best pre-signing period in the cap era.

So I'm guessing Matthews agent uses the same strategy he did last time and gets Auston a shorter term

Matthews was fully willing to sign an 8 year deal. They went 5 years so that they could keep the cap hit down and keep the whole core together. By that same strategy of keeping cap hit down and the core together, Matthews would be looking at an 8 year deal, because your math is wrong again, and longer term in UFA equals a lesser cap hit, not a higher one.

 

[Stephen]

I’m happy paying Matthews any cap % that has been established by the likes of other superstars over the years and whatever the cap hit is, so be it. Ideally, the longer the better so things can amortize over the years. The important thing is just not to have a player like John Tavares on an $11 million somewhere else on the roster providing sub optimal value. Luckily that contract is also running out and we’ll only have a one year overlap before JT rides off into the sunset or gets a massive pay cut.

 

[keonsbitterness]

The Leafs will pay him but there is no reason to think he will ask for that.

Unless it's a ploy to hit free agency and leave, I agree. Though Zeke seems to want it to happen for some reason.

 

[thewave]

So long as our top 4 forwards come in at around 60% of the cap

 

[zeke]

Unless it's a ploy to hit free agency and leave, I agree. Though Zeke seems to want it to happen for some reason.

only worse thing than paying him max is losing him.

 

[thewave]

only worse thing than paying him max is losing him.

Yeah that's why getting the best deal you can is so important while they're young. He is worth it though, hope he decides to stick around.

 

[keonsbitterness]

only worse thing than paying him max is losing him.

Losing him and winning the Cup the year after would be worse?

 

[Mess]

Projecting Auston Matthews' next contract against a rising salary cap​

WHAT IF MATTHEWS CHASED EARNING 20 PER CENT OF THE CAP?

Here's where it gets really fun.

There is a maximum that players are allowed to sign for in the NHL, and it's 20 per cent of whatever the salary cap is at the time. No one has played that game since Brad Richards signed a five-year deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning in May of 2006 — a $7.8 million AAV against a $39 million cap. When the deal officially kicked in for the 2006-07 season, the cap had risen to $44 million, which meant Richards' hit really took up 17.7 per cent of the cap when it became active.

The next-highest cap percentage ever signed was Alex Ovechkin's 18.96 on a 13-year pact he inked with Washington in 2008 — and term that is no longer allowed. That contract expired after the 2020-21 season and had an AAV of $9.538 million.

What if Matthews is the player to try and reset the conversation by that measure, instead of just AAV?

Projecting Auston Matthews' next contract against a rising salary cap

When the NHL's salary cap was introduced for the 2005-06 season, the upper limit was set at $39 million. Astounding, when you look where we're at now.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Divine]

I doubt he would ever sign an 8 year deal

He asked Dubas for an 8 year deal as an RFA. Dubas did not want that high of a cap hit, so he offered a 5 year deal instead. If he wants to stay, I'd assume he goes 8 years.

Why do you doubt he would ever sign an 8 year deal when he asked for it on his first contract?

 

[bossram]

I’m happy paying Matthews any cap % that has been established by the likes of other superstars over the years and whatever the cap hit is, so be it. Ideally, the longer the better so things can amortize over the years. The important thing is just not to have a player like John Tavares on an $11 million somewhere else on the roster providing sub optimal value. Luckily that contract is also running out and we’ll only have a one year overlap before JT rides off into the sunset or gets a massive pay cut.

Yep, pay him whatever he wants within the 15-18% cap range. That's what other truly elite players have got.

You figure the rest out around him.

 

[thewave]

There is lots of hockey to be played before we can sign him. We might fail heavily, have new GM and lots of inner turbulence. We can also be Stanley Cup winners and Matthews is hailed as king of the city. Or everything and anything between.

If I have to guess it's from 13.34 million per season to 14.34 million per season and 8 years. Front loaded as hell. Everytime you bet for franchise player to resign you usually win. There is one anomaly last two decades.

In capless world Rangers could overpay him, but in cap world it is hard.

The King of the City never gets old. The way the economy is and things are going anyone who is savvy and can go where they want is looking at... Best contract by % and Term in the State with the lowest Taxes. You know what the best motivator is for him to stay here? Find the man a local area wife that is from a close knit family. No jokes.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

The amount is almost irrelevant, just lock him up for 8 years this time.

 

[inthe6ix]

Get it done KD - as a fan I don't care how much it costs, we have to re-up him.

And as an added bonus, we won't have to hear anymore crap from idiots outside of Leafs Nation that he's bailing on us to go back home to AZ to play there in 2 years or less.

 

[zeke]

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Lol. He won the hart and Lindsay, he's the best player in the NHL. He's getting 15 on an eight year deal which is fine by me. He's a once in a generation player and he's ours. PAY HIM!!!

Technically, as of July 1, 2023, he's not "ours". He owes us the following season, but he holds ALL the cards.