Speculation: 2 years away. Do you think Matthews accepts a slight raise OR takes us to the cleaners next contract?

[Gabriel426]

All I know is that there were only 3 teams that advanced past the first round of the playoffs in the past 4 yrs with players who are on AM’s level or higher.
One of those teams got McD and Drai and only done it once.
The other team won two Cups and made it to the Finals once with Kuch.
The last team was constantly getting knocked out in the 2nd round and won the Cup last season with Mack.

Using the past 4 yrs as ref. 3 of the 4 Cups winner got a player in the caliber of AM. However, most of the teams that advanced past the first round don’t have someone like AM.

The question becomes, is AM really in the same league as Kuch, Drai, and Mack? McD is above them. If so, why can’t he leads the Leafs to the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs, where 5 or 6 of the teams advancing doesn’t even have someone like AM.

No right or wrong answers for now as playoffs will determine AM’s next contract. He can asks for the max and some GM can give it to him but it doesn’t mean Leafs needs to. If the Islanders losing JT can make it to the Conf Finals twice for two years with what they got, the current Leafs roster is miles better than the Islanders roster.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

A similar aged guy who just put up 42 goals in 69 games just got paid 8.5 million x 8 in his contract season. Why exactly are other GMs going to be looking to pay Nylander multiple million more than that?

Because that was an outlier "contract" year for Forsberg. His previous 3 years he wasn't even a 30 goal pace.

Nylander could be crap next year and that changes everything. But I'm saying that if he's as good next year as he is this year, then that would be three ppg seasons averaging around 40 goals.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Because that was an outlier "contract" year for Forsberg. His previous 3 years he wasn't even a 30 goal pace.

Well, I'm glad you finally acknowledged that contracts are more complicated than just taking their biggest year scoring X points and labelling them a "proven X point player" that should all be paid the same. Kind of like how, for example, scoring 70 points after two seasons of 26 and 27 points doesn't suddenly make you worth more than a consistent 60-point player. I hope you remember this in all of your contract discussions.

Nylander could be crap next year and that changes everything. But I'm saying that if he's as good next year as he is this year, then that would be three ppg seasons averaging around 40 goals.

Nylander's probably going to sign before he does anything next year.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Well, I'm glad you finally acknowledged that contracts are more complicated than just taking their biggest year scoring X points and labelling them a "proven X point player" that should all be paid the same. Kind of like how, for example, scoring 70 points after two seasons of 26 and 27 points doesn't suddenly make you worth more than a consistent 60-point player. I hope you remember this in all of your contract discussions.

Nylander's probably going to sign before he does anything next year.

Yes, ufa contracts for 28 year olds where the player holds literally all the leverage is significantly more complicated than a teenagers contract where the gm hold literally all the leverage.

Lol, we're comparing one outlier season for a player with 12 years nhl experience. Not someone at the end of elc.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes, ufa contracts for 28 year olds where the player holds literally all the leverage is significantly more complicated than a teenagers contract where the gm hold literally all the leverage.
Lol, we're comparing one outlier season for a player with 12 years nhl experience. Not someone at the end of elc.

They are not teenagers, and while the sample is smaller, the exact same principle applies - you can't just look at points in one season, ignore the why and the progression and everything that came before and alongside it, and label players as that, expecting all similar labels to be paid the same. You finally acknowledged this fact, and now you're trying to backtrack on it because it exposes how wrong your arguments were when trying to justify the "unprecedented dramatic overpayment" claims.

Also, while there is generally greater leverage for a player in UFA than earlier contracts, it is not this one-sided all leverage or no leverage scenario that you're trying to paint it as, and player leverage increases in all situations as their quality increases.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

They are not teenagers, and while the sample is smaller, the exact same principle applies - you can't just look at points in one season, ignore the why and the progression and everything that came before and alongside it, and label players as that, expecting all similar labels to be paid the same. You finally acknowledged this fact, and now you're trying to backtrack on it because it exposes how wrong your arguments were when trying to justify the "unprecedented dramatic overpayment" claims.

Also, while there is generally greater leverage for a player in UFA than earlier contracts, it is not this one-sided all leverage or no leverage scenario that you're trying to paint it as, and player leverage increases in all situations as their quality increases.

I have long taken the position that the player you become by your third elc year is much more heavily weighted than your rookie/sophomore years. It's not comparable to a player with TWELVE YEARS EXPERIENCE with only one outlier season (being their, lol, first ufa contract year).

So, you do seem to acknowledge that one strange outlier season at the age of 28 shouldn't count as much as what (younger) Nlyander did last year, is doing this year, and will likely to continue next year, right? So, based on your precise argument, Nylander should make significantly more than forsberg, right? Aren't Nylanders stats more in the JT final three seasons before ufa tier? 11X7 was a "bargain", right? Jeez, with the cap being higher by then, Nylander sure is going to make a f*** ton of money, right? Based on YOUR arguments.

THEY hold the leverage this time Dekes. THEY!!!!

 

[geo25]

All I know is that there were only 3 teams that advanced past the first round of the playoffs in the past 4 yrs with players who are on AM’s level or higher.
One of those teams got McD and Drai and only done it once.
The other team won two Cups and made it to the Finals once with Kuch.
The last team was constantly getting knocked out in the 2nd round and won the Cup last season with Mack.

Using the past 4 yrs as ref. 3 of the 4 Cups winner got a player in the caliber of AM. However, most of the teams that advanced past the first round don’t have someone like AM.

The question becomes, is AM really in the same league as Kuch, Drai, and Mack? McD is above them. If so, why can’t he leads the Leafs to the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs, where 5 or 6 of the teams advancing doesn’t even have someone like AM.

No right or wrong answers for now as playoffs will determine AM’s next contract. He can asks for the max and some GM can give it to him but it doesn’t mean Leafs needs to. If the Islanders losing JT can make it to the Conf Finals twice for two years with what they got, the current Leafs roster is miles better than the Islanders roster.

You've made some excellent observations. Do we want a collection of superstars or a team that can possibly win us the Cup?

 

[Gabriel426]

You've made some excellent observations. Do we want a collection of superstars or a team that can possibly win us the Cup?

I believe all fans should aim at a team winning the Cup instead of having the best player or few of the best players in the league on a team.
Leafs could be with a whole bunch of Engvall, Kerfoot and Holl even if they scrap their way to the playoffs but as long as they win the Cup, these players will be remember as the great players who led the Leafs to the Cup since 67 and whoever that win the Conn Symthe should be the next player on Legends Row and even have his number honor.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I have long taken the position that the player you become by your third elc year is much more heavily weighted than your rookie/sophomore years. It's not comparable to a player with TWELVE YEARS EXPERIENCE with only one outlier season (being their, lol, first ufa contract year). So, you do seem to acknowledge that one strange outlier season at the age of 28 shouldn't count as much as what (younger) Nlyander did last year, is doing this year, and will likely to continue next year, right? So, based on your precise argument, Nylander should make significantly more than forsberg, right?

Most of your arguments have been based on the idea that we take their final year point total, ignore everything that happened prior, their progression, all context involved in the production, etc. and pay everybody based on exclusively that, but that's not how this works. Even a slightly higher weight doesn't mean throwing everything else out. It has informational value. It seems you realize that, even if you try and selectively apply it.

Forsberg doesn't have 12 years in this league, btw, and while he's not paid entirely on that final year, it still exists, and he has had other good years. Nylander should make more than him, but not significantly more than him.

Aren't Nylanders stats more in the JT final three seasons before ufa tier?

No, Nylander is not in Tavares' tier, as I already explained to you in my previous post.

"For the record, a consistent PPG center, in a lower scoring era, in a worse situation to produce, is not the same as a winger peaking at PPG in a higher scoring era as the secondary driver on his line. To give a bit of perspective, Nylander is 36th in the league in P/GP since 2019. Tavares was 8th in the league over the same ages. Teams will not be willing to pay for Nylander like they would have for Tavares."

THEY hold the leverage this time Dekes. THEY!!!!

They always held significant leverage. The leverage situations, especially for top tier players, is not as all or nothing as you try to paint it as.
Everything has indicated that they just want to be paid what they're worth, and nobody should have an issue with that.

 

[Smif]

Who else can pay one guy 15M, is there another team? Why are we entertaining paying him too dollar when he's not the top player. Full stop for me, just straight up bad business. We come off as desperate to even entertain the idea.