Speculation: 2 years away. Do you think Matthews accepts a slight raise OR takes us to the cleaners next contract?

[rielledup]

He is going to get top dollar, but good chance it is not in Toronto. Odds are he leaves Toronto for LA or Arizona.

I've said this before on here but I've always liked the idea of an AM for Byfield and Turcotte trade, although I'm liking it less with how slow those two have been developing. If those can turn things around and look like they are on track to be a solid number 1 and 2 center, I think it's a great trade for both teams.

 

[Peasy]

I've said this before on here but I've always liked the idea of an AM for Byfield and Turcotte trade, although I'm liking it less with how slow those two have been developing. If those can turn things around and look like they are on track to be a solid number 1 and 2 center, I think it's a great trade for both teams.

That would be a god awful trade holy shit.

Nothing Byfield has shown since getting drafted screams a top C.

Turcotte is just an injury wasteland. His D+4 and hes not even a big producer in the AHL despite bein drafted top 5.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Look at what these guys did to our rookie gm when Dubas had all the leverage. Their choices were "play for like minimum wage in Europe or accept however many millions Dubas offers me". And they still took him to the cleaners.

Now the players have all the leverage. ALL of it.

It's not going to be pretty.

Due to our cap hell, look at how our offseasons work. Reclamation projects on goaltending that works half the time at best. And a shuffling of cheap role players on the bottom lines.

And it's going to be worse.

Matthews will demand around $16 mil. Which leads to the inevitable problem that Marner wants to be paid similarly to Matthews. He now has ALL the leverage. I'm not sure if he'll accept even a penny less. I'll be generous and say he settles on $15 mil.

Nylander was a proven (lol) 20 goal/60 point player with ZERO leverage (he didn't even have the "offersheet" fake leverage) and he was still able to laughably negotiate the Pastrnak contract. Now that he holds all the leverage and is a ppg 35 goal scorer (at least), he'll demand the moon and will be willing to play the open market against itself. I see him getting no less than 11 million.

So that's 42 mil on THREE players. Which is going to be damn well near 50% of the cap at the time. They're all going to have nmc's every year of their contract (because... Dubas).

This isn't sustainable. One of them has to be traded for goaltending and defensive depth. It's that simple. Otherwise we're going to lose 1 of them for literally nothing.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Look at what these guys did to our rookie gm when Dubas had all the leverage.

The players had plenty of leverage last time, and they settled on fair deals consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. There's no reason to expect anything other than fair contracts again.

Due to our cap hell, look at how our offseasons work. Reclamation projects on goaltending that works half the time at best. And a shuffling of cheap role players on the bottom lines.

We're not in cap hell, and that's a pretty big misrepresentation of our offseasons. Our goaltending spending has remained pretty much the same as it was prior to the big contracts, and we currently have two goalies performing really well. Our 3rd line isn't even that cheap, and we have good depth.
Throwing money at goaltending and depth forwards doesn't really do much other than give you inefficient cap anchors.

And it's going to be worse.

No, it's not going to be worse, because the whole problem was the flat cap, which is just about done.

Matthews will demand around $16 mil.

No, he won't. Your estimates on all of the contracts are way off.

They're all going to have nmc's every year of their contract (because... Dubas).

No, not because Dubas. Because those are pretty standard for those kinds of players.

One of them has to be traded for goaltending and defensive depth.

That's a horrible idea. We already have two goalies performing well, and we're already a top-tier defensive team that already has too many NHL defenders.

 

[TakeTheBody]

Cleaners. Hello?

 

[Americanadian]

Look at what these guys did to our rookie gm when Dubas had all the leverage. Their choices were "play for like minimum wage in Europe or accept however many millions Dubas offers me". And they still took him to the cleaners.

Now the players have all the leverage. ALL of it.

It's not going to be pretty.

Due to our cap hell, look at how our offseasons work. Reclamation projects on goaltending that works half the time at best. And a shuffling of cheap role players on the bottom lines.

And it's going to be worse.

Matthews will demand around $16 mil. Which leads to the inevitable problem that Marner wants to be paid similarly to Matthews. He now has ALL the leverage. I'm not sure if he'll accept even a penny less. I'll be generous and say he settles on $15 mil.

Nylander was a proven (lol) 20 goal/60 point player with ZERO leverage (he didn't even have the "offersheet" fake leverage) and he was still able to laughably negotiate the Pastrnak contract. Now that he holds all the leverage and is a ppg 35 goal scorer (at least), he'll demand the moon and will be willing to play the open market against itself. I see him getting no less than 11 million.

So that's 42 mil on THREE players. Which is going to be damn well near 50% of the cap at the time. They're all going to have nmc's every year of their contract (because... Dubas).

This isn't sustainable. One of them has to be traded for goaltending and defensive depth. It's that simple. Otherwise we're going to lose 1 of them for literally nothing.

I’d guess you’re looking at 14 (Matthews), 12 (Marner), 9 (Nylander). In reality they should get 13, 11, 8.

 

[GrizzGreen]

I've said this before on here but I've always liked the idea of an AM for Byfield and Turcotte trade, although I'm liking it less with how slow those two have been developing. If those can turn things around and look like they are on track to be a solid number 1 and 2 center, I think it's a great trade for both teams.

two AHL players... nice

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The players had plenty of leverage last time, and they settled on fair deals consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. There's no reason to expect anything other than fair contracts again.

We're not in cap hell, and that's a pretty big misrepresentation of our offseasons. Our goaltending spending has remained pretty much the same as it was prior to the big contracts, and we currently have two goalies performing really well. Our 3rd line isn't even that cheap, and we have good depth.
Throwing money at goaltending and depth forwards doesn't really do much other than give you inefficient cap anchors.

No, it's not going to be worse, because the whole problem was the flat cap, which is just about done.

No, he won't. Your estimates on all of the contracts are way off.

No, not because Dubas. Because those are pretty standard for those kinds of players.

That's a horrible idea. We already have two goalies performing well, and we're already a top-tier defensive team that already has too many NHL defenders.

What do you think Matthews, Marner, and Nylander will sign for? Based on their greed and the fact that they now actually have leverage, my guess is just over 40 mil overall. You really think it will be lower?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I’d guess you’re looking at 14 (Matthews), 12 (Marner), 9 (Nylander). In reality they should get 13, 11, 8.

Do you think they could get more than that on the open market? I do. All 3 of them. Their ufa's now. They're the ones who hold all the leverage. And if they can get more on the open market, they'll demand that to stay here.

These are not the kind of guys that have proven to take any semblance of a discount.

 

[Americanadian]

Do you think they could get more than that on the open market? I do. All 3 of them. Their ufa's now. They're the ones who hold all the leverage. And if they can get more on the open market, they'll demand that to stay here.

These are not the kind of guys that have proven to take any semblance of a discount.

I don’t. Gaudreau just got <10M on the open market. The media was speculating Kadri would get up to 9M at the beginning of this past off season. I don’t think a team would give Matthews more than 14M.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What do you think Matthews, Marner, and Nylander will sign for? Based on their greed and the fact that they now actually have leverage, my guess is just over 40 mil overall. You really think it will be lower?

They haven't shown "greed". They've shown a desire to be paid what they've earned and not be shortchanged for things outside of their control, like everybody else. There is zero chance the 3 of them will combine for 40m+. Pretty much worse case scenario possible is like 38m, and even that is incredibly unlikely and would require some improbable scenarios combining and a significant jump in the cap in 2024.

 

[Peasy]

Do you think they could get more than that on the open market? I do. All 3 of them. Their ufa's now. They're the ones who hold all the leverage. And if they can get more on the open market, they'll demand that to stay here.

These are not the kind of guys that have proven to take any semblance of a discount.

I really doubt teams would be willing to give way more than that... Matthews is the only one I could see being offered a crazy amount, but at 14m he would be the highest paid player in the league by over 1m. There are currently 0 wingers that make over 12m. Gaudreau coming off of 115 points didn't get over 10m. Marner will likely get a slight raise and that's it.

For nylander, I don't think teams are lining up to give him 10m+ based on his entire career history. Around 9m sure, because that's where his comparables would likely fall.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

They haven't shown "greed". They've shown a desire to be paid what they've earned and not be shortchanged for things outside of their control, like everybody else. There is zero chance the 3 of them will combine for 40m+. Pretty much worse case scenario possible is like 38m, and even that is incredibly unlikely and would require some improbable scenarios combining and a significant jump in the cap in 2024.

Let's do just Nylander. He was a ppg 35 goal scorer last year, and this year is pacing for 45 goals/90 points. If he does as well next year, you don't believe he'd fetch a kings ransom on the open market?

Those stats are considerably better than JT's last 3 years before ufa. He got 11 mil.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I don’t. Gaudreau just got <10M on the open market. The media was speculating Kadri would get up to 9M at the beginning of this past off season. I don’t think a team would give Matthews more than 14M.

Gaudreau was 29 when that contract started. Matthews will be 26 when his new contract begins. You're getting pretty much all prime years with Matthews. You're lucky to get 4 years of prime years with Gaudreau.

Let's look at another comparable. Tavares. Guy was averaging 30 goals/80 points. Got 11 mil. Compare that to Matthews numbers and how much younger he is. Things will get dicey...

 

[Dekes For Days]

Let's do just Nylander. He was a ppg 35 goal scorer last year, and this year is pacing for 45 goals/90 points. If he does as well next year, you don't believe he'd fetch a kings ransom on the open market? Those stats are considerably better than JT's last 3 years before ufa. He got 11 mil.

You seem to think that you can just look at the point total that a player put up in their most recent season, with no context, label them a "proven X point player", and then all "proven X point players" make the exact same or they're "unprecedented dramatic overpayments". That's not how any of this works.

For the record, a consistent PPG center, in a lower scoring era, in a worse situation to produce, is not the same as a winger peaking at PPG in a higher scoring era as the secondary driver on his line. To give a bit of perspective, Nylander is 36th in the league in P/GP since 2019. Tavares was 8th in the league over the same ages. Teams will not be willing to pay for Nylander like they would have for Tavares.

Nylander is a really good player and he will be paid as such, but this 8-figure fearmongering is not really supported by anything. Both he and Matthews likely extend this offseason for reasonable amounts, Marner likely extends the next offseason for a reasonable amount (and I feel like this would be capped at Matthews' AAV, even if the cap skyrockets) and Tavares likely re-signs when his contract is done for a significant discount.

 

[BlueBaron]

All indicators are he wants to be here and he wants to win. 12.5 to 13 but probably only 5 years is my best guess.

 

[34]

I've said this before on here but I've always liked the idea of an AM for Byfield and Turcotte trade, although I'm liking it less with how slow those two have been developing. If those can turn things around and look like they are on track to be a solid number 1 and 2 center, I think it's a great trade for both teams.

Chances are, Toronto will be forced to trade Auston. Most likely the same way that tkachuk and gaudreau did. I think LA is where he wants to be…that is where his girlfriend lives and works.

 

[Americanadian]

Gaudreau was 29 when that contract started. Matthews will be 26 when his new contract begins. You're getting pretty much all prime years with Matthews. You're lucky to get 4 years of prime years with Gaudreau.

Let's look at another comparable. Tavares. Guy was averaging 30 goals/80 points. Got 11 mil. Compare that to Matthews numbers and how much younger he is. Things will get dicey...

Gaudreau is a comparable for Marner. Matthews you can compare to Tavares.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Matthews takes a massive discount so TOR can fit McDavid and Bedard under the cap.

 

[Stephen]

What do you think Matthews, Marner, and Nylander will sign for? Based on their greed and the fact that they now actually have leverage, my guess is just over 40 mil overall. You really think it will be lower?

If we could get the three on an average of $12.5 million, in a new CBA/ big inflation economy, I think that's the correct ballpark. That works out to $37.5 million.


Matthews gets $12.5 million as a base.

Marner would get the $12.5 million, locked in.

Nylander gets $10 million as a base.

Matthews/Nylander split the final $2.5 million like a wishbone.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I'd be willing to offer the MacKinnon contract+inflation, 12.75x8. Any cap hit above that and I'd strongly consider a trade.

 

[KPower]

Trade him to Arizona for Bedard.

 

[ToneDog]

If we could get the three on an average of $12.5 million, in a new CBA/ big inflation economy, I think that's the correct ballpark. That works out to $37.5 million.


Matthews gets $12.5 million as a base.

Marner would get the $12.5 million, locked in.

Nylander gets $10 million as a base.

Matthews/Nylander split the final $2.5 million like a wishbone.

Make Matty highest paid @ 13mx8. Wait to see what Pasta signs for before signing Willie. Given what Gaudreau, Fiala, Forsberg, Thompson, Robertson, and Tkachuk signed for, the most I pay Willie is $8.88x8m. Now if they make a deep run, I might be more generous.

Lose in round #1 again and they reject those offers, I trade them.

 

[ToneDog]

Trade him to Arizona for Bedard.

plus Chychrun (Zona asking 2 first and a prospect) Crouse and Hayton ??

 

[Menzinger]

History is quickly forgotten. Remember the good ol days like in 2012 when Dion had the highest cap % of like 11%? Not exactly like the team turned that mountain of capspace into a contender, or even a team that can make the playoffs lol.

Careful what you wish for is all I'll say here. Past Leafs fans would have done anything to resign the best goal scoring centre in the NHL, would have found squabbling over 500k-1mil to be utterly absurd

Let's do just Nylander. He was a ppg 35 goal scorer last year, and this year is pacing for 45 goals/90 points. If he does as well next year, you don't believe he'd fetch a kings ransom on the open market?

Those stats are considerably better than JT's last 3 years before ufa. He got 11 mil.

A similar aged guy who just put up 42 goals in 69 games just got paid 8.5 million x 8 in his contract season. Why exactly are other GMs going to be looking to pay Nylander multiple million more than that?