1.8 Goals Per Game... Seriously.

[Gary Nylund]

The problem is those two homers composed of maybe 25% of this forums posts (although they won’t turn up right now) and suck the energy out of these boards with their delusional rationalization instead of just giving credit where its due and not making excuses

Well said! I keep reading about how awesome we are and how whether or not we win doesn't matter, f***ing tiresome is what it is.

 

[ruaware41]

The best hockey player on earth has been held pointless two games in a row this post season. The notion of a hot goalie isn't something that's randomly brought up during the playoffs, we seem many examples of it throughout the year.

That doesn't excuse the Leafs core of all criticisms - they are expected (and paid) not produce and need to find a way to overcome these challenges - but players can do the right things during a game and still not be able to pull out a win. That's just part of sports

Good teams win some and lose some. Sometimes they lose when they’re favourites and win when they’re underdogs.

Not just lose for 4 years in a row. Has there been any core that lost 4 first round series in a row that went on to win the cup at some point? Not even early days Washington who had a rep for choking were this bad.

 

[egd27]

That doesn't excuse the Leafs core of all criticisms - they are expected (and paid) not produce and need to find a way to overcome these challenges - but players can do the right things during a game and still not be able to pull out a win. That's just part of sports

Occasionally, not habitually.

 

[Menzinger]

Good teams win some and lose some. Sometimes they lose when they’re favourites and win when they’re underdogs.

Not just lose for 4 years in a row. Has there been any core that lost 4 first round series in a row that went on to win the cup at some point? Not even early days Washington who had a rep for choking were this bad.

For half of those the core were rookie and sophomore NHLers though. Neither Crosby not Ovie's teams even made the playoffs as rookies.

I don't think the fact the Leafs made progress earlier than expected here should be viewed as a negative. Not to mention the team as a whole is pretty different than it was 4 seasons ago.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The best hockey player on earth has been held pointless two games in a row this post season. The notion of a hot goalie isn't something that's randomly brought up during the playoffs, we seem many examples of it throughout the year.

That doesn't excuse the Leafs core of all criticisms - they are expected (and paid) not produce and need to find a way to overcome these challenges - but players can do the right things during a game and still not be able to pull out a win. That's just part of sports

One of these teams is Tampa, the other is Florida.

Team A 5-on-5:
14th in xGF% (13th worst xGF/60 and 13th worst xGA/60).
13th in SCF/60
16th in SCA/60.
14th in HDCF/60
13th in HDCA/60.
9th in save percentage

Team B 5-on-5:
3rd in xGF% (4th in xGF/60 and 4th in xGA/60)
1st in SCF/60
4th in SCA/60
4th in HDCF/60
3rd in HDCA/60
16th in save percentage

Team A PP:
5th in xGF/60
11th in SCF/60
10th in HDCF/60

Team B PP:
1st in xGF/60 (twice as much as Team A)
1st in SCF/60
1st in HDCF/60

Team A PK:
16th in xGA/60
16th in SCA/60
16th in HDCA/60
13th in save percentage

Team B PK:
12th in xGA/60
6th in HDCA/60
7th in HDCA/60
16th in save percentage (53%)

I think people can guess who is winning and who is not.

 

[Menzinger]

Occasionally, not habitually.

Is it habitually though?

I'd say the team earned criticisms for the Columbus series. Otherwise the Leafs have lost to better teams in the playoffs so far

 

[ruaware41]

For half of those the core were rookie and sophomore NHLers though. Neither Crosby not Ovie's teams even made the playoffs as rookies.

I don't think the fact the Leafs made progress earlier than expected here should be viewed as a negative. Not to mention the team as a whole is pretty different than it was 4 seasons ago.

Pretty sure Crosby won the cup by his 4th year. Good teams sometimes exceed expectations rather than succumb to or fall short of them exclusively.
Even Ovi made the 2nd round by his 4th year in the league. I don’t think I’m holding the leafs to an unreasonable standard based on earlier success. It’s pretty tit for tat.

Alex Ovechkin Stats and News

It’s because of fans overrating the players and the team giving them a false sense of ego that we pay more to sign our stars than other teams do and we do this crap every year sadly. I still saw a post on the Leafs board as late as a few weeks ago that said Matthews is better than McDavid and the best player in the league. It also puts unnecessary pressure on the players.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yes, because their scoring dried up on their way to the Cup last year...

You brought up this year, not last year.

They weren't dominant offensively last year either for the record. People forget that it took them 5OT's to beat Korpisalo in Game 1 of their series and they only scored 9 goals in the first 4 games of that series. 9th in GF/60, and not top 5 in any offensive category.

Their offense is playing worse this year than last year, and their defense and goaltending (arguably the two larger factors in their wins) are not doing as well this year either.

As I said, Tampa's offense is heavily inflated by Florida's lack of goaltending... And they would be lucky to continue facing teams with this level of poor goaltending throughout the playoffs. So unless their team drastically improves, they won't last long in the playoffs.

See Post #105 and figure out which is Tampa and which is Florida. Either way, neither are teams that look like they are going to win with the way those numbers look. Team B can't have the worst goaltending in the playoffs, and Team A can't be below average in almost every category.

 

[egd27]

Is it habitually though?

I'd say the team earned criticisms for the Columbus series. Otherwise the Leafs have lost to better teams in the playoffs so far

I seem to recall seeing the "deserved to win" meter pretty regularly after losses. If those are correct this team appears to do "everything right" in an awful lot of their losses. Hence my use of the word habitually.

 

[Gallagbi]

I seem to recall seeing the "deserved to win" meter pretty regularly after losses. If those are correct this team appears to do "everything right" in an awful lot of their losses. Hence my use of the word habitually.

Do you mean this year or last playoff?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The best hockey player on earth has been held pointless two games in a row this post season. The notion of a hot goalie isn't something that's randomly brought up during the playoffs, we seem many examples of it throughout the year.

That doesn't excuse the Leafs core of all criticisms - they are expected (and paid) not produce and need to find a way to overcome these challenges - but players can do the right things during a game and still not be able to pull out a win. That's just part of sports

What you call "hot goalie" I call a poor McDavid performance.

Oilers fans aren't saying "Meh, other goalie's playing well. McDavid's been great" No. They're pissed. And rightfully so.

 

[Menzinger]

Pretty sure Crosby won the cup by his 4th year. Good teams sometimes exceed expectations rather than succumb to or fall short of them exclusively.
Even Ovi made the 2nd round by his 4th year in the league. I don’t think I’m holding the leafs to an unreasonable standard based on earlier success. It’s pretty tit for tat.

Alex Ovechkin Stats and News

It’s because of fans overrating the players and the team giving them a false sense of ego that we pay more to sign our stars than other teams do and we do this crap every year sadly. I still saw a post on the Leafs board as late as a few weeks ago that said Matthews is better than McDavid and the best player in the league. It also puts unnecessary pressure on the players.

If the team goes on a deep push this playoffs that puts them more or less in line with the timelines of those other players.

The younger guys on the team are just really starting to hit their primes over the last couple seasons. I can't speak to other posters hyping the team but I don't see anything wrong with thinking this team is a good one (because it is)

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Is it habitually though?

I'd say the team earned criticisms for the Columbus series. Otherwise the Leafs have lost to better teams in the playoffs so far

If it happens this year again can we call it "habitually"? Because if they're great the rest of the series that of course changes everything.

 

[egd27]

Do you mean this year or last playoff?

I was mostly referring to this past season. But concept of "the better team lost" can be applied pretty much anywhere.

My point was, yes that can happen, but when it happens too often, you have to ask why.

 

[Gallagbi]

I was mostly referring to this past season. But concept of "the better team lost" can be applied pretty much anywhere.

My point was, yes that can happen, but when it happens too often, you have to ask why.

We won the vast majority of games this year, so it isn't happening all that often, especially when you consider something like the Deserve to win meter is percentage based.

I think this is the breaking point for this core. You had some series they shouldn't have been expected to win, and last year's that slipped away. If they can't beat this MTL team, then I expect at least one of the big 4 gone if not more.

 

[Menzinger]

I seem to recall seeing the "deserved to win" meter pretty regularly after losses. If those are correct this team appears to do "everything right" in an awful lot of their losses. Hence my use of the word habitually.

I don't think that's unique to the Leafs.

 

[Menzinger]

If it happens this year again can we call it "habitually"? Because if they're great the rest of the series that of course changes everything.

Sure. And we shouldn't blink if that happens.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I was mostly referring to this past season. But concept of "the better team lost" can be applied pretty much anywhere.

My point was, yes that can happen, but when it happens too often, you have to ask why.

Is there an obvious fix? We can fire Dubas and Keefe and trade Nylander for a powerforward, I don't think that changes so much that we're a 3rd round team in our sleep. Even something bigger like turning Marner into a top-6 winger and a big two way D seems like treading water.

 

[egd27]

We won the vast majority of games this year, so it isn't happening all that often, especially when you consider something like the Deserve to win meter is percentage based.

I think this is the breaking point for this core. You had some series they shouldn't have been expected to win, and last year's that slipped away. If they can't beat this MTL team, then I expect at least one of the big 4 gone if not more.

I was fine with the Washington series and the first Bruins series.

I thought they should have beat Boston in 2019 and definitely should have beat Columbus last season.

I agree that if they can't get past Montreal, then some significant changes need to be made. But (and I don't like saying this) I can see the injury to JT being another get out of jail free card.

I don't think that's unique to the Leafs.

Maybe not, but they're the team I follow and I sure hear "if they play that game 10 times, the Leafs win 8" often enough.

So.......they are playing it 7 times, they best win 4.

Is there an obvious fix?

Probably not, if it was obvious, it would have been fixed

 

[Coaches Coroner]

the amount of pouting one loss where a freak injury happened to our captain has caused is hilarious

 

[ruaware41]

If the team goes on a deep push this playoffs that puts them more or less in line with the timelines of those other players.

The younger guys on the team are just really starting to hit their primes over the last couple seasons. I can't speak to other posters hyping the team but I don't see anything wrong with thinking this team is a good one (because it is)

Hyping is fine man. It’s the perpetual overrating, excuse making, and unjustified takes bordering on delusion and the serious overrating of players prior to earning it that some level headed people take issue with

 

[egd27]

the amount of pouting one loss where a freak injury happened to our captain has caused is hilarious

The thread is discussing the lack of goals scored in recent playoff games. After another 1 goal performance, IMO it's fair game to discuss.

 

[ruaware41]

the amount of pouting one loss where a freak injury happened to our captain has caused is hilarious

Pray to Allah they win tonight. Starting 0-2 at home and winning is very rare historically. This game has an insane amount of significance. For the series, for the core, for the playoffs.

 

[Azail]

It would be nice if Matthews took the team on his back like Mack does for Colorado. Kadri went out for them, and I had no doubt they would still win their next game. JT goes out for us and I really have no idea what to expect tonight.

 

[ruaware41]

It would be nice if Matthews took the team on his back like Mack does for Colorado. Kadri went out for them, and I had no doubt they would still win their next game. JT goes out for us and I really have no idea what to expect tonight.

If they win tonight imo they take the series