Boston Bruins Your roster changes / proposals XI

[Bruinfanatic]

Giving Studnicka a shot at 2C is worth the risk. And the risk is mitigated by Coyle being available, healthy and willing. If Studs proves he's a fit for that line it eliminates the need to trade for a Dvorak or Monahan, for example. Those assets can be better used at the trade deadline.

Keeping moves in house is a win-win, considering the exorbitant cost to acquire a proven center.

He wasn’t good enough last year to be the third or fourth line Center,when Coyle and Kuraly were both dreadful,but we’re hoping he can be the number 2 Center this season,why do I feel we’re going to be waiting for another number 2 Center like we did for some legitimate number 2 wingers.

 

[gvkmedia]

Charlie Coyle as number 2 center and Matt Grzlyk as a top 4 D get you a lottery pick. Not a good one because the Bergeron line and McAvoy will win a enough games to not be Arizona/Buffalo awful.

Good news is that should be the end of Sweeney and Cassidy.

This is so typical of this board. Not just you Fenian24 - but I take your post as an example. I am the optimistic type - I admit, but to think that the Bruins - as constructed right now - are a lottery team?

You have your right to say whatever but from my perspective this sounds more like you trying to get a rise out of people that an actual educated statement.

You got me to respond.

As you were.

 

[Ratty]

He wasn’t good enough last year to be the third or fourth line Center,when Coyle and Kuraly were both dreadful,but we’re hoping he can be the number 2 Center this season,why do I feel we’re going to be waiting for another number 2 Center like we did for some legitimate number 2 wingers.

All I'm suggesting is that he be given a shot. According to Divver he's added weight and muscle and has stayed around this off season and is working out hard.

 

[Tbaybruin]

Charlie Coyle as number 2 center and Matt Grzlyk as a top 4 D get you a lottery pick. Not a good one because the Bergeron line and McAvoy will win a enough games to not be Arizona/Buffalo awful.

Good news is that should be the end of Sweeney and Cassidy.

If we get top notch goaltending we will be ok. I think Grizz is a good #4 guy in the regular season. #6 in PO.

 

[Bruinfanatic]

All I'm suggesting is that he be given a shot. According to Divver he's added weight and muscle and has stayed around this off season and is working out hard.

Let’s hope

 

[TD Charlie]

All I'm suggesting is that he be given a shot. According to Divver he's added weight and muscle and has stayed around this off season and is working out hard.

His puck possession and general pursuit was stellar for that contract year playoffs. Once he got paid his game failed the eye test, day 1.

Coyle CAN BE good enough for this 2nd line to work. However, I just hate that Sweeney knew of the holes prior to free agency, and yet we are once again hoping that a bottom 6 (or AHL) player takes a leap in career progression. They've allowed their season to hinge on this concept for too many consecutive years and it's pissing me off

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

His puck possession and general pursuit was stellar for that contract year playoffs. Once he got paid his game failed the eye test, day 1.

Coyle CAN BE good enough for this 2nd line to work. However, I just hate that Sweeney knew of the holes prior to free agency, and yet we are once again hoping that a bottom 6 (or AHL) player takes a leap in career progression. They've allowed their season to hinge on this concept for too many consecutive years and it's pissing me off

Its August.

They don't need a second line center today.

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

Giving Studnicka a shot at 2C is worth the risk. And the risk is mitigated by Coyle being available, healthy and willing. If Studs proves he's a fit for that line it eliminates the need to trade for a Dvorak or Monahan, for example. Those assets can be better used at the trade deadline.

Keeping moves in house is a win-win, considering the exorbitant cost to acquire a proven center.

I personally disagree with deadline deals being the time to build the team. Deadline prices are usually higher, unless you are buying rentals, in which I don't think the team should be investing in those.

1st and a solid goalie prospect moved for Sam Reinhert this off-season.

How many years did we give up firsts + solid prospects for guys that wore the jersey less than a half a year? They were better about it last year (since all of the acquisitions are here on the roster today), but most of the previous years, we sunk assets into rentals, that was a loss long term because the rental didn't push us over the edge and we are out a handful of assets that could have been packaged for a long term player.

 

[PlayMakers]

Most projections I've read have the Bruins at 102-106 points with awful goaltending and awful special teams.

Forwards, defensemen, 5on5 offense and defense are all at or near the top of the league (top7 at least). But goaltending, power play and penalty kill are all projecting to be bottom third (24th or worse).

I'm not sure what the reason for that is... I guess losing Kuraly, Wagner and Lauzon were three really busy PK'ers for us last year, but we added guys who PK. And I think the PP projections are because they don't see McAvoy as a good PP guy, plus the loss of Krejci, but neither of those guys played on our top PP unit during the regular season, so I think that might be a bit off.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Most projections I've read have the Bruins at 102-106 points with awful goaltending and awful special teams.

Forwards, defensemen, 5on5 offense and defense are all at or near the top of the league (top7 at least). But goaltending, power play and penalty kill are all projecting to be bottom third (24th or worse).

I'm not sure what the reason for that is... I guess losing Kuraly, Wagner and Lauzon were three really busy PK'ers for us last year, but we added guys who PK. And I think the PP projections are because they don't see McAvoy as a good PP guy, plus the loss of Krejci, but neither of those guys played on our top PP unit during the regular season, so I think that might be a bit off.

Who's projecting this?

Really makes no sense at all.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Most projections I've read have the Bruins at 102-106 points with awful goaltending and awful special teams.

Forwards, defensemen, 5on5 offense and defense are all at or near the top of the league (top7 at least). But goaltending, power play and penalty kill are all projecting to be bottom third (24th or worse).

I'm not sure what the reason for that is... I guess losing Kuraly, Wagner and Lauzon were three really busy PK'ers for us last year, but we added guys who PK. And I think the PP projections are because they don't see McAvoy as a good PP guy, plus the loss of Krejci, but neither of those guys played on our top PP unit during the regular season, so I think that might be a bit off.

Analytics don’t like our goaltending hey?

I have to disagree.

Actually reading over this, I may actually disagree with the whole lot of it.

 

[Alicat]

Most projections I've read have the Bruins at 102-106 points with awful goaltending and awful special teams.

Forwards, defensemen, 5on5 offense and defense are all at or near the top of the league (top7 at least). But goaltending, power play and penalty kill are all projecting to be bottom third (24th or worse).

I'm not sure what the reason for that is... I guess losing Kuraly, Wagner and Lauzon were three really busy PK'ers for us last year, but we added guys who PK. And I think the PP projections are because they don't see McAvoy as a good PP guy, plus the loss of Krejci, but neither of those guys played on our top PP unit during the regular season, so I think that might be a bit off.

When did we lose Wagner?

 

[UConn126]

Most projections I've read have the Bruins at 102-106 points with awful goaltending and awful special teams.

Forwards, defensemen, 5on5 offense and defense are all at or near the top of the league (top7 at least). But goaltending, power play and penalty kill are all projecting to be bottom third (24th or worse).

I'm not sure what the reason for that is... I guess losing Kuraly, Wagner and Lauzon were three really busy PK'ers for us last year, but we added guys who PK. And I think the PP projections are because they don't see McAvoy as a good PP guy, plus the loss of Krejci, but neither of those guys played on our top PP unit during the regular season, so I think that might be a bit off.

Did I miss something, did we officially lose Wagner, or are we all just assuming he'll be waived and sent down?

 

[Blowfish]

Did I miss something, did we officially lose Wagner, or are we all just assuming he'll be waived and sent down?

Hoping traded, waived, or sent down. Simply disappear.

 

[UConn126]

Hoping traded, waived, or sent down. Simply disappear.

My guess is he comes to camp and if he's out played (which I'm expecting he will be) they waive him. If another team takes him, great, if not he's only like 250k against the cap buried in Providence, and not a terrible injury call up option.

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

This is so typical of this board. Not just you Fenian24 - but I take your post as an example. I am the optimistic type - I admit, but to think that the Bruins - as constructed right now - are a lottery team?

You have your right to say whatever but from my perspective this sounds more like you trying to get a rise out of people that an actual educated statement.

You got me to respond.

As you were.

Lotto team? no.

Guaranteed playoff spot? No.

Contender? Not in my eyes.

They've addressed some roster needs, but overall, this season still a few big roster holes. Maybe the LD by committee works, maybe it doesn't. Coyle/Studnicka/Foligno/Haula all fighting for the #2 C spot? Ullmark/Swayman tandem? Those are the 3 keys to season. And even if everything clicks, I still wouldn't put them in the contender category at this stage unless some guys take some big steps forward.

I am more pessimistic overall, but unfortunately, end of the season I've unfortunately been right more often than not. The big exception was the 2019 playoffs; most of the moves have ended up underwhelming. I'm definitely in a wait-and-see mentality with this team, hoping someone can step up and surprise, but we'll see next June where they are and if the moves were the right ones.

 

[PlayMakers]

Who's projecting this?

Really makes no sense at all.

A few analytics outfits do season projections. I like to use the one below because it allows me to toggle through options. I can swap in a different 2c or 2RW or defenseman and see how it affects our overall projection.

They base it largely on the WAR model which gives players a value rating (based off their last 3 years), but they also look at other indicators like 5on5 offense/defense, 1st assists, or for goalies they look at their save pct on the PK and other situations.

The 'standings' are based on depth charts. They took every team's depth chart, plugged it into the system and got a point prediction...

But as I said, you can take that depth chart, and mix and match lines and lineups.

A few line changes and they're up to 104 points. If you put Grzelcyk in the top pair with McAvoy, the 3rd pair suffers, but the top pair is so strong they're still "improved" overall, and pick up another projected point in the standings...

 

[PlayMakers]

Analytics don’t like our goaltending hey?

I have to disagree.

Actually reading over this, I may actually disagree with the whole lot of it.

I disagree as well. It's a stat model based on the last 3 years, so I think Ullmark doesn't rate well because he played for a horrible team for 3 years. It negatively affected how many "quality starts" he provides. It's funny though, he has a low 'quality start' ranking, but a very high "great start" ranking (games where he posts a really high individual sv pct). I think the inconsistency is a function of the poor team in front of him. For example Rask seems to post a ton of quality starts, but very few great starts and very few poor starts.

It also breaks goalies down by PK save pct, rebound control, high/medium/low danger shots, consistency... Rask rates very high in consistently, rebound control and medium danger shots, but low on high danger shots. Ullmark rates very high on all shots types (high/medium/low) and he rates well on rebound control but he is less consistent and has an abysmal rating on the PK.

So again, that overall score could be strongly affected by the team as I can't imagine Buffalo has been a very good PK team over the last 3 years. Swayman is the other part of the equation and he has such a small sample that he's essentially an unknown.

So, I think they're underrating our goalies, or at least, I think the change in teams is going to have a real positive effect on their ranking, and our team is better than they’re projecting.

I also think that Ullmark's PK sv pct probably negatively affects our PK rating, since your goalie is your best PK'er.

 

[PlayMakers]

When did we lose Wagner?

Did I miss something, did we officially lose Wagner, or are we all just assuming he'll be waived and sent down?

We didn't lose him, but in most of the depth charts I've seen, they have Nosek at 4c and Lazar at 4RW so my guess is he's not factoring into many of the analyses.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Did I miss something, did we officially lose Wagner, or are we all just assuming he'll be waived and sent down?

Id say he’s on the outside looking in for a 4th line spot, if everyone is healthy. Save some cap space and send him to Providence.

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

A few analytics outfits do season projections. I like to use the one below because it allows me to toggle through options. I can swap in a different 2c or 2RW or defenseman and see how it affects our overall projection.

They base it largely on the WAR model which gives players a value rating (based off their last 3 years), but they also look at other indicators like 5on5 offense/defense, 1st assists, or for goalies they look at their save pct on the PK and other situations.

The 'standings' are based on depth charts. They took every team's depth chart, plugged it into the system and got a point prediction...

View attachment 460654

But as I said, you can take that depth chart, and mix and match lines and lineups.

View attachment 460656

A few line changes and they're up to 104 points. If you put Grzelcyk in the top pair with McAvoy, the 3rd pair suffers, but the top pair is so strong they're still "improved" overall, and pick up another projected point in the standings...

View attachment 460657

Just curious, how accurate have these been over the years? (neither criticizing nor praising them), just genuinely curious.

 

[bruins19]

If you've seen the rest of the list, the Boss definitely doesn't belong on it.

Did not see the rest of the list. Did not realize it was adverse. Mea culpa for buffoonery. Big Springsteen fan, have seen him in concert 3 times including Germany.

 

[The don godfather]

Dvorak for debrusk zboril and a 2nd should do it. Surprised donny cant come something like this. Works for both teams. Darn I should have been a general manager I can fix this team. Book it!

 

[yazmybaby]

Most projections I've read have the Bruins at 102-106 points with awful goaltending and awful special teams.

Forwards, defensemen, 5on5 offense and defense are all at or near the top of the league (top7 at least). But goaltending, power play and penalty kill are all projecting to be bottom third (24th or worse).

I'm not sure what the reason for that is... I guess losing Kuraly, Wagner and Lauzon were three really busy PK'ers for us last year, but we added guys who PK. And I think the PP projections are because they don't see McAvoy as a good PP guy, plus the loss of Krejci, but neither of those guys played on our top PP unit during the regular season, so I think that might be a bit off.

This makes no sense to me at all.
Our first PK unit is intact.
Haula and Foligno have killed penalties in the past and are good.
Our first PP unit should be equal to last year.
I think our second PP unit will be better.

 

[PlayMakers]

Just curious, how accurate have these been over the years? (neither criticizing nor praising them), just genuinely curious.

No idea. This is my first time playing around with them… but I don’t think any model would claim to be perfect. It’s just a baseline.

I could see NHL teams building similar models to see how their team and their lines stack up on paper heading into the season. I like to see what kind of impact an addition could have, like Coyle vs Dvorak or the trickle down effect of adding a Garland to 2RW and putting Smith on line 3.

But if just looks at the last 3 years for each player, it doesn’t attempt to predict breakout seasons from young players or change I the numbers because a goalie goes from a bad team to a good one or a shooter suddenly gets paired with a playmaker. That’s the next level of speculation.