GDT: Your New Jersey Devils vs. New York Islanders, 7 PM, MSGSN/MSGSN2

[My3Sons]

You are spinning in circles. Stats showed Vitek gave up 4 on 3.2 and Akira 0 on .8 and that somehow makes Vitek look better?


Then we give you a four gm sample of Akira at .917 in this same stretch and that doesn’t matter while Vitek is like 60 pts below him in that same stretch….

I give up

Just take the L and LOL and AINEC. I’m sorry if your reading comprehension is below par like Vitek’s save percentage.

 

[devilsblood]

The 2 on 1's, the breakaway, and the unstoppable 4th goal by the Isle's get very little love in that chart.

Speaks volumes about xGF.

I think you need to watch more out of town games

Still not addressing the points I made.

But it's cool you watch out of town games.

 

[NjDevsRR]

The 2 on 1's, the breakaway, and the unstoppable 4th goal by the Isle's get very little love in that chart.

Speaks volumes about xGF.


Still not addressing the points I made.

But it's cool you watch out of town games.

Other goalies around the league face that on a nightly basis. Again, you need to watch the rest of the league if you don’t think so, if not and if you continue to ignore stats then I can’t help.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I mean the Habs get creamed every single night in terms of chances against and yet they have three goalies over .900…

Enough with the excuses for Vitek, and I love the guy but there is no more benefit of doubt left

 

[My3Sons]

The 2 on 1's, the breakaway, and the unstoppable 4th goal by the Isle's get very little love in that chart.

Speaks volumes about xGF.


Still not addressing the points I made.

But it's cool you watch out of town games.

I think you both make good points. The problem is multi-faceted so it’s not surpsing there are different ways to look at it. I’m sure you’d agree Vitek has it in him to make a few more saves. That’s all we are talking about really. One more save per game in a tough spot. That’s essentially a small sample size in some respects and difficult to determine exactly why it happens given that by definition something already went wrong defensively to allow the high danger chance. There are clearly some non-public stats they keep that would give us some additional insight. Beyond that I think coaching bias plays a role in this. A coach is usually going to default to the defense being at fault since they can’t do anything about the goalie making a save but you can in theory scheme up a defense to take away the shot before it happens. I’m open about not liking the defensive system but Vitek has looked shaky as well. Last night wasn’t egregious given the nature of the goals but he struggles to make the extra big save right now. Hopefully he can still get it together.

 

[devilsblood]

Other goalies around the league face that on a nightly basis. Again, you need to watch the rest of the league if you don’t think so, if not and if you continue to ignore stats then I can’t help.

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Again, Sal noted we allow the 4th worst uncontested slot shot rate in the league.

Also posted a well below water breakaway/odd man rush for and against rate.

But you guys keep watching games and trotting out an xGF which clearly isn't indicative of actual scoring chances.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Again, Sal noted we allow the 4th worst uncontested slot shot rate in the league.

Also posted a well below water breakaway/odd man rush for and against rate.

But you guys keep watching games and trotting out an xGF which clearly isn't indicative of actual scoring chances.

And I see some .900 goaltenders this season in those bottom three teams that are worse than us in that category….

This isn’t hard man

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

That it's not surprising to see an average/below average goalie let in a lot of goals given the THQ chances allowed.

This

 

[MasterofGrond]

But you guys keep watching games and trotting out an xGF which clearly isn't indicative of actual scoring chances.

It's not perfect, and it's not the end of the conversation.

But in the aggregate it sure does track really well with goals scored, though. And I suspect it tracks a lot better with goals than "damn look how bad we we look" does.

 

[Devils731]

I love numbers but I think we sometimes have a little too much faith that the stats are capturing things at such a good level they can’t even be discussed as possibly missing the mark.

Especially when we know they’re incomplete to start with.

Maybe xG has everything even out in a wash over an 82 game schedule but maybe there are teams that are over and under credited due to the way they uniquely approach the game.

The Devils defense is definitely a unique approach compared to the rest of the league, it would not be surprising that a metric that needs volume to become useful doesn’t measure outliers well.

———-

xG may be measuring the Devils perfectly too but we should have some objectivity that hockey chance measurement is still likely a long work in progress.

 

[devilsblood]

It's not perfect, and it's not the end of the conversation.

But in the aggregate it sure does track really well with goals scored, though. And I suspect it tracks a lot better with goals than "damn look how bad we we look" does.

Just seeing how poorly it tracked odd men, breakaways, and cross ice one timers, I'm doubting this.

It's seems to be strictly location.

 

[MasterofGrond]

And like, just generally, I'm pro tightening up the defense. But I don't think any amount of tightening is going to bail out Vitek right now, PLUS it risks taking away the thing the Devils have been the BEST IN THE LEAGUE at over the past year+, generating rush offense.

Maybe we ask too much of vitek, sure, but if he's particularly badly suited to sitting behind our playstyle, that's even more reason to bench him.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Expected goal stats are so, so iffy. Check it:

Money Puck's game report: MoneyPuck.com

All situations: Vitek's expected goals against: 2.888 (So, 3). Akira's xG: 0.937 (So, 1)

Natural Stat Trick's game report: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=20327

All situations: Vitek's expected goals against: 2.44 (So, 2 if we round correctly, 3 if we recognize that you can't score part of a goal). Akira's xG: 0.62 (So, 1)

A good stat SHOULDN'T be that different between sites.

 

[devilsblood]

And I see some .900 goaltenders this season in those bottom three teams that are worse than us in that category….

This isn’t hard man

Which were the bottom 3 teams? I don't remember Sal posting the other teams.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Other goalies around the league face that on a nightly basis.

They really don't. You're over exaggerating here. You're making it sound like every other goalie makes hd saves routinely. The ones who do, are elite for a reason. The rest are hit or miss. Vitek is below average yes, but let's not act like how the devils play is "normal".

 

[Devils731]

And like, just generally, I'm pro tightening up the defense. But I don't think any amount of tightening is going to bail out Vitek right now, PLUS it risks taking away the thing the Devils have been the BEST IN THE LEAGUE at over the past year+, generating rush offense.

Maybe we ask too much of vitek, sure, but if he's particularly badly suited to sitting behind our playstyle, that's even more reason to bench him.

I actually think a more bend don’t break defense will increase the Devils rush offense as it would likely keep the wingers higher in the defensive zone and spread the players out in breakout.

 

[devilsblood]

And like, just generally, I'm pro tightening up the defense. But I don't think any amount of tightening is going to bail out Vitek right now, PLUS it risks taking away the thing the Devils have been the BEST IN THE LEAGUE at over the past year+, generating rush offense.

Maybe we ask too much of vitek, sure, but if he's particularly badly suited to sitting behind our playstyle, that's even more reason to bench him.

I've been wondering why Schmid isn't getting more games as well. My theory is they are wary of breaking a young goalie's confidence. Or maybe they just don't want to give too many minutes to a young goalie who they expect could be the playoff goalie. And it's not like Schmid had been much better statistically until Vitek's numbers falling off in the last week or so.

But I'd be playing Schmid more.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

And like, just generally, I'm pro tightening up the defense. But I don't think any amount of tightening is going to bail out Vitek right now, PLUS it risks taking away the thing the Devils have been the BEST IN THE LEAGUE at over the past year+, generating rush offense.

Maybe we ask too much of vitek, sure, but if he's particularly badly suited to sitting behind our playstyle, that's even more reason to bench him.

No it's not, but there's so many immature people here crying about Vitek when posters like @guitarguyvic (and me to an extent) is trying to make a point about this team as a contender. This team, as is, even with a different league avg goaltender is not going anywhere and why all the bashing about the goaltending is so stupid.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I really don’t care about the xG shit with goalies. No need to hyperfixate on it. Vitek doesn’t make enough saves, I don’t need the numbers to see that. Literally if he makes a handful of saves more this year, we have a decent chunk more points in the standings.

No it's not, but there's so many immature people here crying about Vitek when posters like @guitarguyvic (and me to an extent) is trying to make a point about this team as a contender. This team, as is, even with a different league avg goaltender is not going anywhere and why all the bashing about the goaltending is so stupid.

This team with goaltending that begins with 9 instead of 8 can beat just about anyone in a series with a hot PP. Are the only “contenders” teams that are peaking in November/currently getting hot goaltending?

 

[NjDevsRR]

Which were the bottom 3 teams? I don't remember Sal posting the other teams

Judging from all the other categories that are similar it has to be San Jose and Columbus as the bottom two. I’d bet my life on it. Mac is putting up a .902 and Merzlinkins a .907 and Spencer a .903.

Then the next tier of crap is Hawks Blues Habs and Senators. All three Habs goalies are over .900, Binnington is .910, Hofer is .903, Mrazek .907, Korpisalo .902 (edit, Preimeau is now at .898 for Habs)

So again, what is Viteks excuse? There is none, he is not playing well, simple as that. .879 is not good enough in this league, especially on a team that can push play like the Devils can

 

[devilsblood]

Expected goal stats are so, so iffy. Check it:

Money Puck's game report: MoneyPuck.com

All situations: Vitek's expected goals against: 2.888 (So, 3). Akira's xG: 0.937 (So, 1)

Natural Stat Trick's game report: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=20327

All situations: Vitek's expected goals against: 2.44 (So, 2 if we round correctly, 3 if we recognize that you can't score part of a goal). Akira's xG: 0.62 (So, 1)

A good stat SHOULDN'T be that different between sites.

Ya, it's an opinion, not a stat.

Judging from all the other categories that are similar it has to be San Jose and Columbus as the bottom two. I’d bet my life on it. Mac is putting up a .902 and Merzlinkins a .907 and Spencer a .903.

Then the next tier of crap is Hawks Blues Habs and Senators. All three Habs goalies are over .900, Binnington is .910, Hofer is .903, Mrazek .907, Korpisalo .902

So again, what is Viteks excuse? There is none, he is not playing well, simple as that. .879 is not good enough in this league, especially on a team that can push play like the Devils can

So you were just making up knowing who the teams were? Oi.

Obviously we can't judge by the other categories. Otherwise NJ wouldn't be 4th worst.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Ya, it's an opinion, not a stat.


So you were just making up knowing who the teams were? Oi.

Obviously we can't judge by the other categories. Otherwise NJ wouldn't be 4th worst.

*completely ignores the ten goalies at .900 who are on bottom defensive teams*

 

[NjDevsRR]

*completely ignores the ten goalies at .900 who are on bottom defensive teams*

@devilsblood Add the Ducks in there, I missed them. Gibson with a .913

So eleven goalies at .900 in this league who are on seven bad defensive teams.

So what do you say to that in terms of Vitek being 20-35 points below them? It’s not even comparable. Vitek has been atrocious and I hate to say it because I love the guy and he had a great regular season last year. But even since the spring of last season he has been one of the worst goalies in the entire league

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Why are all the counters to this goalie discussion making it sound like we think vitek is playing well? I don't get it...

 

[Guttersniped]

Not spinning in circles. Vitek did make saves. And the chart doesn't give a great representation of the actual quality of chances. Ignore those points if you want, but it's undeniable.

What points? People admit the last goal was pretty unstoppable. Vitek has gotten saved by posts and errant shots while he’s flopping around like a suffocating fish, it goes both ways.

Are you arguing Vanecek both has played well this season and is not worse than last season? I personally believe that’s a f***ing weird thing to argue.

Listen to what Ruff says when asked about Vitek. As a coach he wants them to limit the high quality opportunities against, and he mentions the sloppy play that led to two of the goals against last night, but he also points out that we either get saves on those or you don’t. He’s not exactly defending Vanecek there because we aren’t getting the saves.

Fans have zero faith in Vanecek. The players say otherwise but I felt like they started to visibly panic after the 2nd goal because they aren’t particularly confident in him either.

If we have to have a near perfect game, like we did vs Pittsburgh or Buffalo, to get a W with Vanecek then this is going to be a long season. You need your goalie to be one of best players in some games to get a win. He did that last year.

Hopefully Vitek can play better. Having him play through this isn’t currently working, and he’s a mess in the net, so I would like him to play less. The coaches might have real reasons for not playing Schmid more so I feel like we might just be in goalie hell (again). Again, who knows. (Not me.)

But keep fist fighting the stats, and the eye test, and defend and argue whatever it is you’re defending and arguing.