It would be a good exercise to go though the history of guys picked around the 30 range.
I think it's maybe 50/50 at best (being generous) that someone makes the league, and even less chance that you will get a solid top 6 or top 4 guy. Frankly, I think late first picks are a bit overhyped around these parts.
I think with so many teams in the league now, you have to put these draft picks further into context rather than just saying "first round pick". When you say Monahan for first rounder versus Monahan for the 30ish pick, I think it sounds alot different.
The jets identified that they have caught lightning in a bottle this year, and it's totally justified to give up a seed that probably won't pan out to anything special to get more help today.
I think jets fans will be pleased as long as he stays healthy.