GDT: "With the _____ Overall in the 16 NHL Draft the Leafs are Proud to Select..." 8PM CBC

[Terrible GM]

Yes .... today is our Stanley Cup.

or President's Trophy

 

[Damisoph]

That's not how the draw occurs. It's # combination based draws where each team has a certain amount of combinations going into it that the winner combinations are constructed by 4 balls that get drawn. The winning teams combinations don't get thrown away for the 2nd or 3rd draws. Potentially a team could win the 1st draw and or the 2nd-3rd where a redraw occurs. Your odds stay they same across all 3 draws no matter the amount of times they do it.


It's a combination based lottery system that each team gets a certain amount of combinations that create the odds. Like I said to the other guy the winning combinations that a team has that won 1st overall don't go away. They're combinations are still in play for the 2nd or 3rd overall draws that if one comes up after already winning a redraw occurs. The way I understand this system the draws % doesn't change at all like this.

Right, I understand the combination thing, my example was just an attempt to make it sound more simple. I wasn't aware of the redraw thing though, thanks.

 

[rojac]

I thought the lottery is at 5 pm.. So it's at 8 now?

The pregame show on CBC begins at 7:00 ET. The lottery reveal will be just after 8:00 ET and simulcast on both CBC and NBC.

 

[Mess]

I thought the lottery is at 5 pm.. So it's at 8 now?

8pm EST = 5pm PST

I'm lucky I live in BC so for the CBC pregame show I only have to wait until 4:00 PST.. I pity the people that have to wait until 7:00 EST.

By the time 8 PM PST rolls around for me the Pens/Cap game will be almost over already.

 

[Kurisu]

For me its Montreal, Vancouver and Ottawa.

Edmonton actually landing the top pick might actually allow for them to trade the pick or trade down or even draft Laine #1 and let team #2 draft Matthews.

oilers president seems giggity over getting another #1 pick. Can't stand that attitude after all the #1 picks they've had.

 

[rojac]

8pm EST = 5pm PST

I'm lucky I live in BC so for the CBC pregame show I only have to wait until 4:00 PST.. I pity the people that have to wait until 7:00 EST.

I'll be watching the Jays game on SN (starts at 6pm ET) -- will try o remember to switch over to CBC for th draft reveal at 8pm.

 

[Mess]

oilers president seems giggity over getting another #1 pick. Can't stand that attitude after all the #1 picks they've had.

True but if they draft Matthews then they're more likely to start moving Draisaitl or RNH out as excess and Leafs might benefit from the fallout.

Also if Oilers win the lottery they may say give us Morgan Rielly and you can pick #1 overall. Most teams will deem the pick untouchable.

 

[Stand Witness]

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Still seems like that's just an average and the actual odds will change but I'll take your word for it.

All I know is if that #4 envelope is opened and we're not there I'll be as happy as a pig in ****.

Ya, at the end of the day I guess all that really matters is we're about 50-50 to move up, slightly weighted in our favour.

I'll be happy with 3rd, and very, very happy if it's better than that.

 

[TorontoTrades]

Right now the Leafs are guaranteed a top 4 pick ... have been since the regular season ended.

1st. Matthews
2nd. Laine
3rd. Puljujarvi
4th. Disappointment

the disappointment will be short lived. Sure we want a top 3 spot but if we fall to 4th we can still get someone like Dubois who can be a terrific player moving forward.


We're in a win-win as we're going to get a great player. Who it is we'll have to wait and see but it's not top 3 or bust.

 

[bionic]

I of coarse want a top 3 pick but I'm resigned to the fact that chances are we pick 4, and to tell you the truth not that angry about it. I truly believe that Hunter and this scouting staff will find some Jems in the later rounds. In fact after what they did last year I'm pretty excited to see how the later rounds go.

Because it's the later rounds that determine what kind of success you have at the draft.

 

[Mess]

the disappointment will be short lived. Sure we want a top 3 spot but if we fall to 4th we can still get someone like Dubois who can be a terrific player moving forward.


We're in a win-win as we're going to get a great player. Who it is we'll have to wait and see but it's not top 3 or bust.

The biggest disappointment will be that picks 4-10 are said to be similar and so teams that didn't finish anywhere near 30th will be rewarded with a similar level prospect if the Leafs don't win a lottery.

The only Leafs advantage is they get 1st choice of the pack, but it wouldn't really matter if things are equal because if we take Dubois then teams taking Tkachuk , Nylander etc are all getting a similar level prospect.

For me the only advantage Leafs really have it to leverage pick #4 for more assets and then trade back a few spots. Then they still get an equal level prospect but more assets picks/prospects in the process. Where Nylander + 2nd > Dubois, because Nylander and Dubois are similar.

 

[Razorwing]

lol.

 

[Budsfan]

https://amp.twimg.com/v/f2106e39-a088-40a8-b893-5abae8a5b42d

How it Works....Gaaaa

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I of coarse want a top 3 pick but I'm resigned to the fact that chances are we pick 4, and to tell you the truth not that angry about it. I truly believe that Hunter and this scouting staff will find some Jems in the later rounds. In fact after what they did last year I'm pretty excited to see how the later rounds go.

Because it's the later rounds that determine what kind of success you have at the draft.

If we know that Hunter found some gems in the later/late rounds last year, we could just keep dropping back and scoop up gems. It all sounds just so easy.

 

[Liferleafer]

Smiling will be easier for Mathews if he doesn't have to go to the frozen wastelands like McDavid did.

 

[BigBlu]

That's not how the draw occurs. It's # combination based draws where each team has a certain amount of combinations going into it that the winner combinations are constructed by 4 balls that get drawn. The winning teams combinations don't get thrown away for the 2nd or 3rd draws. Potentially a team could win the 1st draw and or the 2nd-3rd where a redraw occurs. Your odds stay they same across all 3 draws no matter the amount of times they do it.


It's a combination based lottery system that each team gets a certain amount of combinations that create the odds. Like I said to the other guy the winning combinations that a team has that won 1st overall don't go away. They're combinations are still in play for the 2nd or 3rd overall draws that if one comes up after already winning a redraw occurs. The way I understand this system the draws % doesn't change at all like this.

Ya, but the very fact that a re-draw is needed demonstrates that the odds for other teams are rising, considering that (based on 1st round %'s) a team could win the lottery 2 times in a row, but can't win 2 draft picks in a row (because that team's combinations are discounted for subsequent picks). So the odds of each team getting their numbers drawn remain essentially the same, but for any non-winner, the odds of having your numbers count for something increase.

 

[rdogg]

Lets hope the hockey gods are on the Leafs side tonight

 

[Mikistan]

Ya, but the very fact that a re-draw is needed demonstrates that the odds for other teams are rising, considering that (based on 1st round %'s) a team could win the lottery 2 times in a row, but can't win 2 draft picks in a row (because that team's combinations are discounted for subsequent picks). So the odds of each team getting their numbers drawn remain essentially the same, but for any non-winner, the odds of having your numbers count for something increase.

bingo the odds = (% of X team winning) + (% of X team winning)*(% of allready drawn team winning)^n

where n is the number of redraws

 

[Puckstuff]

Mathews or Laine. mathews or Laine!! We will get one of them. We have to believe. this is our game 7, tonight. anything top 3 i'm happy with... i can live with it... but common #2!! We have waited so long. It's our turn we've waited long enough!! The G.T.A has created thousands of NHL players... hundreds of NHL stars. Please, we're asking for 1 top 3 pick - one time.

We've produced players like tavares, mcdavid, stamkos... the list goes on. Just give us one franchise player NHL. We're ****ing due for this.

 

[I am Canadian]

I

8PM Eastern

Wait so they are doing a full hour preview? Says coverage starts at 7

 

[Zybalto]

Wait so they are doing a full hour preview? Says coverage starts at 7

Gonna hype us up with profiles of all the top players before telling us we pick 4th....

 

[Puckstuff]

Gonna hype us up with profiles of all the top players before telling us we pick 4th....

just have some faith bud. no point being negative today

 

[HEAVY DUTY]

Wait so they are doing a full hour preview? Says coverage starts at 7

it does start at 7. 8pm is inaccurate. there's a game at 8pm. wash vs. pitts. no way the nhl lets the draft overlap it.

 

[Leaf of the Mind]

The only thing that one hour preview is going to be good for is maybe getting a gauge on what happened at the draw, when they talk to the representatives for each team. It's such a drag because everybody has to basically pretend. If Dubas is reading this, give us a sign.