GDT: "With the _____ Overall in the 16 NHL Draft the Leafs are Proud to Select..." 8PM CBC

[WestCoastLeafs]

Aren't there conditional probabilities at work here? I think it's far less than 47.5% for 4th, but I'm not certain...

Those numbers are the end result after you factor in all of the conditionals.

 

[Damisoph]

Those numbers are the end result after you factor in all of the conditionals.

I think those are the mean averages. If we lose the lottery for #1, the odds for #2 would change drastically depending on who wins #1. If Boston won, our odds wouldn't change much compared to if Edmonton wins it.

 

[dimi78]

I think those are the mean averages. If we lose the lottery for #1, the odds for #2 would change drastically depending on who wins #1. If Boston won, our odds wouldn't change much compared to if Edmonton wins it.

I don't think the odds change at all. It will be 20% across all 3 draws.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Could that not just be that they moved into third? As for the pick, even if we move down to second or third it isn't awful. Landing in 4th would be a kick in the gut considering the odds and who knows what Leaf management would be thinking there.

They will begin announcing at 14th. So, for example, if Phoenix, Winnipeg and Calgary won the three lotteries, in whatever order, then they would announce

14 - Boston
13 - Carolina
12 - Ottawa
11 - New Jersey
10 - Colorado
9 - Montreal
8 - Buffalo

At this point, all seems good - all three slots are still available. Then they announce 7 - Columbus and we know all three lottery slots have been taken.

 

[MarryMarner]

Does anyone know if there be a LIVE! link for the lottery on-line..?

I believe Sportsnet is showing a live stream on their website. I'm watching from out of country so hopefully it works.

 

[X66]

I've already come to terms with the idea that we're picking fourth. Any higher is just a bonus.

This.

Leafs Luck + Coin Flip= Wrong end.

Tis the way it will always be.

 

[Damisoph]

I don't think the odds change at all. It will be 20% across all 3 draws.

They have to. Say there's 1000 balls, we have 200 of them (20%). Edmonton has 135 of them (13.5%) and Boston has 10 (1%)...if Edmonton wins the lottery that's 134 other balls taken out of the lottery for the #2 pick. Thereby greatly increasing our odds for #2 as opposed to Boston winning (9 other balls being taken out)

 

[BigBlu]

I don't think the odds change at all. It will be 20% across all 3 draws.

Nope.

Odds go up slightly for 2nd and 3rd picks, IF we lose the preceding draft slot.

IE. Ya, the odds at the BEGINNING of the draft are only ~17% we get the 2nd pick, because there's a fair chance we actually win 1st overall and won't even be in the running for pick 2, and then likewise potentially not in the draw for pick 3.

 

[canadon]

They will begin announcing at 14th. So, for example, if Phoenix, Winnipeg and Calgary won the three lotteries, in whatever order, then they would announce

14 - Boston
13 - Carolina
12 - Ottawa
11 - New Jersey
10 - Colorado
9 - Montreal
8 - Buffalo

At this point, all seems good - all three slots are still available. Then they announce 7 - Columbus and we know all three lottery slots have been taken.

It's possible they will do it in a similar format as last year. For example...

"The Boston Bruins are currently at the 14th position...". Then the 14th envelope gets opened, and then "The Boston Bruins will pick 14th in the 2016 draft". and etc going through all the teams until 3 Winners are known.

The winners would get "Golden", "Silver", or "Bronze" background signs.

We'll see.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

oh man. im so nervous. someone hold me.

Yes .... today is our Stanley Cup.

 

[Quares27]

Ya it doesn't make sense to already have the conditional probabilities because we don't know who will win. If Edmonton and Vancouver win 1-2 then that's 25% that needs to be redistributed but if Carolina and Colorado win there's only 5.5% that needs to be redistributed. So unless a miracle happens surely our odds will be even higher than they're currently stated as? at least for #2 and #3. Either way here's hoping... i'd be ecstatic with 1 or 2, 3 would be good but not amazing, 4 would be a bit of a bummer but at least we'd still get a great prospect

 

[X66]

It's a weird anxiety. Because I know the Leafs will be drafting 4th, waiting until 8 kinda feels like I'm waiting for my dad to come home and find out I broke the TV lol.

 

[Steveei]

Are they doing 3 - 2 - 1 or 1 - 2 - 3 ?

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

I think those are the mean averages. If we lose the lottery for #1, the odds for #2 would change drastically depending on who wins #1. If Boston won, our odds wouldn't change much compared to if Edmonton wins it.

Yes, that's all factored in - you add up the chances of all 13 possibilities happening.

Odds(X, Tor) = Odds(Edm,Tor) + Odds(Van, Tor) + ... + Odds(Bos,Tor)
        = 13.5% * 23.1% + 11.5% * 22.6% + ... + 1% * 20.2%
        = 0.135 * 0.231 + 0.115 * 0.226 + ... + 0.01 * 0.202
        = 0.031 + 0.026 + ... + 0.002
        = 17.5%

For drafting 3rd, you have to add up 182 individual probabilities, but it comes out to 15%.

 

[LeafsSkull]

Draft 4th would be like losing game 7 tmr

 

[DopeyFish]

Are they doing 3 - 2 - 1 or 1 - 2 - 3 ?

1-2-3 but should be announced as 3-1-2

 

[Quares27]

Are they doing 3 - 2 - 1 or 1 - 2 - 3 ?

In the past they've counted down to 1. I wouldn't mind that... at least put us out of our misery by seeing us in 4th before we get to the top 3

 

[Damisoph]

Yes, that's all factored in - you add up the chances of all 13 possibilities happening.

Odds(X, Tor) = Odds(Edm,Tor) + Odds(Van, Tor) + ... + Odds(Bos,Tor)
        = 13.5% * 23.1% + 11.5% * 22.6% + ... + 1% * 20.2%
        = 0.135 * 0.231 + 0.115 * 0.226 + ... + 0.01 * 0.202
        = 0.031 + 0.026 + ... + 0.002
        = 17.5%

For drafting 3rd, you have to add up 182 individual probabilities, but it comes out to 15%.

Still seems like that's just an average and the actual odds will change but I'll take your word for it.

All I know is if that #4 envelope is opened and we're not there I'll be as happy as a pig in ****.

 

[Mess]

I don't think the odds change at all. It will be 20% across all 3 draws.

That would not be possible as all draws need to add up to 100%.

The 1st draw has 14 teams dividing up the 100% full pie.

The 2nd draw has 13 teams dividing up the 100% with the team that won the 1st draw odds added back in to the total and divided up accordingly to the weighted average of those teams.

 

[Kurisu]

as long as montreal, vancouver and edmonton drop out of the top 3, i'll live.

 

[dimi78]

They have to. Say there's 1000 balls, we have 200 of them (20%). Edmonton has 135 of them (13.5%) and Boston has 10 (1%)...if Edmonton wins the lottery that's 134 other balls taken out of the lottery for the #2 pick. Thereby greatly increasing our odds for #2 as opposed to Boston winning (9 other balls being taken out)

That's not how the draw occurs. It's # combination based draws where each team has a certain amount of combinations going into it that the winner combinations are constructed by 4 balls that get drawn. The winning teams combinations don't get thrown away for the 2nd or 3rd draws. Potentially a team could win the 1st draw and or the 2nd-3rd where a redraw occurs. Your odds stay they same across all 3 draws no matter the amount of times they do it.

Nope.

Odds go up slightly for 2nd and 3rd picks, IF we lose the preceding draft slot.

IE. Ya, the odds at the BEGINNING of the draft are only ~17% we get the 2nd pick, because there's a fair chance we actually win 1st overall and won't even be in the running for pick 2, and then likewise potentially not in the draw for pick 3.

It's a combination based lottery system that each team gets a certain amount of combinations that create the odds. Like I said to the other guy the winning combinations that a team has that won 1st overall don't go away. They're combinations are still in play for the 2nd or 3rd overall draws that if one comes up after already winning a redraw occurs. The way I understand this system the draws % doesn't change at all like this.

 

[The Examiner]

The more I think about it, I will be slightly disappointed if we don't get a top 3 pick. Obviously it's not the end of the world but it would feel like a lost opportunity. The top 3 guys will be great players. There are some good players after that, no doubt, but the possibility is still there that one of them will not meet expectations. I don't feel that way about the top 3.

If the Leafs do end up 4th, I would want 3 of Calgary, Columbus, Colorado, Carolina, and Arizona, to draft ahead of us. I would be pretty disappointed if any of the remaining teams draft ahead of the Leafs.

I am prepared to be disappointed, in some way, but whatever happens, I still have faith in this management group to get the right guy at #4. I think I'm leaning towards Dubois at #4 but I don't know a whole lot about the guys, outside of the top 3.

Go Leafs Go!

 

[mcleex]

I thought the lottery is at 5 pm.. So it's at 8 now?

 

[Mess]

as long as montreal, vancouver and edmonton drop out of the top 3, i'll live.

For me its Montreal, Vancouver and Ottawa.

Edmonton actually landing the top pick might actually allow for them to trade the pick or trade down or even draft Laine #1 and let team #2 draft Matthews.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

It's possible they will do it in a similar format as last year. For example...

"The Boston Bruins are currently at the 14th position...". Then the 14th envelope gets opened, and then "The Boston Bruins will pick 14th in the 2016 draft". and etc going through all the teams until 3 Winners are known.

The winners would get "Golden", "Silver", or "Bronze" background signs.

We'll see.

That's for sure possible as well, but I have a feeling we won't know top 3 till the end - adds extra drama if your team gets to the "medal round", then you have the suspense of waiting thru all the other picks before finding out what exact position you get.