GDT: "With the _____ Overall in the 16 NHL Draft the Leafs are Proud to Select..." 8PM CBC

[The Legend]

I was wondering this myself. I assume they will announce starting at 14 (Boston) and go down. Hurricanes are 13th and Sens 12th. So if they announce Sens are picking 13th then we know Canes are somewhere in the top 3. If that is true we may know well before the final that we are drafting 4th. In fact if I am doing this right and although it is a complete long shot but we could know as early as the 12th pick.

You're close, but not 100% right. You'll know at that point that the Canes are in the Top 3, but we could still be first under that scenario.

Under last year's system, with only one pick being "lotteried", if the Canes hadn't appeared at 13 then you would have known they were #1.

tl;dr - you won't know where the leafs are/aren't until #4 gets revealed.

 

[TribalPhoenix]

I'm not nervous, but rather I'm hopeful.

I'm fine picking at 4... though if we do, I'd rather move down. There is such quality between 4-8/9, then I'd like to get other assets.

The only thing I don't want is Edmonton winning. That is the main fear. That will absolutely ruin things for me.

 

[Leaf Lander]

I suspect we are getting 4th overall

To me lottery reform and the leafs woes are linked. The nhl doesnt need to puta generational talent in our market. Cause we sell out every night.

So expect thzchuk chychrun nylander or dubois to be our selection

 

[BertCorbeau]

My body is ready.

Must do whatever it takes to yield good karma.

 

[UllmansTiger]

If that was the cause Edmonton would already be burning in hell lol

Right now, they kind of are.

With the 4th. overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft the Leafs are Proud to Select:

http://new.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/mikhail-sergachev-named-ohl-defenceman-of-the-year

Foundation Piece.

I don't think they'd take him there but he's the D I'd like to see them get out of the bunch, Chychrun right behind mind you, if they don't like Dubois, maybe a trade down becomes the silver lining for losing the lottery.

 

[Northern Dancer]

You're close, but not 100% right. You'll know at that point that the Canes are in the Top 3, but we could still be first under that scenario.

Under last year's system, with only one pick being "lotteried", if the Canes hadn't appeared at 13 then you would have known they were #1.

tl;dr - you won't know where the leafs are/aren't until #4 gets revealed.

I think we will know as soon as 3 teams are picked out of order, i.e. if New Jersey is announced as picking 14th that would mean Bruins, Hurricanes and Sens are in the top 3 and we are 4th.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Sorry if it's already been clarified, but could someone tell me what time the lottery takes place in Eastern time zone? Thanks in advance.

It's 7 Eastern not 8.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/2016-nhl-draft-lottery-odds-simulator-auston-matthews-maple-leafs-oilers-toronto-april-30/

 

[Smif]

What are the chances we land on each pick?

1. 20%
2.
3.
4. 45%

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Actually if NJ Devils are announced at picking 14th, we will know we are 4th, so we may know as early as the 14th pick, I think. (albeit a complete long-shot)

You bring up a good point though. If all three teams are consecutive, we could see our hopes dashed with a single turn of a card.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

what are the chances we land on each pick?

1. 20%
2.
3.
4. 45%

1. 20%
2. 17.5%
3. 15%
4. 47.5%

 

[KlaxicoBurress]

It's 7 Eastern not 8.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/2016-nhl-draft-lottery-odds-simulator-auston-matthews-maple-leafs-oilers-toronto-april-30/

sportsnet coverage begins at 7 ET. the lottery results will be revealed at 8 ET.

https://www.nhl.com/news/draft-lottery-saturday-nhl-news-and-notes/c-280521976?tid=279145558

 

[SEER]

 

[The List Of Jericho]

You bring up a good point though. If all three teams are consecutive, we could see our hopes dashed with a single turn of a card.

Could that not just be that they moved into third? As for the pick, even if we move down to second or third it isn't awful. Landing in 4th would be a kick in the gut considering the odds and who knows what Leaf management would be thinking there.

 

[Anthrax442]

WHo cares about other Canadian teams? They are all rivals. Scabs getting #1 would be an absolute disaster

 

[SEER]

Does anyone know if there be a LIVE! link for the lottery on-line..?

 

[Cor]

I thought that was at the draft?

That's the jersey's.

New logo should begin tonight

 

[The Legend]

I think we will know as soon as 3 teams are picked out of order, i.e. if New Jersey is announced as picking 14th that would mean Bruins, Hurricanes and Sens are in the top 3 and we are 4th.

Yes, fair enough. My mistake.

 

[The Legend]

1. 20%
2. 17.5%
3. 15%
4. 47.5%

Aren't there conditional probabilities at work here? I think it's far less than 47.5% for 4th, but I'm not certain...

 

[Anthrax442]

sportsnet coverage begins at 7 ET. the lottery results will be revealed at 8 ET.

https://www.nhl.com/news/draft-lottery-saturday-nhl-news-and-notes/c-280521976?tid=279145558

What is this, "The Decision"? Just post the results on twitter.

 

[Purity*]

WHo cares about other Canadian teams? They are all rivals. Scabs getting #1 would be an absolute disaster

He's gonna go to a Canadian team please go to Vancouver or even Calgary.


Screw Edmonton/Montreal/Ottawa, DO NOT want to see any of those teams with a top-3 pick.

 

[SeenSchenn2]

So the draw is not till 8? Well jeez.

 

[MJ65]

4th overall is a major disappointment, I am hoping for the best and I am positive that we are going to win either one of those top 2

 

[Leaf of the Mind]

No need for hysterics, this was never about getting tunnel vision about a particular pick or player for me. We were going to tear it down anyways, and we are still adding great talent at #4. Hunter can work his magic with the best possible picks in every other round.

I've said it all along, seeing this new system in action is going to surprise some people. But it could always help us in the future, if we improve or become a bubble team just out of the wildcard. It would be funny if top three evades us this year, only to get it next year unexpectedly.

 

[dimi78]

So it's approximately 55%:45% for Top 3 pick versus 4th overall pick. I'm looking at it this way: if they end picking 4th, they will probably be getting a player they have ranked 2nd or 3rd in their own draft rankings.

I might be wrong but I think the % to win either of the top 3 picks sticks at 20% for the Leafs and whatever % the other teams have going into the lottery. It doesn't increase for the Leafs if they miss out on the 1st and in play for the 2nd-3rd draw.

It's not just the first overall draw where the odds is just 20% it's all 3 draws. It's based on a combination of numbers . Potentially a team could win the draw for 1st and win the draw for 2nd or the 3rd where a redraw will occur.

Odds are the Leafs will be picking 4th

 

[RoadWarrior]

No need for hysterics, this was never about getting tunnel vision about a particular pick or player for me. We were going to tear it down anyways, and we are still adding great talent at #4. Hunter can work his magic with the best possible picks in every other round.

I've said it all along, seeing this new system in action is going to surprise some people. But it could always help us in the future, if we improve or become a bubble team just out of the wildcard. It would be funny if top three evades us this year, only to get it next year unexpectedly.

The worst case scenario is Tkachuk or Dubois. That's not bad.