Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[Woodman19]

I bet you out all the people complaining about waiting for moves are the same ones who complained we didn't wait for Edwin before moving on last year.

 

[Eyedea]

eh if cain and bruce are in anywhere near the same ballpark contract wise imo it's an extremely easy choice to go with cain.

I also 100% expect Cain to land a 4-5 year contract, where Bruce may settle for a 2 or 2+1 deal.

 

[zeke]

well quimby was talking about a 4yr deal for Bruce, and I'm sure he's going for it.

that being said, I don't get this urgency to stick with 1-2 yr deals. We literally have zero payroll committments beyond 2020.

 

[TF97]

I was always one of the few pro-Bruce posters around here, but that was when he looked like a cheap trade option who could be used in a platoon, not as a free agent who is going to get 3-4 years.

I would not be against Bruce as a free agent, I’m just not sure I’d give him 3 years. I’d much rather commit 4 years to Cain at around $15-18M (I think $17M is his eventual salary)

 

[Woodman19]

2 + 1 is all I would go with Bruce.

 

[Nineteen67]

If you're looking for a "top of the rotation guy", then you aren't looking for Lance Lynn.

They need somebody.

 

[Woodman19]

They need somebody.

Could it be anybody?

 

[Nineteen67]

It’s mind boggling that we are not making moves or even blowing it up. This team needs absolutely everything to go right this season to have a chance at the playoffs. I don’t see it happening. trade JDo and be done with it

Shapiro and Atkins are actually manning the phone lines trying to sell tickets. One of them may actually call you.

 

[Nineteen67]

Could it be anybody?

They have 5 anybodys they need a somebody or two.

 

[Gargyn]

Bichette, Pentecost, Pompey for Yelich. Morales and minor leaguer for Hammel. Sign Cain. Ya I hate losing Bichette, but if they really want to compete in Donaldson's final year, then compete. Fact is this team needs 2 solid outfield options and a starting pitcher. If the Marlins would take Warmth instead, great.

Cain
Travis
Donaldson
Smoak
Yelich
Pearce
Tulowitzki
Martin
Pillar

Stroman
Sanchez
Happ
Estrada
Hammel

Bench - Hernandez, Solarte, Diaz, backup catcher

 

[Gargyn]

Imagine an outfield defence with Cain, Pillar and Yelich?! Wow. Hernandez on the bench, Alford another season in the minors before replacing Pillar.

 

[Nineteen67]

Bichette, Pentecost, Pompey for Yelich. Morales and minor leaguer for Hammel. Sign Cain. Ya I hate losing Bichette, but if they really want to compete in Donaldson's final year, then compete. Fact is this team needs 2 solid outfield options and a starting pitcher. If the Marlins would take Warmth instead, great.

Cain
Travis
Donaldson
Smoak
Yelich
Pearce
Tulowitzki
Martin
Pillar

Stroman
Sanchez
Happ
Estrada
Hammel

Bench - Hernandez, Solarte, Diaz, backup catcher

Without the long ball it may take 6 hits to score a run

 

[sparxx87]

Really like the Solarte pick up. Heard/read mixed reviews of Diaz, it’ll be interesting to see if his bat can bounce back. Both are seemingly upgrades over Barney and Goins.

Better than expected so far. Now an OF, a SP, and a bullpen arm or two. Cain seems like the best fit but I worry about term with an aging athlete on the turf.

 

[Discoverer]

They have 5 anybodys they need a somebody or two.

Wait... Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, and Estrada aren't "somebodies"?

 

[TNCHL]

i dont think were gettin yelich

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Bruce at 4 x $15 million? That's really ugly.

I don't think I would be willing to go to 3 x $15 million. Two years at $15 million? Sure! Three years at, say, $12 million? Sure!

But... ugh. $60 million for Jay Bruce is just bad.

Its really not though. Considering its his age 31, 32, 33, 34 seasons at a ticket under the QO. ISO steady at .250 over the last 1200 PA's, and a nice upward trend in several peripherals since he cratered in 2015. Plus I like players who hit flyballs (or at the very least, players who do not hit groundballs), and he does that rather well.

I like the risk, the ticket, the fit, and the player. But to each their own.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Bruce was a replacement player for 3 years before a sudden spike in defensive stats last year at age 30.

Projecting him as a 1war player next year at age 31 seems about right.

Not buying for the glove.

Actually, anyone buying free agents for their glove is likely to be in for a rude awakening. Speed deteriorates first, then defensive prowess, then the bat speed and power. I'm more comfortable buying the latter two and developing the former two.

 

[sparxx87]

Wait... Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, and Estrada aren't "somebodies"?

Yeah, I like the rotation. Sanchez is a wild card but I’m still cautiously optimistic he and Stroman can be that strong 1-2. Happ and Estrada should be solid, they’re only missing one piece.

Unlike some other positions, the pitching is in really good shape.

 

[phillipmike]

Always been in the camp of Pillar (4M) for Puig( (7.5M) (Dodgers were interested in JBJ for Puig). Defense should be improved and with Pillar approaching 30 he could be declining. Our problem will always be hitting and selling 3 years of a 29 year old defense first CF for 2 years of a better hitting 27 year old RF would be a fair deal.

Puig brings more power, on base and offensive value;

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Then i would be interested in Dyson on a 1 or 2 year deal. He brings similar defensive value to Pillar but is left handed, and brings a better on base, more steals and better base running.

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Keep in mind Dyson has similar value to Pillar in 500 less PAs.

Hernandez-Dyson-Puig

Strong defensively, better on base, younger, more power than last season and good base running. MLBTR predicts a 12M/2 year for Dyson which is a very manageable deal. Hernandez, Dyson and Puig cost you roughly 14.5M which provides saving and value considering Bautista cost you around 18M alone last season.

Having both Puig and Dyson on 2 year deals leaves a door wide open for Alford to win and keep a spot later in the season or next. Dyson can slide easily into a 4th OF spot if Alford pushes his way onto the team.

You could potentially shop Pearce and Carrera to clear 8M off the books leaving you with 18M to get a starter and a pen arm. Depending how you spend that 18M you might even have money left over after getting a start and pen piece to roll the dice on a Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Cameron Maybin or a Jon Jay if their markets tank and if you want more insurances re: Hernandez.

 

[Nineteen67]

Wait... Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, and Estrada aren't "somebodies"?

I like Sanchez’s potential, but he hasn’t pitched 200 in his life. Can he this year?
Happy he’d be a great #2
Stroman. If he’s slotted #3 and faces othe teams 3-5. 13-9 last year can he get better.?

If they are going for it they’ll need a another top end guy. The problem is, they are not going for it.

 

[Nineteen67]

Yeah, I like the rotation. Sanchez is a wild card but I’m still cautiously optimistic he and Stroman can be that strong 1-2. Happ and Estrada should be solid, they’re only missing one piece.

Unlike some other positions, the pitching is in really good shape.

That’s a big wild card.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I like Sanchez’s potential, but he hasn’t pitched 200 in his life. Can he this year?
Happy he’d be a great #2
Stroman. If he’s slotted #3 and faces othe teams 3-5. 13-9 last year can he get better.?

If they are going for it they’ll need a another top end guy. The problem is, they are not going for it.

I recommend examining the 2017 Houston Astros rotation, month by month in terms of personnel. It may help to paint a more realistic picture of what a good rotation looks like.

 

[Discoverer]

Its really not though. Considering its his age 31, 32, 33, 34 seasons at a ticket under the QO. ISO steady at .250 over the last 1200 PA's, and a nice upward trend in several peripherals since he cratered in 2015. Plus I like players who hit flyballs (or at the very least, players who do not hit groundballs), and he does that rather well.

I like the risk, the ticket, the fit, and the player. But to each their own.

I mean... $60 million only works out to a little over 6 fWAR over the next four years. That's a pretty low target.

But, while his 2017 was a really nice season, it was also coming off three straight years where he failed to even manage a single win. Steamer has him at 1.0 fWAR. I like him a little more than where they have him on the offensive side (especially if he's in a strict platoon with Pearce instead of getting almost 200 plate appearances against lefties again), but I still don't see it.

Regardless, I don't think he'll get four years from anyone because of his spotty history. But if Bruce is going to cost $60 million, I'll happily move on to someone like Dyson for couple years instead.

 

[Discoverer]

I like Sanchez’s potential, but he hasn’t pitched 200 in his life. Can he this year?
Happy he’d be a great #2
Stroman. If he’s slotted #3 and faces othe teams 3-5. 13-9 last year can he get better.?

If they are going for it they’ll need a another top end guy. The problem is, they are not going for it.

Fun fact: there are 16 pitchers in baseball who have been worth more fWAR (7.0) than Stroman in the last two years. It's no win-loss record, but it's a pretty good metric for evaluating the quality of a pitcher.

Also, Sanchez threw over 200 innings in 2016.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I mean... $60 million only works out to a little over 6 fWAR over the next four years. That's a pretty low target.

But, while his 2017 was a really nice season, it was also coming off three straight years where he failed to even manage a single win. Steamer has him at 1.0 fWAR. I like him a little more than where they have him on the offensive side (especially if he's in a strict platoon with Pearce instead of getting almost 200 plate appearances against lefties again), but I still don't see it.

Regardless, I don't think he'll get four years from anyone because of his spotty history. But if Bruce is going to cost $60 million, I'll happily move on to someone like Dyson for couple years instead.

I don't disagree. Its really a preference thing. And I understand the trepidation from the two terrible years. That said, I wouldn't utilize him defensively the way the Reds did, and I wouldn't strictly platoon him (instead playing him against lefties who are FB\Snk reliant, i.e. Dallas Keuchel, and sitting him against plus breaking ball lefties, i.e. Chris Sale). I'm a believer in the swing change.

Of course, a two year deal is far more ideal. Heck, if the market completely breaks, I'd be ecstatic at one. However, Reddick getting four just a year ago establishes a bit of a floor for Bruce, IMO.