Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[Discoverer]

Projections don't mean a whole heck of a lot to me. I still remember 2013. I just wish we could have a magical Red Sox 2013 type of run. But good things rarely happen to us, so...

Projections will always be off, but they're still a really good approximation of what you should expect a player/team to do. At the very least they're a hell of a lot better than basing an opinion on what a team "feels like" or something like that.

 

[trellaine201]

I agree, all these numbers number numbers. Most players are not elite and their stats can fluctuate quite a bit during their contracts.

Lots of crap player performance from player who had a great previous year.

It’s all a crapshoot for the most part.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I would assume Alford, Warmoth and Greene is not enough to get Yelich as they posted on MLB.com.

I do not see why Pillar and Travis could not be used as chips. Yelich replaces Pillar, and the Jays then are not forced to go after some huge name in FA to help out the OF. They could be good with a cost-effective guy like Dyson, rather than splurging on a Cain. I think the Jays would be willing to give up Travis given he would help get a big piece in return, they do have immediate replacements in Diaz and Solarte, both with some good amount of control left, and they still have ample depth now and in the future at those positions. I am sure they would love to keep Travis and see him become a productive 2B who stays healthy, but that is unlikely to happen and even if it did, I doubt they would think super long about using him to get someone of Yelich's quality. Throw in some good prospects, and I think you could have a deal that works.

Yelich clearly has a ton of value, but all of the deals proposed typically involved pure prospects. What is wrong with trying to instead give up some MLBers with 3 years of control left each, do not make them take on more salary (I believe they'll actually cut salary, not that it would be the motivation of a Yelich deal) and can help Miami put a decent team together now and in the future, which regardless of how much money they need to shed, they still need to do. Fans are pissed they are selling off guys all over the place and what has Miami even done to replace any of that quality yet? Getting controlled pieces that can help now should be something they look for, and Pillar and Travis do that. Pillar takes the CF spot, Travis takes the 2B spot where Gordon was, and at least you get something started for less than what Yelich cost.

Castro (if they keep him) and Travis gives a decent SS/2B duo, as long as they have some insurance for Travis.

EDIT: Turns out, even if they traded Castro, they'd still have a decent infield and some depth as well.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Atkins said the Solarte deal gained momentum just before Christmas and really started coming together when the Toronto GM and his family were travelling back from Vancouver this past Friday night after visiting his wife’s family in Washington state. They landed at Pearson airport shortly after a Sunwing aircraft collided on the ground with a WestJet plane, causing chaos and panic and sending a firefighter to hospital.

“We sat on the tarmac for three hours and that’s where I did the deal,” Atkins said.

“And we were not in first class,” he added.

The Solarte swap was finished via text and old-fashioned phone conversation. Anybody sitting near Atkins would have gotten the scoop.

“And then my phone died,” Atkins said with a laugh. “The plane didn’t have internet, so I switched over to my wife’s phone and that was a bit confusing, and I’m also communicating with guys in my office at the time.”

Atkins reiterated that the Jays are looking to add more this off-season and it seems likely the club will acquire a major league outfielder before the start of the 2018 campaign.

“I’m confident that we will add significant pieces,” he said. “There’s a lot of different ways to make our team better.”

 

[phillipmike]

Pretend you are the Marlins GM/owner. After the offseason so far do you think you care about the fans?

Why would they take a defense first CF approaching 30 or a 2B who has missed more games than he played and 2nd tier prospects for one of the best values in terms of play and contracts in the game.

Ask yourself if you are the Marlins would you want Pillar and Travis plus or more or Vladdy/Bichette plus more?

There is likely a good reason as to why that type of deal isn't being discussed because it would be stupid for the Marlins to consider it.

Jays can offer Pillar and Travis all they want but it doesn't makes sense for the Marlins to consider it.

 

[TF97]

I would assume Alford, Warmoth and Greene is not enough to get Yelich as they posted on MLB.com.

I do not see why Pillar and Travis could not be used as chips. Yelich replaces Pillar, and the Jays then are not forced to go after some huge name in FA to help out the OF. They could be good with a cost-effective guy like Dyson, rather than splurging on a Cain. I think the Jays would be willing to give up Travis given he would help get a big piece in return, they do have immediate replacements in Diaz and Solarte, both with some good amount of control left, and they still have ample depth now and in the future at those positions. I am sure they would love to keep Travis and see him become a productive 2B who stays healthy, but that is unlikely to happen and even if it did, I doubt they would think super long about using him to get someone of Yelich's quality. Throw in some good prospects, and I think you could have a deal that works.

Yelich clearly has a ton of value, but all of the deals proposed typically involved pure prospects. What is wrong with trying to instead give up some MLBers with 3 years of control left each, do not make them take on more salary (I believe they'll actually cut salary, not that it would be the motivation of a Yelich deal) and can help Miami put a decent team together now and in the future, which regardless of how much money they need to shed, they still need to do. Fans are pissed they are selling off guys all over the place and what has Miami even done to replace any of that quality yet? Getting controlled pieces that can help now should be something they look for, and Pillar and Travis do that. Pillar takes the CF spot, Travis takes the 2B spot where Gordon was, and at least you get something started for less than what Yelich cost.

Castro (if they keep him) and Travis gives a decent SS/2B duo, as long as they have some insurance for Travis.

EDIT: Turns out, even if they traded Castro, they'd still have a decent infield and some depth as well.

Although I do think Miami would have some interest in both Pillar and Travis in a potential trade for Yelich. I don’t see any scenario where they headline a deal, I think they’d be best used as trade chips for Miami. The Marlins have been royally blasted by essentially everyone in the universe for the moves they have made this offseason, I don’t see can’t see why would trade their most valuable asset for anything less than an elite prospect (Vlad or Bo) and then some.

As Nem said, I expect any Yelich deal to be Jeters attempt at a “rebound”. In Travis, they would be acquiring a quality player when healthy, but unfortunately he has not yet shown any indications that he can be healthy for a full season. With Pillar, they would be acquiring an elite defensive center fielder with a mediocre bat. But, he is approaching 30 and I can’t see his style of play lasting much longer. His bat wouldn’t play in a corner spot, so once his defense slips, you have an expensive fourth outfielder.

As I said above, both Travis and Pillar have value. But that value is not something that will help Miami now or in the future. Their best bet would be to tear everything down and completely restart - move Yelich, Straily, Realmuto, and Bour (depending on his market) for the best long-term assets you can get.

I like the thinking, and if Toronto can get someone such as Yelich or Cain, I would look at trading Pillar. But I don’t think you are getting Yelich without moving one of Vlad or Bo.

I recall a scenario posted on here not too long ago where someone suggested signing Cain and moving Pillar to a team like Los Angeles for Pederson or Puig. That is something along the lines of what kind of deal I’d move Pillar in. You’d be able to play Cain in CF for 2018 and then shift him to RF when Alford is ready, while allowing Pederson or Puig to play LF/RF in the meantime.

 

[zeke]

Alford, Warmoth, Greene for yelich I do.

 

[zeke]

doesn't make sense to trade pillar. he's worth more to us as a player than as trade bait.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Alford, Warmoth, Greene for yelich I do.

I'd probably even be willing to throw in Urena and another low level pitching prospect. Guys like Urena and Greene likely have more hype than substance at this point so I don't mind floating them out there for a long term piece.

Key is to not touch Bichette, Vlad, or Pearson. Also prefer to keep guys who aren't necessarily sexy prospects to other organizations but have a lot of internal value (Jansen as Martin replacement in 2019 , Borucki as Happ replacement in 2019, etc)

 

[Anthrax442]

We are just starting to have depth in the farm system again, trading away 5 prospects shouldn't be something we look forward to.

 

[Discoverer]

We are just starting to have depth in the farm system again, trading away 5 prospects shouldn't be something we look forward to.

That would make sense if the discussion was about acquiring a short-term or overpaid asset. But we're talking about a star-calibre player with five years of cheap control.

I love Alford and I think he's going to be a star, but if Alford+Warmoth+Greene gets it done, I would do it because Yelich is basically what you hope Alford turns into. He helps the team now he's still an impact player and part of the core when the Vlad 'n Bo Show takes over.

 

[Discoverer]

doesn't make sense to trade pillar. he's worth more to us as a player than as trade bait.

I tend to agree. As usual, it depends how other teams value him, but I doubt anyone values him to a level that makes trading him worthwhile.

If the Jays were to sign Cain, I would just want to put him in LF and go with an elite OF defense.

 

[GoonieFace]

The longer guys like Cain/Bruce etc are available, the better the chances for the Jays signing them. If they can add just 1 OF, they are looking strong.

Starting pitching is there
Bullpen is there (although that could change, as bullpens always do)
Depth is there on the infield when Tulo and Travis get hurt.

They should be able to compete for the division if they add 1 good OF bat.

 

[Nineteen67]

The longer guys like Cain/Bruce etc are available, the better the chances for the Jays signing them. If they can add just 1 OF, they are looking strong.

Starting pitching is there
Bullpen is there (although that could change, as bullpens always do)
Depth is there on the infield when Tulo and Travis get hurt.

They should be able to compete for the division if they add 1 good OF bat.

I still think they need to add another top of the rotation guy or two. Someone like Lance Lynn, although I doubt he’d sign with TO or someone similar.

 

[zeke]

Cain/Bruce is not an appropriate use of a slash.

 

[Discoverer]

I still think they need to add another top of the rotation guy or two. Someone like Lance Lynn, although I doubt he’d sign with TO or someone similar.

If you're looking for a "top of the rotation guy", then you aren't looking for Lance Lynn.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The longer guys like Cain/Bruce etc are available, the better the chances for the Jays signing them. If they can add just 1 OF, they are looking strong.

Starting pitching is there
Bullpen is there (although that could change, as bullpens always do)
Depth is there on the infield when Tulo and Travis get hurt.

They should be able to compete for the division if they add 1 good OF bat.

Weirdly enough, the projection systems are actually more bearish on the pitching. I'd like to see another starter, and have mentioned discount-Quintana (Garcia) as my preferred guy. I'd be fine with Bruce\Cain + Garcia to wrap up the offseason, and see the likelihood of it happening as high.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Cain/Bruce is not an appropriate use of a slash.

Lol true, in regards to certain things.

I don't know why people tend to be down on Bruce in this thread. If you can get him for 4 years @ $15MM aav, that's a good deal. Fits quite well.

 

[Discoverer]

Lol true, in regards to certain things.

I don't know why people tend to be down on Bruce in this thread. If you can get him for 4 years @ $15MM aav, that's a good deal. Fits quite well.

Bruce at 4 x $15 million? That's really ugly.

I don't think I would be willing to go to 3 x $15 million. Two years at $15 million? Sure! Three years at, say, $12 million? Sure!

But... ugh. $60 million for Jay Bruce is just bad.

 

[zeke]

Bruce was a replacement player for 3 years before a sudden spike in defensive stats last year at age 30.

Projecting him as a 1war player next year at age 31 seems about right.

 

[Cor]

Bruce isn’t my first choice, but I wouldn’t be upset if we signed him.

Cain seems perfect though

 

[Garlando]

Bruce was a replacement player for 3 years before a sudden spike in defensive stats last year at age 30.

Projecting him as a 1war player next year at age 31 seems about right.

I agree with this for the most part as I don't trust a sudden uptick in defensive metrics at 30 and his BAPIP was the highest he's posted since 2013 which helped drive his .254 average. There is some legit downside to Bruce and typing yourself to him for 3+ years could look like Morales from this past season. Notably though, Bruce did poste his highest Hard hit% (very healthy 40.3%) in 2016 of his career and also posted his lowest ground-ball rate (32.5%) of his career. The hard hit% likely helped Bruce avoid any BAPIP drop as flyballs (his drop in GB% led to more flyballs) are generally turned into outs easier than other batted ball outcomes. If/when Bruce suddenly stops stinging the ball so hard consistently, his BAPIP will likely fall and make him a big batting average liability. He also may need to be platooned as he posted just a .222/.285/.433 line against lefties, good for an 88 wRC+.

 

[Eyedea]

Bruce was a replacement player for 3 years before a sudden spike in defensive stats last year at age 30.

Projecting him as a 1war player next year at age 31 seems about right.

Bruce was being utilized wrong on defence. Reds had him playing shallow a lot of the time when he's significantly better running towards the diamond rather than away. He isn't the worst defender in the world as his 2016 numbers with Cinci showed, and it's more than obvious that he's probably around +5/-5 for at least the next couple of years. Not to mention the fact that he's actually legitimately good against righties and his xStats suggesting he was slightly unlucky in the avg/obp department.

I agree with this for the most part as I don't trust a sudden uptick in defensive metrics at 30 and his BAPIP was the highest he's posted since 2013 which helped drive his .254 average. There is some legit downside to Bruce and typing yourself to him for 3+ years could look like Morales from this past season. Notably though, Bruce did poste his highest Hard hit% (very healthy 40.3%) in 2016 of his career and also posted his lowest ground-ball rate (32.5%) of his career. The hard hit% likely helped Bruce avoid any BAPIP drop as flyballs (his drop in GB% led to more flyballs) are generally turned into outs easier than other batted ball outcomes. If/when Bruce suddenly stops stinging the ball so hard consistently, his BAPIP will likely fall and make him a big batting average liability. He also may need to be platooned as he posted just a .222/.285/.433 line against lefties, good for an 88 wRC+.

The expectation shouldn't be for him to stop stinging the ball consistently though considering he's been doing it his entire career. Since 2010 his hard% is equivalent to the likes of Bautista, Cruz, Carpenter, Morales, Encarnacion, and Rasmus (to mention a few).

 

[zeke]

eh if cain and bruce are in anywhere near the same ballpark contract wise imo it's an extremely easy choice to go with cain.

 

[Lahey]

It’s mind boggling that we are not making moves or even blowing it up. This team needs absolutely everything to go right this season to have a chance at the playoffs. I don’t see it happening. trade JDo and be done with it