Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[The Nic]

Jays 2018 early Steamer + Zips projections

Asterisk = steamer-only projection

2B Travis 102wrc+, 2.8war/650
3B Donaldson 140wrc+, 6.3war/650
1B Smoak 116wrc+, 2.3war/650
LF Pearce 109wrc+, 1.5war/650
DH Morales 106wrc+, 1.0war/650
C Martin 101wrc+, 3.8war/650
SS Tulowitzki 98wrc+, 2.8war/650
CF Pillar 90wrc+, 2.9war/650
RF Hernandez 89wrc+, 0.9war/650

UT Solarte* 101wrc+, 1.8war/650
OF Carrera 85wrc+, 0.0war/650 / Pompey 81wrc+, 0.8war/650
IF Diaz* 96wrc+, 1.9war/650
C Maile 52wrc+, -0.1war/650

This is the roster that will "complete" with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2018? It's actually laughable.

 

[Woodman19]

eh you guys don't mind trying to make me look like a hypocrite. i'm just a little surprised (or maybe i'm not) that all the prospect hoarders here are suddenly fine with management giving up a decent prospect for a 30yr old bench guy in what he has admitted already is a move just to appease us dumb fans.



eh if you have a 2war starting player then you are looking for an upgrade. and of course his war rate is inflated by his platoon usage.

I dont think its about "prospect hoarding" as much as its acceptance that we just got a pretty safe 1.5-2.0 WAR player with control for a prospect that has quite a ways to go to reach anything. A good deal is a good deal and its hard to argue with this kind of value. If we could go get a pitching equivalent of Solarte for the same value it would also be a great deal.

 

[zeke]

This is the roster that will "complete" with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2018? It's actually laughable.

eh, red sox ain't much better.

no zips yet so steamer-only:

Bogaerts 109wrc+, 3.8war/650
Betts 132wrc+, 5.6war/650
Benintendi 117wrc+, 2.9war/650
Ramirez 112wrc+, 1.2war/650
Devers 111wrc+, 3.0war/650
Pedroia 105wrc+, 3.3war/650
Bradley 105wrc+, 3.5war/650
Moreland 102wrc+, 1.4war/650
Vazquez 83wrc+, 2.3war/650

Hernandez 82wrc+, 0.9war/650
Brentz 87wrc+, 0.0war/650
Holt 82wrc+, 0.9war/650
Leon 72wrc+, 1.7war/650

but yeah, a guy like Cain would really help.

 

[Eyedea]

eh you guys don't mind trying to make me look like a hypocrite. i'm just a little surprised (or maybe i'm not) that all the prospect hoarders here are suddenly fine with management giving up a decent prospect for a 30yr old bench guy in what he has admitted already is a move just to appease us dumb fans.



eh if you have a 2war starting player then you are looking for an upgrade. and of course his war rate is inflated by his platoon usage.

I'm in the market for surplus value deals, not hoarding prospects. Olivares is a lotto ticket who is going to be 22 in Hi-A next season. Not to say that I wasn't a fan of his and don't wish him success, but a projected 0.7 fWAR in 200 PAs for Solarte? Yeah I'm doing that deal every time.

I don't even understand how I'd get lumped into that category when I was the one that actually brought up the Travis++ offer for McCutchen + Harrison last offseason.

Trading for actually decent controllable players at a low acquisition cost > spending money in free agency. For comparison sake, Nunez (who we have been extensively linked to) had a contract prediction of 2/14.

 

[ShaneFalco]

This is the roster that will "complete" with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2018? It's actually laughable.

I get what you're saying, but all they need is the wildcard

 

[Discoverer]

I know everyone wants to aim higher, but man... even Jarrod Dyson would make a huge difference for this team right now.

 

[Leafin]

Cain would be a difference maker for us.

On Dyson, what is he likely to command? He'd be an improvement over Zeke.

 

[oilers89]

Trade morales. And possibly Pearce. But you probably can't. Then sign Cain and Carlos Gonzalez. Rotate DH then

Travis
Cain
Josh
Smoak
Cargo
Tulo
Martin
Hernandez
Pillar

 

[Discoverer]

Trade morales. And possibly Pearce. But you probably can't. Then sign Cain and Carlos Gonzalez. Rotate DH then

Travis
Cain
Josh
Smoak
Cargo
Tulo
Martin
Hernandez
Pillar

Carlos Gonzalez isn't an improvement over Pearce.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't mind the Solarte deal, in fact, I like it for the price. One thing it made me think about though is that every team has a Yangervis Solarte type prospect in the minors.

They're B/C type prospects who weren't ranked high, if at all, on prospects list, who simply need enough major league exposure to get comfortable. We have a guy like this in our own system in Christian Lopes. An infielder who can play 3B/2B, hit a bit, has some patience and pop, and can run.

Their numbers at the same age are pretty comparable.

Solarte (24) AAA: 568pa .288/.340/.405 11hr 54rbi 3sb 1cs 41bb 44 so

Lopes (24) AAA: 384pa .261/.349/.402 6hr 40rbi 18sb 4cs 43bb 52so

 

[Suntouchable13]

I get what you're saying, but all they need is the wildcard

Can we compete for the 2nd wild card spot and at the same time build a great future where we can be better than the Yankees and Red Sox in 2020 (let's say)?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't mind the Solarte deal, in fact, I like it for the price. One thing it made me think about though is that every team has a Yangervis Solarte type prospect in the minors.

They're B/C type prospects who weren't ranked high, if at all, on prospects list, who simply need enough major league exposure to get comfortable. We have a guy like this in our own system in Christian Lopes. An infielder who can play 3B/2B, hit a bit, has some patience and pop, and can run.

Their numbers at the same age are pretty comparable.

Solarte (24) AAA: 568pa .288/.340/.405 11hr 54rbi 3sb 1cs 41bb 44 so

Lopes (24) AAA: 384pa .261/.349/.402 6hr 40rbi 18sb 4cs 43bb 52so

Lopes signed a MLC with Texas this offseason. He is no longer in the Jays' system.

His brother Tim is though.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Brian Cashman’s mantra — on the record and over and over again — has been “we are getting under” the $197 million luxury-tax threshold.

The Yanks currently have $172 million-ish tied up in seven signed players, an estimate of what eight arbitration players will cost via MLB Trade Rumors, obligations from trades for Brian McCann and Chase Headley and the $14 million-ish each club will be charged for benefits such as pensions and insurance.

The rest of the 25-man roster would cost about $7 million, potentially more if a non-roster player with a seven-figure major league deal makes the squad.

They would love to move as much of the three years at $68.5 million owed Jacoby Ellsbury (who counts $21.9 million annually toward the luxury-tax payroll). But there are plenty of outfielders better than Ellsbury still on the market, plus Ellsbury has a no-trade clause. The Orioles actually like Ellsbury a little, but indications are he might consider waiving his no-trade to be closer to his Scottsdale, Ariz., home with maybe the Diamondbacks or Giants making some sense.

The Yanks could try to pressure Ellsbury by pointing out he is currently the fifth outfielder, but even if he agreed to a move and a team were interested, I can’t imagine any club taking on more than $5 million per year (if that), and would Hal Steinbrenner agree to eat more than $50 million?

 

[oilers89]

Carlos Gonzalez isn't an improvement over Pearce.

Defensively 100% is.

 

[BlueForever75]

I think if there is anyway to deal Morales now is the time. The acquisition of Solarte is a fantastic move and one that Shatkins should be applauded for. I do not understand where all the dismay is coming from for this deal. If we can somehow deal Morales contract I would do it prior to diving into the FA market once again.

Shedding his salary, or even 3/4 of it and paying a 1/4 in any deal would be ideal and we can then aim higher on a FA or 2 that will make a difference in the OF and SP. Trade Morales and sign Cain and Lynn.

 

[Discoverer]

Defensively 100% is.

Of course. But overall, he's not.

Plus, if you want to sign Carlos Gonzalez for some reason, the best thing to do is keep Pearce around so you can platoon them and make sure Gonzalez never has to face a lefty.

 

[BlueForever75]

Of course. But overall, he's not.

Plus, if you want to sign Carlos Gonzalez for some reason, the best thing to do is keep Pearce around so you can platoon them and make sure Gonzalez never has to face a lefty.

I would have to agree that the signing of CarGO doesn't mean we deal Pearce. He is still needed. But I would love for the Jays to somehow trade Morales if at all possible!!! The acquisition of Solarte is holding true to what we need to do, more position versatility. But for this to work we would need to rid ourselves of Morales. If we somehow could, I would use those $$$ along with the 20+ million in budget space to sign Cain and Lynn.

 

[Woodman19]

Once Hosmer signs in San Diego I suspect we send Morales to KC with $8 million attached making him a $15 million commitment over 2 years for KC.

 

[Discoverer]

Once Hosmer signs in San Diego I suspect we send Morales to KC with $8 million attached making him a $15 million commitment over 2 years for KC.

Morales to KC continues to make way too much sense. They need to spent money on SOMEONE, and they need someone who can at least sort of hit.

 

[BlueForever75]

Morales to KC continues to make way too much sense. They need to spent money on SOMEONE, and they need someone who can at least sort of hit.

A deal as such would add much needed versatility to our lineup not to mention another 7 million to spend towards trades or FA's to continue to add to team.

27+ million should allow you to sign a couple of more useful players that will make us a contender as long as health holds up.

 

[Discoverer]

Speaking of KC... their ZiPS projections are out, and they're awesome.

2018 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals | FanGraphs Baseball

They project to have a 2.5 WAR each at 2B and C... and all other projected starting position players combine for 3.0 WAR. More than half of their starting lineup projects to have less than 0.5 WAR next year. Combine that with just one above average starting pitcher and a complete disaster of a farm system... it could be a couple ugly seasons in KC.

 

[TF97]

I’ve long liked the idea of a Morales to KC deal focused on taking back Soria, but he has since been moved. I believe DJQ in the past has mentioned a deal centered around Hammel and Morales, I have previously posted about my interest in Hammel in a Liriano-type deal, but getting rid of Morales would be even better.

As always, vote Quimby.

 

[Discoverer]

I’ve long liked the idea of a Morales to KC deal focused on taking back Soria, but he has since been moved. I believe DJQ in the past has mentioned a deal centered around Hammel and Morales, I have previously posted about my interest in Hammel in a Liriano-type deal, but getting rid of Morales would be even better.

As always, vote Quimby.

Yeah, those options make plenty of sense. I never really looked at what a deal would actually entail, I've just thought for a while that KC seems like by far the best fit for a Morales deal, just based on the assumption that they can afford to add a little salary without a long-term commitment and they're probably desperate to add a familiar face to the lineup with all the good players on the way out.

 

[BlueForever75]

A Jason Hammel for Morales deal is a good deal, obviously with other pieces involved.

Hammel would provide innings out of the 5th spot in the rotation, averaging over 160 innings the past 5 seasons.

 

[Eyedea]

Hammel is trending in a particularly bad direction. Wouldn't surprise me if his HR/9 would be higher than Estrada's on this team.

I understand the optics of the deal but there isn't really anything redeemable when looking at his stat line.