Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[phillipmike]

Damn Oliveras is a good one but still has question marks. Unlike the Diaz trade it looks fair if that second piece isnt overkill.

 

[zeke]

If it's olivares that's a good price. Everyone seems to think he's a real prospect and I just don't see it.

Still don't like the target, but the price would be right, much like in the liriano trade

 

[Garlando]

3:28pm: San Diego will get outfield prospect Edward Olivares and a “small second piece,” Robert Murray of FanRag tweets.

 

[hoc123]

3:28pm: San Diego will get outfield prospect Edward Olivares and a “small second piece,” Robert Murray of FanRag tweets.

 

[hoc123]

If it's olivares that's a good price. Everyone seems to think he's a real prospect and I just don't see it.

Still don't like the target, but the price would be right, much like in the liriano trade

I feel the same, except I'm higher on both Solarte and Olivares.

 

[zeke]

Jays 2018 early Steamer + Zips projections

Asterisk = steamer-only projection

2B Travis 102wrc+, 2.8war/650
3B Donaldson 140wrc+, 6.3war/650
1B Smoak 116wrc+, 2.3war/650
LF Pearce 109wrc+, 1.5war/650
DH Morales 106wrc+, 1.0war/650
C Martin 101wrc+, 3.8war/650
SS Tulowitzki 98wrc+, 2.8war/650
CF Pillar 90wrc+, 2.9war/650
RF Hernandez 89wrc+, 0.9war/650

UT Solarte* 101wrc+, 1.8war/650
OF Carrera 85wrc+, 0.0war/650 / Pompey 81wrc+, 0.8war/650
IF Diaz* 96wrc+, 1.9war/650
C Maile 52wrc+, -0.1war/650

 

[phillipmike]

These prices seem very reasonable (Diaz and Solarte). Of course they may not have been available in season but makes you wonder. Diaz and Solarte could have been huge upgrades in season and bonus as they had control.

Diaz and Solarate combined for 1.3 WAR in 811 PAs.

Barney and Goins combined for -0.9 WAR in 821 PAs.

 

[hoc123]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[zeke]

Jared Carkuff (who?) is the 2nd piece.

 

[Swervin81]

Well, Diaz and Solarte are at least better than Goins and Barney.

That said, this team gives me too much of a 2008 Jays vibe. Great pitching staff, can't hit, terrible outfield... not good enough in a top heavy division and even at best, I feel like the M's and Angels are both clearly better.

 

[Eyedea]

Solarte is technically a switch hitter, but he hits significantly better as a lefty (against right handed pitching). Jays were bottom 10 last year against righties.

Well, Diaz and Solarte are at least better than Goins and Barney.

That said, this team gives me too much of a 2008 Jays vibe. Great pitching staff, can't hit, terrible outfield... not good enough in a top heavy division and even at best, I feel like the M's and Angels are both clearly better.

Angels, sure, they look better on paper, but the M's are projected as being worse both with the bat and in terms of pitching (and this is with pretty conservative numbers for the Jays pen).

 

[hockeywiz542]

Jared Carkuff (who?) is the 2nd piece.

 

[Leafin]

Now sign Lorenzo Cain.

 

[Garlando]

I wrote this on Solarte last offseason as part of a fantasy baseball article:
"Solarte posted a pretty good 2016 season where he slashed .286/.341/.467, with 55 R's, 15 HRs, 71 RBIs, and 1 SB in 109 games. Good for a 118 wRC+. Going into 2017, he looks to be an underrated Corner Infield option in the middle of an improving SD Padres lineup. Can he maintain his numbers or even build on them in the coming season?

Looking at his underlying numbers, he posted his highest K% in his career which was still an impressive 14.2%. He combined that with a 6.8% BB rate showing that Solarte can control the strike zone well along with making lots of contact. His BAPIP jumped up to .306 from .279 in 2015 and .275 in 2014, and that may have contributed to his .286 AVG. He did make some gains in batted ball data that I think helps his AVG though, hitting a few more line drives (up 2.3% from 2015) and less groundballs (down 2.4% from 2015) along with continuing to hit the ball harder (hard% up 6.6% from 2014). His batted ball distribution is interesting, he pulls the ball frequently achieving a 49% pull which is high. This all resulted in an ISO jump to .180 which is fairly significantly above his .159 mark from 2015 and .109 in 2014. His avg exit velocity (89.3) in 2016 shows he has average power, as he posted the same avg exit velocity of Francisco Lindor and Jay Bruce, and within .2 of Adam Jones and Bryce Harper. While I don't think he has a ton of upside, I believe Solarte has a good floor and can at least come close to maintaining his gains from 2016. Assuming he stays healthy, 15-20 HRs, with a .275/.330 AVG/OBP, and pretty good counting stats in the heart of the SD Padres lineup sounds very reasonable to me and a relative bargain at his 280 NFBC ADP."

In 2016, he traded some contact for power which led to a sort of breakout. Essentially he went from a top 11 type contact rate to a top 35 type contact rate, added some power and it was a net positive. In 2017, he ended up in between his breakout and career averages. His contact rate went back up to a well above-average 85.5% but he also tried to hit for more power by adding loft to his swing as he posted a career high 42.1 Flyball%. Ultimately, his uptick in flyballs took away from his line-drive rate (line-drives are great for BAPIP) and that hurt his batting average. This approach should be benefitted by Solarte moving to the Rogers Centre and the AL East, as his below average exit velocity and flyball distance will go further. Solarte has a bunch redeeming skills (Great contact hitter, maximizes power potential, and has defensive flexibility + affordable and controllable) and is a clear upgrade on Darwin Barney/Ryan Goins. He'll make for a great Utility player that is good enough to start, limiting the talent drop-off when Tulo/Travis are unavailable. Value on the deal is decent (although I thought Olivares was a pretty good raw 5 tool OF prospect).

 

[canucksfan]

Don’t mind this trade. Great bench option. They’ve upgraded Goins and Barney by quite a lot.

 

[Eyedea]

If it's olivares that's a good price. Everyone seems to think he's a real prospect and I just don't see it.

Still don't like the target, but the price would be right, much like in the liriano trade

Why do you not like the target? 108 wRC+ with a .190 ISO against righties this past season, had an oblique injury that wrecked his second half, but nonetheless he's an above average platoon bat with underrated power and great bat to ball skills. He's also been transitioning more and more each year to an extreme flyball orientation, and we all know flyballs at the dome mean dingers.

 

[Woodman19]

Why do you not like the target? 108 wRC+ with a .190 ISO against righties this past season, had an oblique injury that wrecked his second half, but nonetheless he's an above average platoon bat with underrated power and great bat to ball skills. He's also been transitioning more and more each year to an extreme flyball orientation, and we all know flyballs at the dome mean dingers.

Probably because Shapiro traded for him and not AA.

 

[phillipmike]

Wonder if this impacts Urena in any way.

Have Tulo, Travis and Solarte for 3 years theoretically. And Diaz for 5 if im not mistaken. Then Warmoth and Bichette behind Urena. Not sure of Gurriel is considered an option at SS too. So unless Urena has a breakout season or a lot of injuries transpire i wonder if he has enough value to be used as a trade chip to land something of use.

 

[Puckstuff]

So the infield is looking pretty good. Now just trade our outfield with the yankees outfield and we're good to go

 

[Leafin]

Solarte hasn't done it much but i wonder if he could platoon with Pearce in LF sometimes. Though i'm sure we'll find him playing time in the INF at some point.

Tulo - Travis - Solarte - Diaz

Thats solid depth imo.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Love this move. Olivares and Bradley Jones both benefited from hitting ahead of Bo and Vlad in Lansing, and then both had weaker small stints in Dunedin(though Olivares not as bad as Jones). I remember back in April people were talking about Jones potentially being a darkhorse prospect and the same followed with Olivares afterwards. Could just be coincidence as I'm not that big of a believer in protection as some people are, but Olivares had a bad start to his year in Lansing until the point where Jones got promoted and then Olivares moved into that spot in the lineup and broke out. There certainly may be something there but I'm still heavily skeptical. I think this is a pretty solid sell high on him if the team may think he did benefit from hitting ahead of Bo and Vlad. To get 3 years of a league average hitter as further depth for the middle infield is solid. Even if Tulo and Travis both get hurt now we've got Diaz and Solarte which is a massive upgrade on what we were trotting out there this year. Should be able to give both some considerable rest to both to reduce their injury risk as well

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Olivares was one of many guys wanting to make Dunedin in the outfield next year. There's depth, if not clogging, at that position.

Carkuff was mediocre and old in Lansing, and bad in Dunedin. Easily replaceable by either someone younger or better than him from Lansing or Vancouver. His spot was already going to be a huge competition.

Larger question is who do the Jays move off of the current roster if they want to bring in an OFer?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Larger question is who do the Jays move off of the current roster if they want to bring in an OFer?

Pillar is a lock unless traded obviously. I like Teoscar's chances too. But Pearce is there too and with 2 backup middle infielders you can't really afford a backup 1st baseman on the roster. Could trade Morales to open up the DH spot for Pearce. Carrera likely has a bench spot. With Alford/Pompey in Buffalo.

So 3 spots for Morales/Pearce/Teoscar/Free Agent is my best guess with the first 2 locks for roster spots unless traded.

 

[canucksfan]

Olivares was one of many guys wanting to make Dunedin in the outfield next year. There's depth, if not clogging, at that position.

Carkuff was mediocre and old in Lansing, and bad in Dunedin. Easily replaceable by either someone younger or better than him from Lansing or Vancouver. His spot was already going to be a huge competition.

Larger question is who do the Jays move off of the current roster if they want to bring in an OFer?

If possible trade Morales and let Pearce DH.