Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent II: Discontent Harder

[Nineteen67]

I recommend examining the 2017 Houston Astros rotation, month by month in terms of personnel. It may help to paint a more realistic picture of what a good rotation looks like.

Well they had some very good positional players, in fact, a couple of super stars, and they did exactly what we’d like to see the Jays do- acquired a stud pitcher to enhance an already decent rotation. Odd that a team like that would make the WS.

The Jays can wait and see how the season plays out and decide what to do next. Most around baseball anticipate they’ll be sellers.

 

[Nineteen67]

Fun fact: there are 16 pitchers in baseball who have been worth more fWAR (7.0) than Stroman in the last two years. It's no win-loss record, but it's a pretty good metric for evaluating the quality of a pitcher.

Also, Sanchez threw over 200 innings in 2016.

190 to 192 off the top of my head. If he had better command he’d be lock for 200-225 innings

 

[Discoverer]

190 to 192 off the top of my head. If he had better command he’d be lock for 200-225 innings

Include the playoffs and he threw 203.2 innings in 32 starts. If we're talking about durability, I don't see why we should exclude October.

But if you want to talk specifically about the regular season, his command had literally no effect on reaching 200 IP. He didn't get to 200 IP because they pushed a few starts back and skipped a couple others by sending him to the minors specifically in order to keep his inning increase down. That's why he started 30 games rather than a full season's 33-34.

 

[TF97]

If I’m signing Dyson, it’s to platoon with Pearce, I definitely would not give him an everyday spot. I think it’s possible you could bring in both Dyson and Cain by making a few moves. Don’t see both happening though.

 

[Nineteen67]

Include the playoffs and he threw 203.2 innings in 32 starts. If we're talking about durability, I don't see why we should exclude October.

But if you want to talk specifically about the regular season, his command had literally no effect on reaching 200 IP. He didn't get to 200 IP because they pushed a few starts back and skipped a couple others by sending him to the minors specifically in order to keep his inning increase down. That's why he started 30 games rather than a full season's 33-34.

Yep, they went with 6 starters because these fitness and diet freaks can’t pitch a whole season.

 

[Woodman19]

Yep, they went with 6 starters because these fitness and diet freaks can’t pitch a whole season.

Nice bait

 

[TOGuy14]

Bichette, Pentecost, Pompey for Yelich. Morales and minor leaguer for Hammel. Sign Cain. Ya I hate losing Bichette, but if they really want to compete in Donaldson's final year, then compete. Fact is this team needs 2 solid outfield options and a starting pitcher. If the Marlins would take Warmth instead, great.

Jesus, if they trade BB so Donaldson can have a swan song season in Toronto I am going to go burn all my Jays gear outside the Dome

 

[Lahey]

Shapiro and Atkins are actually manning the phone lines trying to sell tickets. One of them may actually call you.

Sorry what? Lol

 

[zeke]

Not buying for the glove.

Actually, anyone buying free agents for their glove is likely to be in for a rude awakening. Speed deteriorates first, then defensive prowess, then the bat speed and power. I'm more comfortable buying the latter two and developing the former two.

is this actually true? plenty of evidence shows athletic guys age better.

and bruce isn't much of a bat, anyways. you're getting Cain's bat but without the baserunning or defense.

 

[Eyedea]

Cain's defence has been in a steady decline every year since 2013. Not to say that I'm not interested in him, but he certainly doesn't seem like the kind of candidate that ages well (especially with the already well documented knee and hamstring issues).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

is this actually true? plenty of evidence shows athletic guys age better.

and bruce isn't much of a bat, anyways. you're getting Cain's bat but without the baserunning or defense.

Yes, speed and defense (specifically a player's range and quickness) peak early, and tend to deteriorate prior to the bat itself for position players (this is of course a general rule, and can vary in several cases). Has nothing to do with "athletic" vs. "non-athletic", it has to do with the skills themselves.

Cain's bat and Bruce's bat are fundamentally different things, driven by very different factors (BABIP vs. Flyball generation\ISO). And though your statement is clearly meant to be provocative, its not true.

This was never a comparison of the two players. I prefer Cain as well. I simply said that I'd be fine with signing Bruce for the price\term I quoted, or less.

 

[Leafin]

Sign both. Need to find that Morales taker first.

If you could find a deal for Yelich where Alford is the centerpiece that'd be ideal.

Yelich - Pillar - Cain would be a top outfield in baseball. That defense tho

 

[oilers89]

I trade for Yelich ONLY if it doesn't include BB or Vladdy. We could have 2 top 5 prospects in the game this season. One name no one has mentioned is mccutchen. One year left at 14 mill. Trading for him and signing cake would be cool too

 

[Leafin]

McCutchen would be an interesting target and would appease many of the casuals being a former MVP and all. I don't know how much i'd be willing to trade for him having only 1 more season left.

I wonder if Hernandez would be a piece they have interest in as a start.

 

[Discoverer]

Prospects for players with one year of control doesn't make any sense for the Jays at this point.

 

[zeke]

Recap: speed/defense players actually age well


Age 28-31

B.Jordan 1863pa, 118wrc+, 17.5war, 6.1war/650
L.Cain 2185pa, 114wrc+, 17.9war, 5.3war/650
M.Cameron 2447pa, 104wrc+, 20.0war, 5.3war/650
D.White 2514pa, 104wrc+, 19.8war, 5.1war/650
K.Lofton 2527pa, 111wrc+, 19.2war, 4.9war/650
I.Suzuki 2954pa, 117wrc+, 21.0war, 4.6war/650
R.Winn 2720pa, 115wrc+, 17.1war, 4.1war/650
C.Granderson 2613pa, 119wrc+, 16.3war, 4.1war/650
A.Soriano 2685pa, 115wrc+, 16.5war, 4.0war/650
S.Victorino 2594pa, 110wrc+, 15.3war, 3.8war/650
J.Ellsbury 2095pa, 100wrc+, 11.7war, 3.6war/650
J.Damon 2782pa, 110wrc+, 13.9war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2246pa, 111wrc+, 10.4war, 3.0war/650

well, "similars" is generous - he's been better than almost all of them and much better than a bunch of them.

Age 32-35

I.Suzuki 2915pa, 113wrc+, 21.4war, 4.8war/650
J.Damon 2525pa, 116wrc+, 13.3war, 3.4war/650
M.Cameron 2136pa, 113wrc+, 12.5war, 3.8war/650
K.Lofton 2388pa, 103wrc+, 12.0war, 3.3war/650
B.Jordon 2302pa, 105wrc+, 11.8war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2409pa, 120wrc+, 11.2war, 3.0war/650
R.Winn 2552pa, 94wrc+, 11.0war, 2.8war/650
C.Granderson 2214pa, 116wrc+, 10.5war, 3.1war/650
D.White 2011pa, 100wrc+, 9.3war, 3.0war/650
A.Soriano 2081pa, 104wrc+, 7.6war, 2.4war/650
S.Victorino 869pa, 102wrc+, 6.0war, 4.5war/650
J.Ellsbury 1035pa, 95wrc+, 3.6war, 2.3war/650

 

[zeke]

now let me look at more bat-heavy good players.

i'll look at the last 20yrs. players 28-31 with negative defense ratings, and see how they fared the next 4yrs.

i'll just look at the guys on the first page of fangraphs' search result:

28-31

Arod: 2795pa, 154wrc+, 29.1war, 6.8war/650
Giambi: 2719pa, 175wrc+, 28.7war, 6.9war/650
Pujols: 2692pa, 169wrc+, 27.9war, 6.7war/650
Giles: 2633pa, 158wrc+, 25.4war, 6.3war/650
Helton: 2680pa, 154wrc+, 23.1war, 5.6war/650
Bagwell: 2107pa, 164wrc+, 22.5war, 6.9war/650
Holliday: 2484pa, 146wrc+, 22.0war, 5.8war/650
Chipper: 2681pa, 148wrc+, 21.9war, 5.3war/650
Thome: 2570pa, 157wrc+, 21.4war, 5.4war/650
Ortiz: 2735pa, 159wrc+, 21.1war, 5.0war/650
Manny: 2349pa, 169wrc+, 21.1war, 5.8war/650
Delgado: 2748pa, 157wrc+, 20.9war, 4.9war/650
Sosa: 2833pa, 138wrc+, 20.7war, 4.8war/650
Abreu: 2812pa, 139wrc+, 20.3war, 4.7war/650
Youk: 2269pa, 143wrc+, 20.3war, 5.8war/650
Bernie: 2482pa, 148wrc+, 19.7war, 5.2war/650
Teixeira: 2788pa, 136wrc+, 19.7war, 4.6war

32-35

Sosa 2505pa, 150wrc+, 20.1war, 5.2war/650
Bagwell 2829pa, 141wrc+, 19.7war, 4.5war/650
Chipper 2076pa, 146wrc+, 19.0war, 6.0war/650
Giles 2711pa, 132wrc+, 18.5war, 4.4war/650
Arod 2152pa, 136wrc+, 17.8war, 5.4war/650
Thome 2168pa, 140wrc+, 13.2war, 4.0war/650
Holliday 2234pa, 138wrc+, 13.0war, 3.8war/650
Giambi 2136pa, 144wrc+, 12.2war, 3.7war/650
Abreu 2736pa, 124wrc+, 11.2war, 2.7war/650
Manny 2440pa, 149wrc+, 10.3war, 2.7war/650
Helton 2337pa, 123wrc+, 9.4war, 2.6war/650
Delgado 2392pa, 127wrc+, 9.0war, 2.5war/650
Pujols 2469pa, 121wrc+, 8.8war, 2.3war/650
Ortiz 2329pa, 128wrc+, 8.2war, 2.3war/650
Teixeira 1557pa, 117wrc+, 6.6war, 2.8war/650
Youkilis 1144pa, 111wrc+, 4.1war, 2.3war/650


tbh it legit looks to me like the all bat guys age worse.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Recap: speed/defense players actually age well


Age 28-31

B.Jordan 1863pa, 118wrc+, 17.5war, 6.1war/650
L.Cain 2185pa, 114wrc+, 17.9war, 5.3war/650
M.Cameron 2447pa, 104wrc+, 20.0war, 5.3war/650
D.White 2514pa, 104wrc+, 19.8war, 5.1war/650
K.Lofton 2527pa, 111wrc+, 19.2war, 4.9war/650
I.Suzuki 2954pa, 117wrc+, 21.0war, 4.6war/650
R.Winn 2720pa, 115wrc+, 17.1war, 4.1war/650
C.Granderson 2613pa, 119wrc+, 16.3war, 4.1war/650
A.Soriano 2685pa, 115wrc+, 16.5war, 4.0war/650
S.Victorino 2594pa, 110wrc+, 15.3war, 3.8war/650
J.Ellsbury 2095pa, 100wrc+, 11.7war, 3.6war/650
J.Damon 2782pa, 110wrc+, 13.9war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2246pa, 111wrc+, 10.4war, 3.0war/650

well, "similars" is generous - he's been better than almost all of them and much better than a bunch of them.

Age 32-35

I.Suzuki 2915pa, 113wrc+, 21.4war, 4.8war/650
J.Damon 2525pa, 116wrc+, 13.3war, 3.4war/650
M.Cameron 2136pa, 113wrc+, 12.5war, 3.8war/650
K.Lofton 2388pa, 103wrc+, 12.0war, 3.3war/650
B.Jordon 2302pa, 105wrc+, 11.8war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2409pa, 120wrc+, 11.2war, 3.0war/650
R.Winn 2552pa, 94wrc+, 11.0war, 2.8war/650
C.Granderson 2214pa, 116wrc+, 10.5war, 3.1war/650
D.White 2011pa, 100wrc+, 9.3war, 3.0war/650
A.Soriano 2081pa, 104wrc+, 7.6war, 2.4war/650
S.Victorino 869pa, 102wrc+, 6.0war, 4.5war/650
J.Ellsbury 1035pa, 95wrc+, 3.6war, 2.3war/650

Now post the RngR and UZR trend over the same years.

Then post which of those players had ISO's below .150 from ages 26-30.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The Jays have the money for Josh Donaldson, and still they wait

How dare they...

 

[Discoverer]

The Jays have the money for Josh Donaldson, and still they wait

How dare they...

Oh, Richard.

 

[Nineteen67]

The Jays have the money for Josh Donaldson, and still they wait

How dare they...

“But does Jays ownership really believe it can contend in the next two to three seasons or will it try to trick fans into staying on board with a mediocre outfield and an incomplete rotation while waiting for the next generation?”

How are season ticket sales going?

 

[Anthrax442]

The Jays have the money for Josh Donaldson, and still they wait

How dare they...

It must be because Shapiro and Atkins hate us.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I had previously held in my mind that a signing of Cain would lead to the shopping of Kevin Pillar. But now I'm thinking closer along the lines playing both side by side (in CF, Pillar, and in RF Cain), and shifting them to essentially make the smallest LF in baseball for Steve Pearce (and Solarte). That's to start the season, and then of course if Pearce breaks down, Alford\Teoscar\Smith Jr.\Pompey, or whomever is playing best in Triple-A would be called up to take the spot.

Or, alternatively, if one of them blows away Spring Training, they assume the spot, and Pearce goes back to his part time fill in role at 1B\DH\LF. If two or more (Teoscar and Alford) are raking, then you can shop Pillar in season. Makes a good amount of sense.

The 2019 outfield would likely be some combination of Alford - Cain - Teoscar, with Cain moving permanently to RF for 2020 and 2021.

 

[Discoverer]

I had previously held in my mind that a signing of Cain would lead to the shopping of Kevin Pillar. But now I'm thinking closer along the lines playing both side by side (in CF, Pillar, and in RF Cain), and shifting them to essentially make the smallest LF in baseball for Steve Pearce (and Solarte). That's to start the season, and then of course if Pearce breaks down, Alford\Teoscar\Smith Jr.\Pompey, or whomever is playing best in Triple-A would be called up to take the spot.

Or, alternatively, if one of them blows away Spring Training, they assume the spot, and Pearce goes back to his part time fill in role at 1B\DH\LF. If two or more (Teoscar and Alford) are raking, then you can shop Pillar in season. Makes a good amount of sense.

The 2019 outfield would likely be some combination of Alford - Cain - Teoscar, with Cain moving permanently to RF for 2020 and 2021.

Yeah, like with any player, trading Pillar makes sense if someone else wants to overpay for him, but I've never really understood the desire to sign a new CF and then move him. Having an excellent defender in a corner spot is a good thing.

The only one that sort of makes sense is the "Pillar for a better offensive corner outfielder" suggestions, but even then I would probably prefer to just stick with an outstanding defensive group where one of the corner guys can cover in CF when needed.