Winnipeg Sun: Jets, Mark Chipman, call for help as attendance decreases

[Cynicaps]

The NHL has a very poor record of vetting potential owners. Bruce McNall, Peter Pocklington, Norm Green, Jim Spanos and the Islanders debacle. I heard that the potential owner wanting to move the Penguins to KC ended up doing some time at club Fed recently.

This goes back even further. Ralston-Purina, Tom Cousens, Mel Swig, the ownership group of the KC Scouts, the minority owner consortium who had the Whalers between Howard Baldwin and Peter Karmanos, the list goes on and on.

 

[Jets4Life]

This goes back even further. Ralston-Purina, Tom Cousens, Mel Swig, the ownership group of the KC Scouts, the minority owner consortium who had the Whalers between Howard Baldwin and Peter Karmanos, the list goes on and on.

Karmanos was really something. He was a native of Detroit, and had been friends with fellow Detroit millionaire Mike Illitch (who also had the same ethnic background as him), as Karmanos wanted to either purchase the Red Wings, or become a minority owner of the team. They had a fallout, and became enemies. Karmanos had no intention of keeping the Whalers in Hartford. IN fact, he was in negotiations with owners of The Palace in Auburn Hills (home of the Detroit Pistons), about bringing a second NHL team to Detroit to compete with Illitch and the Red Wings.

When the owners outright rejected this, Karmanos made impossible demands on the city of Hartford, and eventually broke the lease with the city, and moved the franchise out of Hartford, with no idea where he was going with it. His initial plan was to play in Columbus, out of an old airport hanger, until a new arena was constructed. This was one of the reasons that Columbus ended up getting an NHL franchise, as the Karmanos incident was nightmare PR for the NHL in Ohio, especially when one considers how poorly the franchise in Cleveland did 20 years prior.

Karmanos lost upwards of $50 million in his first 3-4 years in Carolina, especially when one considers they played in Greensboro for the fist two years, a regional rival to Raleigh that never wanted nor desired the team to be there in the first place. Residents of the city were bitter that Greensboro was having their name dragged through the mud, when national media like Sports Illustrated would point out what a disaster the move was.

This article gives you a sense of just how petty and vindictive a sports owner can be. The contract offer that the Hurricanes made to holdout Sergei Federov by Karmanos was structured in a way to hurt the Red Wings as much as possible, and drive up NHL salaries at the time:

How's It Goin', Pete?

 

[Albatros]

Karmanos was really something. He was a native of Detroit, and had been friends with fellow Detroit millionaire Mike Illitch (who also had the same ethnic background as him)

Actually Karmanos is of Greek, Ilitch of Slavic Macedonian ancestry. Two ethnic groups that traditionally don't get along all that well. Although the Karmanos family is not from Macedonia in particular.

 

[GindyDraws]

Yes...but...the Jets barely avoided blowing a playoff berth...the window looks to be closing vs opening. Will the downward attendance trend continue? Any Jet fans should worry about your own house before throwing more shade on others.

Coz it ain't looking good for y"all either.

And that's why I am anti-arena in Arizona.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

And that's why I am anti-arena in Arizona.

Well unlike some you do own your pettiness, then. Cheers.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

It’s not a Quebec or small market thing. It’s a product thing. If the market doesn’t believe in the product, they’re not going to keep consuming it. Philadelphia ran around for umpteen years about being the #1 hockey city in America and they’re giving tickets away to be half-full right now.

I disagree. It’s totally a small market thing (along with stagnant growth). I know a lot of big market teams have struggled at certain points, but market size and growth helps them rebound faster. Nobody questions how passionate fans in Winnipeg are, but in a city of under a million that’s really not growing, ownership has to rely on the the same people and limited number of corporations to buy tickets every year. That’s not sustainable very long. We’re seeing this even happening to a playoff-bound Jets team this year

 

[Fatass]

I disagree. It’s totally a small market thing (along with stagnant growth). I know a lot of big market teams have struggled at certain points, but market size and growth helps them rebound faster. Nobody questions how passionate fans in Winnipeg are, but in a city of under a million that’s really not growing, ownership has to rely on the the same people and limited number of corporations to buy tickets every year. That’s not sustainable very long.

Exactly how (and why) is relying on the same great fans, both corporate and the individual, not sustainable? Seems to me there are 1 million passionate hockey fans in the Winnipeg area. Whereas in a place like Atlanta they would have no where near that number.

 

[GKJ]

I disagree. It’s totally a small market thing (along with stagnant growth). I know a lot of big market teams have struggled at certain points, but market size and growth helps them rebound faster. Nobody questions how passionate fans in Winnipeg are, but in a city of under a million that’s really not growing, ownership has to rely on the the same people and limited number of corporations to buy tickets every year. That’s not sustainable very long. We’re seeing this even happening to a playoff-bound Jets team this year

The fan base has been despondent over this group of players for a few years now though. Feeding them the same thing over and over again, when they’re not a contending team, wears everyone out. They know the arrow is pointing down. And you only make new fans when you have a compelling product. Which almost no one in this league really does.

 

[Guttersniped]

Is this really the best strategy for them to sell season tickets?

Whoever made that should be fired, so no, I don’t think it’s the best… strategy?

Is that’s happening? The tone goes from a sense of insecurity to mild pride to passive aggressive threat. (Also if I was a player that would very much not sell me on the team lol.)

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Exactly how (and why) is relying on the same great fans, both corporate and the individual, not sustainable? Seems to me there are 1 million passionate hockey fans in the Winnipeg area. Whereas in a place like Atlanta they would have no where near that number.

Economics. Only so much money out there. Not only does Atlanta now have a metro area almost 9 times the population of Winnipeg, but it’s been growing rapidly. When this happens, corporations follow the migration and teams can then also get corporate $$.

 

[Fatass]

Economics. Only so much money out there. Not only does Atlanta now have a metro area almost 9 times the population of Winnipeg, but it’s been growing rapidly. When this happens, corporations follow the migration and teams can then also get corporate $$.

Do any of those people really care about hockey though? Or does that not matter? Isn’t the Phoenix area really big?

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

The fan base has been despondent over this group of players for a few years now though. Feeding them the same thing over and over again, when they’re not a contending team, wears everyone out. They know the arrow is pointing down. And you only make new fans when you have a compelling product. Which almost no one in this league really does.

I know they’re not a top tier team this year, but they are a playoff team.

Again, I know big market teams can have poor attendance, but larger, growing populations can rebound much more quickly.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Do any of those people really care about hockey though? Or does that not matter? Isn’t the Phoenix area really big?

Certainly big market teams have cycles in attendance, and performance and ownership definitely plays a role. But relying on a small population to buy tickets year in and year out is dangerous.

And growth is key. Atlanta actually had good attendance prior to ASG buying the team. And the city has changed so much since. Just in the last 10 years Atlanta has added 2 Winnipegs (population)

 

[Fatass]

Certainly big market teams have cycles in attendance, and performance and ownership definitely plays a role. But relying on a small population to buy tickets year in and year out is dangerous.

And growth is key. Atlanta actually had good attendance prior to ASG buying the team. And the city has changed so much since. Just in the last 10 years Atlanta has added 2 Winnipegs (population)

These are good points but there’s a reason why players like the anonymity most US markets provide. In Canada hockey is King. In Atlanta where does hockey rank? Football, baseball, basketball, college sports, high school football, NASCAR (which I think I’ve ranked too low) and then soccer and the (maybe?) hockey. If the team isn’t winning right away it will be a very difficult sell.
Is there even ice down there? Do kids play hockey? Do people ever watch on TV?
It’s about money for sure. But if it was about fans then QC is the location to put a club.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Do any of those people really care about hockey though? Or does that not matter? Isn’t the Phoenix area really big?

People will care if they put out good product. You think people in Philadelphia or Washington cared about NHL before the team was good? No.

These are good points but there’s a reason why players like the anonymity most US markets provide. In Canada hockey is King. In Atlanta where does hockey rank? Football, baseball, basketball, college sports, high school football, NASCAR (which I think I’ve ranked too low) and then soccer and the (maybe?) hockey. If the team isn’t winning right away it will be a very difficult sell.
Is there even ice down there? Do kids play hockey? Do people ever watch on TV?
It’s about money for sure. But if it was about fans then QC is the location to put a club.

Thats the thing. Fan support is only part of the equation. You also need corporate base to sell to. From what I am hearing, Winnipeg's issue is that.

 

[Jets4Life]

I disagree. It’s totally a small market thing (along with stagnant growth). I know a lot of big market teams have struggled at certain points, but market size and growth helps them rebound faster. Nobody questions how passionate fans in Winnipeg are, but in a city of under a million that’s really not growing, ownership has to rely on the the same people and limited number of corporations to buy tickets every year. That’s not sustainable very long. We’re seeing this even happening to a playoff-bound Jets team this year

The Winnipeg metro area has actually grown above average for Canadian cities during the past 15 years. It's a small market, but the population has increased from 745,800 when the Jets returned in 2011 to 871,800 in 2022.

 

[Jets4Life]

And growth is key. Atlanta actually had good attendance prior to ASG buying the team. And the city has changed so much since. Just in the last 10 years Atlanta has added 2 Winnipegs (population)

Atlanta, while no doubt fast growing, only gained roughly 750,000 not 1.6 million people in the past 10 years. Obviously Atlanta would work with the right ownership.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

The Winnipeg metro area has actually grown above average for Canadian cities during the past 15 years. It's a small market, but the population has increased from 745,800 when the Jets returned in 2011 to 871,800 in 2022.

Well, then I stand corrected on the growth comment.

But that really does show why the NHL wants to be in Houston in Atlanta. In that same timeframe, EACH of these cities have grown by a million plus.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

The Winnipeg metro area has actually grown above average for Canadian cities during the past 15 years. It's a small market, but the population has increased from 745,800 when the Jets returned in 2011 to 871,800 in 2022.

Over 1 million is probably the benchmark to keep the team long term regardless of ownership.

 

[LPHabsFan]

Certainly big market teams have cycles in attendance, and performance and ownership definitely plays a role. But relying on a small population to buy tickets year in and year out is dangerous.

And growth is key. Atlanta actually had good attendance prior to ASG buying the team. And the city has changed so much since. Just in the last 10 years Atlanta has added 2 Winnipegs (population)

Market size and growth/potential are only theoretical concepts that people rely on to sell the impression that you can make more money later when I'd be very curious to know how many times it actually pans out. For the NHL specifically, we've seen countless times where all of that mean pretty much nothing.

My feelings on Quebec getting or not getting a team are very complicated and has to do with local and language politics in the province. But if the question is which would be more profitable, it's hands down Quebec City because the likelihood of them meeting their revenue goals, since it's all hypothetical at this point, is much, much higher than Atlanta, or most other American markets, will ever be.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Market size and growth/potential are only theoretical concepts that people rely on to sell the impression that you can make more money later when I'd be very curious to know how many times it actually pans out. For the NHL specifically, we've seen countless times where all of that mean pretty much nothing.

My feelings on Quebec getting or not getting a team are very complicated and has to do with local and language politics in the province. But if the question is which would be more profitable, it's hands down Quebec City because the likelihood of them meeting their revenue goals, since it's all hypothetical at this point, is much, much higher than Atlanta, or most other American markets, will ever be.

Some of this concept is being discussed in the Jets thread. Basically, population growth is key, not just for individual ratings and butts in the seats, but corporations follow the growth. The sunbelt markets such as Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, and even tiny markets like Greenville, SC and Savannah have exploded over the last decade and companies have followed. Atlanta has had HUGE corporate growth over the last decade and as we're leaning in that Jets thread, their wallets are super important to a team's financial bottom line.

My own opinion on QC is similar to Winnipeg. I'd never question the fan's passion for hockey. Among the strongest in the world. But in a city under 1 million, ownership (over time) has to rely on the same people and same corporations buying tickets all the time (40 home games a year is a lot for a small city). The love for the sport is certainly there, but bad economies and a long stretch of a rebuilding team gets magnified big time in smaller populations.

 

[LPHabsFan]

Some of this concept is being discussed in the Jets thread. Basically, population growth is key, not just for individual ratings and butts in the seats, but corporations follow the growth. The sunbelt markets such as Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, and even tiny markets like Greenville, SC and Savannah have exploded over the last decade and companies have followed. Atlanta has had HUGE corporate growth over the last decade and as we're leaning in that Jets thread, their wallets are super important to a team's financial bottom line.

My own opinion on QC is similar to Winnipeg. I'd never question the fan's passion for hockey. Among the strongest in the world. But in a city under 1 million, ownership (over time) has to rely on the same people and same corporations buying tickets all the time (40 home games a year is a lot for a small city). The love for the sport is certainly there, but bad economies and a long stretch of a rebuilding team gets magnified big time in smaller populations.

None of that actually counters any of what I said. The people who are supportive of these types of moves are relying on completely hypothetical and based on now numerous other examples, unrealistic hopes. You can say that they have a market of 6 million or even more but the assumption is that you actually have a chance of reaching all those people when we know it is not going to happen. What percentage of the people in that area are actually, realistically potential customers. Guaranteed it is a HELL of a lot less than the total population and given what's gone on in the past I'd say it's a lost less than even 25% of the population.

Growth whether at the population or corporate level only matters if you can actually reach them. History shows that's not going to happen.

There are right now 750 000 people in Winnipeg. Based on ratings, they get about 250 000 on an average night. Add in another 50k - 75k for people who aren't watching but are interested and that's who you're making money off of.

Now lets take Atlanta. They have a population of 6.1 million. I can't find the ratings but somehow I don't think even in the best of times it came anywhere close to reaching those levels.

Then we can compare ticket and game day revenue, sponsorships, regional TV contract (a lot for WPG and not a lot for ATL), impact on national contract (a lot for WPG and not a lot for ATL) and a whole slew of other factors.

So again, I ask myself and others what's the point of having 6.1 or more million customers if you can't and won't reach them?

Even look at a team that's considered successful in Tampa Bay. Everything I said above about Atlanta is the same for them. Their ratings are a little more than a 1/3rd. Would have to look at ticket prices, other revenue, contracts etc but it's a guarantee it's not more than Winnipeg.

All of this applies to a ton of other teams. Quebec City may only have just under 550k people but I would still put money on them having better ratings than any of the above teams and bringing in more money than the other teams hands down. Also, that's just the city population. You're also not taking into account the number of people from elsewhere in Quebec who would watch because of language reasons that I won't go into here and the fact that it's not the Habs.

Because as much as people want to say that Quebec is already saturated, it's really not when you really break things down.

By the way, this post may give off the impression that I'm one of the typical pro Canada anti southern market etc posters. I'm really not. But we're talking nitty gritty business here and that's what it is. This belief in potential and city size almost always leads to failure especially in hockey.

At best, what you want are situations like in San Jose where from year to year, they're pretty much hovering around the line between red and black from what I remember someone saying a few years ago. Quebec would probably be in a similar situation. What they wouldn't be is a drain on the league losing 10's of millions of dollars year after year like the team who shall not be named have been for the past 15 years and what Atlanta was as well.

Anyways, this has been my little rant on the subject.

 

[sawchuk1971]

These are good points but there’s a reason why players like the anonymity most US markets provide. In Canada hockey is King. In Atlanta where does hockey rank? Football, baseball, basketball, college sports, high school football, NASCAR (which I think I’ve ranked too low) and then soccer and the (maybe?) hockey. If the team isn’t winning right away it will be a very difficult sell.
Is there even ice down there? Do kids play hockey? Do people ever watch on TV?
It’s about money for sure. But if it was about fans then QC is the location to put a club.

i think its changing now...

you have sunbelt teams that are winning (florida, tampa, carolina, nashville)....

also, those teams are growing the game by attracting kids to play ice hockey...

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

None of that actually counters any of what I said. The people who are supportive of these types of moves are relying on completely hypothetical and based on now numerous other examples, unrealistic hopes. You can say that they have a market of 6 million or even more but the assumption is that you actually have a chance of reaching all those people when we know it is not going to happen. What percentage of the people in that area are actually, realistically potential customers. Guaranteed it is a HELL of a lot less than the total population and given what's gone on in the past I'd say it's a lost less than even 25% of the population.

Growth whether at the population or corporate level only matters if you can actually reach them. History shows that's not going to happen.

There are right now 750 000 people in Winnipeg. Based on ratings, they get about 250 000 on an average night. Add in another 50k - 75k for people who aren't watching but are interested and that's who you're making money off of.

Now lets take Atlanta. They have a population of 6.1 million. I can't find the ratings but somehow I don't think even in the best of times it came anywhere close to reaching those levels.

Then we can compare ticket and game day revenue, sponsorships, regional TV contract (a lot for WPG and not a lot for ATL), impact on national contract (a lot for WPG and not a lot for ATL) and a whole slew of other factors.

So again, I ask myself and others what's the point of having 6.1 or more million customers if you can't and won't reach them?

Even look at a team that's considered successful in Tampa Bay. Everything I said above about Atlanta is the same for them. Their ratings are a little more than a 1/3rd. Would have to look at ticket prices, other revenue, contracts etc but it's a guarantee it's not more than Winnipeg.

All of this applies to a ton of other teams. Quebec City may only have just under 550k people but I would still put money on them having better ratings than any of the above teams and bringing in more money than the other teams hands down. Also, that's just the city population. You're also not taking into account the number of people from elsewhere in Quebec who would watch because of language reasons that I won't go into here and the fact that it's not the Habs.

Because as much as people want to say that Quebec is already saturated, it's really not when you really break things down.

By the way, this post may give off the impression that I'm one of the typical pro Canada anti southern market etc posters. I'm really not. But we're talking nitty gritty business here and that's what it is. This belief in potential and city size almost always leads to failure especially in hockey.

At best, what you want are situations like in San Jose where from year to year, they're pretty much hovering around the line between red and black from what I remember someone saying a few years ago. Quebec would probably be in a similar situation. What they wouldn't be is a drain on the league losing 10's of millions of dollars year after year like the team who shall not be named have been for the past 15 years and what Atlanta was as well.

Anyways, this has been my little rant on the subject.

I'm certainly not saying that 6.1 million people in Atlanta would be watching hockey every night, but the point is, Atlanta has the opportunity to grow whatever revenue they're making (both fans and corporate) all the time. Markets with little to no growth doesn't have that opportunity. They need the same fans showing up all the time. By your logic Stoney Rapids, Saskatchewan should have a team because they're crazed hockey fans there.

You assume Tampa's or Atlanta's revenue will never be what Winnipeg's is....uhhhh...are you forgetting what thread we're in? Check out the first post. Also remember that QC and Winnipeg have also had teams leave, so let's not pretend they're invincible hockey markets.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

These are good points but there’s a reason why players like the anonymity most US markets provide. In Canada hockey is King. In Atlanta where does hockey rank? Football, baseball, basketball, college sports, high school football, NASCAR (which I think I’ve ranked too low) and then soccer and the (maybe?) hockey. If the team isn’t winning right away it will be a very difficult sell.
Is there even ice down there? Do kids play hockey? Do people ever watch on TV?
It’s about money for sure. But if it was about fans then QC is the location to put a club.

As I said in other posts, I don't question the passion for hockey in a lot of smaller markets throughout Canada and other places. But, like the title of this thread shows, that alone doesn't equal revenue.