Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[voyageur]

This goes back much further then those you mentioned though.

Roslovic was developed similarly to Lambert with similar AHL results. He gets to the show and he's put on the wing and never really trialed at center. They instead put Wheeler and others in the middle. Same thing with Copp. Stays at wing despite clearly being capable of being a middle 6 C as we've seen since he left.

This org doesn't seem to have the patience no matter who it is to stick with them as a center.

It would he the same with Lundell if he were here instead of Cole.

Development doesn't just happen prior to the NHL. There is a learning curve at the NHL that this org just refuses to live with.

You can really never have enough centres in your lineup. Dallas is a good example. Little was always a better centre than Roslovic, especially on the dot, so when the time came for Roslovic to move from 4C to 2C, he didn't exactly run away with the job, and has never held it consistently in his career...Wheeler was better choice, at that time. Copp as a 2C has never panned out, but still remains the best return you could get for a borderline 2C in crunch time. It's nice to have these guys when players go down. Like Big Adam Lowry, because you don't miss a beat in replacement level.

2C has been the most talked about position with the Jets even before Little went down. Brad Lambert to me seems like the answer here. Maybe it's another development year, maybe half a year. Maybe it's right out of camp. A healthy year from Lucius and he might even have some competition down the road. Checking line centres, and 4th line centres are in the pipeline. Jets may turn Barron into a centre down the road, which is the least valued piece of the Copp deal. Jets did have a lag in centre drafting and development, after 2011, but the team we started with wasn't very good at too many positions. I'd say they are getting with the program now.

 

[surixon]

You can really never have enough centres in your lineup. Dallas is a good example. Little was always a better centre than Roslovic, especially on the dot, so when the time came for Roslovic to move from 4C to 2C, he didn't exactly run away with the job, and has never held it consistently in his career...Wheeler was better choice, at that time. Copp as a 2C has never panned out, but still remains the best return you could get for a borderline 2C in crunch time. It's nice to have these guys when players go down. Like Big Adam Lowry, because you don't miss a beat in replacement level.

2C has been the most talked about position with the Jets even before Little went down. Brad Lambert to me seems like the answer here. Maybe it's another development year, maybe half a year. Maybe it's right out of camp. A healthy year from Lucius and he might even have some competition down the road. Checking line centres, and 4th line centres are in the pipeline. Jets may turn Barron into a centre down the road, which is the least valued piece of the Copp deal. Jets did have a lag in centre drafting and development, after 2011, but the team we started with wasn't very good at too many positions. I'd say they are getting with the program now.

Little went down early in 2020 and they never gave Copp or Roslovic a shot. They went right to converting a career winger in his 30's.

They then went out and brought in Cody Eakin to be our 2C heading into the playoffs over what they had.

They then bring in a well passed his prime Stastny to play C instead of trusting their home grown players.

I like Lambert and think he can be a center but I have very little faith in this org actually giving him a legit opportunity to do it. Much like with Perfetti I feel if things don't go to plan quickly they will pull the plug and bring in the next mediocre vet to fill the hole.

Nothing in the orgs history the last decade tells me otherwise.

 

[Whileee]

I'll stay firmly on the Namestnikov bandwagon for the 2-3 C slot. It seems that Arniel likes him there, too. Maybe Arniel and the coaches are looking at the data to project him in that role.

Last season at 5v5 the lines centered by Lowry and Namestnikov were a combined +20 in goals and +16 in expected goals. When Namestnikov centered the 2/3 line the Jets were +10 in goals and +5 in expected goals, despite playing about half as much as Scheifele and Lowry at 5v5. In contrast, lines including Scheifele and Connor were -1 in goals and -8 in expected goals at 5v5.

Below is a quick graphic that shows how the Jets top 3 lines fared last season in GF% and xGF% (with time on ice as the bubble size).

My overall conclusion is that the Jets are fine in the middle-6 with Lowry and Namestnikov anchoring those lines. They need to solve the 1st line problem with Connor-Scheifele.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A good part of this is because Chevy sticks with BPA and refuses to move up/down in draft.

Sticking to BPA leads you to drafting a bunch of Wingers and LHD’s.

BPA is the right approach. I’m not arguing against that. But if you’re not willing to move around on draft day, or acquire more picks to take some boom/bust prospects… you’re gonna have a hard time acquiring C’s and RHD’s.

It needs to be a modified BPA with a multiplier based on position. C comes first, followed by RHD, LHD, RW, LW. Both wings can be back-filled with players drafted at C but who don't end up at C in the NHL.

That doesn't mean you never draft W. It means that W need to be clearly rated higher than the available talent at C & D, especially RHD.

 

[voyageur]

Little went down early in 2020 and they never gave Copp or Roslovic a shot. They went right to converting a career winger in his 30's.

They then went out and brought in Cody Eakin to be our 2C heading into the playoffs over what they had.

They then bring in a well passed his prime Stastny to play C instead of trusting their home grown players.

I like Lambert and think he can be a center but I have very little faith in this org actually giving him a legit opportunity to do it. Much like with Perfetti I feel if things don't go to plan quickly they will pull the plug and bring in the next mediocre vet to fill the hole.

Nothing in the orgs history the last decade tells me otherwise.

Do you think Copp and Roslovic are legitimate 2Cs...neither of them have led teams to the playoffs in that role? Copp got lucky to centre Panarin and Strome for a stretch. But I remember there being a good discussion on here about his potential to centre Laine and Ehlers when Little couldn't do it, and most people believed he wasn't good enough.

Realistically looking back at the 2020 season it's a miracle that team was even in competition for a playoff spot. Eakin didn't pan out, and I think it was Copp who replace Scheif after game 1, but if it wasn't for Wheeler's brief work in the middle, I don't think the Jets ever get Dylan De Melo as an addition to the team, so that's a win.

Stastny as 2C got the Jets to the playoffs. Dubois as 2C was 1 for 2, and out the door so fast the year he did, we couldn't say goodbye, so I'll take that trade.

And here we are. You could be right on the future based on the past, but I hope the winds have changed.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Where do you see Lambert’s ceiling? Maybe like a Barzal?

In D+3 Barzal exceeded ppg in the NHL, not the AHL. Do you think Lambert can do that this coming season?

 

[voyageur]

I'll stay firmly on the Namestnikov bandwagon for the 2-3 C slot. It seems that Arniel likes him there, too. Maybe Arniel and the coaches are looking at the data to project him in that role.

Last season at 5v5 the lines centered by Lowry and Namestnikov were a combined +20 in goals and +16 in expected goals. When Namestnikov centered the 2/3 line the Jets were +10 in goals and +5 in expected goals, despite playing about half as much as Scheifele and Lowry at 5v5. In contrast, lines including Scheifele and Connor were -1 in goals and -8 in expected goals at 5v5.

Below is a quick graphic that shows how the Jets top 3 lines fared last season in GF% and xGF% (with time on ice as the bubble size).

My overall conclusion is that the Jets are fine in the middle-6 with Lowry and Namestnikov anchoring those lines. They need to solve the 1st line problem with Connor-Scheifele.

View attachment 901218

I believe you are right here, but for reference could you compare the amount of d-zones starts for Scheifele vs. Namestnikov, because I am sure that is a factor in goals against. Are EN GA a factor too?

 

[DRW204]

I'll stay firmly on the Namestnikov bandwagon for the 2-3 C slot. It seems that Arniel likes him there, too. Maybe Arniel and the coaches are looking at the data to project him in that role.

Last season at 5v5 the lines centered by Lowry and Namestnikov were a combined +20 in goals and +16 in expected goals. When Namestnikov centered the 2/3 line the Jets were +10 in goals and +5 in expected goals, despite playing about half as much as Scheifele and Lowry at 5v5. In contrast, lines including Scheifele and Connor were -1 in goals and -8 in expected goals at 5v5.

Below is a quick graphic that shows how the Jets top 3 lines fared last season in GF% and xGF% (with time on ice as the bubble size).

My overall conclusion is that the Jets are fine in the middle-6 with Lowry and Namestnikov anchoring those lines. They need to solve the 1st line problem with Connor-Scheifele.

View attachment 901218

Although Lowry GF% is high, their GF /60 is pretty pedestrian if I recall which isn't what you want for a top 6 line. Unless you're scheifeles line you will likely rate pretty well on the GA side given Helle is net.

IMO the second line needed to see more mins with Names

 

[surixon]

I'll stay firmly on the Namestnikov bandwagon for the 2-3 C slot. It seems that Arniel likes him there, too. Maybe Arniel and the coaches are looking at the data to project him in that role.

Last season at 5v5 the lines centered by Lowry and Namestnikov were a combined +20 in goals and +16 in expected goals. When Namestnikov centered the 2/3 line the Jets were +10 in goals and +5 in expected goals, despite playing about half as much as Scheifele and Lowry at 5v5. In contrast, lines including Scheifele and Connor were -1 in goals and -8 in expected goals at 5v5.

Below is a quick graphic that shows how the Jets top 3 lines fared last season in GF% and xGF% (with time on ice as the bubble size).

My overall conclusion is that the Jets are fine in the middle-6 with Lowry and Namestnikov anchoring those lines. They need to solve the 1st line problem with Connor-Scheifele.

View attachment 901218

The first line is a pretty big issue and has been for years now.

Last year we did get excellent outscoring from the middle 6 but I question how likely it is to continue.

Let's look at the Lowry line: They have bested their matchups and actual goal differentials in 2 of the last 4 years. Given that very up and down performance, I'm not as confident they can continue to prop up a top line that hemerages metrics and goals. I would expect some regression and them to be closer to break even in terms of actual goals.

Cole and Ehlers are the two big metric and goal differential players on the team and I think we lose something playing the two on the same line. One of the two needs to be up with Scheifele imo. Both have shown they can elevate him to positive metric and goal differentials. Cole has also shown he can elevate KC to positive results.

If this team wants to have similar success they are likely going to have to try to create three outscoring lines. I don't think we can count on our middle 6 destroying the opposition by enough again to prop up a crappy top line.

 

[voyageur]

The first line is a pretty big issue and has been for years now.

Last year we did get excellent outscoring from the middle 6 but I question how likely it is to continue.

Let's look at the Lowry line: They have bested their matchups and actual goal differentials in 2 of the last 4 years. Given that very up and down performance, I'm not as confident they can continue to prop up a top line that hemerages metrics and goals. I would expect some regression and them to be closer to break even in terms of actual goals.

Cole and Ehlers are the two big metric and goal differential players on the team and I think we lose something playing the two on the same line. One of the two needs to be up with Scheifele imo. Both have shown they can elevate him to positive metric and goal differentials. Cole has also shown he can elevate KC to positive results.

If this team wants to have similar success they are likely going to have to try to create three outscoring lines. I don't think we can count on our middle 6 destroying the opposition by enough again to prop up a crappy top line.

Only in Winnipeg could your top line center finish +19, highest of all centers, and be considered a crappy line.

 

[surixon]

Do you think Copp and Roslovic are legitimate 2Cs...neither of them have led teams to the playoffs in that role? Copp got lucky to centre Panarin and Strome for a stretch. But I remember there being a good discussion on here about his potential to centre Laine and Ehlers when Little couldn't do it, and most people believed he wasn't good enough.

Realistically looking back at the 2020 season it's a miracle that team was even in competition for a playoff spot. Eakin didn't pan out, and I think it was Copp who replace Scheif after game 1, but if it wasn't for Wheeler's brief work in the middle, I don't think the Jets ever get Dylan De Melo as an addition to the team, so that's a win.

Stastny as 2C got the Jets to the playoffs. Dubois as 2C was 1 for 2, and out the door so fast the year he did, we couldn't say goodbye, so I'll take that trade.

And here we are. You could be right on the future based on the past, but I hope the winds have changed.

I guess my point is the org has wasted a lot of assets on mediocre options to patch the hole. Do I think Copp and Roslovic are legit 2C's on a contender, no I don't. But outside of Dubois we have been wasting assets on vets that didn't meet that criteria either. We would have gained more as an org keeping those assets and going with in house options that weren't any worse then the vets we brought in. That's where I'm guestioning this orgs ability to properly assess center talent and to develop it. Yeah Copp wouldn't have been my first choice but he would have been miles better the Eakins for crying out loud and likely comparable to 35 plus year old Stastny.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maybe but Perfetti I think was always seen as more likely to be a winger because his skating wasn't top notch...Lundell would have been the centre pick in the spot the Jets were in... Lucius I believe has been developed as a centre the whole way, you can't predict injuries, maybe with better DNA testing you could, but let's not go there...Lambert has stayed in the middle through his development, as far as I know. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jets wanted Mc Groarty to take centre reps in the A, to grow into that role...Another one you couldn't predict. So last time the Jets traded a 1st for a centre before Monahan was 2019 , and the guys that were drafted in Heinola's range were Tomasino and Mc Michael, not sure that's the answer. 2017 I suppose the Jets missed out on Suzuki or Josh Norris. Hard to say Laine, Connor and Ehlers weren't good picks.

I think it is interesting to consider Jets if they had Lundell and Ceulemans instead of Perfetti and Lucius. I think those would have been the most likely picks if Jets had been drafting for position.

An argument could be made at this point that we would be better off. But would that hold true in another couple of years? Not if Lucius recovers from his injury bug and Ceulemans busts or tops out at 3rd pair. If I was betting real money though, I would bet on Lucius busting and Ceulemans becoming a 2nd pair RHD as more likely. Still too soon to judge with any certainty. Could go either way.

 

[surixon]

Only in Winnipeg could your top line center finish +19, highest of all centers, and be considered a crappy line.

I'm talking about the KC - Scheifele combo which was even in terms of goal differential, but got crushed with a 44 XGF%. That plus 19 as you aptly pointed out came with Ehlers on his line, hence my point that one of him or Cole should be replacing Connor there.

 

[voyageur]

I'm talking about the KC - Scheifele combo which was even in terms of goal differential, but got crushed with a 44 XGF%. That plus 19 as you aptly pointed out came with Ehlers on his line, hence my point that one of him or Cole should be replacing Connor there.

Interesting. I know Scheif and KC had a brutal stretch where they were - alot. That was after the Monahan trade. Obviously judging by the difference in +/- between Vilardi and Connor, there was a period when Vilardi was pulling that line in the right direction. I guess that was with Ehlers, and Connor out of the lineup. But if my eyesight still works KC and Perfetti are a good winger combination?

 

[surixon]

Interesting. I know Scheif and KC had a brutal stretch where they were - alot. That was after the Monahan trade. Obviously judging by the difference in +/- between Vilardi and Connor, there was a period when Vilardi was pulling that line in the right direction. I guess that was with Ehlers, and Connor out of the lineup. But if my eyesight still works KC and Perfetti are a good winger combination?

Yeah the last two years here are the results:

KC and Mark -4 goal differential with a 46.58 XGF%

Perfetti and Mark +11 goal differential with a 51.66 XGF

Fly and Mark + 15 goal differential with a 53.16 XGF.

I mean clearly two of the combos are light years more impactful then the go to combo.

For the record Cole with KC the last two years is a +2 goal differential and a 64 XGF%

To me it's a clear win win swapping Nik for KC as both duos are excellent.

 

[Buffdog]

Yeah the last two years here are the results:

KC and Mark -4 goal differential with a 46.58 XGF%

Perfetti and Mark +11 goal differential with a 51.66 XGF

Fly and Mark + 15 goal differential with a 53.16 XGF.

I mean clearly two of the combos are light years more impactful then the go to combo.

For the record Cole with KC the last two years is a +2 goal differential and a 64 XGF%

To me it's a clear win win swapping Nik for KC as both duos are excellent.

What is Ehlers goal differential and xGF% away from Schief those years?

 

[surixon]

What is Ehlers goal differential and xGF% away from Schief those years?

+20 and 55 XGF%

 

[Buffdog]

+20 and 55 XGF%

So I'll say it for the 1000th time...

I think that the org thinks that Ehlers does well enough away from Schief that the "top two" lines are better balanced the way they are

In other words, putting Ehlers on a line with Schief makes that line better, but makes the "second" line "more worse" lol

 

[surixon]

So I'll say it for the 1000th time...

I think that the org thinks that Ehlers does well enough away from Schief that the "top two" lines are better balanced the way they are

In other words, putting Ehlers on a line with Schief makes that line better, but makes the "second" line "more worse" lol

Except last year the second line of Perfetti, Name and Iafallo crushed it better then when Ehlers was on it while Fly was on the top line. So we actually had both of our top two lines perform better.

Perfetti showed he could drive a good second line last year. There is no reason to purposefully stack the deck against the first line because you feel you need to prop the second.

 

[KingBogo]

Except last year the second line of Perfetti, Name and Iafallo crushed it better then when Ehlers was on it while Fly was on the top line. So we actually had both of our top two lines perform better.

Perfetti showed he could drive a good second line last year. There is no reason to purposefully stack the deck against the first line because you feel you need to prop the second.

Let’s not forget that Perfetti spent the last chunk of the season bouncing between the 4th line and the PB. I think Arniel will give him more rope than Bones but I don’t think they will be expecting him to drive one of the top 6 lines. Arniel talked of liking him with Ehlers.

 

[surixon]

Let’s not forget that Perfetti spent the last chunk of the season bouncing between the 4th line and the PB. I think Arniel will give him more rope than Bones but I don’t think they will be expecting him to drive one of the top 6 lines. Arniel talked of liking him with Ehlers.

Sure. But I expect more consistency from him and he showed he could do it over a half a season stretch.

That gives the team more flexibility knowing they don't need Fly to drive a second scoring line.

I expect politics to result in the KC/Mark/Vilardi line to start the year, but they shouldn't be married to it of the results aren't there as they haven't been for a while now.

 

[KingBogo]

Sure. But I expect more consistency from him and he showed he could do it over a half a season stretch.

That gives the team more flexibility knowing they don't need Fly to drive a second scoring line.

I expect politics to result in the KC/Mark/Vilardi line to start the year, but they shouldn't be married to it of the results aren't there as they haven't been for a while now.

Actually I’d be very open to a Perfetti Scheifele Ehlers line. I just don’t see Perfetti as being the line driver, but more of a play maker that takes advantage of the open space created by a true line driver like Ehlers.

 

[DRW204]

Only in Winnipeg could your top line center finish +19, highest of all centers, and be considered a crappy line.

Like 80-90% of the + in net goals is from with Ehlers' inclusion on the top line.

 

[voyageur]

Like 80-90% of the + in net goals is from with Ehlers' inclusion on the top line.

seems like they had a good stretch, whereas 55-81 had a bad one, particularly without Vilardi?

 

[DRW204]

seems like they had a good stretch, whereas 55-81 had a bad one, particularly without Vilardi?

You can look at the lines goals either on natural stat trick or money puck.